THE STATS DON’T LIE: Coll can’t score vs finals-calibre teams

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Scodog10

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#26
For mine I’m glad this came from the supporter group rather than someone who’s actually paid to analyse the game because, and this will be mindblowing, good teams are hard to score against. It’s why they’re good. Using our numbers in isolation also only tells half the story without a comparison to the rest of the league. The thread is pretty pointless currently, IMO.

For me there’s no clear answer as to why we sometimes struggle to put teams away other than it not being about talent. For instance last night Grundy x 2, Pendles, Treloar and Phillips all burned relatively straight forward SOG. That’s without considering the opportunities that weren’t even converted to SOG. IMO, the lack of a consistent big KPF hurts because Cox remains too unreliable. Aside from that we’re around the mark.
 

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JB1975

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#28
We’ve already got one, he’s being played down back though.

I’m still burning that sier hasn’t played. The club needs to get him on the right page and into the middle.
We need to stop lamenting the fact that Moore is now a defender. Just looking at last night, Geelong would have been shooting for percentage by the third quarter if Moore wasn't manning the fort back there.

The role suits him, and we need him there.
 
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magpies42

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#29
I borrowed this from Nick’s Collingwood forum:

We really struggle to kick goals against the good (finals-calibre) teams. We just don’t have the size up forward or the composure through wing-to-F50 to either make something out of nothing or capitalise on our half chances, because the opposition is too good to allow us to fumble our way to a goal like the lesser teams. Here are our last 13 games vs finals teams:

2018
Haw 9.13.67 (L)
GWS 12.7.79 (L)
Rich 10.10.70 (L)
Geel 5.15.45 (L)
Melb 20.13.133 (W)
Rich 9.13.67 (L)
WC 12.5.77 (L)
Syd 10.11.71 (L)
—————
WC 10.10.70 (L)
GWS 9.15.69 (W)
Rich 15.7.97 (W)
WC 11.8.74 (L)


2019
Geel 9.11.65 (L)


Over the past 13 games vs finals calibre teams, Collingwood has averaged:

Goals: 10.8
Behinds: 9.1
Score: 74.2
( Scoring Shots: 19.9 )


Take out the anomaly that was the destroyation of Melbourne on QB, and it looks like this:

Goals: 10.1
Behinds: 8.8
Score: 69.1
( Scoring Shots: 18.
8 )

THAT’S SOME DAMN UGLY READING!

It’s probably worth considering this evidence before making any further outlandish 30+ winning margin predictions vs the ‘good’ sides.

In summary...we’re in a bit of spot of bother this season considering our draw.

Something has to shange, but I don’t know what that is, because tonight was more of the same ‘deer in headlights panic football’ vs another good team when the goals are within sight.

Bucks and players have their work cut out.
We have had serious injury problems, so not all together surprising.

The past doesn’t always reflect the future and I expect a young team to improve.

We apply a lot of pressure so I suspect our opponents also score less.

The competition is very even, so there is much between the teams you’ve listed and the ones that just miss out on finals.
 

esc0bar

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#31
No injuries last night! Good run on the track coming off a short break. Skill horrendous, conditions didn’t help. We’ll bounce back. Get Adams and WHE back in for Brown and Aish, possibly Greenwood / Sier for Mayne and we’re a 4 goal better side.

It hurt to lose last night but Geelong took their chances. Nothing to do with stats and scoring problems against opposition we were just rusty. I don’t think Geelong will make the 8 this year, we just played like ****.
 

spartan-magpie

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#32
We need to stop lamenting the fact that Moore is now a defender. Just looking at last night, Geelong would have been shooting for percentage by the third quarter if Moore wasn't manning the fort back there.

The role suits him, and we need him there.

He’s replaceable down back. Once dunne returns we have a surplus of tall backs. Too many interceptors and no one who had Moore’s skill set up toward.

Even Buckley has said Moore playing down back isn’t a permanent thing. We need to kick goals more so than stopping them.
 

PhiloBeddoe

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#33
**** yeah! Worst coach we every had. Despite what these muppets say, 2018 on the MCG was the most UNLOSABLE GF in Collingwood history. It’s insane pies fans sit back and swallow the mediocrity simply cause Eddie tells us too.

Adam Simpson out coaching a Collingwood coach... Seriously.... Adam ******* Simpson got his midfield to dominate Collingwoods A+ Grade midfield on GF day...

"At what point would have Matthews, Malthouse or Millane or Banks or Heath Shaw or the Browns allowed a mid fielder all alone on HFF to take a mark?"

Never ******* happened cause in red time ya gotta be accountable. No ******* chance we win a flag under Nathan
Unlosable?
Have 77, 81 and 2010 GF1 escaped your attention or are you just full of ****?
 

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domus

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#37
**** yeah! Worst coach we every had. Despite what these muppets say, 2018 on the MCG was the most UNLOSABLE GF in Collingwood history. It’s insane pies fans sit back and swallow the mediocrity simply cause Eddie tells us too.

Adam Simpson out coaching a Collingwood coach... Seriously.... Adam ******* Simpson got his midfield to dominate Collingwoods A+ Grade midfield on GF day...

At what point would have Matthews, Malthouse or Millane or Banks or Heath Shaw or the Browns allowed a mid fielder all alone on HFF to take a mark?

Never ******* happened cause in red time ya gotta be accountable. No ******* chance we win a flag under Nathan
:oops::drunk::D
 

anshell

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#41
I think we can score against finals calibre teams,just not enough.The thing that really sticks out in those stats is that when Cox has a breakout game,as he did in the Queen's Birthday game and the Preliminary final,we do kick big scores and we do win easily.Unfortunately Cox doesn't do it enough,and when he struggles the team struggles to kick a big score.It just highlights how we need a really strong key forward who can impose himself on the game.Damn shame we didn't get Lynch,he would have been a perfect fit for us.
 

