Opinion The "What's X/Y Player worth" thread

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Bit of Talk about S Grays contract negotiations hitting a wall. Am I crazy for thinking we’d be looking for an early 2nd rounder for him?
 

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There's a few out of contract players I could see the Dogs taking an interest in (besides the high demand guys). Curious what people estimate their worth to be:
  • Sam Frost (Mel)
  • Jake Kelly (Ade)
  • Pat Kerr (Car)
 
Luder said:
There's a few out of contract players I could see the Dogs taking an interest in (besides the high demand guys). Curious what people estimate their worth to be:
  • Sam Frost (Mel)
  • Jake Kelly (Ade)
  • Pat Kerr (Car)
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You're not exactly aiming for the cream of the crop in those three. Jake Kelly is an interesting one and being an Adelaide supporter, I am possibly not the right person to comment but I would say something like pick 35 would be his worth. In saying that, I would only trade him for 35 if he requested a trade.

Sam Frost and Pat Kerr would have to be some chance of being delisted this year. I could be wrong though as I don't know enough about either of them.
 
Bring back Bas said:
You're not exactly aiming for the cream of the crop in those three. Jake Kelly is an interesting one and being an Adelaide supporter, I am possibly not the right person to comment but I would say something like pick 35 would be his worth. In saying that, I would only trade him for 35 if he requested a trade.

Sam Frost and Pat Kerr would have to be some chance of being delisted this year. I could be wrong though as I don't know enough about either of them.
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Yeah I know these aren't exactly high value players (Kelly obviously being worth more than the other two), but with the success we've seen in picking up Crozier, Duryea and Lloyd for absolute peanuts after being on the fringe at their original clubs, I was curious about these types of players.

Dogs have Pick 40, 44 and 45 right now, so I'd imagine based on what you said that Kelly for Pick 40 is a possibility, since I believe we had enquired about him previously (assuming he'd even want a trade in a first place)
 
Bring back Bas said:
You're not exactly aiming for the cream of the crop in those three. Jake Kelly is an interesting one and being an Adelaide supporter, I am possibly not the right person to comment but I would say something like pick 35 would be his worth. In saying that, I would only trade him for 35 if he requested a trade.

Sam Frost and Pat Kerr would have to be some chance of being delisted this year. I could be wrong though as I don't know enough about either of them.
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Kerr's been great this season in the VFL. Probably gets 2 years from Carlton.
 
eth-dog said:
Kerr's been great this season in the VFL. Probably gets 2 years from Carlton.
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He started the year off in incredible form, but his last month or so has been utter dogshit. Is he carrying any injuries I'm just not aware of? I picked him out as a potential low risk, high reward type of acquisition. Figured his price can't be too high considering Carlton's depth in KPPs and his recent drop in form, but was wondering where others might value him
 
philthy05 said:
Gee you would hate to lose him for that.

I’m not sure how much more you could get for him but you would do everything to keep him at that price.
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Probably would've come for a 4th last year, but we ran out of time to get anything sorted. Rumoured Clarkson is still keen. He's had a better 2019.
 
Luder said:
Yeah I know these aren't exactly high value players (Kelly obviously being worth more than the other two), but with the success we've seen in picking up Crozier, Duryea and Lloyd for absolute peanuts after being on the fringe at their original clubs, I was curious about these types of players.

Dogs have Pick 40, 44 and 45 right now, so I'd imagine based on what you said that Kelly for Pick 40 is a possibility, since I believe we had enquired about him previously (assuming he'd even want a trade in a first place)
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Not sure why you think Kelly or Frost are fringe players - both have played every game for their respective clubs this year. Kelly is 24, Frost is 25.

Marcus Adams trade last year is probably the best recent comparison. He was traded at 25yo for pick 32 and hawthorns 3rd this year (likely mid 40’s). Kelly is worth a bit more than that, Frost a bit less. P40 by itself won’t get you either of them.
 

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Beats said:
Not sure why you think Kelly or Frost are fringe players - both have played every game for their respective clubs this year. Kelly is 24, Frost is 25.

