Things you have learnt in round 1

[Sttew]

The biggest take away from the round for me is that Ross Lyon football is dead in the modern game.

This time last year we were told by Lyon that Freo were adapting to a new game plan. This year we are told it was his fault for not preparing the team.......Lyon appears to be going through the motions

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Yeah I figured that Sydney would be shot after the Grand final loss but probably got lucky with that game

Yeah, unfortunately they couldn't back up after only a 25 week break between games. The AFL should really do something about their scheduling times between games.

 

[Monopoly_Man]

This time last year we were told by Lyon that Freo were adapting to a new game plan. This year we are told it was his fault for not preparing the team.......Lyon appears to be going through the motions

Very, very interested to see how they respond against Port in Adelaide but yeah, I agree.

No doubt he was a great coach, his record is impressive but he is being shown to be one dimensional and can't adapt.

People have been saying it for years, and I haven't really bought in until now. They had all summer, got Fyfe and Sandi back, plus added McCarthy, Hill, Hamling & Kersten. It's not a premiership winning 22 but still at home in rd 1 I expected better than what they showed.

If I was a Freo fan I would be very very worried about what I saw on Sunday night. It's almost now like a bad long-term relationship. There have been plenty of good memories but it would seem inevitable that it needs to end for them to progress anymore. It's like a bandaid, Freo need to cut their losses now and get rid of him, otherwise they just get set back further and further.

On SM-G900I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[schmuttt]

The Suns are going to become a serious problem for the AFL if they aren't already.

 

[my name was taken]

To never dream

 

[JaxsonB]

No doubt he was a great coach, his record is impressive but he is being shown to be one dimensional and can't adapt.

People have been saying it for years, and I haven't really bought in until now.

2015 was a bit of an illusion; a top 4 team from the previous year that had a specific focus to start the year with a bang, which they did - and then they trailed off; basically, returning to their average. They fell into the finals (keep this in mind - they would have been fifth if Houli didn't unnecessarily turn the ball over in the last passage of play for the game and lost it for Richmond), and statistically were the worst minor premier under the current finals system (based on points for, against, and percentage relative to the other top 4 teams). Then in those finals, they barely beat a very undermanned Sydney, before finally getting whomped by the Hawks.

Last year was basically a continuation on the form they had at the end of 2015, and round 1 looked to be more of the same.

 

[Freomaniac]

How much longer can you blokes use this excuse for?
You know neither of them were a priority pick yeah?
We've copped the 'sh*t drafters' tag for years but I reckon it's yours now.

I have always hated priority picks. Believe me If you get a guy like a Michael walters at pick 53 in the 2008 draft, you feel really good.

You would be surprised how many duds are taken in the top 20 and how many gems are taken each year in the 3rd or 4th round and even in the rookie list

 

[GreyCrow]

Do it away and not at home and more people will notice.

See line 2

 

[Freomaniac]

While it's not 100% of the time the poor goalkicking occurs, we can't afford to miss like we did in the 2nd quarter vs GWS because there will be games where there will be less chances, and we might not be able to bounce back from the missed opportunities in games like those.

you wont get the same luxury vs hawthorn this week. I am just giving you the heads up on there. Plus the umpires wont do you any favours just like last year. Still gutted on that result last year as it cost me a multi.

As for my teams accuracy, Freo kicked 10 goals and 13 behinds. Cam Mcarthy kicked 1 goal and 5 behinds. Imagine if came got 4 or 5 goals. 15 goals would be enough to put away most teams.

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

1) This will be a transitional year for Hawthorn.
2) Ross Lyon has no idea how to adapt to modern footy.
3) Collingwood will win enough games to keep Buckley in his job.
4) GWS are flat-track bullies.
5) The Essendon midfield is as good as any.
6) Sam Powell-Pepper is a wrecking ball.
7) The Crows play for each other like no other team aside from perhaps the Dogs.
8) West Coast can get by without a top flight ruckman this year.
9) Brisbane will be very competitive at home.
10) The Swans one-paced midfield can be targeted.

