The Success of the Finals System

[GROTTO]

West coast losing in Round 23 to Hawthorn basically gift wrapped the flag to either Collingwood or Richmond.
I have no doubt Richmond are the best team in the comp but the finals were turned on their head once the Eagles lost that game.
We had some great finals though this year.

Good call. The only team that could have pushed the Tigers at the G on GF day, handed the flag to the Tigers/Pies the moment they lost to the Hawks.

Rioli urinating gatorade was the icing on the cake.

 

[NoobPie]

Well, once we get to finals, I'm happy for things to be a bit more cut-throat, without the "two bites of the cherry" system we currently have.

The system I proposed allows any team to make the GF, they just have to keep winning. Want a better "seeding" and better "odds"? Win more in the H&A season.

I think the broader point is that home and away season is imbalanced and so you can't guarantee that the top two teams are the best two teams (even the best two performed teams over the season)

 

[HTT]

The system I proposed prevents the top two meeting before the GF (1st plays winner of 3v6, 2nd plays winner of 4v5), and if they're not good enough and lose before then, then tough s**t, they've blown it, they're out.

Then you have a year like this year where the top 2 are clearly not the best 2. The idea of a finals series is to have the best 2 teams meet in the Grand Final and from there the winner is declared the best. If we just say the top 2 are the best 2, we might as well not bother with any of the build up, just have 1v2 play a 5 game series.

 

[Damon_3388]

I think the broader point is that home and away season is imbalanced and so you can't guarantee that the top two teams are the best two teams (even the best two performed teams over the season)

Then you have a year like this year where the top 2 are clearly not the best 2. The idea of a finals series is to have the best 2 teams meet in the Grand Final and from there the winner is declared the best. If we just say the top 2 are the best 2, we might as well not bother with any of the build up, just have 1v2 play a 5 game series.

Well if the top two aren't the best two, that will still wash out in the finals system I proposed, like it did this year. Geelong and Brisbane would just be gone after one loss, instead of getting another go at it.

 

[HTT]

Well if the top two aren't the best two, that will still wash out in the finals system I proposed, like it did this year. Geelong and Brisbane would just be gone after one loss, instead of getting another go at it.

Any time 1st and 3rd are the best two teams in it, they can not possibly play against each other in the grand final, under your system.

 

[Damon_3388]

Any time 1st and 3rd are the best two teams in it, they can not possibly play against each other in the grand final, under your system.

Well 3rd should be better across the H&A season then, to prove they really are the 1st or 2nd best.

In my system, 3rd (Richmond) would have still knocked out 1st (Geelong) either way, if they were genuinely better.

My system just makes the H&A season more meaningful for best finals seeding (doesn't guarantee you win, though), and makes the results more cut-throat.

I basically just don't like the "two bites" system we have for the top four, and prefer single elimination. If that's achieved through 1v8, 2v7, 3v6, 4v5, and so on, then so be it.

 

[NoobPie]

Well 3rd should be better across the H&A season then, to prove they really are the 1st or 2nd best.

In my system, 3rd (Richmond) would have still knocked out 1st (Geelong) either way, if they were genuinely better.

My system just makes the H&A season more meaningful for best finals seeding (doesn't guarantee you win, though), and makes the results more cut-throat.

I basically just don't like the "two bites" system we have for the top four, and prefer single elimination. If that's achieved through 1v8, 2v7, 3v6, 4v5, and so on, then so be it.

But you get that the home and away season is not balanced?

 

[Damon_3388]

But you get that the home and away season is not balanced?

It's not perfect, and probably never will be (with the number of teams, number of games, location of teams, and need for particular blockbuster and special fixtures), but the recent change to scheduling based on previous season's rankings is a step in the right direction.

I think the finals system can be improved though, by distilling it and removing the second chances. If you're good enough, you'll get to where you deserve to be.

 

[D-N-R]

I think the advantage of the week off for top 4 teams has been a little diluted with the pre-final bye.

There are basically 26 games of football in the season up until the GF.

I think the byes should be staggered equally. So, the first bye around round 8-9, the second around 17-18. Maybe they could do the fixture so teams play each other once in the first 17 games and then play their double-up opponents again in the final 5 rounds rather than playing some teams twice before you've even played some sides once.

I like the top 8. I think the balance is right but the advantage of the week off has been lost a bit.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Top of the ladder should get some kind of advantage no idea how we work that into the current system.

I like the idea of the bye being before the GF

Choice of prelim opponent maybe?

 

[My Cotchin Rules]

Richmond 2018 & every other minor premiers say hi. Richmond coped it last year after Collingwood lost their first final.

If the AFL need a finals bye, it should be the week before the GF to let the best 2 teams have that extra time to have as close to their best team as possible. Although in my opinion, they shouldn't have one at all. Have the season bye, have finals, teams who win their top 4 matches get the break, teams that lose have to gut it out.

There was literally no advantage for Geelong finishing top. Likewise there was way too big an advantage for Collingwood finishing 4th. Teams 5th to 8th shouldn't get a week off advantage at all.

 

[My Cotchin Rules]

Honestly think they should just do away with the bottom two finalists, and have a final 6. Single elimination, Top 2 get a bye first week, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5 week one.

Inb4 people go on about that one time the Dogs won it from 7th.

Agree 100% final 6 is perfect. A even top third of the comp play finals. Top 2 getting a true advantage over the rest.

 

[My Cotchin Rules]

West coast losing in Round 23 to Hawthorn basically gift wrapped the flag to either Collingwood or Richmond.
I have no doubt Richmond are the best team in the comp but the finals were turned on their head once the Eagles lost that game.
We had some great finals though this year.

