Mega Thread The Stats Thread

[grimlock]

Adelaide summary.

Sloane and Dangerfield are much improved from last year.

 

[grimlock]

Sydney summary.

Random stat #1: AJ has more bounces than Jetta.
Random stat #2: Bird is leading the tackle count for the AFL.

 

[DeadlyAkkuret]

Bird has improved so much, and he was pretty good last year. Does anyone else think he's deceptively quick? He showed some dash against Hawthorn on Sunday.

 

[grimlock]

Also need to add that Adelaide have the best clearance differential (+7.4) and ruck contests won (54.5%) in the league. Swans are 9th (0.6) and 12th (46.7%) respectively.

Sam Jacobs looms as a big challenge to Seaby.

 

[GotTheGoodes]

I just can't believe our goal kicking efficiency this year (so far).... Outstanding turn around and something we have openly indicated need to change from last year. Given the differential in tackles and rebound 50s you'd like to hope, combined with a more accurate attack, we're able to focus on the quick turnover and rebound this game.

Birdy is blitzing it too... One of those players you notice just after he's torn a game to shreds as opposed to while he's doing it IMO. Hopefully he keeps it up.

 

[scottwade]

Thanks grim, interesting reading again.

Only 5 rounds in, but the stats indicate Adelaide is playing a more contested style of footy under Sanderson. They are also kicking the ball more, handballing less and moving the ball quickly forward appears to be more important than hitting up targets.

2012 Contested possessions 2nd (2011 15th), clearances, up to 5th from 15th.
They are also kicking the ball more, although overall disposals remain pretty much the same. But curiously marks are down from 6th (2011) to 11th (2012) and their average contested marks are down from 13 per game to 10. They are getting the ball inside 50 a lot more (57 compared to 50 in 2012) and up from 11th to 4th in that category.

Their tackling has improved compared with other teams (2nd worst per game in 2011) but the actual figure (63) remains the same.

 

[Tippett2Goal]

Also need to add that Adelaide have the best clearance differential (+7.4) and ruck contests won (54.5%) in the league. Swans are 9th (0.6) and 12th (46.7%) respectively.

Sam Jacobs looms as a big challenge to Seaby.

however much like last week with hawthorns hard draw skewing stats, adelaides stats are heavily skewed by their easy draw

 

[Blacky]

Bird has improved so much, and he was pretty good last year. Does anyone else think he's deceptively quick? He showed some dash against Hawthorn on Sunday.

I call him Candyman, because he tries to take so many blokes on.
Moreso in previous seasons.

 

[grimlock]

Sydney summary

Richmond summary


Comparison

 

[grimlock]

Very much a battle of differing styles, contested v uncontested.

 

[scottwade]

Very much a battle of differing styles, contested v uncontested.

Thanks grim.

Hopefully the matches against North & Hawthorn will hold us in good stead for the Richmond style of play.

Key stats for me are that the Tigers are handballing more this year (3rd in the comp in handballs) and are 2nd in uncontested possessions. Also their disposal efficiency is top notch @75% (#1 in the AFL).

I thought the keys in the games I mentioned were denying the ball carrier time and space, in the North game and closing down options, in the Hawthorn match up.

Our spread from the contest is critical. Moreso from a defensive, rather than offensive strategy. When we are tuned in we do it well.

If we execute our strengths, such as contested possession and limit their effectiveness with the ball I think we should win this game.

 

[grimlock]

Melbourne summary

Sydney summary

Comparison


No doubt we'll get more in-depth analysis from our resident bean counter scottwade, but quickly from my perpsective:

Both teams play a highly contested possession game, occupying the number 1 and 2 rankings of the contested possession rate table and the bottom 2 places of the disposal rankings. However, Melbourne are way off the disposals numbers of the Swans, averaging close to 50 possessions less than the Swans and dead last in clearances as well. They basically cannot get enough of the Sherrin, and it's very hard to win many games of football if you don't have it on you.

This is illustrated by the fact that the Dees have only one players averaging over 20 disposals a game (Nathan Jones 21.9) while the Swans have 5 (JPK, McVeigh, Parker, Jack and Hanners). They have only won the possession count in one of their games this year and average 106 less possessions per game than their opposition. Very ugly reading indeed!

Melbourne like playing a very direct style, they love to kick the ball more than they handball and they don't waste too many possessions by chipping it sideways and back, perhaps to their detriment.

On an individual level, Mitch Clark has been a relevation for them up forward. Despite criticism that he was better suited to being a ruckman than a key forward after some wasted years in Brisbane, Clark has fought off the critics with some super performances feeding off some not so great delivery from his midfield. He leads the goalkicking, contested marks, marks and inside 50 charts as well as being third in goal assists.

Jeremy Howe has proved an effective foil, with his high flying antics proving productive around the goals. However, the Demons haven't produced many goals from their midfielders struggling to produce a good spread of goalkickers, being heavily reliant on the likes of Clark, Howe, Bate, and Aaron Davey for their goals. The Swans are the converse with key forward Sam Reid goalless in his past 3 games and the resting ruckman LRT/White combining for a duck's egg in the past 2 as well. It has fallen to the likes of Jetta, Kennedy, O'Keefe, Bolton and Bird who have 45 goals between them.

Their midfield is led by Brent Moloney who is their leading clearance player, and by Jordie McKenzie who is a very effective run-with player. James Magner has proved a useful mature age recruit, starting off his AFL career well but lately has been used in defensive roles - last week even finding himself playing as a defensive forward on the Hawks' Brent Guerra. Co-captain Jack Trengove has been down on his form but being a high draft pick just a few years ago will need to be carefully watched by the Swans as well.

