1. Melbourne
2. Geelong
3. Brisbane
4.-14. Anything can happen
15. West Coast
16. GWS
17. North
18. Hawthorn
2. Geelong
3. Brisbane
4.-14. Anything can happen
15. West Coast
16. GWS
17. North
18. Hawthorn
Last edited:
Prediction 2023 Ladder Prediction Thread
- Thread starter Connar
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I read What said twice, both times you have not given me or anyone else enough confidence to elevate the Lions above all as predicted by a bunch of hack journalists and the mob on here. Sorry Dunkley and Gunstan aren’t the POD you think they are. Refer to your defeats to the Demons twice and cats debacle. These are your direct peers and then you have other teams hunting a top 4 spot, can the lions overcome those obstacles. I’m saying no atm. Great time of the year, even the Kangas, the Eagles even the Bombers have chance at this time of year.
No worries genius. Let’s me guess your gun recruiter for which top club to have such a in depth educated opinion. Go to sleep to bloke the world didn’t need your input on this matter.
Strapping Young Lad
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Where do you have Collingwood finishing?
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I think you need to read what I wrote again, because it seems you just read “Dunkley, Gunston” and then ignored all other points and reasons I made that contributed to those poor performances. You’ve also gone down the “I speak for other people” and the “Footy media and other posters are wrong” lines, which isn’t a valid argument either in this setting considering what you are responding to.
I just think both swans and dees will slip only 1 spot.
dees well other teams are working them out. they are very good team but i feel they may have too much reliance on how the gawn and grundy thing will work out.
swans its a case of a long deep breath was one of the star teams in 22 but feel its a case of a reassement in order to go forward again in 24 same as the pies i guess.
My top 4 is lions,cats,tigers and pies
dees well other teams are working them out. they are very good team but i feel they may have too much reliance on how the gawn and grundy thing will work out.
swans its a case of a long deep breath was one of the star teams in 22 but feel its a case of a reassement in order to go forward again in 24 same as the pies i guess.
My top 4 is lions,cats,tigers and pies
eth-dog
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Yeah, you showed me champ. This is a football discussion forum, there will be different opinions.
eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Nah that isn't allowed
Mr MysteryGuest
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These 5 rules predict who’ll crash out of the AFL top eight. There’s one big surprise
These 5 rules project who’ll crash out of the top eight. There’s one big surprise: AFL Predicted Ladderwww.foxsports.com.au
Posting this article from last year here as a reminder that roughly 3 changes to the 8 each year and 1 new top 8 team will generally jump from outside the 8 into the top 4.
Last season was no exception, with 3 falling out (GWS, Port & Ess) and Collingwood coming from outside the top 8 to finish top 4.
Not mentioned here, but I think 18 out of the last 22 years (or close to it), one of the bottom 6 sides has made finals.
I can see this year being one of the exceptions
Melbourne had issues with key players last year, including McDonald, Salem, Lever, and at the pointy end when Petracca had a crack in his leg, Oliver was hampered by a broken thumb (courtesy of Selwood), and Gawn had groin issues.
With Hunter finally solving one wing, Grundy ensuring the opposition always has an AA ruckman to deal with, McDonald, Lever and Salem over their injuries, van Rooyen coming into the forward line, Petracca and Oliver in their absolute prime and a host of young players with another year under their belt - Rivers, Pickett, Sparrow, Bowey, Petty... I'll be very surprised if we're not demonstrably better than 2022.
We're better placed to recover from a poor end of year than Geelong was coming off an 83 point prelim thumping the year before.
hawkman
Hall of Famer
That is usually said every year before the season though. No one saw Collingwood coming last year
eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Who's the most likely of the bottom 6?
