The truth about the draft

Shwab

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Thread starter #1
This is what picks 3, 6, 14, 18 & 22 really get you -

1999 2000 2001 2002
3 - Aaron Fiora Alan Didak Chris Judd Jared Brennan
6 - Damien Cupido Dylan Smith Ashley Sampi Steven Salopek
14 - Travis Gaspar Daniel Harris Ashley Watson Daniel Bell
18 - Rhyce Shaw Daniel Kerr Shane Harvey Kris Shore
22 - Ezra Poyas Richard Hadley Mark Seaby Matthew Ferguson

2003 2004
3 - Colin Sylvia Ryan Griffen
6 - Kepler Bradley Tom Williams
14 - Fergus Watts Angus Monfires
18 - Llane Spaanderman Cameron Wood
22 - Cameron Thurley Jesse Wells

The best you can hope for with these picks is two solid contributors. These picks will not create a premiership side for 2007 or 2008. Out of the 30 picks over 6 years only Judd, Kerr, Harris and probably Griffen have made a significant impact for their team. DRAFT PICKS ARE OVERATED. Pick a year and put those players on our list, how many of them make an impact?

Trade any draft picks to recruit proven quality young players. Cash in old wood (even Everitt!) to attain quality developed young players.

Lots of great players have traded clubs for the right price - Gehrig, Hamill, Nathan Brown, Shannon Grant, Anthony Rocca, Nick Stevens, Barry Hall, Jeff White.

The draft is a lottery. With strong scouting information picks 40, 55 and 60 can be just as good as picks 14, 18 & 22. It is only the very 1st picks that are worth holding on to.

Hawthorn need the guts to trade quality players and draft picks for proven champions. How good has Everitt been? Definately worth every penny.

Could we have traded Everitt and picks 6 & 22 for Ryan OKeefe, Amon Buchanan and pick 19?

Both are really consistant young players, whilst Everitt is a champion with about 2 years left. Pick 6 gets you a Sampi, Salopek, Kepler Bradley, Tom Williams, Dylan Smith, Damien Cupido type.

Would you prefer Hay, Lonie and pick 22 to Kangaroos for David Hale?
I think picks 14 and 18 are overated. Have another look at what they were worth in 1999, 2001, 2002, 2003 & 2004. The year 2000 they were great value, but still it is a 1/6 chance that we will get anyone thats any good.

When a champion player is available, you have got to pay the price to get them. The draft is overated. Picks outside the top 4 or 5 aren't much chop.
Trading Chick, Thompson, Hay, Rawlings etc for draft picks is risky. What other clubs have been so keen to lose key position talent for a risky gamble?

Buy a superstar if you have to, trade an ageing champ if you have to, but if you have the option between a few draft picks or a quality young player, take the player every time. Surely we'd have some room in our salary cap with Crawf on the veterens list, Holland and Hay gone, Barker ....gone.
 

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Gary Shadforth

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#2
All quite feasible, Shwab. But the problem has been the immediate past trade week presented very little quality on the market. Yes the draft is overrated. It is purely a gamble all 16 clubs find themselves having to dice with, time will tell .... the dice will fall okay for some, ordinary or worthless for others.

So the option our club is taking is not only to get on-field results in the U-turn process heading back up the ladder but as we are dealing with an annual meat-market it is imperative we also nurture a list in the reasonable short term to obtain benefit down the track for bargaining power at the market ... if you get my drift?
 

RustyHawk

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#3
Interesting post Shwab

Shwab said:
This is what picks 3, 6, 14, 18 & 22 really get you -

The draft is a lottery. With strong scouting information picks 40, 55 and 60 can be just as good as picks 14, 18 & 22. It is only the very 1st picks that are worth holding on to.
Good point. Maybe thats why Hawthorn had the biggest contingent of staff at the recent draft camp, ya think? With 3 brilliant 1st round picks in last years draft, maybe, just maybe Hawthorn have found the formula to the fountain of football youth & success? You never know, a Little more time & Murphy & co from the draft may also be great players for us [did u get the pun]


"Could we have traded Everitt and picks 6 & 22 for Ryan OKeefe, Amon Buchanan and pick 19?" My answer: Wishful thinking. Sydney wouldnt want to let them go and they wouldnt want to come. Sydney needed a backup ruckman, they dont need to destroy the nucleus of their team.