Marcus Adams trade last year is probably the best recent comparison. He was traded at 25yo for pick 32 and hawthorns 3rd this year (likely mid 40’s). Kelly is worth a bit more than that, Frost a bit less. P40 by itself won’t get you either of them.
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They are fringe because I'd consider both in the bottom ~4 players in their clubs 22. Duryea missed only a handful of games since debut, while Crozier played 19 games in his final Freo season. Both were in their respective club's 22, but right down the bottom, so I'd consider them both having been fringe players.

Marcus Adams was contracted, and was an extremely good defender even on his worst days. He held far more value than either of Frost or Kelly both on ability and contract status. The only thing that tanked his price is his injury history.

You're welcome to share your opinion of actual value of each player - Marcus was traded for the equivalent of roughly Pick 19/20 - are you saying you think Kelly is worth more than that?
 
Luder said:
They are fringe because I'd consider both in the bottom ~4 players in their clubs 22. Duryea missed only a handful of games since debut, while Crozier played 19 games in his final Freo season. Both were in their respective club's 22, but right down the bottom, so I'd consider them both having been fringe players.

Marcus Adams was contracted, and was an extremely good defender even on his worst days. He held far more value than either of Frost or Kelly both on ability and contract status. The only thing that tanked his price is his injury history.

You're welcome to share your opinion of actual value of each player - Marcus was traded for the equivalent of roughly Pick 19/20 - are you saying you think Kelly is worth more than that?
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Fair enough, we probably have different definitions of Fringe.

IMO ability wise Kelly > Adams > Frost

The fact Adams was contracted is negated by his poor injury history. Both Kelly and Frost have proven to be a lot more durable.

Based on a single pick value I’d say Kelly would cost pick 15-25 and Frost would be 20-30. More realistically it would be multiple picks in the 30’s/ 40’s for either of them. P40 by itself is well short of the mark.
 
Beats said:
Fair enough, we probably have different definitions of Fringe.

IMO ability wise Kelly > Adams > Frost

The fact Adams was contracted is negated by his poor injury history. Both Kelly and Frost have proven to be a lot more durable.

Based on a single pick value I’d say Kelly would cost pick 15-25 and Frost would be 20-30. More realistically it would be multiple picks in the 30’s for either of them. P40 by itself is well short of the mark.
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Fair enough, this is why I wanted to ask because it's really hard to value these guys from an objective view. I would have thought Kelly is closer to a pick in the 30s and Frost a pick in the 40s, but I guess I could be undervaluing them
 
Luder said:
Fair enough, this is why I wanted to ask because it's really hard to value these guys from an objective view. I would have thought Kelly is closer to a pick in the 30s and Frost a pick in the 40s, but I guess I could be undervaluing them
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Based on trades for similar aged key position defenders across the past few years I’d rank them:

Lever >>> May > Hamling > Kelly > Adams > S. Frost > Marchbank >>> Roughead > Hombsch > J. Frost

Melbourne overpaid for May and WB took unders for Hamling and probably Roughead (noting that he is a bit older than the other players listed).

Based on the trades above and Kelly/ Frost being uncontracted it would be a low to mid 20’s pick for Kelly and a late 20s pick for Frost (or more likely the equivalent in later picks).
 
Wondering what oppo supporters think is needed to get b hill back to vic
Derm and his anti freo crap said the other day some where between pick 16-30 what a dick head
His just turned 26 shown he can be a team player in a good team 3 hawk flags
Has shown he can play well in a bad team freo bnf winner 2017
Line breaker, runs all day and when he has a team around him to lower work/pressure his skills are sublime
I value him t.kelly and pick swaps or two mid teen picks
 
Beats said:
Based on trades for similar aged key position defenders across the past few years I’d rank them:

Lever >>> May > Hamling > Kelly > Adams > S. Frost > Marchbank >>> Roughead > Hombsch > J. Frost

Melbourne overpaid for May and WB took unders for Hamling and probably Roughead (noting that he is a bit older than the other players listed).

Based on the trades above and Kelly/ Frost being uncontracted it would be a low to mid 20’s pick for Kelly and a late 20s pick for Frost (or more likely the equivalent in later picks).
Click to expand...
No way a late 20's pick for frost. More early 40's
 
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