Analysis The Way Forward

[Dubai Quacker]

We didn't seem to need a big-bodied mid when we beat Melbourne's midfield (Petracca, Oliver, Viney, Harmes) or Collingwood's midfield (De Goey, Pendlebury, Crisp, Sidebottom.)

But I think it is interesting that many have such faith in Beatson and Dalrymple (particularly the latter) when it comes to delivering quality mids but that faith doesn't seem to carry over into what we're building. They have drafted nothing but shorter mids - Stephens, Warner, Campbell, Gulden, Sheldrick, Roberts.

Maybe it's naive of me but I trust that our recruiters pick players not necessarily on pure ability or performance, but how they can play a role and fit into the team for us. So I do believe they have a vision for how all these shorter mids can form a quality midfield group, and I'm willing to back that vision in for now (not that my opinion counts for s**t.)

In their defence, I'm not even sure what defines a "big-bodied mid". Is it height? Because the average height of Geelong's main midfield quartet is 184.8cm vs ours at 184.3cm. Geelong's tallest mid is Dangerfield at 189cm, ours is Mills at 187cm. Both have two mids each over 185cm.

Is it size in terms of strength? Because if so, that's a no-brainer, and hardly a shock. Geelong's midfield quartet has an average age of 30.8 vs ours at 24.3. So clearly they don't have the developing bodies that we have.

In any case I don't think our midfield has a size issue. I think it has a balance issue. Our two biggest-bodied and mature mids (Parker & Mills) possess no dynamism or explosiveness that others of their size and shape - Dangerfield, Petracca, Oliver etc. - have. (Not knocking either of them btw, just acknowledging the attributes they do and don't have.)

Meanwhile our two mids who look most capable of bursting either into or out of contests with a bit of acceleration to get themselves in the clear (Rowbottom & Warner) are the most susceptible to having their games shut down because they're developing, inexperienced, inconsistent and relatively undersized.

So our two mids most physically primed to dominate in the midfield aren't really the two we most need to dominate in the midfield in order to be a force at centre bounces. That's just an unfortunate age thing that I think will come in time once the two younger mids are ready to really take over the midfield. But I think it's why patience is required - you don't see many 21/22 year old full-time mids winning premiership medals.

Thank you for coming to my TED Talk.

Good analysis.

But you overlooked one thing - Geelong have Guthrie, Selwood and Duncan in the mids. Certainly not “explosive” types. Far from it.

What they do have, however, is an ability to muscle their way to the ball and stick tackles.

We didn’t.

 

[RocketBooster]

We didn't seem to need a big-bodied mid when we beat Melbourne's midfield (Petracca, Oliver, Viney, Harmes) or Collingwood's midfield (De Goey, Pendlebury, Crisp, Sidebottom.)

But I think it is interesting that many have such faith in Beatson and Dalrymple (particularly the latter) when it comes to delivering quality mids but that faith doesn't seem to carry over into what we're building. They have drafted nothing but shorter mids - Stephens, Warner, Campbell, Gulden, Sheldrick, Roberts.

Maybe it's naive of me but I trust that our recruiters pick players not necessarily on pure ability or performance, but how they can play a role and fit into the team for us. So I do believe they have a vision for how all these shorter mids can form a quality midfield group, and I'm willing to back that vision in for now (not that my opinion counts for s**t.)

In their defence, I'm not even sure what defines a "big-bodied mid". Is it height? Because the average height of Geelong's main midfield quartet is 184.8cm vs ours at 184.3cm. Geelong's tallest mid is Dangerfield at 189cm, ours is Mills at 187cm. Both have two mids each over 185cm.

Is it size in terms of strength? Because if so, that's a no-brainer, and hardly a shock. Geelong's midfield quartet has an average age of 30.8 vs ours at 24.3. So clearly they don't have the developing bodies that we have.

In any case I don't think our midfield has a size issue. I think it has a balance issue. Our two biggest-bodied and mature mids (Parker & Mills) possess no dynamism or explosiveness that others of their size and shape - Dangerfield, Petracca, Oliver etc. - have. (Not knocking either of them btw, just acknowledging the attributes they do and don't have.)

Meanwhile our two mids who look most capable of bursting either into or out of contests with a bit of acceleration to get themselves in the clear (Rowbottom & Warner) are the most susceptible to having their games shut down because they're developing, inexperienced, inconsistent and relatively undersized.