 

[Sttew]

As for my teams accuracy, Freo kicked 10 goals and 13 behinds. Cam Mcarthy kicked 1 goal and 5 behinds. Imagine if came got 4 or 5 goals. 15 goals would be enough to put away most teams.

Inaccuracy was not why Freo lost

 

[boydee]

All we have heard all pre season is how much better GWS are than anyone else. They are going to do this.............. They are going to do that................... Nick Del Santo on AFL 360 saying there is only one team that can beat GWS. THEMSELVES. What a load of sh**. They are no certainities to do anything. GWS will struggle to make the top 4 and I expect Melbourne, Bulldogs, Adelaide and Geelong to finish above them.

 

[Freomaniac]

Interesting post - I love me some stats.

Still, a few things:

1) No team is currently 0-2, so they all have that going in their favour.
2) Before last year, no team under the current final's system had won the premiership from outside the top 4, let alone made the grand final. So the Bulldogs were looking at a 0% trend yet bucked the odds twice (though admittedly, you could argue that last year's final system was the first of its kind, given that we had never had a week off for everyone prior to that).
3) Before 2014, if I'm not mistaken, no team had made a prelim from outside the top 4. That year, two teams did it (North and Port).

Basically, what the 0-2 stat says is not that it's impossible, but rather that it's very, very difficult as you're allowing yourself very little wriggly room - you can basically only drop up to ~5-6 more matches for the year, and doing that would require much better form than a 0-2 run would dictate.

Between 1994 which was the 1st season of the final 8 and 2016, there has been a few teams that went from out side the top 4 to pre lim.

-Melbourne went from 7th in 1994 to prelim loss to west coast.
-Essendon went from 6th to prelim final despite losing to Brisbane in the 1st week
-North went from 7th to Prelim loss to the saints in 1997
-Crows went from 5th to premiership in 1998 despite losing to Melbourne in the 1st round.
-Carlton went from 6th to grand final loss to North in 1999 despite losing to Brisbane in the 1st round.

In the 1990s it was a different final 8 system where 5th and 6th got a possible 2nd chance.

2000 onwards under the current finals format....

-Collingwood went from 7th to a 5 point loss to geelong in the prelim. in 2007
-Port and North went from 5th and 7th respectively to prelim final losses in 2014
-North finished 8th to prelim in 2015
-Then there is the Western bulldogs who came from 7th, won 4 finals to win the flag in 2016

 

[Freomaniac]

This time last year we were told by Lyon that Freo were adapting to a new game plan. This year we are told it was his fault for not preparing the team.......Lyon appears to be going through the motions

Well we got 2-3 key blokes in our 22 out in Alex Pearce who is a 200cm defender, Michael Apeness who is a 200cm forward/ruck and Ballantyne out. Not that you care.

Inaccuracy was not why Freo lost

We did a couple of stupid things in defence. That butchered kick which resulted in a Hawkins goal from 10 metres out.

Very, very interested to see how they respond against Port in Adelaide but yeah, I agree.

No doubt he was a great coach, his record is impressive but he is being shown to be one dimensional and can't adapt.

People have been saying it for years, and I haven't really bought in until now. They had all summer, got Fyfe and Sandi back, plus added McCarthy, Hill, Hamling & Kersten. It's not a premiership winning 22 but still at home in rd 1 I expected better than what they showed.

If I was a Freo fan I would be very very worried about what I saw on Sunday night. It's almost now like a bad long-term relationship. There have been plenty of good memories but it would seem inevitable that it needs to end for them to progress anymore. It's like a bandaid, Freo need to cut their losses now and get rid of him, otherwise they just get set back further and further.

On SM-G900I using BigFooty.com mobile app

I am glad you care about us. Freo were at least competitive on sunday. I don't know if you actually watched that freo vs Cats game. We were ordinary in defence. We won our fair share of battles in the middle. We just couldn't capitalize on a couple of things in the forward line. Again we got 10 goals and 13 behinds. That could of been 15 goals easily.

