THE STATS DON’T LIE: Coll can’t score vs finals-calibre teams

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jmac70

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False Dawn.

One out of the box.

Time will tell very quickly. If it is, then where are we as a club? We needed to seize the moment. We didn't. Then 2019 would have been irrelevant. But now 2109 will be very telling, one way or the other. I think it's a genuine 50/50.
So you are saying we will make the grand final. That’s good to hear.
 

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foreigner

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Chill guys ... last year we didn't expect to make the GF, most of us we happy with 8-12. Yet, we came within a kick of beating the no 2 team after beating the no 1 team the previous week. Let's compare stats at the end of this season.
 

davywap

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I borrowed this from Nick’s Collingwood forum:

We really struggle to kick goals against the good (finals-calibre) teams. We just don’t have the size up forward or the composure through wing-to-F50 to either make something out of nothing or capitalise on our half chances, because the opposition is too good to allow us to fumble our way to a goal like the lesser teams. Here are our last 13 games vs finals teams:

2018
Haw 9.13.67 (L)
GWS 12.7.79 (L)
Rich 10.10.70 (L)
Geel 5.15.45 (L)
Melb 20.13.133 (W)
Rich 9.13.67 (L)
WC 12.5.77 (L)
Syd 10.11.71 (L)
—————
WC 10.10.70 (L)
GWS 9.15.69 (W)
Rich 15.7.97 (W)
WC 11.8.74 (L)


2019
Geel 9.11.65 (L)


Over the past 13 games vs finals calibre teams, Collingwood has averaged:

Goals: 10.8
Behinds: 9.1
Score: 74.2
( Scoring Shots: 19.9 )


Take out the anomaly that was the destroyation of Melbourne on QB, and it looks like this:

Goals: 10.1
Behinds: 8.8
Score: 69.1
( Scoring Shots: 18.
8 )

THAT’S SOME DAMN UGLY READING!

It’s probably worth considering this evidence before making any further outlandish 30+ winning margin predictions vs the ‘good’ sides.

In summary...we’re in a bit of spot of bother this season considering our draw.

Something has to shange, but I don’t know what that is, because tonight was more of the same ‘deer in headlights panic football’ vs another good team when the goals are within sight.

Bucks and players have their work cut out.
Wow they're some damning statistics, if you don't consider ANYTHING ELSE that is.

The stat I prefer is that despite 12 of those 13 scores, we were 6 points away from a premiership.
 

domin8tors

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On the flipside to this argument... our last ten "points against" versus finals teams:

Geel 9.12.66 (L)
Melb 14.7.91 (W)
Rich 15.12.102 (L)
WC 16.9.105 (L)
Syd 11.7.73 (L)
WC 12.14.86 (L)
GWS 9.5.59 (W)
Rich 8.10.58 (W)
WC 11.13.75 (L)
Geel 10.12.72 (L)

So we've only conceded 100 points twice (and both times by less than a goal) for an average of 78.7 points against. As opposed to an average of 76.8 points for over the same period.

Less than two points difference.

It's almost as if the better teams structure up more defensively, with more competent defensive players, making for a lower scoring match for both sides?

I'd love it if we could kick away more against better sides, don't get me wrong, and maybe we need to learn more efficiency in attack. But let's be real. It's not like a finals side has blown us out of the water since maybe the Hawks or Tigers games of early 2018.

It's less a reflection of our forward line and more a reflection of how the better teams (including us) approach the tactical side of the game.
now why would you go and post such a positive thread for o_O. lol. richmond aside the other thing that has to be taken into account from last season all those teams have height in the forward line.
 

MagpieJoel

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- Since De Goey had little influence to half-time - why not send him into the middle to get some touch? Even if he doesn’t have the tank yet - surely a 5 minute spell could have be an option? Heck put Varcoe in there to try and rush it out.
a
He did. I saw De Goey in the middle for at least one centre bounce.
 

OniAu

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Make finals , perform in finals and anything can happen. Silly thread considering 2018 proves you just need to get there to give yourself a chance
 

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whiskeytown

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Great thread.

But when judging pies scores against top teams I think form has to be taken into account. The early part of 2018 we scored less... took a while to get going. Possibly the same this year. Especially with De Goey, Stephenson underdone and WHE missing
 

jackcass

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Hmmmmmm, I'd have thought that most sides generally kick less goals against quality opposition. Where are the comparisons with those other finals calibre sides? Are we better or worse than them? I'd have thought we also concede less goals against those sides. How does that compare?
 

sirlothie

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We are a much more potent side this year, even with wasted opportunities against Geelong. As good as 2018 Pies were this year we are much stronger so I wouldn't write anything into what we scored last year, let's see how it looks against top 8 sides this year. Geelong probably won't even be one of them.
 

Markfs

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Margot Robbie's Shaving Team...
I borrowed this from Nick’s Collingwood forum:

We really struggle to kick goals against the good (finals-calibre) teams. We just don’t have the size up forward or the composure through wing-to-F50 to either make something out of nothing or capitalise on our half chances, because the opposition is too good to allow us to fumble our way to a goal like the lesser teams. Here are our last 13 games vs finals teams:

2018
Haw 9.13.67 (L)
GWS 12.7.79 (L)
Rich 10.10.70 (L)
Geel 5.15.45 (L)
Melb 20.13.133 (W)
Rich 9.13.67 (L)
WC 12.5.77 (L)
Syd 10.11.71 (L)
—————
WC 10.10.70 (L)
GWS 9.15.69 (W)
Rich 15.7.97 (W)
WC 11.8.74 (L)


2019
Geel 9.11.65 (L)


Over the past 13 games vs finals calibre teams, Collingwood has averaged:

Goals: 10.8
Behinds: 9.1
Score: 74.2
( Scoring Shots: 19.9 )


Take out the anomaly that was the destroyation of Melbourne on QB, and it looks like this:

Goals: 10.1
Behinds: 8.8
Score: 69.1
( Scoring Shots: 18.
8 )

THAT’S SOME DAMN UGLY READING!

It’s probably worth considering this evidence before making any further outlandish 30+ winning margin predictions vs the ‘good’ sides.

In summary...we’re in a bit of spot of bother this season considering our draw.

Something has to shange, but I don’t know what that is, because tonight was more of the same ‘deer in headlights panic football’ vs another good team when the goals are within sight.

Bucks and players have their work cut out.
I love good arguments based on statistics. However, you seemed to have left some stats out.... the ones where other teams have played "good" sides. For example, what has WC scored over the last year or Richmond etc? Teams might actually score less against good teams because they are good teams. They might score more against bad teams because they are bad teams. It's just a theory of mine.
 

domin8tors

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chicken and egg. seriously teams didn't make the finals because we beat them. so let's take into account the 4 teams that finished 1 game out of the 8 because had they beaten us then the would have been a finals teams.

Pies 106 - Adel 58 W
Pies 101 - Ess 52 W
Pes 78 - Ess 62 W
Pies 130 - Nth 64 W
Pies 115 - Port 64 W
avg
Pies = 106
 
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