News "This will kill everyone"

[Rayzorwire]

From what the recruiters are saying, Vlad and co. may well have ruined the comp for the next decade, minimum. I had no idea so many of the juniors they've already got were *that* good...and the article doesn't mention their zone access to the QLD and NT boys...on top of having so many first-round quality kids.

Is this article hyperbole, or pretty accurate?

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/this-will-kill-everyone/story-e6frf9jf-1225877215966

...

Adelaide's national recruiting manager Matt Rendell saw the writing on the wall 12 months ago when the concessions were announced by the AFL Commission.
"I don't think people know what they have been given," he said. "It's not in the psyche because people don't understand the draft and the players, but when you use last year's draft and see how well they are going this year, you get an idea of the standard of players they will have.
"By my calculations, and don't worry they are Gold Coast's calculations, as well, of the 12 17-year-olds they picked ... if they were in last year's draft - which the bottom ages were always in up until last year - then eight of those would have been first-rounders.
"This year they get another nine, so they've effectively got 17 first-round draft picks. People don't realise how hard it is to get 17 first-round draft picks in your list; it takes 17 years and they are getting them in two."
And Rendell predicted the new teams would manipulate the draft by trading players out to ensure the stream of high picks continues over the next decade.
"They are going to keep staying in every draft by tipping out players they can't keep to somebody who will give them a sub-10 pick," he said. "So it's going to be on-going, not just for this year and next, they are going to stay in drafts at the top end for 10 years to keep the dynasty going."


...


Pelchen understands the sentiment given he believes Greater Western Sydney's draft pool could be even better next year.

...

 

[Rayzorwire]

I suspect these articles will merge when the HUN gets its act together...

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...e/story-e6frf9jf-1225877193133?from=public_js

...

"Gold Coast will win its first flag around 2014-2015, and then between them and West Sydney they will win the next 10."

...

"No one is going to be able to compete. My only hope is that it doesn't send clubs to the wall because of it.
"I mean look at Melbourne, they think they are going to win one in three or four years time, but I'm telling you the Gold Coast will race straight past them, they'll give them wind burn.
"It's as scary as hell."

Richmond's general manager of football Craig Cameron, whose club is set to lose the most, agrees.

"It's frightening," he said of the pending arrival of Gold Coast.

"It certainly looks ugly for the rest of us."

 

[Spluff]

Accurate. Though it looks to me more like 6 or 7 first round worthy players from their 17 years olds than 8. Still a huge concern.

 

[Dustin Credible]

Unfortunately most of it's accurate but I don't think GC and GWS will win 10 flags in a row between them.

It takes more than just draft picks to win a premiership but it certainly is a great help. Not all 1st round draft picks develop into great players, some will be average and some will be poor. They won't just have picked Deledios they'll also have drafted some Tamblings and the odd JON. They then have to develop them as well as build a team culture and ethos from scratch. Even if they manage all of this they have to keep the sides together (salary cap concessions again help). The other confounding factor is that both sides are coming into being (and presumably peaking) around the same time and as such will be competing with each other.

That said the AFL heirarchy want to build dynasties at both clubs and to them that means winning multiple premierships, ala the Brisbane threepeat, and these concessions are designed to deliver this. So I reckon around 6 premierships will be given(by virtue of the concessions) to the two sides. (Any less than 5 should be regarded as failure).

 

[Dustin Credible]

Forgot to add that the timeframe for this is going to be around when we are hopefully challenging for premierships. So if anyone is going to stop the b*stards its going to have to be us.

 

[Dr Awkward]

The whole thing is a joke. That is all I can say right now.

 

[_RT_]

I'll believe it when it happens. Carlton have Judd McLean Walker Murphy Gibbs Kreuzer Russell Henderson Hampson(PP) Yarran & Lucas as all former first round/top 20 picks on their list and yet aren't an unbeatable side, in fact a number of those players still struggle. We've got Deledio Tambling Cotchin Martin Reiwoldt Thomson Hislop Polak Vickery Rance(PP) as former first round/top 20 picks and we're a side that sits 1-10. You could got through just about every other side and find they all have upwards of 8 former first rounders on their lists, it doesn't mean a thing though if the talent can't be developed well.

