Prediction The Very early 2023 Ladder Predictions

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Grand Uncle Horace

Hall of Famer
May 24, 2017
41,083
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Old South Grandstand
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I think this is one of the better threads on the MB conducted in the right spirit. We all are self aware mushrooms.

It is pretty clear most of those that finished in the Top 8 will be highly competitive again, while those that finished outside are at different stages in their efforts to be a quality competitive team. Those at real risk of sliding are:

* the Dogs - Dunkley loss will hurt, while Lobb is a B grade forward. Their defence and forward line are both susso.

* the Tigers - I am not convinced Taranto and Hopper are the solution to the Tigers’ midfield deficiencies. Neither were first string mids in a team that struggled last year. Arguably we have seen their ceiling and it is not the Sistine Chapel, folks. Wonderful servants though each have been, quality contributions from Prestia, the skipper and big Jack cannot be expected to be at the same level as previous years. It is ridiculous to put it on one player but if Dusty returns to anything like his best over the season the Tigs will make the 8.

* the Pies - did wonderfully well in 2022 with some ageing top end talent and some terrific youngsters and of course their ability to win close ones was the stuff of legend. For me their Coach deserved every accolade he got. Titch and McStay are both excellent recruits targeting areas of weakness. Mihocek must be really delighted. That said they have a few injury prone players getting on in their footy lives and many youngsters finding their way. I reckon they will be in a battle for 6-8th with Port.

The Blues, Tigs and the Go Co will be fighting over 8th.

My big improvers from outside the 8 are:

* Port. They have recruited well and surely cannot endure such a poor start again. I reckon they should finish 4-6.

* Gold Coast. Contrary to most I think Dew is doing a pretty good job. King back will help as will natural improvement in a young and talented list that have now quite a bit of experience. I reckon they will be in the 7-10 range and should make the 8.

As for the others, here are some brief thoughts.

* With North importing some solid B graders, some decent drafting and acquiring a proven coach, they should not suffer so many terrible floggings. They will pick up a couple more wins, but still finish last. Their list is distorted from having imported a number of B graders on A grade salaries. It will take some years to fix.

* Hawthorn is in full rebuild mode. Their list is fine but they just need another 2-3 seasons to be competitive on a consistent basis and threaten the 8.

* West Coast had a shocker from injury and Covid. However its immediate future looks bleak. They are overdue a dramatic rebuild. Signing NicNat for two years remains a puzzling decision. Yes my mob re-signed Buddy but it was for one year and he still produced some quality footy in 2022. By contrast Naitanui struggles to play and seemed far too heavy for the joint issues he unhappily suffers from. I see negligible scope for improvement.

* Adelaide has put games into youngsters and has a pretty decent Coach. In Dawson they possess the best kick in the Comp and old fashioned swingman in the Comp. They should experience steady improvement.

* Essendon had a difficult 2022 but has picked up a proven Coach. The list has lots of talent but can Scott persuade notorious one way merchants in Merrett, Parish, Shiel and Stringer to run both ways. If yes they should win a couple more games.

* Lyon has inherited a Saints list dominated by 24yo+ B graders and few out and out quality players. I expect the Saints will fall further from last year.

* While GWS are rebuilding, I think it will be a swift one. Their personnel losses at the draft table are less than most have assessed. They are a sneaky chance to win a few more games and be competitive.

My locked in certainties for the 8 are Geelong, Brisbane, Melbourne, Freo, Bloods. I expect the Pies to make it along with Port and the GoCo.

Finally a very few words on the Blues. Imo they possess the most distorted list in the Comp. In most Rounds they will select around 10 very high quality players but then the rest are Role players at best and few are reliable at that. Like the Dons, their defensive skills are susso, even among some of their elite players. Voss is a terrific Coach but has a lot to do to shape the list. Could make the 8 but I reckon their range is 10-12 wins.

Woops and before I am criticised, I expect the Bloods to slide from their unexpected high finish in 2022 and flogging in the GF. I reckon they will slide to 5-7. They have a quality group of young players who have played a relatively high number of games. The Club has a lot of depth. Weaknesses are rucks and the absence of a big KPD. The mids rely a lot on young players. T McCartin and Mills are easily the most important players to their structur.
 

RobJD

All Australian
Oct 1, 2021
806
1,094
AFL Club
Collingwood
I think this is one of the better threads on the MB conducted in the right spirit. We all are self aware mushrooms.

It is pretty clear most of those that finished in the Top 8 will be highly competitive again, while those that finished outside are at different stages in their efforts to be a quality competitive team. Those at real risk of sliding are:

* the Dogs - Dunkley loss will hurt, while Lobb is a B grade forward. Their defence and forward line are both susso.

* the Tigers - I am not convinced Taranto and Hopper are the solution to the Tigers’ midfield deficiencies. Neither were first string mids in a team that struggled last year. Arguably we have seen their ceiling and it is not the Sistine Chapel, folks. Wonderful servants though each have been, quality contributions from Prestia, the skipper and big Jack cannot be expected to be at the same level as previous years. It is ridiculous to put it on one player but if Dusty returns to anything like his best over the season the Tigs will make the 8.

