Prediction The Very early 2023 Ladder Predictions

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Bunnings

Team Captain
Mar 19, 2022
336
358
AFL Club
Geelong
It definitely does, if Geelong played their home games at MCGinstea of GMHB stadium then those game that are line ball at home would be mch harder to win, ie Melbourne and the Dogs this season. The fixture has a huge amount o do with how when teams do in the season. If yu had one of the hardest draws where you play Geelong, Brisbane and Swans back to back to back than you might win one of those but lose he other two and come away from them with injuries and a lower confidence from losing two games but if you play say essendon, North and Hawks and win all three then you have a confidence boost that can help you beat a team like Melbourne who had just lost a couple.
Please see below link
Cats last 20 games at kardinia park
16 w 4 l

Cats last 20 games at MCG (mainly playing MCG tenants/finals)
15 w 5 l

I don’t expect a reply, enjoy the off season, god bless

 

Freomaniac

Brownlow Medallist
May 3, 2007
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Man City, Valencia, Lazio, Panthers
It definitely does, if Geelong played their home games at MCGinstea of GMHB stadium then those game that are line ball at home would be mch harder to win, ie Melbourne and the Dogs this season. The fixture has a huge amount o do with how when teams do in the season. If yu had one of the hardest draws where you play Geelong, Brisbane and Swans back to back to back than you might win one of those but lose he other two and come away from them with injuries and a lower confidence from losing two games but if you play say essendon, North and Hawks and win all three then you have a confidence boost that can help you beat a team like Melbourne who had just lost a couple.
Freo had a tough draw this season.... shows how impressive it was freo getting 15 wins and 1 draw from 22 games and a finals win.

Had finals contenders saints and blues twice, Demons twice. Had cats in Geelong which is an instant loss to most sides.

Had eagles twice, but thats always was gonna happen but they were 9th last year. Had gws twice, who made finals in 2021, who dropped to bottom 4.
 

bomberlegend2007

Premiership Player
Apr 3, 2007
4,073
3,322
Victoria
AFL Club
Essendon
  1. Melbourne
  2. Geelong
  3. Fremantle
  4. Richmond
  5. Collingwood
  6. Carlton
  7. Essendon
  8. Sydney
  9. Gold Coast
  10. Brisbane
  11. Western Bulldogs
  12. Port Adelaide
  13. St Kilda
  14. Adelaide
  15. GWS
  16. Hawthorn
  17. North Melbourne
  18. West Coast
 

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Frank Grimes

Premiership Player
May 8, 2007
4,386
8,471
between two bowling alley
AFL Club
Richmond
Next years ladder is probably the hardest to make a prediction. There is a valid reason for most teams to both fall and rise and they can go either way. Carlton are about the only team I expect to be a bolter.

1. Melbourne
2. Sydney
3. Carlton
4. Richmond
5. Geelong
6. Fremantle
7. Brisbane
8. Port Adelaide
9. Collingwood
10. Saints
11. Gold Coast
12. Bulldogs
13. GWS
14. Adelaide
15. West Coast
16. Hawthorn
17. North Melbourne
18. Essendon
 

BuffDog

All Australian
Nov 10, 2009
965
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Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
1. Carlton (P)
2. Melbourne
3. Geelong
4. Richmond (RU)
5. Sydney
6. Brisbane
7. Fremantle
8. Port Adelaide

9. Western Bulldogs
10. Collingwood
11. Gold Coast
12. St Kilda
13. Adelaide
14. Hawthorn
15. North Melbourne
16. GWS
17. West Coast
18. Essendon
 

Shadow89

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 20, 2018
13,303
31,707
AFL Club
Geelong
1. Sydney
2. Brisbane (RU)
3. Richmond
4. Collingwood (P)
5. Carlton
6. Geelong
7. Melbourne
8. Port Adelaide
9. Gold Coast
10. Western Bulldogs
11. Fremantle
12. Adelaide
13. St Kilda
14. Hawthorn
15. GWS
16. North Melbourne
17. Essendon
18. West Coast
 

juss

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Feb 23, 2009
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Next years ladder is probably the hardest to make a prediction. There is a valid reason for most teams to both fall and rise and they can go either way. Carlton are about the only team I expect to be a bolter.

