The Syrian War

[FPPF]

How do you define expansionism in the 21st century?

That red line is some of what Turkey claims. As you may or may not be aware, those islands all belong to Greece, except a few as indicated. The majority of the visible islands in that map close to Turkey are inhabited (by Greeks obviously, as they have been for thousands of years).

The darker blue is Greece's 6nm territorial waters. The lighter blue is the 12nm limit allowed under International Law.The dark blue line is Greece's Exclusive Economic Zone.
The dark red is Turkey's 6nm territorial waters. The lighter red the 12nm, and the red line is one of their wet dreams of a greater Turkey.

Does that red line not represent an expansionist agenda?

This is Greece's Exclusive Economic Zone, which is in accordance with international laws, law of the sea conventions and so on.
That little spike down, up and then down between Greece and Cyprus, near the Turkish coast..right there where it spikes up, there's three Greek islands there, Kastelorizo, Strogili and Ro.
Greece actually offered that they take this dispute to the International Courts for a settlement and binding resolution. Turkey refused. Wonder why, when one country's claims are based on international laws & conventions, and the others claims are based on their expansionist agenda.

This is Turkeys, in accordance with the same laws & conventions as well. Turkey doesn't want to accept that this is the limits of what it can legally claim in the region.
Turkey wants more. Why? 1) because the areas it wants, are rich with hydrocarbons and rare earth minerals. and 2) because there is an old policy of theirs about what we would today call a "greater" Turkey. *see the end of the post to understand that last part.
Notice in the Black Sea, how it is divided fairly equally? That is so because it is just water.
Turkey wants to apply the same thing in the Aegean and East Med. However the difference is that in both there are thousands of Greek islands, some inhabited some not. Therefore that is the territory of Greece. But that doesn't stop Turkey, supposedly a NATO ally, from questioning the sovereignty of said areas.
However, sadly for the Turk, there is a thing called international law, which if you want to put it into practice, you can look at the map I posted of Greece's EEZ.

Now, this is the extent of Turkeys claims in the Aegean/East Med in regards to Greece.

So, does this meet the criteria for expansionist in the 21st century?
Misak-i Milli is a Turkish policy for expanding Turkey's borders east into the Caucasus region, south into Iraq, Syria & Cyprus, and west into Greece and Bulgaria.

What this post has to do with Syria? Well, look at *Misak-i Milli maps, and look at where Turkey has pushed into Syria. It's not a coincidence, and it's only another factor in what Turkey is doing.


Russia, expansionist - Crimea.
China, expansionist - South China Sea reefs/islands.
Turkey, expansionist - part of Cyprus, part of Syria, wants half the Aegean.

Some fine company Turkey is in.

 

[awaremind]

That red line is some of what Turkey claims. As you may or may not be aware, those islands all belong to Greece, except a few as indicated. The majority of the visible islands in that map close to Turkey are inhabited (by Greeks obviously, as they have been for thousands of years).

The darker blue is Greece's 6nm territorial waters. The lighter blue is the 12nm limit allowed under International Law.The dark blue line is Greece's Exclusive Economic Zone.
The dark red is Turkey's 6nm territorial waters. The lighter red the 12nm, and the red line is one of their wet dreams of a greater Turkey.

Does that red line not represent an expansionist agenda?

This is Greece's Exclusive Economic Zone, which is in accordance with international laws, law of the sea conventions and so on.
That little spike down, up and then down between Greece and Cyprus, near the Turkish coast..right there where it spikes up, there's three Greek islands there, Kastelorizo, Strogili and Ro.
Greece actually offered that they take this dispute to the International Courts for a settlement and binding resolution. Turkey refused. Wonder why, when one country's claims are based on international laws & conventions, and the others claims are based on their expansionist agenda.

This is Turkeys, in accordance with the same laws & conventions as well. Turkey doesn't want to accept that this is the limits of what it can legally claim in the region.
Turkey wants more. Why? 1) because the areas it wants, are rich with hydrocarbons and rare earth minerals. and 2) because there is an old policy of theirs about what we would today call a "greater" Turkey. *see the end of the post to understand that last part.
Notice in the Black Sea, how it is divided fairly equally? That is so because it is just water.
Turkey wants to apply the same thing in the Aegean and East Med. However the difference is that in both there are thousands of Greek islands, some inhabited some not. Therefore that is the territory of Greece. But that doesn't stop Turkey, supposedly a NATO ally, from questioning the sovereignty of said areas.
However, sadly for the Turk, there is a thing called international law, which if you want to put it into practice, you can look at the map I posted of Greece's EEZ.