* the Pies - did wonderfully well in 2022 with some ageing top end talent and some terrific youngsters and of course their ability to win close ones was the stuff of legend. For me their Coach deserved every accolade he got. Titch and McStay are both excellent recruits targeting areas of weakness. Mihocek must be really delighted. That said they have a few injury prone players getting on in their footy lives and many youngsters finding their way. I reckon they will be in a battle for 6-8th with Port.

The Blues, Tigs and the Go Co will be fighting over 8th.

My big improvers from outside the 8 are:

* Port. They have recruited well and surely cannot endure such a poor start again. I reckon they should finish 4-6.

* Gold Coast. Contrary to most I think Dew is doing a pretty good job. King back will help as will natural improvement in a young and talented list that have now quite a bit of experience. I reckon they will be in the 7-10 range and should make the 8.

As for the others, here are some brief thoughts.

* With North importing some solid B graders, some decent drafting and acquiring a proven coach, they should not suffer so many terrible floggings. They will pick up a couple more wins, but still finish last. Their list is distorted from having imported a number of B graders on A grade salaries. It will take some years to fix.

* Hawthorn is in full rebuild mode. Their list is fine but they just need another 2-3 seasons to be competitive on a consistent basis and threaten the 8.

* West Coast had a shocker from injury and Covid. However its immediate future looks bleak. They are overdue a dramatic rebuild. Signing NicNat for two years remains a puzzling decision. Yes my mob re-signed Buddy but it was for one year and he still produced some quality footy in 2022. By contrast Naitanui struggles to play and seemed far too heavy for the joint issues he unhappily suffers from. I see negligible scope for improvement.

* Adelaide has put games into youngsters and has a pretty decent Coach. In Dawson they possess the best kick in the Comp and old fashioned swingman in the Comp. They should experience steady improvement.

* Essendon had a difficult 2022 but has picked up a proven Coach. The list has lots of talent but can Scott persuade notorious one way merchants in Merrett, Parish, Shiel and Stringer to run both ways. If yes they should win a couple more games.

* Lyon has inherited a Saints list dominated by 24yo+ B graders and few out and out quality players. I expect the Saints will fall further from last year.

* While GWS are rebuilding, I think it will be a swift one. Their personnel losses at the draft table are less than most have assessed. They are a sneaky chance to win a few more games and be competitive.

My locked in certainties for the 8 are Geelong, Brisbane, Melbourne, Freo, Bloods. I expect the Pies to make it along with Port and the GoCo.

Finally a very few words on the Blues. Imo they possess the most distorted list in the Comp. In most Rounds they will select around 10 very high quality players but then the rest are Role players at best and few are reliable at that. Like the Dons, their defensive skills are susso, even among some of their elite players. Voss is a terrific Coach but has a lot to do to shape the list. Could make the 8 but I reckon their range is 10-12 wins.

Woops and before I am criticised, I expect the Bloods to slide from their unexpected high finish in 2022 and flogging in the GF. I reckon they will slide to 5-7. They have a quality group of young players who have played a relatively high number of games. The Club has a lot of depth. Weaknesses are rucks and the absence of a big KPD. The mids rely a lot on young players. T McCartin and Mills are easily the most important players to their structur.
Nice post, as a Pies supporter I anticipate another big difference this year will be our ability to cover sides with two tall forwards more effectively - last year we lost our 3 first pick full back style players (Roughead, Dean, Keane) - not many sides have a list that can cover that scenario and we were no exception. We were playing guys like Howe and Murphy out of position as KPD and we struggled against teams with two quality tall forwards - a fit Dean and the recruitment of Frampton is anticipated to allow us to better cover our weaknesses with KPF. The Prelim against the Swans was a good example - we simply couldn't cover both Buddy and Reid, once Reid was injured, the game changed.
 

Makeshift Park

Premiership Player
Aug 6, 2021
3,646
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AFL Club
North Melbourne
Their list is distorted from having imported a number of B graders on A grade salaries. It will take some years to fix.
I take it you’re referring to Logue here. Hardly Carlton levels of ridiculous though, and absolutely critical to our structure.
Who else is there?
Corr and CCJ are probably being overpaid given their output and the tax you pay for hanging out at the bottom of the ladder, but they certainly aren’t on A grade salaries.
Shiels and Howe are on one year contracts.
Tucker I sincerely doubt is on a salary that is particularly remarkable.
Polec is off the books.
 

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Jun 12, 2018
1,713
2,704
AFL Club
Fremantle
I think bombers and gws will surprise a few.
Always get a new coach bounce.
Giants still have plenty of talent and feel Cameron’s message was just getting stale.
So much is between the ears these days and Brad Scott will give bombers a team first mentality and more ticker.
Two things sorely missed at the bombers the last few years.
 

HBFlanker

Premiership Player
Jul 23, 2008
4,627
4,641
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Ive got the pies going 0-4 to start the season.

Long way back from there. The round 2 clash with port will be massive if they lose round 1, as they will be outsiders in round 3 and 4 against Richmond and Brisbane respectively.
 