1. Melbourne
2. Sydney
3. Carlton
4. Richmond
5. Geelong
6. Fremantle
7. Brisbane
8. Port Adelaide
9. Collingwood
10. Saints
11. Gold Coast
12. Bulldogs
13. GWS
14. Adelaide
15. West Coast
16. Hawthorn
17. North Melbourne
18. Essendon
Yes and also because between the 2022 season and next season, we are pretty much the furthest time possible from the start of the season we can be.

Trade, draft, FA periods and preseason injuries/ off season dramas and the 2023 fixture will all impact the 2023 ladder predictions.

All we have right now is 2022 form, and a guess for the rest of it.
 

jsdsgn

Club Legend
Oct 29, 2018
1,121
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Collingwood
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So…pretty damn similar to this year then? 😅
At this stage yes because its hard to see who will dramatically rise and fall. Itll change after the trade period. I can see WCE rising to about 13th though.
 

timokane

All Australian
Oct 2, 2018
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For what its worth here is mine:

1. Melbourne
2. Collingwood
3. Brisbane
4. Swans
5. Geelong
6. Carlton
7. Dogs
8. St Kilda

9. Freo
10. GWS
11. Richmond
12. Power
13. Crows
14. Suns
15. North
16. Essendon
17. West coast
18. Hawthorn
 

timokane

All Australian
Oct 2, 2018
966
768
AFL Club
Collingwood
i think Melbourne will get back on top.
Time for both Blues and Saints to finally make finals be that an elim final at that.
Cats to drop a few spots into 5.
Swans just to scrape into 4th
Dogs over due for a finals as well
Raft of teams that could make it or miss out as well like richmond power gws freo they all however can make finals probably fighting it out for the last 2 spots you can add saints in there as well or even the dogs. Ill say tigers just get in along with either dogs or freo.
Times ticking but Brisbane 1 more go at top 4
Collingwood top 4 again and play lions in a qualify final at the MCG
Melbourne and Swans in the other QF.
Bottom 4 hawks eagles bombers and roos
Suns Crows to come up a tad. Crows are kind of level back in with the Power i feel.
As in hardest to pick are the likes of Freo and GWS and Power just so undecided on these teams.
Really not sure on what to make on GWS huge unknowen.
 

Phipppppa

No.1 Zach Guthrie Fan
Jan 8, 2022
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Geelong
AFL Club
Geelong
1. Sydney (P)
2. Melbourne
3. Collingwood
4. Richmond (RU)
5. Geelong
6. Carlton
7. Brisbane
8. Port Adelaide

9. Western Bulldogs
10. St Kilda
11. Fremantle
12. Gold Coast
13. Adelaide
14. North Melbourne
15. Hawthorn
16. West Coast
17. Essendon
18. GWS
 

The_torpedo

IYKYK ;)
Sep 16, 2016
1,732
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I have no idea
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Western Bulldogs
Other Teams
Quite a few
At this point its total guesswork

Buuuut:

1. Cats
2. Lions
3. Swans
4. Dees
5. Blues
6. Pies
7. Dockers
8. Tigers

9. Suns
10. Bulldogs
11. Saints
12. Crows
13. Bombers
14. Power
15. Kangas
16. Eagles
17. Hawks
18. Giants

Once trade/free agency period, the draft and the fixture release are done I'll probably revise this
 

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Milanista28

Brownlow Medallist
Dec 2, 2014
17,001
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Essendon
1. Geelong
2. Carlton
3. Collingwood
4. Richmond
5. Melbourne
6. Brisbane
7. Gold Coast
8. Fremantle
9. Sydney
10. Western Bulldogs
11. Adelaide
12. Hawthorn
13. Essendon
14. Port Adelaide
15. West Coast
16. North Melbourne
17. St Kilda
18. GWS

Finals
QF 1: Geelong def Richmond
QF 2: Carlton def by Collingwood
EF 1: Melbourne def Fremantle
EF 2: Brisbane def Gold Coast

Semi 1: Richmond def by Melbourne
Semi 2: Carlton def Brisbane

PF 1: Geelong def by Carlton
PF 2: Collingwood def Melbourne

Grand Final
Collingwood 28.13 181
Carlton 4.4 28
As much as I hate Collingwood I'd probably enjoy that game
 

Gazza Greatness

Team Captain
Oct 11, 2008
532
807
Werribee
AFL Club
Geelong
Carlton had an easy draw when it was announced. But because teams like Pies, Dockers and Tigers improved significantly from 2021 the Blues ended up with one of the hardest.
Agree to some point with this as with Geelong it was the opposite, the fixture ended up being easier for the opposite reasons.
Yes and also because between the 2022 season and next season, we are pretty much the furthest time possible from the start of the season we can be.

