Strategy This is what a successful 2021 looks like

NavyRedGold

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Oct 4, 2017
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This rebuild is going well.

We need two things out of this season:
  1. To finish the year by drafting elite midfield talent
  2. To prove that even without the elite midfield talent, our young underdeveloped team can compete with the grown-up teams in the competition (both to build a culture that supports player retention, and to prove that we don't need to blow the rebuild up and could be flag contenders once topped up with elite talent)
The best way to make 1 happen with 2 also happening is:
  • Win games against flag contenders who won't be around the bottom area of the table competing for draft picks
  • Lose games competitively against the others, but just get pipped due to bad luck or obvious gaps in the team structure: e.g. poor goalkicking from players who are ordinarily very good, umpiring errors and/or obvious selection mistakes (e.g. not selecting a 2nd KPD, allowing us to lose games due to obvious mismatches)
I'd argue therefore that this season has been going very well so far.

The losses against Collingwood and Hawthorn were perfect.
  • Collingwood: we were all over them for long passages in repeatable parts of the game flow (e.g. clearances, possession counts, I50s, marks inside 50) and would have won easily if it wasn't for uncharacteristically poor performances in front of goal by the likes of Tex and Fog. This will have no bearing on future flag chances.
  • Hawthorn: would've won if the umpiring was even a little bit better, but much better for us that we lost.
Add 50 games of experience into the side, a couple of top draft picks and better luck and we start easily putting away teams of that quality - but we don't want to be doing that right now.

If we want to be top of the table flag contenders like Melbourne or the Bulldogs, we need to spend some time not winning these games. If we want to avoid being perennial bottom feeders like Carlton or the Gold Coast, we need to prove that we could have won these games and to actually pull out some wins against good teams. We're doing all of that.

References
Melbourne: Petracca (#2), Brayshaw (#3), Oliver (#4)
Bulldogs: Macrae (#6), Bont (#4)
 

Thetrader15

Cancelled
10k Posts
Oct 16, 2015
24,279
30,558
AFL Club
Adelaide
This rebuild is going well.

We need two things out of this season:
  1. To finish the year by drafting elite midfield talent
  2. To prove that even without the elite midfield talent, our young underdeveloped team can compete with the grown-up teams in the competition (both to build a culture that supports player retention, and to prove that we don't need to blow the rebuild up and could be flag contenders once topped up with elite talent)
The best way to make 1 happen with 2 also happening is:
  • Win games against flag contenders who won't be around the bottom area of the table competing for draft picks
  • Lose games competitively against the others, but just get pipped due to bad luck or obvious gaps in the team structure: e.g. poor goalkicking from players who are ordinarily very good, umpiring errors and/or obvious selection mistakes (e.g. not selecting a 2nd KPD, allowing us to lose games due to obvious mismatches)
I'd argue therefore that this season has been going very well so far.

The losses against Collingwood and Hawthorn were perfect.
  • Collingwood: we were all over them for long passages in repeatable parts of the game flow (e.g. clearances, possession counts, I50s, marks inside 50) and would have won easily if it wasn't for uncharacteristically poor performances in front of goal by the likes of Tex and Fog. This will have no bearing on future flag chances.
  • Hawthorn: would've won if the umpiring was even a little bit better, but much better for us that we lost.
Add 50 games of experience into the side, a couple of top draft picks and better luck and we start easily putting away teams of that quality - but we don't want to be doing that right now.

If we want to be top of the table flag contenders like Melbourne or the Bulldogs, we need to spend some time not winning these games. If we want to avoid being perennial bottom feeders like Carlton or the Gold Coast, we need to prove that we could have won these games and to actually pull out some wins against good teams. We're doing all of that.

