Mega Thread The Stats Thread

[grimlock]

Sydney v St Kilda review

51 tackles was the lowest in a match for the Swans this season.

Gold Coast v Brisbane review

 

[SM]

Lol at the tackles discrepancy.

 

[grimlock]

 

[grimlock]

 

[grimlock]

 

[grimlock]

 

[grimlock]

 

[grimlock]

The Dogs have the worst forward conversion in the comp being last in Inside 50s to goals ratio; the Swans have the stingiest defence in being first in restricting opposition Inside 50s to goals ratio.
The Dogs also have the worst goalkicking accuracy, Swans are 2nd.
Not that their defence is any better, they've conceded the 4th most goals and are dead last in restricting opposition Inside 50s to goals ratio.
The strength of the Dogs lies with their midfield, they are relatively high in possession, clearances, hitouts and contested possessions.

Random prediction: Bulldogs have conceded the most bounces in the competition, Rhyce Shaw has the most bounces in the competition (at 76 which is 20 more than the 2nd placed player who happens to be brother Heath). Expect Shaw to break the world record.

 

[grimlock]

HAW v GCS

SYD v WBD

 

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[grimlock]

 

[barry fu]

Well done Grime.

The 1% list is populated by backs only. This is where we miss Mummy's influence when not rucking. The shepherd you slobs, Mummy's midfield minding is critical come Swans September sojourn.

 

[grimlock]

 

[grimlock]

 

[grimlock]

• Crows love to kick the ball, having the highest K:H ratio in the comp.
• Forward line is very good. The 2 marking talls in Walker and Tippett are well known and their effectiveness is reflected in the fact the Crows are 2nd in marks isnide 50 and 4th in contested marks, but they also have a good spread in their smaller players in Callinan, Dangerfield, Porplyzia, Slaon, Vince, Johncock and Petrenko. They are the most efficient forward line in the comp in converting Inside 50s to goals (30.3%) and 2nd in disposals per goal (21.59) and have the 2nd greatest number of goals and 2nd in goal assists.
• Midfield is also elite: Swans 1st and Crows 2nd in contested possessions as has been mentioned in the media this week, but what has been left out is that Adelaide is also number 1 in conceding CP (i.e. concede the least amount of CP) which means they have easily the biggest CP differential in the comp (150.7 - 136.6 = +14.1). Sydney on the other hand concede the most CP so our CP differential isn't as high (151.4 - 149.9 = +1.5). Adelaide are also 1st in clearances (41.4) and 1st in clearance differential (+7.1). Swans 3rd (40.1) and 12th (-0.5) respectively.
• Jacobs has had the most hitouts in the comp (656) and while I don't have the hitout to advantage stats, I have read he is elite in this category as well.
• Matthew Wright very underrated but has had a fantastic year. In Adelaide: 1st in goal assists, 3rd in tackles, 4th in disposals, 4th in contested possessions.

Would go with these matchups
Reid-Talia
Walsh-Rutten
Goodes-Shaw
Pyke/Mumford-Smith
McGlynn-Reilly
Bird-Johncock

Mumford-Jacobs
Kennedy-Thompson
O'Keefe-Dangerfield
Jack-Sloane
Hannebery-Mackay
McVeigh-van Berlo

Richards-Walker
LRT-Tippett
Johnson-Porplyzia
Mattner-Wright
Smith-Callinan
Shaw-Petrenko

Jetta-Doughty
Parker-Douglas
Bolton-Vince
(Malceski)-(Riley)

 

[Leg End]

I'm interested in one stat: free kicks leading to shots at goal. I reckon we would 10:1 in the negative.

 

[grimlock]

 

[RW]

Great work with this thread Grim!

Are you familiar with the work of Bill James, the baseball writer Michael Lewis talked about in Moneyball? I haven't read any of his work myself, but he sounds like a pretty interesting guy with the way he talks about stats. For him the numbers almost have the power of language because of the story they tell. Like with the above, you can look for patterns which describe the way the Swans and Pies generally play, sort of like looking at the 'why' behind the numbers. For instance, at first glance, Collingwood would appear to be a long kicking, strong contested marking team, while we would seem to be better in close (more handballs, more contested possessions). Will be interesting to see how this plays out on Friday night...

 

[grimlock]

 

[vonn]

What's the multicollinearity between the two grim.

 

[grimlock]

What's the multicollinearity between the two grim.

Depends on the confidence interval Yvonne.

 

[vonn]

Depends on the confidence interval Yvonne.

Shit talker

 

[Bonz]

Any way you can bring up the wet weather statistics for Sydney and Hawthorn?

 

[GotTheGoodes]

I'd say if it's going to be wet our superior tackling and contested possession advantages could be very handy. Not to mention it will reduce the uncontested advantage the Hawks seem to have. Sorry to those of you who have to sit out in the thick of it but I hope it buckets down....