I think this is one of the better threads on the MB conducted in the right spirit. We all are self aware mushrooms.
It is pretty clear most of those that finished in the Top 8 will be highly competitive again, while those that finished outside are at different stages in their efforts to be a quality competitive team. Those at real risk of sliding are:
* the Dogs - Dunkley loss will hurt, while Lobb is a B grade forward. Their defence and forward line are both susso.
* the Tigers - I am not convinced Taranto and Hopper are the solution to the Tigers’ midfield deficiencies. Neither were first string mids in a team that struggled last year. Arguably we have seen their ceiling and it is not the Sistine Chapel, folks. Wonderful servants though each have been, quality contributions from Prestia, the skipper and big Jack cannot be expected to be at the same level as previous years. It is ridiculous to put it on one player but if Dusty returns to anything like his best over the season the Tigs will make the 8.
* the Pies - did wonderfully well in 2022 with some ageing top end talent and some terrific youngsters and of course their ability to win close ones was the stuff of legend. For me their Coach deserved every accolade he got. Titch and McStay are both excellent recruits targeting areas of weakness. Mihocek must be really delighted. That said they have a few injury prone players getting on in their footy lives and many youngsters finding their way. I reckon they will be in a battle for 6-8th with Port.
The Blues, Tigs and the Go Co will be fighting over 8th.
My big improvers from outside the 8 are:
* Port. They have recruited well and surely cannot endure such a poor start again. I reckon they should finish 4-6.
* Gold Coast. Contrary to most I think Dew is doing a pretty good job. King back will help as will natural improvement in a young and talented list that have now quite a bit of experience. I reckon they will be in the 7-10 range and should make the 8.
As for the others, here are some brief thoughts.
* With North importing some solid B graders, some decent drafting and acquiring a proven coach, they should not suffer so many terrible floggings. They will pick up a couple more wins, but still finish last. Their list is distorted from having imported a number of B graders on A grade salaries. It will take some years to fix.
* Hawthorn is in full rebuild mode. Their list is fine but they just need another 2-3 seasons to be competitive on a consistent basis and threaten the 8.
* West Coast had a shocker from injury and Covid. However its immediate future looks bleak. They are overdue a dramatic rebuild. Signing NicNat for two years remains a puzzling decision. Yes my mob re-signed Buddy but it was for one year and he still produced some quality footy in 2022. By contrast Naitanui struggles to play and seemed far too heavy for the joint issues he unhappily suffers from. I see negligible scope for improvement.
* Adelaide has put games into youngsters and has a pretty decent Coach. In Dawson they possess the best kick in the Comp and old fashioned swingman in the Comp. They should experience steady improvement.
* Essendon had a difficult 2022 but has picked up a proven Coach. The list has lots of talent but can Scott persuade notorious one way merchants in Merrett, Parish, Shiel and Stringer to run both ways. If yes they should win a couple more games.
* Lyon has inherited a Saints list dominated by 24yo+ B graders and few out and out quality players. I expect the Saints will fall further from last year.
* While GWS are rebuilding, I think it will be a swift one. Their personnel losses at the draft table are less than most have assessed. They are a sneaky chance to win a few more games and be competitive.
My locked in certainties for the 8 are Geelong, Brisbane, Melbourne, Freo, Bloods. I expect the Pies to make it along with Port and the GoCo.
Finally a very few words on the Blues. Imo they possess the most distorted list in the Comp. In most Rounds they will select around 10 very high quality players but then the rest are Role players at best and few are reliable at that. Like the Dons, their defensive skills are susso, even among some of their elite players. Voss is a terrific Coach but has a lot to do to shape the list. Could make the 8 but I reckon their range is 10-12 wins.
Woops and before I am criticised, I expect the Bloods to slide from their unexpected high finish in 2022 and flogging in the GF. I reckon they will slide to 5-7. They have a quality group of young players who have played a relatively high number of games. The Club has a lot of depth. Weaknesses are rucks and the absence of a big KPD. The mids rely a lot on young players. T McCartin and Mills are easily the most important players to their structur.