Now, this is the extent of Turkeys claims in the Aegean/East Med in regards to Greece.

So, does this meet the criteria for expansionist in the 21st century?
Misak-i Milli is a Turkish policy for expanding Turkey's borders east into the Caucasus region, south into Iraq, Syria & Cyprus, and west into Greece and Bulgaria.

What this post has to do with Syria? Well, look at *Misak-i Milli maps, and look at where Turkey has pushed into Syria. It's not a coincidence, and it's only another factor in what Turkey is doing.


Russia, expansionist - Crimea.
China, expansionist - South China Sea reefs/islands.
Turkey, expansionist - part of Cyprus, part of Syria, wants half the Aegean.

Some fine company Turkey is in.

Crimea is a highly important part of Russia they were never going to just let that slip through their hands.

South China Sea is way closer to China and our allies provocations are the aggressive move.

Turkey is a different kettle of fish as their aggression is tolerated as they are a strategic ally, unlike the other two.

 

[FPPF]

Crimea is a highly important part of Russia they were never going to just let that slip through their hands.

South China Sea is way closer to China and our allies provocations are the aggressive move.

Turkey is a different kettle of fish as their aggression is tolerated as they are a strategic ally, unlike the other two.

Crimea was part of the Ukraine legally, and it's not legally recognized as part of Russia despite Russia's annexation.
They only made a move against it because the West was trying to pull Ukraine away from Russia into the EU/NATO sphere. So Russia took Crimea to secure it's naval/military access in the Black Sea.

Some of the islands/reefs that China has militarized are closer to other countries then they are to China.
China doesn't have a right to deny passage of any vessels through International Waters.
Taking those islands & reefs pushes US forces in the event of war further out, creates a small buffer.

 

[FPPF]

Is US redesigning southern flank?

Amid Turkey’s rapprochement with Russia, the United States has stepped up military cooperation with Greece, Turkey’s traditional regional rival, heralding shifts in geostrategic balances in the Balkans, the Aegean and the eastern Mediterranean.

www.al-monitor.com

For Atlanticists, a breed near extinction in Ankara, however, the visible increase in US military cooperation with Greece stems from Turkey’s misguided strategic choices in recent years and shows that Washington has given up hope on Ankara, leaving Turkey to Russia and trying to build a new axis with Greece to contain Russia in the eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean and curb China's trade surge in the region.

A bit more on the wider geopolitical situation in the East Med.

 

[FPPF]

And now Mr Trump..?

 

[The Speaker]

Wild times at the OPCW, via the Mail on Sunday:

A leaked email last night dramatically indicated that the UN’s poison gas watchdog had butchered and censored a critical report on an alleged chemical attack in Syria. If substantiated, the revelations will be severely embarrassing for Britain, France and America, which launched a massive military strike in retaliation without waiting for proof that chemical weapons had actually been used.

...

The revelation appears to be the worst instance of ‘sexing-up’ in support of war since the invasion of Iraq and Tony Blair’s doctored dossiers. A whistleblower has made public the astonishing email of protest which was sent to senior officials at the OPCW. It says that the independent scientists’ official report on the Douma incident had been slashed and censored so severely that it:

• Misrepresented the facts – by leaving out key information;
• Hid the fact that the traces of chlorine found on the site were merely tiny trace elements, in parts per billion, and in forms that could have been found in any household bleach;
• Contained major deviations from the original report submitted by impartial experts, so that it had ‘morphed into something quite different’;
• Suppressed a total mismatch between the symptoms allegedly displayed by victims at the scene, and the effects of the chemicals which were actually found. The symptoms seen on harrowing videos shown at the time of the incident simply did not match the symptoms which would have been caused by any material found at the site.

The Mail on Sunday has seen the email of protest which one scientist at the OPCW submitted to his superiors. It refers to the original expert report from Douma which the email says was savagely censored.

