Analysis The Sustainability Model – West Coast and Scoring from Intercepts

AsterixTheGaul

Plucked from the Amos
Sep 12, 2013
4,440
9,107
15 min water taxi from Optus
AFL Club
West Coast
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Gunners Lakers Scorcher Claremont
David King can be off the rails at times, but he also has some useful insights.

On AFL360 on Wednesday he discussed the issue of Scoring from Turnovers.

Over the past 5 years, the teams that score 55 points or more from intercepts have a 71% chance of winning the game. This number jumped to 90% with 60 points or more.

In 2017, Richmond (premiers that year) averaged 57 points from intercepts as did in West Coast in 2018(reigning premiers).

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Over the last 4 weeks, West Coast has gone to 58.5 points from intercepts and Collingwood have fallen to 36.0 and GWS 28.5.

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King’s closing comment on that was don’t worry about West Coast, they are building. On top of that, they get NicNat back and once he gets used to the 6-6-6, he will dominate because he is the person that will most benefit from the rule change. (or words to that effect).
 

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Quinz

Chief Club Folder
May 31, 2005
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West Coast
Was very excited about that stat.

As he said, intercept scores are the key to the current game. Stoppage scores are a bonus. And while we're already a very strong intercept team, we're adding a giant dreadlocked Fijian bonus to the stoppage game with a rule tweak that he's absolutely built for.

Given a few weeks have gone our way, top 4 is looking like a strong possibility, and we are building nicely under the radar with the confidence that our best is the competitions best.
 

Max zero

Premium Platinum
Jul 19, 2005
13,002
8,517
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Was very excited about that stat.

As he said, intercept scores are the key to the current game. Stoppage scores are a bonus. And while we're already a very strong intercept team, we're adding a giant dreadlocked Fijian bonus to the stoppage game with a rule tweak that he's absolutely built for.

Given a few weeks have gone our way, top 4 is looking like a strong possibility, and we are building nicely under the radar with the confidence that our best is the competitions best.
We should trade Nic Nat while ruckman value is at its peak.

Isn't that how it works?

Seriously we are in a really good spot.
 

Jiggyman

Club Legend
Apr 1, 2010
2,077
2,042
AFL Club
West Coast
Well, our backline has been running the show and the key to our success since '15. It was likely the sole reason we were thereabouts in '16 and '17.

Only last year did our midfield finally make steps to break even with other elite midfields, due in no small part to Yeo's emergence as a genuine superstar and tactical improvements around stoppages.
 

Max zero

Premium Platinum
Jul 19, 2005
13,002
8,517
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Well, our backline has been running the show and the key to our success since '15. It was likely the sole reason we were thereabouts in '16 and '17.

Only last year did our midfield finally make steps to break even with other elite midfields, due in no small part to Yeo's emergence as a genuine superstar and tactical improvements around stoppages.
Yeo and Sheed.

Gaff punching out Brayshaw in a way paved the way to where the team is now.
 

Tugga27

Club Legend
Jun 19, 2017
1,605
2,196
AFL Club
West Coast
Yep, but stats can be misleading and can tell you pretty much anything you want.

WC were only ranked 12th using this table last month.


AFL 2019: Which clubs are playing like flag winners? See if your club matches the premiership profile

Every club after Round 12. The premiers from 2009-18 all ranked in the top five of each category.

Every club after Round 12. The premiers from 2009-18 all ranked in the top five of each category.
 

Dazzler10

Premiership Player
Apr 30, 2015
4,174
9,649
Te Fiti
AFL Club
West Coast
Yep, but stats can be misleading and can tell you pretty much anything you want.

WC were only ranked 12th using this table last month.


AFL 2019: Which clubs are playing like flag winners? See if your club matches the premiership profile

Every club after Round 12. The premiers from 2009-18 all ranked in the top five of each category.

Every club after Round 12. The premiers from 2009-18 all ranked in the top five of each category.
Wow, we suck. Fold.
 

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Jiggyman

Club Legend
Apr 1, 2010
2,077
2,042
AFL Club
West Coast
Yeo and Sheed.

Gaff punching out Brayshaw in a way paved the way to where the team is now.
Can't believe I forgot Dom.

And I think the Brayshaw incident, whilst regrettable, was eventually another obstacle that grew our resolve and ultimately helped us push for the flag.
 

06Premiers

Club Legend
Oct 11, 2006
2,271
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Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
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Anything negative from Champion Data I will take with a grain of salt.
"Melbourne have the best list? Pfft, what do those numpties know?!"

Anything positive from Champion Data I will defend to the death.
"We're #1 scoring team from intercepts? Just give us the flag now."
 

WCEbrody

Premiership Player
May 17, 2011
3,554
3,005
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
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Chelsea F.C, Chicago Bulls
We do have the best intercept markers in the game in Gov,Barrass,Hurn & to a lesser extent Sheppard(more of a lockdown) but if the midfield doesn't fire a shot we end up getting bugger all intercepts and teams score against us very easily.

Genuinely don't worry about who we've got playing in the back half if the midfields pressure is on, as good as our boys down back are
 

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