Opinion The "What's X/Y Player worth" thread

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Luder

Team Captain
Jun 7, 2019
517
857
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Western Bulldogs
Wondering what oppo supporters think is needed to get b hill back to vic
Derm and his anti freo crap said the other day some where between pick 16-30 what a dick head
His just turned 26 shown he can be a team player in a good team 3 hawk flags
Has shown he can play well in a bad team freo bnf winner 2017
Line breaker, runs all day and when he has a team around him to lower work/pressure his skills are sublime
I value him t.kelly and pick swaps or two mid teen picks
As an opposition supporter whose club has been linked to him, I'd be happy to pay somewhere around Pick ~10 for him. Too much more, and the cost just becomes more than can be justified. I think Fremantle can expect a pick in the 8-12 range (or multiple 2nd rounders between this year and next to pay for Liam Henry and your 2020 NGAs, depending on what they're chasing). If it was two picks in the teens (like say 14 and 15) then the trading club should expect something in return like Freo's Pick 26. That would value him at about Pick 8, which seems fair to me
 

Suma Magic

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 22, 2009
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Generally bigfooty over-values players. I think that the journo is generally on the money for value. Obviously with the amount he is listed some will be wrong, but it seems about right.

What do people disagree with?
 

Virgin Dog

Club Legend
Oct 29, 2017
2,161
3,024
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Western Bulldogs
Generally bigfooty over-values players. I think that the journo is generally on the money for value. Obviously with the amount he is listed some will be wrong, but it seems about right.

What do people disagree with?
Bigfooty tends to bunch 80% of players as being worth a 1st or 2nd rounder. No one ever values a best 22 player as worth anything less than an early 3rd.

For real world context, last year:
Taylor Duryea was best 22 for the Hawks, traded for a future 4th (currently Pick 61) to the Dogs and is now best 22 with us too.
Gary Rohan was traded for Pick 62.
Sam Lloyd was traded for Pick 64.
Jordan Roughead was traded for Pick 75.
Nic Newman was traded for a future 4th (currently Pick 57).

All of these guys are best 22 players who were traded for nothing picks, and I imagine the same will happen again this year. If traded, guys like Sier, Butler, Cutler, Amon, Dunstan, Taylor, Dale and Silvagni will likely be traded for picks after 50. Clubs have very different, and more accurate, opinions of what player's are truly worth
 

Northernsoul74

Club Legend
Jun 19, 2016
2,270
2,177
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Generally bigfooty over-values players. I think that the journo is generally on the money for value. Obviously with the amount he is listed some will be wrong, but it seems about right.

What do people disagree with?
I think it’s interesting as it’s not just the journos view but has input from player managers and list managers.
 

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captain cotch 9

Brownlow Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
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Its going to be interesting what happens to Richmonds fringe players this year.
We happily gave Miles & Lloyd away for peanuts last year and they are probably top 5 in their clubs BnFs this year.
I think someone will pick up Menadue and Markov once they get delisted from the Tigers
 

Mofra

Moderator
Dec 6, 2005
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Its going to be interesting what happens to Richmonds fringe players this year.
We happily gave Miles & Lloyd away for peanuts last year and they are probably top 5 in their clubs BnFs this year.
I think someone will pick up Menadue and Markov once they get delisted from the Tigers
What happened to Markov? Seemed a real lively type when he first debuted.
 

yyou

Premiership Player
Sep 18, 2014
4,572
5,121
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Fremantle
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STK give 4 and 2020 3rd rounder to GWS
GWS give 10 & 14 to STK

STK give 10 to Freo
Freo give B Hill to SK

Freo give 8 and 2020 2nd rounder to Geel
Geel give Freo Kelly

Assume Saints start with 4, GWS with 10 & 14, Freo, 8.

StK gain 14 & Hill
lose 4 & 2020 3rd rounder

GWS gain 4 & StK 2020 3rd rounder
lose 10 & 14

Freo gain 10 & Kelly
lose 8 & Hill & 2020 2nd rounder

Geel gain 8 & Freo 2020 2nd rounder
lose Kelly


Not really a 4-way trade, but just 4 trades that have some relation.

Come at me! :p
 

Snake Charmer

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 11, 2011
6,106
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Essendon
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Hey we have a trade game about to start if anyone is keen
 

Ray Donovan

Staring into the abyss
Oct 11, 2016
3,078
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Sydney
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Geelong
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Bigfooty tends to bunch 80% of players as being worth a 1st or 2nd rounder. No one ever values a best 22 player as worth anything less than an early 3rd.

For real world context, last year:
Taylor Duryea was best 22 for the Hawks, traded for a future 4th (currently Pick 61) to the Dogs and is now best 22 with us too.
Gary Rohan was traded for Pick 62.
Sam Lloyd was traded for Pick 64.
Jordan Roughead was traded for Pick 75.
Nic Newman was traded for a future 4th (currently Pick 57).

All of these guys are best 22 players who were traded for nothing picks, and I imagine the same will happen again this year. If traded, guys like Sier, Butler, Cutler, Amon, Dunstan, Taylor, Dale and Silvagni will likely be traded for picks after 50. Clubs have very different, and more accurate, opinions of what player's are truly worth
Money & Salary Cap play big parts into players. From memory Tom Mitchell went for around pick (14) money being the factor.

So we know a lot of role players probably get offered more cash or clubs want to dump salary I.e Tom Scully or a Paul ahern scenario where a bloke playing neafl with no AFL games is on 350k.

I would think Jon Patton is probably worth a reasonable pick as a free agent clubs would line up to take a stab. For 750k your suitors and team's probably need to be in a position to do some contending in near future. The options go out the window after player gives the preferred destinstion. If clubs have other deals in the works what do you do clear the salary take back a 2nd rounder and move on
 
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