"Would you prefer Hay, Lonie and pick 22 to Kangaroos for David Hale?"
Yes, but again wishful thinking. They didnt want to give up their no1 ruckman for an ageing backman, comeon.

"Trading Chick, Thompson, Hay, Rawlings etc for draft picks is risky. What other clubs have been so keen to lose key position talent for a risky gamble?"

You could never convince me that the Rawlings trade wasnt one of the trades of the century. A potential Nick Holland offloaded to another club for a 1st round pick, isnt that exactly what you are arguing for?

Cheers
 

cs61

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#4
I think the draft is becoming more and more accurate, espcially in the top 10, than it was back 5-7 years ago. I would be confident with our picks, that'd there's a good chance that we'll get one really good player, and a couple of solid players. That would be a good result.

If you look at the last two drafts, getting Sylvia, Bradley, Watts, Spanderman and Thurley

or

Griffen, Williams , Monfries, Wood and Wells.... geez there doesn't seem to be too many problems with that. Especially last years picks.

There seem to be people talking down the quality of this years draft, but the same people are also saying how great it would be to get ryder, kennedy, hurn, clark, murphy, ellis etc.... so there is always a group of players clubs would want to get their hands on.

Don't forget we are getting Travis Tuck father son as well... and we can be a lot more flexible with out choices.
 

badboybobba

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#8
The recruiters at Hawthorn would've done their homework and they obviously think they can get good players in the draft. Their jobs are on the line if they don't recruit well so definitely we must think we can get some guns all the way to pick 22 and get Tuck at 37.
 

Roughie

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#9
With picks 3 and 6 we are bound to get a solid 10 year player or atleast we hope....Also we get a good player with tuck at basically a low pick. I think we shouldnt be worried with this draft being rated low they are just saying its not incredibly deep Sheean said you will get players in the draft that will play this year and they might do a deledio and play every game, and he also said this draft is different in the way its not so clear cut in who will be picked in what order in the draft as it has been in the last few drafts.

Also i dont expect us to be greatly succesful next season which means we will be good position in the expected "super draft".
 

Gooka

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#10
you boys have done the right thing and I'm sure you'll get some superstars with all the picks you've got in the top 22. I'd be stoked to have those picks this year... there'll be some good players coming through in the Brown N Gold soon.

See you boys in the 08/09 GFs :D
 

Adelaide Hawk

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#11
Gary Shadforth said:
Yes, cschreuder61. I have a feeling the dice at the draft is going to land well for us this time around.
What do you mean THIS time around? I think we did pretty well last season, and getting Hodge was an inspired choice, no matter what some others may think. We also chose well with Croad (eventually), and McPharlin, although that one let us down.
 

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cosby

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#12
if we get another 'roughie, buddy and lewis' combination from this years draft we should all be extremely pleased.

i know we only have 3 and 6 in the top 10 but looking thru previuos drafts we're a real chance of getting a future gun with one of those two picks(14 & 18) we got for captain snooze.

bring on the draft.
 

ELfooty

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#13
Shwab said:
This is what picks 3, 6, 14, 18 & 22 really get you -

1999 2000 2001 2002
3 - Aaron Fiora Alan Didak Chris Judd Jared Brennan
6 - Damien Cupido Dylan Smith Ashley Sampi Steven Salopek
14 - Travis Gaspar Daniel Harris Ashley Watson Daniel Bell
18 - Rhyce Shaw Daniel Kerr Shane Harvey Kris Shore
22 - Ezra Poyas Richard Hadley Mark Seaby Matthew Ferguson

2003 2004
3 - Colin Sylvia Ryan Griffen
6 - Kepler Bradley Tom Williams
14 - Fergus Watts Angus Monfires
18 - Llane Spaanderman Cameron Wood
22 - Cameron Thurley Jesse Wells
Well we obviously have faith in our recruiting staff... these picks could mean a Judd, a Bradley, a Monfries, a Kerr and a Seaby/Ferguson.
 
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