Sexed-up dossier furore over alleged poison gas attack by Assad

A dissenting scientist, employed by OPCW says in the email that investigations on the ground at Douma have produced no hard evidence that the alleged gas attack took place.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[its free real estate]

with the deep state’s utter failure on Iraq, then Libya and now Syria, it makes you wonder why they’re suddenly trustworthy with respect to their Trump derangement.

 

[Brunswick Trap King]

Wild times at the OPCW, via the Mail on Sunday:

Sexed-up dossier furore over alleged poison gas attack by Assad

A dissenting scientist, employed by OPCW says in the email that investigations on the ground at Douma have produced no hard evidence that the alleged gas attack took place.

www.dailymail.co.uk

How surprising.

 

[FPPF]

Inside the ethnic cleansing of Turkey’s Syrian ‘safe zone’

Turkey’s invasion into northern Syria has caused a demographic shift that many fear will become permanent, reports Richard Hall

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Johnny Bananas]

The Turkish state is disgusting. This war would have ended long ago if not for Erdogan keeping it going. And the West is in a military alliance with this cretin?!

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

The Turkish state is disgusting. This war would have ended long ago if not for Erdogan keeping it going. And the West is in a military alliance with this cretin?!

Presumably not for much longer. Erdogan shifting sides makes their continued involvement in NATO superfluous if not outright deleterious; hopefully their eviction is followed up with a strongly worded support for Cypriot re-unification, increased military funding for the Greeks and a condemnation of the Armenian genocide in the UN.

 

[sdfc]

Presumably not for much longer. Erdogan shifting sides makes their continued involvement in NATO superfluous if not outright deleterious; hopefully their eviction is followed up with a strongly worded support for Cypriot re-unification, increased military funding for the Greeks and a condemnation of the Armenian genocide in the UN.

The Europeans are weak as p*ss. Putin's all over them.

 

[Thegibbsgamble]

How surprising.

It's public record that the white helmets are al queda and they claimed this attack. Basically in areas they over run with isis, they went to apartment buildings and took chemical readings from kitchens and laundry, and claimed evidence of chemical warfare

 

[FPPF]

Presumably not for much longer. Erdogan shifting sides makes their continued involvement in NATO superfluous if not outright deleterious; hopefully their eviction is followed up with a strongly worded support for Cypriot re-unification, increased military funding for the Greeks and a condemnation of the Armenian genocide in the UN.

Erdogan recently said that Turkey will never leave Syria.
Apparently they are starting to resettle over a million Syrians into northern Syria, the regions they ethnically cleansed of Kurds.

The ethnic cleansing aside, this is a violation of the Geneva Convention, by resettling people in another region to change the demographics. Turkey did this in occupied Cyprus too, and got away with it since the western powers failed to hold them accountable. So they are doing it again, and again the western powers are doing nothing about it.

Right now Turkey is expanding it's brutality to Libya, supporting the GNA which is aligned with/has ISIS fighting on it's side. Surprise surprise, just like in Syria, the Turks are aiding the terrorist groups. Hopefully Haftars forces are able to capture Tripoli soon.
It's actually a much larger issue overall in the Eastern Mediterranean, with many expecting Greece and Turkey to come to the brink of war in the coming year or so. Btw, Greece just recently intercepted a cargo ship of weapons from Turkey bound for Libya. The supply of weapons to the opposing forces in Libya is in violation of UN resolutions. Greece has stopped many such shipments.

Cyprus would have been re-unified if it weren't for Turkey's meddling. Cyprus wouldn't have even been an issue if it weren't for Turkey to begin with in fact.

