This weekend ...

[masai]

Yipee we are ready to get into some serious action.

I'm hoping for some good fine weather, but it is Easter !!. The fine weather should allow us to see if both sides skills have improved and will allow for a fast game rather than a boring negative defensive game.

I'm going to put my head on the block and say that the Eagles have been playing to about 90% of their capacity in pre season games, where as I feel the Dockers were a little less intense. I feel the Eagles may have seemed more intense due to Woosha stirring up the adrenelin levels. As such I feel Freo have a little more room for improvement.

From a Dockers point of view, if they line up as they have in the pre season games, it will definitely be a changed team from last year. Will Pav stay down back, Fewster in the forward line, Croad full forward, Longmuir Junior forward?. I don't know if they'll line up like that. The Eagles line up seems more settled with the main discussion being who should fill in the pockets eg. Glass (good player), Carroll etc. Flexibility in the spine may just edge towards the Dockers.

Now to the engine room, the Ruck and midfield. On paper the Eagles have quicker leg speed in the midfield, but can this be offset by a team getting the ball out with quick handwork?, it's the $64000 question. If Gardiner plays at CHF, then Cox and the Dockers rucks will be pretty even (it's Easter please return Jesus!!!). The ball will be won on the ground and as I said, the best handwork and reading of the play will benefit.

As for who's got the best defence or attack, it really depends on delivery and match ups. Who ever can deliver the ball out of the centre with accurate delivery, it gives that forward line the leg up.

As for match ups :-

Jacko v JLo, have to put another mobile defender on eg. Glass.

Jacko v Fewster / Pav, similars for size.

Croad v McIntosh, similars, but will Croad play up the field.

Gardiner v Pav, interesting but will Pav play forward or Gardiner ruck?.

Medhurst v Glass / Taylor, will play the pocket like a second full forward, do you play tall or mobile short?.

Midfield, I would tend not to tag much but back my team to win the ball. Tagging players like Bell and Cousins will balance out, so let the players you would use as taggers run forward or back to make different options.

All in all I feel Freo are on the right track and now know what it feels like to win and thus I am tipping them by 30 points, because of their flexibility and they've got alot to prove.

I've tried, constructive criticism is welcome.

 

[TheRealBuzz]

Yep, all very good points. No bias in there.

I think the Eagles can definitely afford to have Cox in the ruck.
I thought his form was as good, if not better that of Troy Simmonds' through the Wizard Cup.
This allows Gardiner to play CHF, which I think is absolutely essential. He's a fantastic marking target, plus it means Pavlich has to stay down back.

The midfield is were I see the biggest advantage for the Eagles.
There are people (*cough* Kuep *cough*) who claim that Wirra, Roo and Braun won't make it through the year uninjured. Given their history, that's fair enough, but in Round1 they will be 100%.
Kerr can match it with Cook at the bottom of packs, and I can't see anyone being able to stop Cuzz.
Wirra and Roo have classy skills and are very, very quick.

The loss of W'House and Farmer is a major blow for Fremantle. But your forward line is still pretty potent.
Croad has really surprised me. I never thought he'd do anything up forward, but his form through the pre-season would suggest otherwise.
McIntosh seems to struggle when his opponents lead far and wide up the ground. Croad's athleticism allows him to do this all bloody day, and I'd be a lot more comfortable if Glass and Collica had some more match fitness under their belt, so they could take over if Croad starts to get on top.

Our forward is still our greatest concern. But a good midfield can still make a poor forward line look good.
A lot will depend if Willow can kick straight. Which is still a great unknown.
Fido hasn't had a lot of match practice, which is a worry. But don't forget that he stepped straight into the team last year and booted five against StKilda. He does love his Derby's as well.

Matchups I'm most looking forward to:

Gardiner v's Pav:
Should be fantastic. Two young blokes, who don't like each other very much. Hope they belt the hell out of each other, without any fist fights.

Humm v's Medhurst:
Again, two very impressive young guys. I love the way Humm plays, and Medhurst will be in for a hard day.

Jako v's J'Lo/Brown:
If Brown does play CHF, then we simply won't see him for the entire day. Jako is faster, stronger and smarter.
But I think J'Lo will definitely start there. It will be a good test for Jak, and the outcome pivotal.

I reckon the Eagles by 39 points.
Not 38, not 40, exactly 39 points.

 

[masai]

Originally posted by TheRealBuzz
Yep, all very good points. No bias in there.

Thanks Buzz, a constructive discussion is a lot better than trying for petty point scoring.

Forgot to mention Wilson. I'm not to sure who to man up on him. Maybe someone like Fewster for body strength and hope that one of the other players drops in the zone in front to frustrate the leads. A speedy, light player like Parker may be wasted as his direct opponent, Parker could drift across.

I'm not going to pull your midfield apart because it rotates so much and could involve around 8 players rather than just 4. I still don't think leg speed is the number 1 skill for midfielders, getting the ball and distributing efficiently to make your forwards jobs easier.

I know your not a big wrap for Brown but I reckon he's a good workhorse. Playing him at CHF on Jacko would be a waste but I think he will be used all over the ground to "plug gaps", eg. in front of Wilson!!. Browny has slimmed down alot, so we can now turn the jokes on Molloy.

I'd still like to see JLo at CHF, as he reminds me of a country footballer who does things as if he doesn't care.

Humm is not bad but Medhurst might need someone with a stronger body/feet effect for marking contests, as Medhurst will try to play as a 2nd full forward, whereas Fido plays as a crumber. But then it depends how the ball is delivered, if delivered well Medhurst is at an advantage, if it is scrambled, Humm may be better in the speed area.