Quicky

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#42
For mine I’m glad this came from the supporter group rather than someone who’s actually paid to analyse the game because, and this will be mindblowing, good teams are hard to score against. It’s why they’re good. Using our numbers in isolation also only tells half the story without a comparison to the rest of the league. The thread is pretty pointless currently, IMO.

For me there’s no clear answer as to why we sometimes struggle to put teams away other than it not being about talent. For instance last night Grundy x 2, Pendles, Treloar and Phillips all burned relatively straight forward SOG. That’s without considering the opportunities that weren’t even converted to SOG. IMO, the lack of a consistent big KPF hurts because Cox remains too unreliable. Aside from that we’re around the mark.
Spot on. We're hard to score against too. Last night was very much about missed opportunities in front of goal. In addition to the ones you mention I can remember 1 more from Phillips and 1 from De Goey. Bury 2 of those 7 and we win.

On your comment about key forwards what do we do to fix that from a list management perspective?
 

Scodog10

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#43
Spot on. We're hard to score against too. Last night was very much about missed opportunities in front of goal. In addition to the ones you mention I can remember 1 more from Phillips and 1 from De Goey. Bury 2 of those 7 and we win.

On your comment about key forwards what do we do to fix that from a list management perspective?
Invent time travel and get in ahead of Richmond on Lynch? Take Naughton, Fogarty or Allen over Stephenson? In all seriousness the only realistic solutions I have are to turn our attention to Cameron post 2020 or trade out a mid to move up the 2019 draft and neither helps us right now. It remains the only significant hole in our list build and has for five years since we drafted Moore.

The more immediate issue we now have is that Pendles time as a permanent mid is coming to an end and his replacement didn’t play on Friday night (Sier or T Brown) which will be a growing concern of mine the longer one of those two is outside the best 22. Given the major investments we keep making in mids if we aren’t dominant through there we won’t score.

For the sake of clarity my concerns around Pendles stem from his ability to spread on defence. When the ball is in dispute or our possession he’s as good as ever, but once the opposition has it his lack of pace is really beginning to show because he couldn’t go with the likes of Parfitt, Kelly and Dangerfield once Geelong won possession.
 

Gaben

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#44
Our two key forwards are an American that's probably had one genuinely great game in his career and a VFL CHB. Hardly surprising that we struggle against the teams with the best defences.

Elliot will make a massive difference though. A consistent JDG will too but he needs to stop drinking his own bathwater for that to happen.
 

Help My Club

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#45
Interesting stats over a reasonable time frame.

Might be something in it for the coaching staff to look at and learn from though you would think that they are already fully aware.

If there is something in this, then the so called tougher draw will likely reinforce this pattern.

Must say the last quarter against Geelong looked, smelt and felt like the last quarter against WC in the GF 2018. You just sensed we were going to get pipped at the post.
 

ColinMochrie

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#46
Jesus Christ, this board is crazy.

It's been 1 round, where basically every favourite has lost (apart from Richmond but still looked very rusty), and we are already sacking the coach.

We didn't play our best, that's it. Geelong will probably be playing finals.

We all need to calm down and just wait and see what happens.

And can we ******* move on from Mick Malthouse getting dropped already! It's madness. It's 8 years ago, just support the club. Buckley is the coach and will be for the next 2 years.

Every loss and he is getting sacked. Surely Bucks has improved and deserves more than one bad week.

Some people on this board seem to hate the club more than the opposition.
 
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#47
Jesus Christ, this board is crazy.

It's been 1 round, where basically every favourite has lost (apart from Richmond but still looked very rusty), and we are already sacking the coach.

We didn't play our best, that's it. Geelong will probably be playing finals.

We all need to calm down and just wait and see what happens.

And can we ******* move on from Mick Malthouse getting dropped already! It's madness. It's 8 years ago, just support the club. Buckley is the coach and will be for the next 2 years.

Every loss and he is getting sacked. Surely Bucks has improved and deserves more than one bad week.

Some people on this board seem to hate the club more than the opposition.
Your last line is very telling:
  • Some people on this board seem to hate the club more than the opposition.
The whole psychology of self loathing is fascinating in its way.
It’s almost as if hating what they purport to support helps them get through their own funk.

(Ofcourse a few might not even barrack for Collingwood. So they are there to taunt supporters.)

Interesting post by you.
 

Dxmxgxd

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#48
I called that result days out. Every time we play Geelong same story. They roll back keep there key defenders deep. Force us to kick long and dump the ball inside 50. Get outpointed in the air. Scott outcoaches Buckley every time. Hawthorn do the same thing. I have said all off season my biggest concern is that 2018 was a false dawn. I hope I am wrong. We will find out in the next month.
 

jmac70

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#49
I called that result days out. Every time we play Geelong same story. They roll back keep there key defenders deep. Force us to kick long and dump the ball inside 50. Get outpointed in the air. Scott outcoaches Buckley every time. Hawthorn do the same thing. I have said all off season my biggest concern is that 2018 was a false dawn. I hope I am wrong. We will find out in the next month.
I’ve never heard of an entire season being a false dawn before.
 

Help My Club

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#50
I called that result days out. Every time we play Geelong same story. They roll back keep there key defenders deep. Force us to kick long and dump the ball inside 50. Get outpointed in the air. Scott outcoaches Buckley every time. Hawthorn do the same thing. I have said all off season my biggest concern is that 2018 was a false dawn. I hope I am wrong. We will find out in the next month.
False Dawn.

One out of the box.

Time will tell very quickly. If it is, then where are we as a club? We needed to seize the moment. We didn't. Then 2019 would have been irrelevant. But now 2109 will be very telling, one way or the other. I think it's a genuine 50/50.
 
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