Trade, draft, FA periods and preseason injuries/ off season dramas and the 2023 fixture will all impact the 2023 ladder predictions.

All we have right now is 2022 form, and a guess for the rest of it.
Excellent call juss which in away is great because it gives hope to all supporters from all clubs.... after-all it's hope, that we all the supporters live for.
 

Nicho50

All Australian
Apr 20, 2022
759
860
AFL Club
Richmond
Always hard for teams to back it up after a flag will it happen to Geelong? Already an ageing list but do any of the older guys like Danger, Hawkins, Tuohy etc drop in form at all? They are a very smart club that recruit well so I can't see them dropping out of the top 4 next year but can they keep the hunger up? Do other clubs catch up to them by adding recruits? Lions will have a very good midfield if Dunkley and Ashcroft end up in there but the key forwards are an issue?

I am just assuming that all names so far linked to clubs end up there so guessing it

1. Geelong
2. Melbourne - Grundy will be a big in , they should get mojo back.
3. Lions - Stronger midfield depth, plenty of home game wins.
4/5 Richmond - Tarranto and Hopper are huge ins for the midfield. Bolton and Lynch to back up big seasons
4/5 Collingwood - Could easily finish from 1-5. Great exciting list only concern is that all names linked to them outside of Tom Mitchell are very questionable for mine, where do Frampton, Hill and McStay fit in that side? McStay isn't the KPF answer they are looking for. Does Degoey stay? If he leaves it will be a huge hole.
6. Sydney - Recent history shows most sides that lose the GF have tough seasons following. Again could easily finish anywhere in the top 8. Key forward targets a big issue and Rampe getting on.
7. Carlton - Blew a huge chance to make the 8 but should make it this season if they get on a roll will threaten top four but I see them as bottom half of the 8 with a view to the following season being a real threat.
8. Gold Coast - Finally time for them to arrive. King back backing them in to go a step further than last year.

9. Bulldogs - Missed the boat with the list they had.
10. Essendon - Will perform far better than last year with a new coach on board.
11. Fremantle - Is Jackson worth the hype, there is a fair bit going out in Logue, Acres, & potentially Lobb, replacing Mundy and can Fyfe stay on the park? Think its a step backwards before they go forwards again.

Throw a blanket over the rest.
 

Fadge

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
10,687
9,330
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Ultimately a % of 104 meant the pies had to go through the premiers week 1 and were playing a prelim in Sydney. Cost them a gf berth.
Yep, Collingwood should have lost a couple of more games, but won the games they did win by bigger margins to ensure they had a decent percentage - something like 120%.

They would have had a much better chance in the finals if that were the case.

🤦‍♂️ 🤦‍♂️ 🤦‍♂️
 

Fadge

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
10,687
9,330
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Freo had a tough draw this season.... shows how impressive it was freo getting 15 wins and 1 draw from 22 games and a finals win.

Had finals contenders saints and blues twice, Demons twice. Had cats in Geelong which is an instant loss to most sides.

Had eagles twice, but thats always was gonna happen but they were 9th last year. Had gws twice, who made finals in 2021, who dropped to bottom 4.
So a tough draw is playing the 5th, 9th, 10th, 15th and 17th placed teams twice?

🤦‍♂️ 🤦‍♂️ 🤦‍♂️
 

Freomaniac

Brownlow Medallist
May 3, 2007
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Man City, Valencia, Lazio, Panthers
So a tough draw is playing the 5th, 9th, 10th, 15th and 17th placed teams twice?

🤦‍♂️ 🤦‍♂️ 🤦‍♂️
well 1st off, very few people excpected the demons to go from 2021 premiers to straigh sets exit in 2022.

eagles dropped obviously ut they were 9th last season. GWS were 16th, but made finals in 2021.

carlton and saints were finals contenders.
 