North no
West Coast no
GWS unlikely
Essendon probably not
Adelaide most likely
Hawthorne no.
hawkman
Hall of Famer
I agree it looks unlikely but most years it looks unlikely however there is still usually a team that surprises
It might be Essendon
as another poster said, 3 changes are likely for the 8 with one team jumping up from missing finals to top 4
that being said, youd have to go blues top 4 as much as i love shitting on them, youd think theyve got the calibre of players to make the jump finally
dogs probably most likely to miss the 8 youd think and unfortunately probably freo as well
then ive got melbourne missing for a bit of fun, but could see the pies dropping as well
that being said, youd have to go blues top 4 as much as i love shitting on them, youd think theyve got the calibre of players to make the jump finally
dogs probably most likely to miss the 8 youd think and unfortunately probably freo as well
then ive got melbourne missing for a bit of fun, but could see the pies dropping as well
RobJD
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Agree, will be interesting to see how the Gawn/Grundy dynamic works out. First I've seen that Gawn was hampered by a groin injury - he was clearly below his best in the 2nd half of last year. Grundy isn't a like-for-like replacement for Jackson, so there'll be some tweaks to the game plan. My guess is that Gawn spends more time forward as he is a better contested mark (albeit around the ground rather than as a pure forward) and more likely to kick goals than Grundy - that said, I'd rate Jackson was a better forward than Gawn (so a net negative there). On the ball, Grundy isn't as good a tap ruckman as Gawn - so again, if Grundy spends more time on ball, then less effective hitouts. Grundy's one wood is his ability to win the clearance (not that the Demons are short on options there). Gawn is clearly a better ruck than Jackson, so the demons should dominate clearances again this year. Hunter looks to be a great pickup. The big question for me is who kicks Melbourne's goals - Pickett should benefit from having Gawn forward, McDonald and Brown are aging, van Rooyan and Jefferson are untried and Schache is a throw at the stumps.
Fritsch has kicked 50+ two years in a row. In fact, over the last two years only Hawkins has kicked more goals.
Pickett has kicked 40 goals two years in a row.
McDonald is still only 30, which is a baby compared to Hawkins, Riewoldt... And he's been a standout at training.
Gawn, Brown, Grundy ? We'll have to see.
We need Petracca to kick straight, if he does he'll kick 25+.
van Rooyen is a pretty safe bet to be good, not great, but handy. He turns 20 a month into the season, so isn't a stick thin 18 year old. 36 goals in his first year in the VFL was good.
We won 17 games in a row with a forward-line that was no better. It wasn't the forward-line that caused our demise last year, although missing McDonald didn't help.
It's far from the best forward-line, but we're rarely out of a game with the quality of the defence and midfield.
RobJD
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Thanks Trav 20 - haven't seen anything of van Rooyen, I'll keep an eye out for him - nice when you see a young key forward develop (from what I remember it's been too long for us Collingwood supporters!). Do you think you've got the Jackson dynamic covered?
I'm disappointed to lose Jackson after just 3 seasons. You don't mind when some players move on, but he has so much promise and upside. Unfortunately, he'll never play his best footy at the Dees, so it's disappointing. But he'll always be a MFC person due to the flag.
I suspect we won't lose anything in the short-term (next couple of years), but Max and Brodie is an unknown.
Grand Uncle Horace
Shake down the thunder
I think this is one of the better threads on the MB conducted in the right spirit. We all are self aware mushrooms.
It is pretty clear most of those that finished in the Top 8 will be highly competitive again, while those that finished outside are at different stages in their efforts to be a quality competitive team. Those at real risk of sliding are:
* the Dogs - Dunkley loss will hurt, while Lobb is a B grade forward. Their defence and forward line are both susso.
* the Tigers - I am not convinced Taranto and Hopper are the solution to the Tigers’ midfield deficiencies. Neither were first string mids in a team that struggled last year. Arguably we have seen their ceiling and it is not the Sistine Chapel, folks. Wonderful servants though each have been, quality contributions from Prestia, the skipper and big Jack cannot be expected to be at the same level as previous years. It is ridiculous to put it on one player but if Dusty returns to anything like his best over the season the Tigs will make the 8.
* the Pies - did wonderfully well in 2022 with some ageing top end talent and some terrific youngsters and of course their ability to win close ones was the stuff of legend. For me their Coach deserved every accolade he got. Titch and McStay are both excellent recruits targeting areas of weakness. Mihocek must be really delighted. That said they have a few injury prone players getting on in their footy lives and many youngsters finding their way. I reckon they will be in a battle for 6-8th with Port.