TheBigHorne

Club Legend
Feb 19, 2022
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Don't ask me about my username
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Ive got the pies going 0-4 to start the season.

Long way back from there. The round 2 clash with port will be massive if they lose round 1, as they will be outsiders in round 3 and 4 against Richmond and Brisbane respectively.
They should be starting 2-2 imo. They win one of Geelong, Richmond or Brisbane and then beat Port at home.
 

Bestbird

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Nov 18, 2004
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West Coast
Other Teams
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* West Coast had a shocker from injury and Covid. However its immediate future looks bleak. They are overdue a dramatic rebuild. Signing NicNat for two years remains a puzzling decision. Yes my mob re-signed Buddy but it was for one year and he still produced some quality footy in 2022. By contrast Naitanui struggles to play and seemed far too heavy for the joint issues he unhappily suffers from. I see negligible scope for improvement.
Pretty tough on NicNat, went down with a serious lower leg injury in Round 4 last year after being AA in the previous 2 years.

Immediate future doesn't look too bad providing a good run with injuries with the likes of Allen, Cole, Yeo, Sheed, McGovern and NicNat who all had no or limited impact in 2022 making a big difference.

In terms of the rebuild.

last year's drafted players in Hough, Bazzo and Culley all looked good at AFL level, shame about our 1st round selection Chesser's injury.
4 draft picks inside 30 this year
Next year an extra 2 & 3 round draft selections
 

Grand Uncle Horace

Hall of Famer
May 24, 2017
41,083
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I take it you’re referring to Logue here. Hardly Carlton levels of ridiculous though, and absolutely critical to our structure.
Who else is there?
Corr and CCJ are probably being overpaid given their output and the tax you pay for hanging out at the bottom of the ladder, but they certainly aren’t on A grade salaries.
Shiels and Howe are on one year contracts.
Tucker I sincerely doubt is on a salary that is particularly remarkable.
Polec is off the books.

Add Sleevo and Hall plus C graders like Greenwood and Bonar on B grade wages.
 

Dazb86

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 31, 2008
14,833
11,770
melbourne
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
It went horribly wrong for the Dogs last year with important players dropping off a cliff in output. I'd be surprised if we put on a repeat performance considering we've bolstered our weakest areas.

I feel like if Bevo stops that 5m off the mark tactic we'll pick up a few more wins for the year.
 

HBFlanker

Premiership Player
Jul 23, 2008
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4,641
Melbourne
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They should be starting 2-2 imo. They win one of Geelong, Richmond or Brisbane and then beat Port at home.

I dont think they will get near Brisbane up there. Richmond have improved massively on last season (on paper) which leaves Geelong as their only chance.

I dont see it.
 

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Jun 12, 2018
1,713
2,704
AFL Club
Fremantle
my out of left field smoky ladder is:

1. blues
2. lions
3. cats
4. pies
5. swans
6. power
7. saints
8. dees

9. tigers
10. gws
11.bombers
12. crows
13. dogs
14.north
15. suns
16. freo
17. eagles
18. hawks
Time to wake up
Dinners on the table
 

demondavey

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 18, 2005
27,615
23,264
AFL Club
Melbourne
Can’t recall if I’ve posted, if not, revised / original predictions.

Richmond
Port Adelaide
Brisbane
Geelong
Melbourne
Sydney
Collingwood
Fremantle

Premier - Port Adelaide
 
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Joao

Brownlow Medallist
May 2, 2017
15,586
28,901
QLD
AFL Club
Fremantle
my out of left field smoky ladder is:

1. blues
2. lions
3. cats
4. pies
5. swans
6. power
7. saints
8. dees

9. tigers
10. gws
11.bombers
12. crows
13. dogs
14.north
15. suns
16. freo
17. eagles
18. hawks
Be hard watching the draft after that season.
 

Milux

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 29, 2013
8,242
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Brisbane
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Brisbane Lions
Mcstay is and always will be a structure player. His goal output was not the reason he played 160 games for the Lions or reason he got 5 years at the pies. Amazing how experienced list mangers have got this so wrong and bigfooty knockabouts have scrubbed a line through Mcstay. The big blokes at the Lions have especially helped guys like Cameron and Mcarthey. I think Mcstay is a bit of a loss for the Lions.
Mcstay was very important to us. Certainly a much bigger loss then most recognise.
 

beerbandit

Club Legend
Mar 7, 2006
1,486
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AFL Club
Collingwood
Ive got the pies going 0-4 to start the season.

Long way back from there. The round 2 clash with port will be massive if they lose round 1, as they will be outsiders in round 3 and 4 against Richmond and Brisbane respectively.
This sounds a lot like 2022.

We will see. 😁
 

beerbandit

Club Legend
Mar 7, 2006
1,486
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AFL Club
Collingwood
Lost to Geelong, Brisbane and Richmond in 2022, so hopefully for the pies sake its not too similar.

I actually give them a chance against Geelong, but not Richmond or Brisbane.
As I said, we will see 😁

You have us losing to Port ? That’s interesting.
 

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