Strapping Young Lad
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What is this a snip of? There’s no reference points at the top of it, and no link.
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Prediction 2023 Ladder Prediction Thread
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Collingwood and Sydney make the 8 with a leg in the air.
- Sep 25, 2013
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Read this article. It’s game plan related.
Proof Blues have no excuse for horror flaw; issue that can expose two contenders: Champion Index
Proof Blues have no excuse for horror flaw; issue that can expose two contenders: Champion Index
www.foxsports.com.au
Curnow, Mckay, Weitering, Walsh, Cerra, Fisher all another year older and either in or entering their prime. Add in Saad, Docherty, Cripps as the experienced guys, albeit still young enough themselves, they have a great mix.
They make it comfortably.
Kane McGoodwin
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Good point, given there are nearly always 2-3 changes to the finals teams.
Law of averages says 5th, 6th & 8th drop out & someone from outside the 8 rockets into the top 4.
So something like...
1 Brisbane
2 Richmond
3 Geelong
4 Carlton
5 Sydney
6 Collingwood
7 Gold Coast
8 Port
9 Melbourne
10 Fremantle
11 Adelaide
12 Western Bulldogs
13 West Coast
14 St Kilda
15 Greater Western Sydney
16 Essendon
17 North Melbourne
18 Hawthorn
Poster is correct, in terms of one on one contests where Weiteringhad a contested loss ratio of 30.4, but the stat isn't the main component when judging KPDs, as Barass rated at 34.5
I mean Lever went at 21.2, Andrews 21.6, Moore 13.3, May 10.6 contested loss, but Mitch McGovern must be better than all of them, given he lost 10% of his contests
Mind you, Weitering numbers in 2021 were 20.8 and 2020 15.1, so poster calling him soft is laughable
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I’ll accept that Carlton has one of, if not the best spine in the comp, but the price they have paid is that their greater list is the most uneven of any finals contender.
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- Mar 25, 2019
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U do know he cooked his shoulder before the bye this year and was no where near his best physically afterwards right? Years previous he had a rate of 20% and 15% and was arguably the best one on one defender in the game overall
Coach Killer
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1. Geelong - won't drop off
2. Richmond - great off season.
3. Melbourne - class
4. Brisbane - thereabouts
5. Hawthorn - will be coming home like a train.
6. Fremantle - hard to beat at home
7. Dogs - making up the numbers
8. Sydney - sneak in on percentage
-----------------------------------------------
9. Carlton - miss on %
10. Collingwood - miss on %
11 to last - no one cares.
Geelong v Hawthorn GF.
Hawks win by 10 Goals.
2. Richmond - great off season.
3. Melbourne - class
4. Brisbane - thereabouts
5. Hawthorn - will be coming home like a train.
6. Fremantle - hard to beat at home
7. Dogs - making up the numbers
8. Sydney - sneak in on percentage
-----------------------------------------------
9. Carlton - miss on %
10. Collingwood - miss on %
11 to last - no one cares.
Geelong v Hawthorn GF.
Hawks win by 10 Goals.
I have no idea where the Cats finish but 2 fringe midfielders from bottom 8 sides and a fringe forward from the second worst forward line in the top 8 is no guarantee of anything.
We had pretty much identical home and away records last year and were the best travelling team for the year. 3 of our 5 worst performances came at home too.
Rest of it seems on the money.
00Stinger
100 - 7
Strapping Young Lad
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Crows have Port, Tigers, Blues, Pies, Geelong, Dockers, Lions and Dogs in the first 11 rounds, and the Giants are already favourites for your Round 1 match.
You’ll laugh in defense, but your season could be in free fall by Round 12 with so many games against the top sides. You’ll need to surprise a few.
Crows are good money for the spoon too, so might be worth a look.
While I don’t mind the top 2 of your ladder predictions, I fail to see how Freo end up 12th if Melbourne dominate. Our teams are similar besides Freo being younger, similar style, 2 x gun rucks and the weakest part is the forward line. If Freo bomb that hard in 23 I can’t see Melbourne dominating and vice versa.
00Stinger
100 - 7
No idea tbh
I just went through the ladder predictor picking who ever I thought would win the games and it ended up like this.