The Blues, Tigs and the Go Co will be fighting over 8th.
My big improvers from outside the 8 are:
* Port. They have recruited well and surely cannot endure such a poor start again. I reckon they should finish 4-6.
* Gold Coast. Contrary to most I think Dew is doing a pretty good job. King back will help as will natural improvement in a young and talented list that have now quite a bit of experience. I reckon they will be in the 7-10 range and should make the 8.
As for the others, here are some brief thoughts.
* With North importing some solid B graders, some decent drafting and acquiring a proven coach, they should not suffer so many terrible floggings. They will pick up a couple more wins, but still finish last. Their list is distorted from having imported a number of B graders on A grade salaries. It will take some years to fix.
* Hawthorn is in full rebuild mode. Their list is fine but they just need another 2-3 seasons to be competitive on a consistent basis and threaten the 8.
* West Coast had a shocker from injury and Covid. However its immediate future looks bleak. They are overdue a dramatic rebuild. Signing NicNat for two years remains a puzzling decision. Yes my mob re-signed Buddy but it was for one year and he still produced some quality footy in 2022. By contrast Naitanui struggles to play and seemed far too heavy for the joint issues he unhappily suffers from. I see negligible scope for improvement.
* Adelaide has put games into youngsters and has a pretty decent Coach. In Dawson they possess the best kick in the Comp and old fashioned swingman in the Comp. They should experience steady improvement.
* Essendon had a difficult 2022 but has picked up a proven Coach. The list has lots of talent but can Scott persuade notorious one way merchants in Merrett, Parish, Shiel and Stringer to run both ways. If yes they should win a couple more games.
* Lyon has inherited a Saints list dominated by 24yo+ B graders and few out and out quality players. I expect the Saints will fall further from last year.
* While GWS are rebuilding, I think it will be a swift one. Their personnel losses at the draft table are less than most have assessed. They are a sneaky chance to win a few more games and be competitive.
My locked in certainties for the 8 are Geelong, Brisbane, Melbourne, Freo, Bloods. I expect the Pies to make it along with Port and the GoCo.
Finally a very few words on the Blues. Imo they possess the most distorted list in the Comp. In most Rounds they will select around 10 very high quality players but then the rest are Role players at best and few are reliable at that. Like the Dons, their defensive skills are susso, even among some of their elite players. Voss is a terrific Coach but has a lot to do to shape the list. Could make the 8 but I reckon their range is 10-12 wins.
Woops and before I am criticised, I expect the Bloods to slide from their unexpected high finish in 2022 and flogging in the GF. I reckon they will slide to 5-7. They have a quality group of young players who have played a relatively high number of games. The Club has a lot of depth. Weaknesses are rucks and the absence of a big KPD. The mids rely a lot on young players. T McCartin and Mills are easily the most important players to their structur.
It is pretty clear most of those that finished in the Top 8 will be highly competitive again, while those that finished outside are at different stages in their efforts to be a quality competitive team. Those at real risk of sliding are:
* the Dogs - Dunkley loss will hurt, while Lobb is a B grade forward. Their defence and forward line are both susso.
* the Tigers - I am not convinced Taranto and Hopper are the solution to the Tigers’ midfield deficiencies. Neither were first string mids in a team that struggled last year. Arguably we have seen their ceiling and it is not the Sistine Chapel, folks. Wonderful servants though each have been, quality contributions from Prestia, the skipper and big Jack cannot be expected to be at the same level as previous years. It is ridiculous to put it on one player but if Dusty returns to anything like his best over the season the Tigs will make the 8.
* the Pies - did wonderfully well in 2022 with some ageing top end talent and some terrific youngsters and of course their ability to win close ones was the stuff of legend. For me their Coach deserved every accolade he got. Titch and McStay are both excellent recruits targeting areas of weakness. Mihocek must be really delighted. That said they have a few injury prone players getting on in their footy lives and many youngsters finding their way. I reckon they will be in a battle for 6-8th with Port.
The Blues, Tigs and the Go Co will be fighting over 8th.
My big improvers from outside the 8 are:
* Port. They have recruited well and surely cannot endure such a poor start again. I reckon they should finish 4-6.