Greece doesn't need increased military funding, it needs the bullshit increased debt that primarily Germany through the EU apparatus lumped it with to be removed, as it's not Greece's debt but the debt of the European banking system. Pre-crisis debt was roughly 110%, in crisis it shot up to nearly 190% AFTER they claim they bailed Greece out, it's now coming down again as the Greek economy returns to growth, I think it's down to around 170% and expected to fall further to 160%.
What Greece, and Cyprus, Israel, Egypt, the Kurds and the LNA in Libya need, is for the West to do more then just talk.
Turkey understands one thing, the might of force.
Greece understands that if it comes to war it will fight alone, and is fully prepared to do so. Aint expecting s**t from the EU or the USA. Just more blah blah in front of the cameras.
In 1987 Turkey tried this drilling scenario in the Aegean Sea, announcing it was sending a drill ship into Greek waters. Greece responded by mobilizing for war (yep, against a so called NATO ally), and the navy was tasked with finding Turkish flagged naval ships and ships associated with oil/gas exploration and sinking them..it was a shoot first ask questions later thing. Turkey ran with it's tail between its legs and hasn't tried that bullshit until now, against Cyprus, and is saying it will do the same in Greek waters.
You should see the boundaries in the invalid MOU over maritime boundaries/EEZ Turkey has signed with the GNA in Libya. Completely ignores international laws, the law of the sea, and even ignores inhabited Greek islands. Almost everyone and their dog has condemned it, but again, just lip service.
Although the agreement, despite being invalid, would screw Italy's ENI, so Italy's response has been, so far besides lip service, to send a frigate to Cyprus, and France and Italy are holding naval exercises with Cyprus.

I wouldn't be surprised if it came to war, if the Greek government was hesitating, for the Greek military to take action and tell the government to * off.

Part of the problem is Turkey acts in a hypocritical manner, and tries to reference international laws and such, despite the fact that they are ignoring said laws, conventions, accords etc, and nobody in the EU calls them out on it. If you jump on twitter there's a great many people from across Europe who are calling them out, but they aren't the shot callers running EU countries.

But like I said, the EU are gutless. They have FRONTEX, their border force, deployed in the region, and they witness Turkeys actions and behavior on a daily basis. They see the Turkish military assisting the flow of illegal immigrants into Europe. They see Turkey violating airspace and maritime boundaries, FRONTEX's own helicopters and vessels have been threatened by the Turkish military..but Europe stays silent.
It's the same with NATO, they see the movements of Turkey's military (and Greece's), and are fully aware of what's going on. But they stay silent.

The USA has actually been a much better ally in recent times, on various fronts. If only The Donald wasn't concerned about Trump Industries investments in Turkey, we'd have seen a lot more happening in regards to containing and dealing with Turkey.

What about the genocide of over 900,000 ethnic Greeks from Anatolia and Asia Minor, and many more Assyrians during the same period as the Armenian genocide? The US just passed a resolution recognizing the Armenian genocide I believe.

As for Turkeys involvement in NATO, they'll be dealt with eventually. Russia has just revealed that Erdogan has been keeping Putin appraised of NATO meetings.. What an "ally". The French have also had a go at them publicly.
Either Erdogan is removed or goes, and Turkey is back on the US leash, or Turkey will suffer. The problem is that for decades now the various lobby & interest groups have painted Turkey as a reliable ally, as the only western oriented Muslim country in the world, a great ally of Israel (yeah, we've seen that great ally that has allied it self with Hamas & ISIS now lol), so it's taking time to wind that all back and cast Turkey in a truer light. But it's happening.

The F35's that Turkey had paid for but not received, I believe about a dozen, the US has recently allocated funds to purchase them for it's own use. So that's another sign that things are moving in the right direction, all be it slowly.

The major problem I foresee is not a war, Greece's armed forces are prepared for that.
The problem is if Turkey manages to take control of some islands, big or small close to it's coast line, that the west will be the cowards we know and urge (pressure) Greece to compromise and lose territory, just to end the hostilities. Todays Greek politicians are likely to go along with it unless the military can scare them into putting the nations interests first.
Because all that will do is further embolden Turkey. Because it will be a sign that it can get away with using force to get what it wants without repercussions from the world powers. Like I mentioned, they forcefully changed the demographics in Cyprus in violation of the Geneva Conventions, got away with it, and are now applying the same thing to northern Syria against the Kurds.

And this madman Erdogan wants nuclear weapons. Imagine what lengths he will go to if he got them.

Turkey needs to be seen as the anomaly it is in the wider region and carved up accordingly.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

The USA has actually been a much better ally in recent times, on various fronts. If only The Donald wasn't concerned about Trump Industries investments in Turkey, we'd have seen a lot more happening in regards to containing and dealing with Turkey.