References
Melbourne: Petracca (#2), Brayshaw (#3), Oliver (#4)
Bulldogs: Macrae (#6), Bont (#4)
Richmond - Martin #3, Cotchin #2, Prestia #9
Port: Wines#7, Boak #5
 

Apsaalooke

Premiership Player
Sep 23, 2012
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Honourable wins and honourable losses bring hope - can’t disagree
 
Nov 24, 2007
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My only concerns are we need multiple midfielders so multiple trips to the well *unless* we can attract talent back, and
getting 50 games in is 2 more seasons at the bottom, with no draft busts

if we get (Mutineer ) someone like Chesser, can he Rowell it and make an impact straight away?

otherwise spot-on analysis
 
Jun 7, 2011
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What you need to realise about a rebuild is what is the end game. We have a stated mission in our constitution of playing finals as often as possible. So what what is the purpose of our rebuild and when is it done? It's done when you bench development in favour of continuity and perceived immediate results. If you look at the number of players played this year table, we're clearly focussing on continuity to remain as competitive as possible at the expense of cycling through players to see what we've got. You don't need to look any further than selecting a 32yo decade long fringe player. Denying meaningful midfield minutes to junior mids is another considering how obvious it is that we need to move past the current triumvate.

The rebuild is going well, it's just that the ceiling is set low and it's basically done. We will add our high draft pick, RE-contract all our oldies, continue to play the same mids 100% of their game time in the guts and focus on getting our best 22 playing together all year. This rebuild won't lead anywhere different because it's the same club philosophies driving the decisions. And Nicks is a huge believer of those philosophies, otherwise he wouldn't have gotten the gig.
 

Big Crow

Cancelled
Aug 28, 2016
1,660
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Adelaide
Good post.

Would add one thing: Figure out what is causing so many off field stuff ups and embarrassments, and address it so they don’t continue into the future.
 

NavyRedGold

Debutant
Oct 4, 2017
103
235
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There is nothing honourable about laying down and copping it for far worse teams who have had psychological domination over our club for decades and still will end up with better draft picks.

I take no joy out of losing to teams like Hawthorn and Collingwood either after the past experiences we've had with them, but had we won those two games we'd be 9th on the ladder at this moment in time without ever looking like a true contender, which I think would be worse.
 

NavyRedGold

Debutant
Oct 4, 2017
103
235
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Philadelphia Flyers
My only concerns are we need multiple midfielders so multiple trips to the well *unless* we can attract talent back, and
getting 50 games in is 2 more seasons at the bottom, with no draft busts

if we get (Mutineer ) someone like Chesser, can he Rowell it and make an impact straight away?

otherwise spot-on analysis

Agree that's a fair concern.

I don't think we can bank on being bottom 4 next season, so we do need to think about how we can either trade out players to give us ammo for moving up in a future draft, or line up some talent to come back home.
 

phill5158

Club Legend
Mar 29, 2013
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Would like us to establish another young talent down back before this year finishes- Worrell/McAsey and also would be nice go see Pedlar play even a couple games before season end.

In the draft would like us to pick a ready to go player with our first pick, not someone that has to start in the SANFL. Preferably a midfielder of course and one that had good speed, contested ball winning ability and can hit the scoreboard. With our other picks id like us to target some SA guys from other clubs such as CCJ.

On SM-G988B using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

John Who

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 16, 2017
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I think witnessing the birth of an AFL player in RT, has shown what we've been missing in all these years for some time i.e genuine high end talent, where they can play in their first season right away. Similar to the likes of Rozee, Butters and Duursma for Port. These types are likely to reinvigorate the team and lot more optimism for the following season(s).

So this year in the AFL draft, I don't mind another type like a RT (in terms of high end talent). Losing games in this season, and much like the last, may yield more benefit than winning games. It's literally a balancing act that we have to strive for. Playing young talent, losing games in order to get more high-end talent, but don't lose so much that our confidence will be entirely shot for the next decade. Currently, we're walking that balance reasonably well, I feel.
 
Agree that's a fair concern.

I don't think we can bank on being bottom 4 next season, so we do need to think about how we can either trade out players to give us ammo for moving up in a future draft, or line up some talent to come back home.