So our two mids most physically primed to dominate in the midfield aren't really the two we most need to dominate in the midfield in order to be a force at centre bounces. That's just an unfortunate age thing that I think will come in time once the two younger mids are ready to really take over the midfield. But I think it's why patience is required - you don't see many 21/22 year old full-time mids winning premiership medals.

Thank you for coming to my TED Talk.

Great analysis TED

 

[RocketBooster]

The team we have is good and they will be better next year. Physically a number of the younger players will bulk up a bit more during the off season.
Mentally the players were there all year and it only started going astray midway during the 3rd Q against Collingwood in the Prelim.
GF came along and there is a sustained hoopla and media process happening, an extra day interstate and parades and then running out in front of 100,000. 10 minutes into the game it looked dire and continued to get worse.
If the players can get a grasp on the reasons for the loss and their own performances they can use that to feed success in the coming years.
Longmire has shown the last couple of years he is able to make adjustments, so i'll back him into to tweak some changes to his coaching this off season
From a player perspective we aren't missing too many pieces.
The only spanner in the works i could see derailing next year is if some of the group were not happy with some of the other players on GF day performance. I haven't seen anything but ill put it on my watch list for now

 

[Kapers]

I am a bit bemused that we are begrudging the performance of the swans whilst they have managed to become a top 4 team via natural growth alone.

For what it's worth we are on the right track, my biggest fear is scars/losing players. If we retain our list for the 2-3yrs we'll have no problems imo.

 

[The King!]

I am a bit bemused that we are begrudging the performance of the swans whilst they have managed to become a top 4 team via natural growth alone.

For what it's worth we are on the right track, my biggest fear is scars/losing players. If we retain our list for the 2-3yrs we'll have no problems imo.

good point

Guess it was just stunning to everyone the way we played

 

[Kiama Chris]

I am a bit bemused that we are begrudging the performance of the swans whilst they have managed to become a top 4 team via natural growth alone.

For what it's worth we are on the right track, my biggest fear is scars/losing players. If we retain our list for the 2-3yrs we'll have no problems imo.

We have some replacements to make in that time. People who will be gone (or very close) by/at the end of 3 years.
Buddy
Reid
Hickey
Naismith
Rampe
Fox
Lloyd
Cunningham
IMO we still need to trade in or draft a top notch KPD as a shortage in our current list. We may also need to bring in a top notch inside mid although Sheldrick and Roberts plus Rowbottom and Mills might be enough.
Drafting a KPF and a ruck to fill those holes longer term is a must but whether this is the year remains to be seen.
Sound drafting should cover the rest.

 

[Punts]

We have no replacements for out KPP that’s why we have to bank on a 36 year old in buddy , rampe 32 , hicky 32 and Reid 31

We have huge worries going forward imo with the list when it comes to KPP

 

[The King!]

We have no replacements for out KPP that’s why we have to bank on a 36 year old in buddy , rampe 32 , hicky 32 and Reid 31

We have huge worries going forward imo with the list when it comes to KPP

which teams do though? best you have is kids which we do

Lynch retires at richmond tomorrow or hawkins at geelong who takes their spot

we have potential replacements eg mcdonald

 

[Punts]

which teams do though? best you have is kids which we do

Lynch retires at richmond tomorrow or hawkins at geelong who takes their spot

we have potential replacements eg mcdonald

Talking about us

 

[Dubai Quacker]

I am a bit bemused that we are begrudging the performance of the swans whilst they have managed to become a top 4 team via natural growth alone.

For what it's worth we are on the right track, my biggest fear is scars/losing players. If we retain our list for the 2-3yrs we'll have no problems imo.

Yeah, this year just felt a bit like mum taking you to the boring supermarket, then unexpectedly getting your hopes up on the way with promises of a chocolate Paddle Pop, racing excitedly to the ice cream section, only to find the freezer was broken.

 

[The King!]