Trump is Putin's lapdog, and therefore is Erdogan's lapdog. Never forget it was Trump's decision to abandon the Kurds that left an opening for Turkey to exploit further in Syria. I don't believe for a second that was the result of naivety, I think it was carefully orchestrated. No chance the US takes substantial action on Turkey until Trump is out of office.

 

[FPPF]

Kicking Turkey out of the F35 program is pretty substantial. Israel has F35s and they've already announced that Greece will too..no orders yet but likely in the next few years. Thats all very significant because it impacts Turkeys capabilities.
They are also talking about specific sanctions on Turkey which will prevent them from buying spare parts for their F16 fleet, that would cripple their air force ala Iran style. In time theyd produce their own inferior parts as substitutes though. Meanwhile their regional rivals Israel and Greece will have the latest fighters.

We're not going to see US military action against Turkey over these issues. But we will see Turkey overstep and cause a war with Greece, probably within the next five years. That will have a ripple effect within the West, Russia etc.

There will be skirmishes, hot incidents probably as soon as next year before the European summer. Unless Turkey backs down on its ridiculous demands and claims contrary to international laws, because Greece isnt going to back down from defending its sovereignty. Even if the gov. caves like they did on the name, economy, the people have had a gut full now...they'll overthrow the gov if not demand the military do it (and they will because they are itching to bitch slap Turkey).

There's some bad times coming to the East. Med.

 

[FPPF]

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It was being reported in Russian media that a small fleet of USAF C17's have already started removing the nukes to European bases.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

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It was being reported in Russian media that a small fleet of USAF C17's have already started removing the nukes to European bases.

Interesting that once again the Senate and Trump have different priorities on foreign policy.

 

[Frank Bunn]

Interesting which countries have what views on the genocide of Armenians in WWI.

Does Israel maintain that the Armenian slaughter was not genocide because it's politically expedient to hold that there has only been one 'holocaust'?

 

[Thegibbsgamble]

It's interesting we have no money for fire trucks. But still money for bombs for moderate rebels who suicide bomb hospitals.

Some video is starting to emerge, captured from alqueda fighters as the Syrians liberate the aleppo countryside.

Theres one vid shows a hospital Blown up and then the white helmets go in with Al Queada and pull Out there men who were prisoners and wounded, who survived the bombing.

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

Right now Turkey is expanding it's brutality to Libya, supporting the GNA which is aligned with/has ISIS fighting on it's side. Surprise surprise, just like in Syria, the Turks are aiding the terrorist groups. Hopefully Haftars forces are able to capture Tripoli soon.

Enter Russia's 'denied-ops' specialists the Wagner Group - and yet more hypocritical whingeing from Washington about foreign meddling. Give it a rest you tossers...

With the Help of Russian Fighters, Libya’s Haftar Could Take Tripoli

But Russian aid will come at a cost.

foreignpolicy.com

December 2019

...the deck was shuffled in early September, which saw the arrival to the Tripoli front of yet another foreign meddler—more than 100 Russian mercenaries from the so-called Wagner Group early that month, joined, in recent weeks, by hundreds of additional fighters, who’ve inflicted an uptick in casualties among (GNA militia commander Mohammed) al-Darrat and his men. The Libyan commander bemoaned the apparent improvement in the precision of the ever present armed drones that destroy his vehicles at will, day or night, constricting his movements and forcing him to hunker down for hours on end. There is a seemingly endless supply of mortars that rain down. Russian anti-tank missiles, the dreaded Kornets, snake between sand berms to incinerate their target with a devastating accuracy.

And then there are the Russian snipers. Their shots to the chest and head, al-Darrat says, reveal a professionalism he’s never seen before, accounting for 30 percent of the deaths in his unit. One of these marksmen had recently killed a 23-year-old fighter, whose body still lay on the battlefield. al-Darrat and his men plotted for hours one morning about how to retrieve it using ropes or armored cars: It lay directly in the path of snipers, who’d already wounded a soldier in a previous recovery attempt, with an anti-materiel rifle. The mission seemed all the more urgent because the dead man’s father was imploring al-Darrat to return his corpse.