 

[Bigger]

Cox has certainly come along a lot faster than I thought he would. He seems to have bulked up a lot in his upper body - much quicker than expected.

If you are doing comparisons though, I don't know if Simmonds' Wizard Cup work can be counted. That circle certainly favoured taller ruckmen like Cox. Leapers like Simmonds are going to be better off with the return to a long run-up. That said, Fremantle didn't really have a great set-up at the centre square bouncedowns I saw and I hear they have been putting a lot of work into that in recent training. Simmonds is actually a quite good tap ruckman and will do well.

The Freo midfield are slow and Cousins - off his own bat - beat them in the final derby of 2001. It was a crap game, riddled with mistakes, and all it took was for Cousins to put a bit extra in in the last couple and Freo were sunk without being sighted.

That sort of thing happened to them a lot last year. Someone from the opposition midfield would step up a cog in the last quarter (Crawford did it in the first Hawthorn game, Akermanis in the away Brisbane game) and Freo had no replies.

They get plenty of the ball, the Freo midfield, and with the hardcore rotation Connolly has got going, I am not as convinced that West Coast's pace through the middle will be the difference everyone imagines it to be.

I am really quite at a loss when it comes to a 39 point tip. It is a complete cop-out but there are too many unknowns in this game to tip so confidently. I mean, how is Medhurst going to go? I don't know. Is Matera underdone? Who knows.

Anyway, I am going Freo in a close one.

 

[TheRealBuzz]

Have Freo got the numbers for 'hardcore rotations' through the middle?

Bell, Cook and Haselby (who I still don't think is 100%) will be the major players, but after that it falls away pretty quickly with the likes of Carr, McManus and Seigert.

Compare it to the Eagles who have Cuzz, Kerr, Wirra, Matera, Braun, Fletcher, Jones ect who can all work through there.
It also allows that Cuzz to have a breather up in the forward line.

Regarding Willow, I think Jones will probably get the job. But while he can match Wilson one-on-one, I'm not sure if he has the speed off the mark to stay with him on the lead.
Parker would be the best equipped to take him on, but he'll probably play on Fido.
How about Antoni Grover? He is very, very quick and a lot bigger than people give him credit for.

 

[Bigger]

If I were coaching Freo, I would rather Wilson got the ball than any of your other forwards. He is still amazingly stiff in his action - he is like a supposed "action man" figure from the 1970s; that is, not much action at all.

I agree. Grover is a good sort of a match-up as, yes, he is strong and does have some toe.

My point about the rotation was that Fremantle at least have somebody to give Bell and Cook a rest, keeping them fresh for later in games when Freo have historically gone off the boil.

West Coast are heaps faster and in the past, because of this, I would have gone for them without batting an eyelid. So what is different? I just think if Croad leads out on McIntosh he will kill him. Longmuir is still waiting there for you to match up on and the height of the Freo forward line means not all delivery has to be pinpoint.

No-one got the ball as much as the Freo midfield did last year. You don't have to be quick, you just have to get it forward quickly and they seem to be doing that.

You have to admit, as a contest it is a lot closer than 39 points.
This is actually the first derby I am looking forward to in terms of a contest.

 

[masai]

It's hard to say where anyone plays today, gone are the days of the lines of 3 across the oval where you had two wings and centre. Ah those were the days.

Buzz when I mentioned that a midfield rotation could contain 8 people, I was referring to the Eagles in that if one is not good another is brought in without most of the crowd noticing.

What is the midfield ?. I consider it the 3 onballers plus the centremen. Some people may consider wingers as midfielders, I separate them and consider them as "carriers". McManus is a wingman.

The Eagles onballers seem stronger at the moment as I must agree Haselby is still not 100%. It will depend on the bounce and who can get their confidence up to try different things. Never too sure who the Dockers onballers will be, could be anyone from Walker (??????), Woods, Koops and even Parker.

With Wilson, I like your thought about Grover but I think they may want him on the half back area for run through. I'm prepared to "sacrifice" Fewster on Wilson in the belief that the ball is going to be cut off at half back or forwarded under great pressure, thus putting pressure on the full forward rather than the full back. By doing this a better player (than Fewster) can be used elsewhere. (please note Fewster seems to be on the right track this year).

Really we are speculating as the match ups will only be known when they're on the ground. Do you play 2 small forwards, 2 tall back pockets, tall wingman etc.

Depending on the match ups we may find that players like Fewster, Jacko and maybe McIntosh on the bench due to them not having a suitable match up.

 

[TheRealBuzz]

Bigger, the main problem I see with the Freo midfield, is that there is to big a gap between Freo's top 3 midfielders, and the 2nd tier players who are coming on to give them a breather.
Fletcher and Black were both in the side last year, so surely this is an area that has become weaker over the summer, not improved?

This Derby is definitely shaping up to be one of the best.
Both teams will enter the game with some confidece, so it should be a vastly effort from the last year.

Let's hope so anyway.

 

[Bigger]

Fletcher was slow and unaccountable. Black wasn't used well. He played from halfback most of the Drum games.

But that is beside the point. The departure of these guys - who did have class - is neither here or nor there in terms of whether the area has improved or worsened. The cattle is not the whole of the point, it's how the cattle are mustered.

Connolly had a bigger bench to use in the Wizard cup than he will in the real deal but the changes he pulled were amazing. Constant - "hardcore" even - rotation.

The plus for Fremantle is that he has a few odd-sized guys to swing through there and matching up is going to be a full-time job.

I am really intrigued and, like I said, it is the first time that this has been the case. I am still going Freo but I wouldn't be game to bet.