Just because GC are getting all this young talent doesn't mean they are going to be a team of superstars. Have a look at their VFL record with those 12 17 year olds running around, they sit in 12th spot, 1 behind Coburg, with a 1-1-6 record. Now granted they are still kids but unless they can be developed properly I don't believe they are going to come in and play finals within 2 years, maybe in 4-5 years time as they mature.

So lets take a look back at the drafts 5-6 years ago and see how the first 15 in each fared, in 2004 of the first 15 picks only 7 have played 100 games in 6 seasons. In the 05 draft, by the end of this season, there will have been only 6 of the first 15 to have played more than 90-100 games in 5 years. Out of 30 picks thats 12 players with more than 90 games 5-6 years later. Like I said just because the GC are getting a heap of picks it doesn't mean they are guaranteed success, they are still going to have to work pretty damn hard to achieve it.

 

[coke_zero]

Forgot to add that the timeframe for this is going to be around when we are hopefully challenging for premierships. So if anyone is going to stop the b*stards its going to have to be us.

Lets give it a crack. I hope the 2 new teams fail.

 

[Bruce Monteath]

Hyperbole aside Ruthless, you'll forgive me if I take more notice of Matt Rendell, Chris Pelchen and to a lesser extent Craig Cameron on this particular issue.

 

[NQTIGER]

Hyperbole aside Ruthless, you'll forgive me if I take more notice of Matt Rendell, Chris Pelchen and to a lesser extent Craig Cameron on this particular issue.

Hyperbole????? RT is absolutely correct, i mean lets face it apart from the Hawks bradbury flag, who else has come come close on the back of high draft picks?

Certainly not the tiges or the saints or brisbane or...........

And carlton is a hell of a lot closer than north

 

[NQTIGER]

Whilst we are heading in the right direction and we all agree that the AFL hates us, unless we get some support at the draft table we are still a long way away.

If jack is a third tall option on the forward line we havent as yet found the first and second.

I agree that at this early stage astbury and griff look like thatey will make it, it is still very early in their careers to be absolutely sure.

We have deficiencies in the Ruck, CHB and the full back line.

Our centreline is getting there but probably two elite mids still short.

With the compromised drafts thats three to four more years at least of rebuilding. That is if we get lucky in the draft because apart from 1-5 draft picks the rest are a lottery and even high picks arent necessarily a given (tambling comes to mind).

The GC and GWS are going to hurt us just as much as say the doggies and saints and cats who are on the downslope.

Forget the pride and accept any help coming our way from vlad and his cronies..........i dont care how we get players as long as we get them.

Not even Chris pelchen has a 100% record at the draft table so it would be foolish for us to assume that all our picks will be brightly coloured stones like last seasons appear to be.

And even those gems are slightly clouded (taylor/roberts)

any thoughts on this?

 

[Simmonds2Hislop]

So they think we're going to see possibly the two greatest sides ever in the same era? Even better than Hawthorn of the 80's or Melbourne of the 50's?

I doubt it.


If you look at the 04 draft only 7 of the top 20 are decent/gun players. 9 if you include Monfries and Williams. That's less than a 50% success rate.

In 05 it's about 10/20, with only 6 capable of being true stars.

Right now from 06 only 7 look to be stars, that's 35%.

And look at the top 20 from the 01 "superdraft".

Hodge
Ball - meh
Judd
Polak - FAIL
X.Clarke -FAIL
Sampi - FAIL
Hale - meh
Bartel
Molan - FAIL
Sam Power FAIL
Richard Cole - FAIL
Brent Riley - meh
Dal Santo
Ashley Watson - FAIL
Barry Brooks - FAIL
Rick Ladson - meh
James Kelly
Shane Harvey - FAIL
Gram
Elstone - FAIL

So half the guys in the top 20 of the best draft ever failed badly. A furthur 4 are only average. And this is despite coming into established clubs eith excellent facilities and stronger senior players to guide them.