* Gold Coast. Contrary to most I think Dew is doing a pretty good job. King back will help as will natural improvement in a young and talented list that have now quite a bit of experience. I reckon they will be in the 7-10 range and should make the 8.
As for the others, here are some brief thoughts.
* With North importing some solid B graders, some decent drafting and acquiring a proven coach, they should not suffer so many terrible floggings. They will pick up a couple more wins, but still finish last. Their list is distorted from having imported a number of B graders on A grade salaries. It will take some years to fix.
* Hawthorn is in full rebuild mode. Their list is fine but they just need another 2-3 seasons to be competitive on a consistent basis and threaten the 8.
* West Coast had a shocker from injury and Covid. However its immediate future looks bleak. They are overdue a dramatic rebuild. Signing NicNat for two years remains a puzzling decision. Yes my mob re-signed Buddy but it was for one year and he still produced some quality footy in 2022. By contrast Naitanui struggles to play and seemed far too heavy for the joint issues he unhappily suffers from. I see negligible scope for improvement.
* Adelaide has put games into youngsters and has a pretty decent Coach. In Dawson they possess the best kick in the Comp and old fashioned swingman in the Comp. They should experience steady improvement.
* Essendon had a difficult 2022 but has picked up a proven Coach. The list has lots of talent but can Scott persuade notorious one way merchants in Merrett, Parish, Shiel and Stringer to run both ways. If yes they should win a couple more games.
* Lyon has inherited a Saints list dominated by 24yo+ B graders and few out and out quality players. I expect the Saints will fall further from last year.
* While GWS are rebuilding, I think it will be a swift one. Their personnel losses at the draft table are less than most have assessed. They are a sneaky chance to win a few more games and be competitive.
My locked in certainties for the 8 are Geelong, Brisbane, Melbourne, Freo, Bloods. I expect the Pies to make it along with Port and the GoCo.
Finally a very few words on the Blues. Imo they possess the most distorted list in the Comp. In most Rounds they will select around 10 very high quality players but then the rest are Role players at best and few are reliable at that. Like the Dons, their defensive skills are susso, even among some of their elite players. Voss is a terrific Coach but has a lot to do to shape the list. Could make the 8 but I reckon their range is 10-12 wins.
Woops and before I am criticised, I expect the Bloods to slide from their unexpected high finish in 2022 and flogging in the GF. I reckon they will slide to 5-7. They have a quality group of young players who have played a relatively high number of games. The Club has a lot of depth. Weaknesses are rucks and the absence of a big KPD. The mids rely a lot on young players. T McCartin and Mills are easily the most important players to their structur.
RobJD
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Nice post, as a Pies supporter I anticipate another big difference this year will be our ability to cover sides with two tall forwards more effectively - last year we lost our 3 first pick full back style players (Roughead, Dean, Keane) - not many sides have a list that can cover that scenario and we were no exception. We were playing guys like Howe and Murphy out of position as KPD and we struggled against teams with two quality tall forwards - a fit Dean and the recruitment of Frampton is anticipated to allow us to better cover our weaknesses with KPF. The Prelim against the Swans was a good example - we simply couldn't cover both Buddy and Reid, once Reid was injured, the game changed.
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I take it you’re referring to Logue here. Hardly Carlton levels of ridiculous though, and absolutely critical to our structure.
Who else is there?
Corr and CCJ are probably being overpaid given their output and the tax you pay for hanging out at the bottom of the ladder, but they certainly aren’t on A grade salaries.
Shiels and Howe are on one year contracts.
Tucker I sincerely doubt is on a salary that is particularly remarkable.
Polec is off the books.
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I think bombers and gws will surprise a few.
Always get a new coach bounce.
Giants still have plenty of talent and feel Cameron’s message was just getting stale.
So much is between the ears these days and Brad Scott will give bombers a team first mentality and more ticker.
Two things sorely missed at the bombers the last few years.
Always get a new coach bounce.
Giants still have plenty of talent and feel Cameron’s message was just getting stale.
So much is between the ears these days and Brad Scott will give bombers a team first mentality and more ticker.
Two things sorely missed at the bombers the last few years.
