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Blue Dimension

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Quality post in the Trade Targets thread last night, looking at #7 over the last 10 years, vs #19 and #21 over the last 10 years, not sure of the permalinking thing so I've reproduced the whole thing below.

The results scare the bejeezus out of me, to be honest - I had been open to the idea of #19 and #21 being two bites at the cherry, but those lists suggests that not only do you dramatically increase the possibility of striking out altogether, even the 'good' players are nowhere near as good. I say keep #7 and make damn sure of one very good player.
Spot on.
 

Farktherest

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Quality post in the Trade Targets thread last night, looking at #7 over the last 10 years, vs #19 and #21 over the last 10 years, not sure of the permalinking thing so I've reproduced the whole thing below.

The results scare the bejeezus out of me, to be honest - I had been open to the idea of #19 and #21 being two bites at the cherry, but those lists suggests that not only do you dramatically increase the possibility of striking out altogether, even the 'good' players are nowhere near as good. I say keep #7 and make damn sure of one very good player.
You really cant blindly look at stats like that.

Maybe this years draft is more comparable to 09 and 07....which would get us sheppard or palmer.

Gotta look at the actual players we could choose from at pick 7, not blindly look at the number 7 itself
 

Jamie007

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You really cant blindly look at stats like that.

Maybe this years draft is more comparable to 09 and 07....which would get us sheppard or palmer.

Gotta look at the actual players we could choose from at pick 7, not blindly look at the number 7 itself
Sure you can do that.. Or you can look at history and see in the last 10 years, those later picks have been close to duds in all of them...
It sure makes the chances about 10% that we are likely to get two very good players at picks 19 and 21.. The odds of getting a great player at 7 are about 90%.. I know what I'd be doing.
 

BlueMaster1

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Let's assume both trades mentioned in that article are on the table for us to choose from. Whichever we pick says an enormous amount about the mindset of the club and where we see ourselves internally.

Trade 1: Liam Jones, Adam Cooney & pick 45 in exchange for pick 28

Trade 2: Kristian Jaksch, pick 19 & pick 21 in exchange for pick 7 and pick 28

Accept the first offer and you are selling to members and supporters the mindset that you believe you are currently in, or about to enter into, a premiership window.

Go with the second option and despite giving up an early selection, you are projecting that the club needs to embrace the draft and continue to go hard at bringing young talent into the club.

The first option is somewhat tempting but surely you'd have to go with the second trade. Yes we give up our first two selections but in return we bring in a highly rated young key position player with 2 years worth of AFL development in his system, as well as the opportunity to draft two very good young footballers. You'd also assume that trading our 3rd pick for Jones would still well and truly be on the cards.

As much as I'd love to keep our early pick, I think a trade period which saw us walk away with two relatively young key position players, two relatively good draft picks and whatever other minor pieces we manage to shuffle (Garlett & Robinson trades, as well as possibly trading in Tutt with a very late token selection) would be a terrific result for the club.

Having said that, MM is on record as saying he thinks we're approaching a premiership window. Saying that to the public is one thing, truly believing it internally is another. Let's see how serious he was when he said it...



Why not


Trade 1: Kristian Jaksch, pick 19 & pick 21 in exchange for pick 7 and pick 28

Which gives us picks: 19,21,46,65,83,101,11

Trade 2: Tutt,Jones,Cooney and pick 27 for pick 21 or 19

 

Cringle

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Why not


Trade 1: Kristian Jaksch, pick 19 & pick 21 in exchange for pick 7 and pick 28

Which gives us picks: 19,21,46,65,83,101,11

Trade 2: Tutt,Jones,Cooney and pick 27 for pick 21 or 19
I don't like the second trade.

The first is alright. But would rather keep pick 28 instead of upgrading. Not sure GWS would even use pick 28 anyway.
 

Coona Blues

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Why not


Trade 1: Kristian Jaksch, pick 19 & pick 21 in exchange for pick 7 and pick 28

Which gives us picks: 19,21,46,65,83,101,11

Trade 2: Tutt,Jones,Cooney and pick 27 for pick 21 or 19
If we get Jaksch the "need" for Jones is not as great.