Improvement isn't always linear though and most teams have a slight drop off before really peaking
Fair enough.
I think the factor a lot of predictions forget to think about is leadership. Easy in hindsight and teams can flick the switch but it’s probably the only thing that held Melbourne, Brisbane back last season.
It’ll also be what determines Carlton’s position, again.
00Stinger
100 - 7
Yeah and look to be fair I don't think the Bulldogs will finish top 4, I think they will miss the 8 but after I went through all of the games picking a winner they fell into 4th
And look all of the teams I have 1-12 are the teams that imo can play finals. Maybe even throw in GWS
Kane McGoodwin
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The only thing I'm laughing is how triggered you are on anything related to the Crows.
Most judges have Hawks fighting it out for the Roos for the spoon... with the Crows finishing around the same position as last session.
Your delusional if you think the loss of many quality Hawks experienced players won't have an impact on your performance. Hawks not have fhe most inexperienced list by a long margin.
Strapping Young Lad
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You think I’m triggered for mentioning Crows tough draw?!
You can’t engage with any conversation about the Crows or their list without a “LOL” and then trying to make it about Hawthorn.
Let’s try again without the melting.
How many games will Crows win of the below? I reckon you’d be doing really well to get two or three wins from this run of games.
Port
Tigers
Pies
Blues
Cats
Lions
Dockers
Dogs
Kane McGoodwin
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The draw is about the full season, not just your selection of games.
Confident we will be around the same mark as last season, as we now have less players under 50 games, addition of Rankine & also have the extra home game.
Time will tell who is the better judge, but very little chance we end up with wooden spoon as you are expecting.
Strapping Young Lad
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Never claimed you'd finish last, but it's a possibility if your season spirals after such a hard start to the year.
Which games do you win of the below?
Port
Tigers
Pies
Blues
Cats
Lions
Dockers
Dogs
Kane McGoodwin
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This is a thread about end of season not mid season predictions.
What other posters are giving game by game win/loss for their sides?
Your trolling has no bounds...
One club is second on the average ''games played'' ladder with 85 games. The other is 16 with 55 games.
Freo won't want any injuries to quality players or their depth will be really tested.
Overall the metrics of the list don't scream finals. That said, I'm not suggesting there's not a lot of quality. It's just very young.
And when it's very young you don't need a lot to go wrong to stumble.
Strapping Young Lad
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That block of games will have a massive impact on the Crows year, which is the point. They either snatch some wins early or they fall in a hole, and you have the Crows finishing jsit below the Demons and Dockers, so surely you have some confidence is suggesting which of those games you’ll win?
I think this is a non-sequitur as the difference in age/games demographics between Freo and Melbourne is not because the depth players at Melbourne. It is because of the best 23.
I am making the assumption that JOM ~= Mundy, Grundy >= Jackson, Logue (as a forward) ~= Corbett/Treacy/Amiss etc. I don't consider Tucker or Meek leaving a big deal since Tucker isn't that good and Meek was inexperienced anyway.
Dees
23rd most experience player is Pickett at 62 games.
8 other players with Afl experience - Sparrow, Petty, Jordan, Smith, Bowey, Chandler and Turner - 261 games between them avg ~33
Freo
23rd most experienced player is Corbett at 36 games.
10 other players with Afl experience - Young, Walker, Chapman, Henry, Wagner, Treacy, O'Driscoll, Erasmus, Sturt, Amiss - 178 games between them avg ~18
So there is 80 games between the AFL experienced players. You have 20 players with 100+ games and we have 8. At least 2 of ours are not B22 and I suspect at least 2 of yours aren't either.
So in the event either team loses 5 b22 players, I think the first two are covered by the experienced players outside the B22 for both teams (Colyer, Wilson, Dunstan, Melksham etc). For the other 3, you are likely covering a 100+ game player for a player with less than 30 games to their name. We are replacing a 60-80 game player with a 20 game player.
TLDR: I'd argue that at the very least, Freo and Dees are similarly vulnerable to B22 injuries. In fact, I reckon if you this for most teams you would find similar (except maybe the bottom 6 where their better players don't carry the team as much as the top 6-10 teams).