All this may sound like good news to Haftar, who, for the first time, could conceivably take Tripoli. But the battlefield advantages that come with Russian aid may carry costs. On Nov. 14, the U.S. State Department issued its most forceful condemnation yet of his war, singling out his militia by name and asserting that his alliance with Russian mercenaries is a dangerous breach of Libyan sovereignty. In tandem, the U.S. Congress is growing considerably more concerned about the war’s effect on civilians and its boon to Russian influence in the region. Bipartisan legislation is pending in both the House and Senate that would place sanctions on the Russian contractors and their enablers...

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Enter Russia's 'denied-ops' specialists the Wagner Group - and yet more hypocritical whingeing from Washington about foreign meddling. Give it a rest you tossers...

That article got me thinking, is the lesser evil an authoritarian secularist or a democratic Islamist? Of course, the Islamists could dismantle the democracy at the first opportunity, like Erdogan. But so too can the authoritarians fund radical Islam, like the Saudis have done with Wahhabism.

When in doubt, I guess I prefer anything that is against Erdogan's grand designs, so Assad and Haftar are the lesser evil.

 

[FPPF]

That article got me thinking, is the lesser evil an authoritarian secularist or a democratic Islamist? Of course, the Islamists could dismantle the democracy at the first opportunity, like Erdogan. But so too can the authoritarians fund radical Islam, like the Saudis have done with Wahhabism.

When in doubt, I guess I prefer anything that is against Erdogan's grand designs, so Assad and Haftar are the lesser evil.

I think these days Turkey and Qatar are doing more terror funding then others in the Middle East. At least their doing their fair share.

Assad and Haftar are the lesser of two evils, but no angels obviously.

But, the powers that be, wanted Turkey embroiled in the Syrian mess with boots on the ground. Turkey resisted early on, but they have been dragged in now well and truly.

They've lost quite a lot this week in men and materials. And they'll continue to lose more.
Best thing Erdogan did is purge his own military because they stood against his hardline Islamist policies. The best thing, as far as regional rivals are concerned anyway lol.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I think these days Turkey and Qatar are doing more terror funding then others in the Middle East. At least their doing their fair share.

Do you mind taking a minute to inform me what Qatar has actually done in this regard? I hear many noises about it from the Saudis and UAE but I haven't seen any well-established links to terrorists yet.

Assad and Haftar are the lesser of two evils, but no angels obviously.

Feels almost like a redux of Saddam, in many ways. They're bastards, but they keep the Islamic extremists in line for the most part.

Best thing Erdogan did is purge his own military because they stood against his hardline Islamist policies. The best thing, as far as regional rivals are concerned anyway lol.

Nice as it is to see Erdogan lose, the lives at risk aren't his, and I worry greatly about the Kurds and how this episode strengthens the Islamic extremists.

 

[FPPF]

Qatar funds Turkey in various ways. The Turkish economy, despite their official stats, is up s**t creek along with their currency. The only real positive is it has a rather low debt level.
Its a proxy war largely, Saudis and the West fund/arm/support one side, Turkey/Qatar fund another, Iran & Russia another. Theres cross over too.

The Kurds will be fine. The Turks have been trying to wipe them out for decades but cocouldn't with NATO trained kemalist generals. Theyve been replaced by Islamist dipshits lol.
Even the US military has commented how bad Turkeys military actually is.
All the Kurds have to remember is do the opposite of Turkey when it comes to foreign relations. Turkey has pissed off all its neighbors and beyond. Theres US senators calling for Turkey to be booted from NATO, US troops to be pulled out of Turkey, and more who want to hit them with sanctions.
The US military probably wants to hit them too, after the 2003 Iraq invasion attempted bribery fiasco.

They have forced Turkey to get invovled, plus Erdogans a dumby with grand visions lol that his sheeple eat up. The goal is to hurt Turkey, carve out some of its territory in the aftermath.
Turkey is and will be fighting on its own, NATO wont come to fight for them.
NATO didnt even lift a finger when Turkey shot down a Russian jet with no warning, plus all the other incidents that dont make news.
There would be some pushing for NATO to confront Russia, but it wont happen.
The end goal is redrawing the Middle East's borders. Its a long term project thats unfolding before us slowly.

In the end it wouldn't surprise me if Erdogan is revealled as a CIA/MOSSAD asset lol.
He's completely ****ed Turkey over, it now has more problems with other countries then ever before.

Libya is another proxy front.