In defence, James Frawley always has his hands full with the amount of ball coming in his way, but he always competes despite being assigned with some of the toughest jobs as a key defender. Not only does he battle the top forwards of the competition, he provides good rebound from the Demons defence and whoever is matched up against him on Saturday will have to keep this in mind. The other 2 tall defenders in Colin Garland and Jared Rivers are underrated too and the trio form a solid unit. The other co-captain Jack Grimes also finds plenty of the ball despite playing in defence, always finding space in the back half.

 

[grimlock]

And for those still indulging in a bit of self-flagellation, here are the stats from the last game. Not many wins for the Swans.

 

[grimlock]

For comparison, Melbourne's game against Hawthorn

 

[scottwade]

Thanks for the stats again grim.
Enjoyed reading the analysis as well.

 

[grimlock]

Interestingly, the numbers don't look that bad for Melbourne compared to some of their other games. Perhaps it's a reflection of the fact that we aren't a high possession team either.

Most pleasing from out point of view was 17 marks inside 50, the highest of the season, 71 inside 50s, equal 1st with the GWS game

 

[grimlock]

St Kilda summary


Sydney summary


Comparison


St Kilda's last game against West Coast

 

[grimlock]

So get this: The Swans are #1 inside 50s, #1 in goalkicking accuracy but only #12 in marks inside 50 and #5 in goals. If only we could hit some targets inside 50 !

The other stat that stands out to me is the fact that Koschitzke has kicked 15 straight so far this year!

St Kilda number 1 in bounces, they like to move the ball quickly and through the middle. One of their most improved players Jack Steven is the #4 ranked bouncer in the competition.

 

[Riders of Rohan]

Cheers again Grim much appreciated. Surprising to see the saints K:H ratio is so far above ours. Thought we kicked it more than any other team.

That inside 50 stat is disturbing, the reason we're number 1 is probably due to us just booting it long instead of looking for a target short. Really need to improve there.

 

[grimlock]

Last round review

Swans v Saints



Dogs v Cats

 

[grimlock]

Preview

Swans and Dogs comparison


Swans summary


Dogs summary




More in-depth analysis tomorrow but a cursory glance at the comparison reveals that the Dogs play a similar style and have similar weaknesses to us. We both have malfunctioning forward lines. While we struggle in converting our high number of inside 50s into shots on goal, we are very accurate in our conversion when we do get a shot which keeps us up relatively high in scoring efficiency.

In contrast, the Dogs struggle with their conversion and hence they are in the bottom 4 in most of the forward efficiency stats. It hasn't helped that there has been a revolving door amongst their young forwards with Liam Jones (8 games), Jordan Roughead (8 games), Jarrad Grant (7 games), Ayce Cordy (5 games), Tory Dickson (5 games), Zeph Skinner (2 games) being utilised throughout the season.

Individually, Luke Dahlhaus is the one forward to look out for. He leads the club in assists and is 2nd in goal assists despite not ranking in the top 5 for disposals. The young father-son picks Tom Liberatore and Mitch Wallis are 2nd and 4th respectively in clearances for the club and are also both in the top 5 in tackles, illustrating the inside nature of their game. We don't have any hitout to advantage stats available but during the week, AFL Insider highlighted the improvement in Will Minson's game and how he has been able to use his soft hands to direct the ball to the advantage of his onballers.

In defence, Robert Murphy and Ryan Hargrave receive a lot of uncontested possession from their teammates due to their accurate disposal and ability to transition the play from their back half to their forward half. These 2 must be monitored closely to minimise the damage on the scoreboard.

 

[scottwade]

In defence, Robert Murphy and Ryan Hargrave receive a lot of uncontested possession from their teammates due to their accurate disposal and ability to transition the play from their back half to their forward half. These 2 must be monitored closely to minimise the damage on the scoreboard.

Thanks for the stats again grim.

I'd be fascinated to know our tackles inside 50 stat.
I reckon it would be one of the lowest in the competition, particularly bearing in mind we are 3rd overall for I50 entries.
It strikes me as yet another structural issue we need to address.
Of our forwards (without Rohan) only McGlynn is a real pressure player and it allows far too much easy possession for the opposition. Although at least TDL looks as if he's upped his workrate in that regard. Mind you tackling and fwd pressure is a bit difficult from the subs bench.

Given the weather forecast for tomorrow I wouldn't mind 3 smalls starting up fwd, say McGlynn, TDL & Bird and if we aren't marking it at least lock the ball in and of course crumb off packs as well. ROK as a big bodied medium would also be useful.

 

[grimlock]

Last round review

Swans v Dogs

Statistically best game for the Swans in many categories including

• kicks, handballs and disposals
• uncontested possessions
• clearances
• bounces
• conceded possessions
• conceded marks
• conceded tackles
• conceded goals

Individually, Rhyce Shaw had 10 bounces for the game which doubled his tally for the season. Kieren Jack continued his hot form with 34 disposals, 10 clearances 7 inside 50s, 5 tackles, 2 goal assists and 2 goals.

Bombers v Demons


Interesting to note that the Bombers lost a lot of categories but still managed a very high number of inside 50s (64) but could only convert less than 10% of these into goals.

 

[grimlock]

Sydney v Essendon preview

Sydney

Essendon

• Bombers prefer to kick the ball rather than handball their way out of trouble.
• Crameri is their most dangerous forward with 43 shots on goal and number 1 goal assists. It will be interesting to see who takes him as the Bombers also have tall options in Hurley, Ryder/Bellchambers and possibly Carlisle to cover as well. Richards seems to be a good matchup for Crameri but may be needed for those talls.

Comparison

• Number 1 and 2 sides in inside 50s and both relatively efficient in goals per disposal.

 

[grimlock]

Had a closer look at the defensive stats which reveals that Essendon's defence has very similar numbers to ours. Ours may be that little bit better but there's not much in it.