Talking about us

so am i, but theres 36 list spots or whatever, not going to have a ready to go 50 goal forward in the VFL

i agree we need to be looking to develop, but we are trying I think

 

[caesar88]

We have no replacements for out KPP that’s why we have to bank on a 36 year old in buddy , rampe 32 , hicky 32 and Reid 31

We have huge worries going forward imo with the list when it comes to KPP

Small sample size, but here's our record with McLean & McDonald playing in the same team:

RD1, 2021 vs Brisbane - W (score of 125)
RD3, 2021 vs Richmond - W (score of 117)
RD1, 2022 vs GWS - W (score of 112)
RD2, 2022 vs Geelong - W (score of 107)
RD5, 2022 vs West Coast - W (score of 121)
RD6, 2022 vs Hawthorn - W (score of 109)
RD8, 2022 vs Gold Coast - L (score of 61)

Aside from that Gold Coast game, which was a bust from pretty much every Swans player, I think there's enough to suggest there is something to work with between our two young forwards. Three of those wins also came when Buddy wasn't in the team, so they've shown they can also do it without him. And there's Amartey as well who at the very least can keep them accountable and provide competition for spots.

It's not perfect and needs some work and time and development put into them but I wouldn't say it's "huge worries".

 

[Punts]

Small sample size, but here's our record with McLean & McDonald playing in the same team:

RD1, 2021 vs Brisbane - W (score of 125)
RD3, 2021 vs Richmond - W (score of 117)
RD1, 2022 vs GWS - W (score of 112)
RD2, 2022 vs Geelong - W (score of 107)
RD5, 2022 vs West Coast - W (score of 121)
RD6, 2022 vs Hawthorn - W (score of 109)
RD8, 2022 vs Gold Coast - L (score of 61)

Aside from that Gold Coast game, which was a bust from pretty much every Swans player, I think there's enough to suggest there is something to work with between our two young forwards. Three of those wins also came when Buddy wasn't in the team, so they've shown they can also do it without him. And there's Amartey as well who at the very least can keep them accountable and provide competition for spots.

It's not perfect and needs some work and time and development put into them but I wouldn't say it's "huge worries".

Each to there own mate

McLean might be lucky to make along with amerty
Both can’t grab it , even of an injury prone Reid

 

[caesar88]

Each to there own mate

McLean might be lucky to make along with amerty
Both can’t grab it , even of an injury prone Reid

I guess I'm just looking at the forward line as a whole rather than the individuals within it. I'm not sure McLean or Amartey will ever be stars, and I'm not even sure McDonald will either at this early stage, but I think they've shown at least they can be part of a functioning forward line together that is potent and can produce winning scores. If they can do that then I'm not too fussed what their ceilings are.

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

Small sample size, but here's our record with McLean & McDonald playing in the same team:

RD1, 2021 vs Brisbane - W (score of 125)
RD3, 2021 vs Richmond - W (score of 117)
RD1, 2022 vs GWS - W (score of 112)
RD2, 2022 vs Geelong - W (score of 107)
RD5, 2022 vs West Coast - W (score of 121)
RD6, 2022 vs Hawthorn - W (score of 109)
RD8, 2022 vs Gold Coast - L (score of 61)

Aside from that Gold Coast game, which was a bust from pretty much every Swans player, I think there's enough to suggest there is something to work with between our two young forwards. Three of those wins also came when Buddy wasn't in the team, so they've shown they can also do it without him. And there's Amartey as well who at the very least can keep them accountable and provide competition for spots.

It's not perfect and needs some work and time and development put into them but I wouldn't say it's "huge worries".

I agree with this. The future of our forward line is The Cleaner playing deep, McDonald roaming further up (a la Buddy now) and Amartey playing resting second ruck (a la Reid before he got injured).

I think the Swans need to think very carefully about where Buddy will play next year. He is surely going to be rested throughout the year - but I still can’t see him playing wing, he would be a defensive liability and is no longer agile enough. This means Buddy continues in his current position or plays deeper. If he plays deeper, he needs to bulk up and practice marking non stop over the off season.

Here’s what I would do, assuming The Cleaner, McDonald and Amartey progress all well over the off season.

1. Start Buddy in the reserves. Make it clear to him and everyone else he is no longer top banana. (Buddy will probably need a longer off season anyway, so this will also help him to ease himself in).

2. Make Buddy bulk up and compete with The Cleaner for the deep forward role. Buddy would likely be a below average contested mark for a full forward but make up for this with more agility and presence - though I actually thought his marking was solid this year.