It is pretty clear most of those that finished in the Top 8 will be highly competitive again, while those that finished outside are at different stages in their efforts to be a quality competitive team. Those at real risk of sliding are:
* the Dogs - Dunkley loss will hurt, while Lobb is a B grade forward. Their defence and forward line are both susso.
* the Tigers - I am not convinced Taranto and Hopper are the solution to the Tigers’ midfield deficiencies. Neither were first string mids in a team that struggled last year. Arguably we have seen their ceiling and it is not the Sistine Chapel, folks. Wonderful servants though each have been, quality contributions from Prestia, the skipper and big Jack cannot be expected to be at the same level as previous years. It is ridiculous to put it on one player but if Dusty returns to anything like his best over the season the Tigs will make the 8.
* the Pies - did wonderfully well in 2022 with some ageing top end talent and some terrific youngsters and of course their ability to win close ones was the stuff of legend. For me their Coach deserved every accolade he got. Titch and McStay are both excellent recruits targeting areas of weakness. Mihocek must be really delighted. That said they have a few injury prone players getting on in their footy lives and many youngsters finding their way. I reckon they will be in a battle for 6-8th with Port.
The Blues, Tigs and the Go Co will be fighting over 8th.
My big improvers from outside the 8 are:
* Port. They have recruited well and surely cannot endure such a poor start again. I reckon they should finish 4-6.
* Gold Coast. Contrary to most I think Dew is doing a pretty good job. King back will help as will natural improvement in a young and talented list that have now quite a bit of experience. I reckon they will be in the 7-10 range and should make the 8.
As for the others, here are some brief thoughts.
* With North importing some solid B graders, some decent drafting and acquiring a proven coach, they should not suffer so many terrible floggings. They will pick up a couple more wins, but still finish last. Their list is distorted from having imported a number of B graders on A grade salaries. It will take some years to fix.
* Hawthorn is in full rebuild mode. Their list is fine but they just need another 2-3 seasons to be competitive on a consistent basis and threaten the 8.
* West Coast had a shocker from injury and Covid. However its immediate future looks bleak. They are overdue a dramatic rebuild. Signing NicNat for two years remains a puzzling decision. Yes my mob re-signed Buddy but it was for one year and he still produced some quality footy in 2022. By contrast Naitanui struggles to play and seemed far too heavy for the joint issues he unhappily suffers from. I see negligible scope for improvement.
* Adelaide has put games into youngsters and has a pretty decent Coach. In Dawson they possess the best kick in the Comp and old fashioned swingman in the Comp. They should experience steady improvement.
* Essendon had a difficult 2022 but has picked up a proven Coach. The list has lots of talent but can Scott persuade notorious one way merchants in Merrett, Parish, Shiel and Stringer to run both ways. If yes they should win a couple more games.
* Lyon has inherited a Saints list dominated by 24yo+ B graders and few out and out quality players. I expect the Saints will fall further from last year.
* While GWS are rebuilding, I think it will be a swift one. Their personnel losses at the draft table are less than most have assessed. They are a sneaky chance to win a few more games and be competitive.
My locked in certainties for the 8 are Geelong, Brisbane, Melbourne, Freo, Bloods. I expect the Pies to make it along with Port and the GoCo.
Finally a very few words on the Blues. Imo they possess the most distorted list in the Comp. In most Rounds they will select around 10 very high quality players but then the rest are Role players at best and few are reliable at that. Like the Dons, their defensive skills are susso, even among some of their elite players. Voss is a terrific Coach but has a lot to do to shape the list. Could make the 8 but I reckon their range is 10-12 wins.
Woops and before I am criticised, I expect the Bloods to slide from their unexpected high finish in 2022 and flogging in the GF. I reckon they will slide to 5-7. They have a quality group of young players who have played a relatively high number of games. The Club has a lot of depth. Weaknesses are rucks and the absence of a big KPD. The mids rely a lot on young players. T McCartin and Mills are easily the most important players to their structur.