It's probably safer to assume we'll be bottom 4-bottom 6 next year then not.

Development isn't linear and its certainly around the the first major hurdle a club faces. Pushing their team into the mid table and above.
 

phill5158

Club Legend
Mar 29, 2013
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I think witnessing the birth of an AFL player in RT, has shown what we've been missing in all these years for some time i.e genuine high end talent, where they can play in their first season right away. Similar to the likes of Rozee, Butters and Duursma for Port. These types are likely to reinvigorate the team and lot more optimism for the following season(s).

So this year in the AFL draft, I don't mind another type like a RT (in terms of high end talent). Losing games in this season, and much like the last, may yield more benefit than winning games. It's literally a balancing act that we have to strive for. Playing young talent, losing games in order to get more high-end talent, but don't lose so much that our confidence will be entirely shot for the next decade. Currently, we're walking that balance reasonably well, I feel.
Very well said, RT has proven the benefits of drafting readymade players. Our draft strategy has to change over the next few years, got to draft players that can come straight in, I'm not talking about from round one even but preferably in their first years ie RT, Berry, Milera they are the only ones I can think that weve played early.

On SM-G988B using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Aug 5, 2013
2,170
1,891
AFL Club
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This rebuild is going well.

We need two things out of this season:
  1. To finish the year by drafting elite midfield talent
  2. To prove that even without the elite midfield talent, our young underdeveloped team can compete with the grown-up teams in the competition (both to build a culture that supports player retention, and to prove that we don't need to blow the rebuild up and could be flag contenders once topped up with elite talent)
The best way to make 1 happen with 2 also happening is:
  • Win games against flag contenders who won't be around the bottom area of the table competing for draft picks
  • Lose games competitively against the others, but just get pipped due to bad luck or obvious gaps in the team structure: e.g. poor goalkicking from players who are ordinarily very good, umpiring errors and/or obvious selection mistakes (e.g. not selecting a 2nd KPD, allowing us to lose games due to obvious mismatches)
I'd argue therefore that this season has been going very well so far.

The losses against Collingwood and Hawthorn were perfect.
  • Collingwood: we were all over them for long passages in repeatable parts of the game flow (e.g. clearances, possession counts, I50s, marks inside 50) and would have won easily if it wasn't for uncharacteristically poor performances in front of goal by the likes of Tex and Fog. This will have no bearing on future flag chances.
  • Hawthorn: would've won if the umpiring was even a little bit better, but much better for us that we lost.
Add 50 games of experience into the side, a couple of top draft picks and better luck and we start easily putting away teams of that quality - but we don't want to be doing that right now.

If we want to be top of the table flag contenders like Melbourne or the Bulldogs, we need to spend some time not winning these games. If we want to avoid being perennial bottom feeders like Carlton or the Gold Coast, we need to prove that we could have won these games and to actually pull out some wins against good teams. We're doing all of that.

References
Melbourne: Petracca (#2), Brayshaw (#3), Oliver (#4)
Bulldogs: Macrae (#6), Bont (#4)
So basically, "Observe what has happened in the season, retroactively create goals that match what already happened."
 
Dec 18, 2007
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I take no joy out of losing to teams like Hawthorn and Collingwood either after the past experiences we've had with them, but had we won those two games we'd be 9th on the ladder at this moment in time without ever looking like a true contender, which I think would be worse.

This is so true and something that has been missed by a few. Comments about hurting draft position after the Melbourne win, even comments after round 1 against Geelong.

All teams are going to win games, just look at Collingwood yesterday. At least if we save our wins for the top 8 teams they don't hurt the ladder position as much as the 8 point games.

Agree that's a fair concern.

I don't think we can bank on being bottom 4 next season, so we do need to think about how we can either trade out players to give us ammo for moving up in a future draft, or line up some talent to come back home.

I want us to trade our '22 first rounder into this year's draft. Take two mids in the first round.
 
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