Tutt is speculative - could prosper at a new home and has shown talent - late pick.
Jones is semi-speculative - worth a third to add KPP depth(at worst)
Cooney is spent or would not be on the table.

The sum of the 3 does not go close to a late first or early second rounder.
 
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You really cant blindly look at stats like that.

Maybe this years draft is more comparable to 09 and 07....which would get us sheppard or palmer.

Gotta look at the actual players we could choose from at pick 7, not blindly look at the number 7 itself
I actually don't think it's valid to do that... by that logic, you could say "2006, #1 = Gibbs: dud, coulda took Selwood". Confining to real picks the way the OP did makes it a genuine comparison. No question you can miss out at #7, but even if taking Sheppard, Palmer and Caddy out of the equation (and none spuds by any means), you're left with 7 really handy players out of 10. Compare to 19 and 21, and for every Isaac Smith, you've got a disturbing number of players who never even made a ripple... and not much of it even attributable to the previous recruiting regime at Carlton :oops:.

I suppose if you wanted to look at sampling bias, a similar comparison could be conducted using #6 v #18 and #20, or #8 v #20 and #22, and see whether the results are as emphatic as #7 v #19 and #21 appear to be.
 

Jamie007

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So if the AFL are now going to give the Scum an end of first round draft pick for compensation for Paddy Ryder leaving as a free agent, that means the draft picks some of you want to trade for will now become 20 and 22...
 

LanceRomance

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So if the AFL are now going to give the Scum an end of first round draft pick for compensation for Paddy Ryder leaving as a free agent, that means the draft picks some of you want to trade for will now become 20 and 22...
Picks 20 and 22 from the last few years have all been guns yeah?
 

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Athomas

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Talk is it's Whiley.

I'm quite open to trading 7 for Jaksch, 19 and Whiley.

As some mentioned, it's about who we will go with for Pick 7 this year, and my understanding was there are 5-6 guns and then it falls off. If 7 is worth the same as pick 10-13, might as well get some value out of it with 2 unproven but high-potential players and a 12 pick downgrade.
 
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Talk is it's Whiley.

I'm quite open to trading 7 for Jaksch, 19 and Whiley.

As some mentioned, it's about who we will go with for Pick 7 this year, and my understanding was there are 5-6 guns and then it falls off. If 7 is worth the same as pick 10-13, might as well get some value out of it with 2 unproven but high-potential players and a 12 pick downgrade.
Id be very angry if it was Whiley. Someone who cant even break into their team.

Apparently atm the trade being proposed is Pick 7 + 28 for Jaksch + Pick 19(Hawks 1st) + Pick 20. This is a better trade than Jaksch + Whiley. I am hoping for Pick 7 for Jaksch + Pick 19 + Pick 20
 

SafeAsMilk

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Talk is it's Whiley.

I'm quite open to trading 7 for Jaksch, 19 and Whiley.

As some mentioned, it's about who we will go with for Pick 7 this year, and my understanding was there are 5-6 guns and then it falls off. If 7 is worth the same as pick 10-13, might as well get some value out of it with 2 unproven but high-potential players and a 12 pick downgrade.
I haven't really seen Whiley play but I've heard he dominates the NEAFL. I'd rather keep pick 7 at this stage but if 7 + 28 becomes Jaksch, 21 and a Toby Greene I might start leaning towards it.
 

The Flying Doormat

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According to the article it was the AFLs idea.
think again

Essendon checked with the AFL on Monday as to whether Ryder could be made a free agent - with a compensation pick available, in the manner of any other free agent. Port made the same inquiry on Tuesday. The AFL confirmed it could be done. The Bombers have told Port that they still feel the Power is not giving up enough to make this deal happen and still want a highly valued player in return for Ryder.

Essendon General Manager of Football Rob Kerr later said "in discussions with another club the issue of compensation picks were raised which later led us to contemplate whether a contract that was in place could be annulled" on the club website.

"Essendon approached the AFL on Monday to get an understanding of whether that was possible. The only circumstances in which the club would contemplate this would be if Port Adelaide agreed to a further deal which would compliment the generation of an end of first round compensation pick."




Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...t-adelaide-20141008-1137n5.html#ixzz3FYOCgBet
 
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