Kersten dropped a couple of marks in the forward 50 and they were in his range of set shots too. Glad Blakely and Langdon got games both kicked a goal each from set shots. Again Cam McCarthy kicked 1 goal and 5 behinds in which he could of easily got 4 goals.

As a Freo fan I wont be worried yet as I Expect the cats will finish top 4.

Oh and congrats on your win vs the suns.

 

[JaxsonB]

Between 1994 which was the 1st season of the final 8 and 2016, there has been a few teams that went from out side the top 4 to pre lim.

That wasn't the current finals system. As you mentioned, 5th and 6th were able to get a second chance, which is why Adelaide's premiership from 5th or 6th actually involved a loss in the finals; something that couldn't happen today.

2000 onwards under the current finals format....

-Collingwood went from 7th to a 5 point loss to geelong in the prelim. in 2007
-Port and North went from 5th and 7th respectively to prelim final losses in 2014
-North finished 8th to prelim in 2015
-Then there is the Western bulldogs who came from 7th, won 4 finals to win the flag in 2016

I did qualify with "if I'm not mistaken" - but basically, what you've highlighted here was that I was right about everything I said, except that Collingwood made it to the prelim from sixth in 2007.

 

[Seeds]

1) This will be a transitional year for Hawthorn.
2) Ross Lyon has no idea how to adapt to modern footy.
3) Collingwood will win enough games to keep Buckley in his job.
4) GWS are flat-track bullies.
5) The Essendon midfield is as good as any.
6) Sam Powell-Pepper is a wrecking ball.
7) The Crows play for each other like no other team aside from perhaps the Dogs.
8) West Coast can get by without a top flight ruckman this year.
9) Brisbane will be very competitive at home.
10) The Swans one-paced midfield can be targeted.

Wow you learned a lot from one single round.

 

[theprospect]

Blues are bad
Pies have zero defense
Saints are over rated and midfield is poor
GWS depth isn't what some say
Suns are in trouble
Port getting carried away
Hawks are cooked ???
North are bottom 4
Fyfe isn't staying at that rabble

Didn't realise that St. Kilda were actually rated by anyone outside of St. Kilda lol

 

[RightYouAreThen]

Inaccuracy was not why Freo lost

we are in for another frustrating year.

 

[Sttew]

Well we got 2-3 key blokes in our 22 out in Alex Pearce who is a 200cm defender, Michael Apeness who is a 200cm forward/ruck and Ballantyne out. Not that you care.


.

I actually tipped Freo because with Fyffe, Sandilands, Hamling and Hill coming in, I thought that would be the difference between a semi-competitive team and a winning team

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

Wow you learned a lot from one single round.

I also learned that you are still a dick.

 

[Macpotata]

Hawks are ****ed and will miss the 8. Demons are on the way up. Sam Mitchell's an out and out champion. West coasts forward line is the deepest in the comp and the Crows are smashing on like Rocky Balboa after he lost to Clubber Lang.

Look out.

 

[Macpotata]

J.J's kicked off where he left off last year. Doggies are as confident as ever and will have extreme mental toughness and self belief after that scalp in 2016.

Woof woof.

 

[Macpotata]

And yeah Travis Choke is still a hack.

 

[SC26]

you wont get the same luxury vs hawthorn this week. I am just giving you the heads up on there. Plus the umpires wont do you any favours just like last year. Still gutted on that result last year as it cost me a multi.

As for my teams accuracy, Freo kicked 10 goals and 13 behinds. Cam Mcarthy kicked 1 goal and 5 behinds. Imagine if came got 4 or 5 goals. 15 goals would be enough to put away most teams.

Yes, we will need to make the most of all opportunities this week. We were actually good in that aspect last year vs Hawthorn, but we still fell short.

 

[Seeds]

Hawks are ****** and will miss the 8. Demons are on the way up. Sam Mitchell's an out and out champion. West coasts forward line is the deepest in the comp and the Crows are smashing on like Rocky Balboa after he lost to Clubber Lang.

Look out.

Rocky was a weeping sook for most of the time after he lost to clubber. I felt like belting him myself until the training montage.