Mega Thread The Stats Thread

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Oct 16, 2011
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Perth
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One of the thread's I really enjoyed in 2011 was Grim's stats thread, and I believe it was around round 4 it made an appearance, and would love for it to come back this year, provided some really sharp contrasts in game style visible in the stats.

So hope I'm not stepping on any toes if I get the ball rolling.
I'll start with some key stats from end of 2011, and will compare with how we are tracking so far this year

Key Stats 2011

At the end of 2011 we were averaging:

  • 336 Disposals per game, of which 155 were contested, for a CP% of 46%
  • Of those 336 disposals we averaged 202 kicks to 134 handballs, for a K/H% of 1.507, which was the highest in the league.
  • Our Disposal Efficiency was 69%, which was Equal last in the competition (Hawthorn and Geelong were 75% and 74% respectively)
  • We were averaging 14 Contested marks per game, which ranked us 6th
  • However we were only averaging 11 marks inside 50 per game, giving us a ranking of 12th for this statistic.
  • As one might expect, we were highly ranked in both hit outs, Ranked 4th with an average of 43per game, and Clearences where we ranked #1, and also averaged 43 per game, 2 more than 2nd place Collingwood on 41.
  • We were ranked 4th for inside 50's averaging 54 per game, which really makes averaging 11 marks inside 50 a damning statistic.
  • Once again as you may expect with the SCG, we were also the number 1 tackling side in the competition Averaging 79 per game.
  • The next statistic shouldn't come as any great surprise, but our goal kicking efficiency was 3rd worst in the league at 48%


So how are we tracking this year by comparison you ask?

Key Stats at Round 4 2012

In 2012 we are so far averaging:

  • 351 Disposals per game, and once again 155 contested per game for a CP% of 44%
  • 200 Kicks and 151 Handballs per game for an K/H% of 1.32, now whilst I wouldn't draw too many inferences from this statistic just yet, there are some interesting implications which ill discuss later
  • Importantly our disposal efficiency has increased to 73%
  • We are averaging 12 contested marks per game, slightly less than last year.
  • Marks inside 50, have fallen to an average of 8, which may be cause for some concern
  • We are averaging 41 Hitouts per game, which is not markedly different, and 41 clearances per game
  • We are currently averaging 61 inside 50's per game once again, either saying something damning about our marks inside 50 or pointing to a different approach
  • Currently the #4 tackling side, averaging 71 per game.
  • Lastly and perhaps most importantly, our accuracy infront of goal has skyrocketed to 69%, which is #1 in the league


Implications?


Whilst we shouldn't read too much into some stats, there are 2 key ones that I would like to point out.

Longmire said that they would work hard on skills over the pre-season, and I believe the results speak for themselves, to go from 3rd last to best in goal kicking accuracy is a clear indication that something has changed.

Combine this with a leap in our disposal efficiency from last in the competition last year to being fairly respectable this year around the middle of the pack (equal to Carlton and Collingwood) and we can be fairly confident that the promised skills work has done it's job.


There is an implication in the stats across the competition that I feel is worth mentioning, and that is the shift towards kicking rather than handballing. At the end of 2011, there were 4 teams with K/HB ratios above 1.4, these were Hawthorn, Collingwood, Carlton, and Sydney.

As of round 4 2012, there are 7 clubs over 1.4, and if we discard North as being *ed (their K/HB is <1)
Then the K/HB ratio over the competition has changed on average to be 6% higher from 1.32 to 1.38 (with North included the increase is closer to 4%)
 
Interesting stuff! :thumbsu:

It would be good to see the data from the upcoming Hawks game contrasted with the rest of the season so far once it has been played of course.
 

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Nooo Stats... Reminds me of my Stat exam
 
Good work mate.

I'm hoping the disposal eff. stats aren't skewed by the poor opposition we've played so far.
 
Marks inside 50: jeez.
 
Marks inside 50: jeez.

yeah but
Lastly and perhaps most importantly, our accuracy infront of goal has skyrocketed to 69%, which is #1 in the league

Hey whatever works, stick with it. Of course it helps that Jetta has kicked 11.2, about 9 of them from point blank range.
 
how have the premiers (or the more dominant clubs) gone over the last few years gone as far as marks inside 50 gone?

In 2011 Geelong averaged 15, Hawthorn and Carlton 14 and Collingwood 13.

Interestingly West Coast also only averaged 11

So far in 2012, Hawthorn and Collingwood are both averaging 12, West Coast 13, Geelong and Essendon 14 and Carlton 15.
 
Good work mate.

I'm hoping the disposal eff. stats aren't skewed by the poor opposition we've played so far.

As Grim mentioned given it is only 4 rounds of data it is highly likely that some of the data is skewed due to our opposition, and there is a dip in our disposal efficiency for the Fremantle game, however the other 3 appear to all be in the 73 - 75% range, which appears fairly consistent.
 
Haha that's hilarious. McGlynn does it a fair bit, probably helps being under 6 foot as well.

Have brothers ever dominated a stat like that before?
 

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Just from my initial look at the comparison looks like one of our big challenges will be stopping them generating shots on goal. Whilst they have been inaccurate, they are averaging 4 more shots on goal per game, despite having played much harder competition sofar, in Coll, Geel, and WCE.

My initial thoughts in the preview thread are also backed by the stats, Hawthorns midfield are certainly not going to allow us to get away like North did last week, leading all comers for tackles.

They are also averaging 4 more marks inside 50 than us per game, along with the differential in uncontested marks, and goal assists really looks like it is going to need a strong defensive effort for our boys to not allow them to get away into space.
 
Great work Stat Men! Good reading!

According to David King's "Formula for Success" (the triad of tackles, effective disposal and contested possession), I don't think we will beat Hawthorn.

Based upon knowing the Swans... i think we might! :)
 
I don't know why I didn't put up the comparison last year. If I had the same comparison up for the semi last year the differences between the two teams would have been more stark. As J2W has said, Hawthorn's numbers are skewed because of their tough draw in playing 3 of the top sides in Collingwood, Geelong and West Coast. I still firmly believe that they will very much work to the same game plan in their uncontested possessions maintained by their accurate kicking.
 
I still firmly believe that they will very much work to the same game plan in their uncontested possessions maintained by their accurate kicking.

I'd agree, 100%, and if you look at the stats, in both games Hawthorn lost, their uncontested possession dropped, so something we will really need to be hot on is pressure, and not letting players get free.
 
In 2011 Geelong averaged 15, Hawthorn and Carlton 14 and Collingwood 13.

Interestingly West Coast also only averaged 11

So far in 2012, Hawthorn and Collingwood are both averaging 12, West Coast 13, Geelong and Essendon 14 and Carlton 15.

cheers. guess we weren't too far off the pace last year. but well back this year although we seem to be hitting the scoreboard a bit better. but if we can bump it up, it might turn a close loss into a close win later on which could be crucial in securing a top 4 spot.
 
Comparison


Some interesting comparisons:
- Both teams love play contested footy (1st v 2nd)
- Both are attacking with plenty of inside 50s (equal 4th)
- BUT while we are the most accurate in our goalkicking (1st), they are the 2nd worst (17th)
 

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