Fadge

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 4, 2007
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well 1st off, very few people excpected the demons to go from 2021 premiers to straigh sets exit in 2022.

eagles dropped obviously ut they were 9th last season. GWS were 16th, but made finals in 2021.

carlton and saints were finals contenders.
So how much harder than everyone else's draw was it?

I'm having this discussion in another thread, there are so many variables in determining the relative difficulty of teams' draws. In game injuries to opponents, form of opponents at the time you play them, availability of playing personnel. Great example is Brisbane - they were a very different team when they played Essendon late in the season than they were in most other home and away games. I've had about 20 different Carlton supporters tell me their injury list was 19 players at one stage - it would have been nice to play them that week. Collingwood match up well against Melbourne and beat them twice.

In the end, the variances in levels of difficulty due to different teams' draws is negligible.

Do you think Freo missed a top 4 spot because their draw was harder than a team who made the top 4?

Can you name a team who has missed the top 4 as a direct result of the difficulty of their draw?
 

MickG88

Club Legend
May 19, 2017
1,132
1,203
AFL Club
St Kilda
Please see below link
Cats last 20 games at kardinia park
16 w 4 l

Cats last 20 games at MCG (mainly playing MCG tenants/finals)
15 w 5 l

I don’t expect a reply, enjoy the off season, god bless

MCG
Essendon
Collingwood
Hawks(lost)
Richmond
Carlton

GMBHA
Dockers(lost)
Lions
Port
Crows
North
Demons
Bulldogs
Eagles

Where are all these hard games at the MCG? Collingwood and Richmond from the top 8 compared to Demons, Bulldogs, Lions and Dockers at home. I see your figures back up the way Cats fans see it but the reality is that this year Cats were looked after very well by a soft draw. My statement is apted. Congrats on winning the premiership.

PS I left out the finals games as Geelong had no choice but to play there, if it were up to them they would of rather played at GMHBA stadium.
 

Freomaniac

Brownlow Medallist
May 3, 2007
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Man City, Valencia, Lazio, Panthers
So how much harder than everyone else's draw was it?

I'm having this discussion in another thread, there are so many variables in determining the relative difficulty of teams' draws. In game injuries to opponents, form of opponents at the time you play them, availability of playing personnel. Great example is Brisbane - they were a very different team when they played Essendon late in the season than they were in most other home and away games. I've had about 20 different Carlton supporters tell me their injury list was 19 players at one stage - it would have been nice to play them that week. Collingwood match up well against Melbourne and beat them twice.

In the end, the variances in levels of difficulty due to different teams' draws is negligible.

Do you think Freo missed a top 4 spot because their draw was harder than a team who made the top 4?

Can you name a team who has missed the top 4 as a direct result of the difficulty of their draw?
when the fixture came out it was hard.

Freo missed out on top 4 because Swans and Magpies were better.

I am in the minority about freo.

I was happy freo got 5th and got a home final rather than getting 4th and go out in straight sets.

Freo won 8 games at home. They lost 4 games in Perth: Saints, Magpies, Demons and swans beat freo in perth.

Now I see why so many carlton posters dislike you.

Had freo got 4th in 2022, they would of lost to cats in the mcg on the Qualifying final. then lost to either swans or magpies in the semis.
 

MickG88

Club Legend
May 19, 2017
1,132
1,203
AFL Club
St Kilda
So how much harder than everyone else's draw was it?

I'm having this discussion in another thread, there are so many variables in determining the relative difficulty of teams' draws. In game injuries to opponents, form of opponents at the time you play them, availability of playing personnel. Great example is Brisbane - they were a very different team when they played Essendon late in the season than they were in most other home and away games. I've had about 20 different Carlton supporters tell me their injury list was 19 players at one stage - it would have been nice to play them that week. Collingwood match up well against Melbourne and beat them twice.

In the end, the variances in levels of difficulty due to different teams' draws is negligible.

Do you think Freo missed a top 4 spot because their draw was harder than a team who made the top 4?

Can you name a team who has missed the top 4 as a direct result of the difficulty of their draw?
Saints played Geelong, Swans, Lions and Dockers twice. Against the top 6 teams we played 10 games. That's pretty hard, yeah? In the first Cats game, Steele did his AC Joint and continued to play the whole game, missed 6 weeks. In the Lions game (Gabba) we had one rotation for 1 and a half quarters.
 

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