You lost to Geelong?? If you were good enough you would of beaten them regardless how "lucky" Collingwood & Richmond were.

 

[00Stinger]

No finals. 1st vs 2nd in a 3 game play off series.

but wouldn't that still be a finals series?

 

[And_ROOS]

Richmond 2018 & every other minor premiers say hi. Richmond coped it last year after Collingwood lost their first final.

Yeah but Richmond have the advantage that ANY Victorian final is at their home ground, and should they make the Grand Final its at their home ground. So for the advantages they lose in everyone getting a week off, they are more than looked after. Same goes for Collingwood and Hawthorn over the last few years.

 

[Ghost Patrol]

but wouldn't that still be a finals series?

It's the vibe of it.

 

[My Cotchin Rules]

Yeah but Richmond have the advantage that ANY Victorian final is at their home ground, and should they make the Grand Final its at their home ground. So for the advantages they lose in everyone getting a week off, they are more than looked after. Same goes for Collingwood and Hawthorn over the last few years.

This was never an issue prior to 2017 especially when Geelong were winning flags. Only been an issue since the 2017 QF so I find it all irrelevant when Geelong fans & Chris Scott sook. Did we whinge last year finishing 1st & having to play Hawthorn & Collingwood while WC had pure home ground advantages in their corresponding finals games? We weren't good enough and Pies spanked us fair & square. Richmond/Pies/Hawks are benifitied that the GF is at the MCG but we have to make it to have it & thats only been twice in 38 years for Richmond! Geelong have a huge advantage during the season with your 9 pure home games at that boutique ground & hence why make finals every year. It's all swings & roundabouts & if I had a option between having a finals advantage over a home away advantage I'd 100% take the home & away one as i'd rather make finals consistently than be s**t like we were and Carlton are now for 20+ years.

 

[____]

The AFL making the draw harder depending on your previous year results means that the ladder at the end of the home and away is not as accurate as it used to be. Brisbane were a good side but should not have been top 2.

Also now that we have an 18 team comp, there is more randomness in the top 2 than previous eras with 10 or 12 teams.

Yep, us and Geelong were clearly NOT the best two teams in the comp. I was telling people after round 23 it would almost certainly be a Richmond v Collingwood GF (and I would likely have been right if De Goey had not been injured)

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

It does seem interesting that more often than not, the final system is not working as intended for the top 2 teams.

It’s intent isn’t to get the top 2 teams through. It’s intent is to give them an advantage over the the rest of the top 8 but still let the teams slug it out to determine who’s best on the day.

It hasn’t failed at all

 

[Frank Bunn]

It's not perfect, and probably never will be (with the number of teams, number of games, location of teams, and need for particular blockbuster and special fixtures), but the recent change to scheduling based on previous season's rankings is a step in the right direction.

I would have thought that aiming for a perfect system should come first ie a fair system that rewards the best team over the course of a season. Crazy I know.

Then you work out the number of teams, the number of games, a fair draw etc. Blockbusters and special fixtures reflect that the goal of the AFL is about revenue and 'growing the business', not running a fair sporting competition.

I think the finals system can be improved though, by distilling it and removing the second chances. If you're good enough, you'll get to where you deserve to be.

With the addition of the new teams we have moved even further away from a fair draw.

The finals system is a 3 or 4 game knock out tournament after a long season. It introduces even more randomness after an uneven draw. A team who is not the best over the course of the season can win it depending on - umpire decisions, home ground finals policy, injuries to key players, the weather, the bounce of ball etc.

In regards to the structure of finals - again, the AFL doesn't care about fairness. It cares about television ratings and sponsorship revenue.

The pre-finals bye is laughable. It's the AFL saying that they can can manipulate the competition but if the clubs take advantage of AFL rules then it's an integrity issue.

 

[strongandbold12]

i love that the dogs won in 2016 and everyone said it was because of the new system but since then the teams that have won have not only had double chances but they've also won their qualifiers. it's almost like the dogs were deserving

biggest fluke to ever happen in the afl that one. thank your lucky stars sydney got raped by the umps.

 

[Soberian Tiger]

This year, as was the case two years ago, the third-placed team carried the day.

On both occasions, there had been and no difference between the number of games won by first and third leading into the finals, however. This illustrates that top two is not always indisputably best.

 

[saints_333]

i love that the dogs won in 2016 and everyone said it was because of the new system but since then the teams that have won have not only had double chances but they've also won their qualifiers. it's almost like the dogs were deserving

The Bulldogs were a special case. With the injuries they had during the season they should never have finished where they were and should have finished much higher. I even had them as one of my premiership favourites at the start of the season. If it wasn't for the bye they wouldn't have got the extra players back probably and would not have beaten the eagles and got no further.

Since then, the top 4 have gone on to breeze to the Grand Final pretty easily with at least one of the teams winning the Grand Final. Yes GWS made the Grand Final this year but they were slaughtered. I expect the trend of at least one team using the extra break as a great advantage from the top 4 in the coming future.

 

[quotemokc]

The top 2 teams getting a first week of finals bye and there also being a bye between the prelim and GF would suit me. (no more double chance)

But footy is weird, most pro sports teams in the world would kill for a bye but over here it tends to prevent the rested team 'getting up' for the occasion.

 

[juss]

Reality is at the end of the home and away, there's not much between the top 4 and any of them could win the flag with a good September run. Generally the top 4 are above the others which is why the flag comes from them 9/10 times.

I think the system is doing a good job in sorting out the best teams when the best 4 H&A sides win the flag.