3. Give McDonald free rein around half forward. It is his fifty and he does what he wants. Tell him to prove the selection committee from the GF wrong. Almost everytime McDonald has had space to strut, he has performed - make him too banana. It doesn’t matter if he doesn’t kick 50+ goals (see point 5 below).

4. Make Amartey compete with Reid for second ruck.

5. Go to Heeney and Haywood more often - they have been severely under utilised, and with Buddy deeper up the ground our midfielders will hopefully be able to lower their eyes and spot up the best placed forward. This would help take some pressure or McDonald - a 2012 balance of goal kickers would be just fine.

 

[The King!]

1. Start Buddy in the reserves.

expensive reserves player

 

[Nuggetz]

Don't have TOG figures for our core mid group but finals tog was significantly higher than the Geelong mid group. I would consider how we could reduce their tog & this would be done through having a larger group of mids in our team.

It will help keep the likes of warner and rowbottom be fresh to play their power game.

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

expensive reserves player

Good enough for Goodes.

Good enough for Kennedy.

Good enough for O’Keefe.

Team first.

Let the futures of the Swans have first crack if they train well over the off season. If they struggle or get injured, then Franklin comes in. If they don’t struggle and don’t get injured, why play an increasingly limited player in their last year?

For the record, I am confident Buddy will play a significant role in patches of games next year. But I don’t think it hurts the club to signal where the future lies and help address the habit of our players kicking to buddy when he is not in the best position.

 

[Nuggetz]

I can't see Mclean and Buddy working together in the same forward line. Both are too immobile to put pressure on the defensive backs on a consistent basis. Amartey is the mystery imo, he's got the physical tools and has shown glimpses of contested marking and goal scoring ability. If he can improve on his football nous and ruck work, he can be the next sam reid

20

Sam Reid

Age

32

Ht

196cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.3

3star

K

6.3

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

4.7

4star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

6.0

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

0.0

1star

G

1.0

4star

D

9.4

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.4

3star

(without the injuries).

Are we going to trial the Ladhams/Hickey ruck combo or just picking one of them? Fascinating to see how that plays out.

 

[The King!]

Good enough for Goodes.

Good enough for Kennedy.

Good enough for O’Keefe.

Team first.

Let the futures of the Swans have first crack if they train well over the off season. If they struggle or get injured, then Franklin comes in. If they don’t struggle and don’t get injured, why play an increasingly limited player in their last year?

For the record, I am confident Buddy will play a significant role in patches of games next year. But I don’t think it hurts the club to signal where the future lies and help address the habit of our players kicking to buddy when he is not in the best position.

i'm all for team first , but who's forcing our leading goal kicker into the reserves round 1 next year

I do get where you are coming from re a statement of intent , but he is the main man marketing wise so won't happen for that reason alone.

let alone considering he kicked 50 plus this year

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

i'm all for team first , but who's forcing our leading goal kicker into the reserves round 1 next year

I do get where you are coming from re a statement of intent , but he is the main man marketing wise so won't happen for that reason alone.

let alone considering he kicked 50 plus this year

Yeah, I don’t think we are too far apart. I did preface my idea on the three young forwards training well and assumed that buddy would have a longer layoff anyway.

In terms of marketing, it’s not a bad story to show buddy embracing team first, being willing to try his guys out in the reserves and then being called up if a young player isn’t ready quite yet. It would help keep him fresh and build a sense of momentum near the back end of the year. (Maybe not good for ticket sales in front half though)

 

[The King!]

Yeah, I don’t think we are too far apart. I did preface my idea on the three young forwards training well and assumed that buddy would have a longer layoff anyway.

In terms of marketing, it’s not a bad story to show buddy embracing team first, being willing to try his guys out in the reserves and then being called up if a young player isn’t ready quite yet. It would help keep him fresh and build a sense of momentum near the back end of the year. (Maybe not good for ticket sales in front half though)

I hope we do make a push to players to be less buddy centric and change how he fits in the team

 

[Jewelsbon]

I hope we do make a push to players to be less buddy centric and change how he fits in the team

We really seemed to have moved away from it for a while there, but then panic sets in and it's their fallback.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

Buddy won’t be playing reserves except in circumstances where he might be coming back after an extended injury break.

 

[The King!]

Buddy won’t be playing reserves except in circumstances where he might be coming back after an extended injury break.

certainly won't be round 1