Odds are only 6-10 of those guys will be genuine stars. They aren't going to have 15 Bartel's or Chappy's running around for them.

 

[NQTIGER]

I'll believe it when it happens. Carlton have Judd McLean Walker Murphy Gibbs Kreuzer Russell Henderson Hampson(PP) Yarran & Lucas as all former first round/top 20 picks on their list and yet aren't an unbeatable side, in fact a number of those players still struggle. We've got Deledio Tambling Cotchin Martin Reiwoldt Thomson Hislop Polak Vickery Rance(PP) as former first round/top 20 picks and we're a side that sits 1-10. You could got through just about every other side and find they all have upwards of 8 former first rounders on their lists, it doesn't mean a thing though if the talent can't be developed well.

Just because GC are getting all this young talent doesn't mean they are going to be a team of superstars. Have a look at their VFL record with those 12 17 year olds running around, they sit in 12th spot, 1 behind Coburg, with a 1-1-6 record. Now granted they are still kids but unless they can be developed properly I don't believe they are going to come in and play finals within 2 years, maybe in 4-5 years time as they mature.

So lets take a look back at the drafts 5-6 years ago and see how the first 15 in each fared, in 2004 of the first 15 picks only 7 have played 100 games in 6 seasons. In the 05 draft, by the end of this season, there will have been only 6 of the first 15 to have played more than 90-100 games in 5 years. Out of 30 picks thats 12 players with more than 90 games 5-6 years later. Like I said just because the GC are getting a heap of picks it doesn't mean they are guaranteed success, they are still going to have to work pretty damn hard to achieve it.

If they were picked up in the 2004 draft then they could have played a maximum 110 home and a way games plus 11 this year in the FIVE completed seasons so that figure of 7 players is not surprising allowing for Injury/loss of form/Development.Lets face it they aint all going to be as hardy as stynes and knighter.

Not all 17/18 year olds start their careers the first game in their first season......ie jack watts etc

As for the 2005 draft given the maximum number of games (not counting finals) is 99 then i would be just as surprised that only 6 of 15 have played 90-100 games.

If youre going to use numbers then you should use your fingers to count!

 

[NQTIGER]

So they think we're going to see possibly the two greatest sides ever in the same era? Even better than Hawthorn of the 80's or Melbourne of the 50's?

I doubt it.


If you look at the 04 draft only 7 of the top 20 are decent/gun players. 9 if you include Monfries and Williams. That's less than a 50% success rate.

In 05 it's about 10/20, with only 6 capable of being true stars.

Right now from 06 only 7 look to be stars, that's 35%.

And look at the top 20 from the 01 "superdraft".

Hodge
Ball - meh
Judd
Polak - FAIL
X.Clarke -FAIL
Sampi - FAIL
Hale - meh
Bartel
Molan - FAIL
Sam Power FAIL
Richard Cole - FAIL
Brent Riley - meh
Dal Santo
Ashley Watson - FAIL
Barry Brooks - FAIL
Rick Ladson - meh
James Kelly
Shane Harvey - FAIL
Gram
Elstone - FAIL

So half the guys in the top 20 of the best draft ever failed badly. A furthur 4 are only average. And this is despite coming into established clubs eith excellent facilities and stronger senior players to guide them.

Odds are only 6-10 of those guys will be genuine stars. They aren't going to have 15 Bartel's or Chappy's running around for them.

That also applies to our development /progression not all our picks are going to make it.

I dont give a flying @#$% about who GC or GWS get but who we get.!!!!!!!!

We have a long long way to go

Shit there are a lot of sainters in that

 

[Greggy]

If you watch the form of most 16-17 yearolds pre draft a lot drop away, just look at Butcher last year.

Playing AFL in a Rugby world is not exactly appealing, especially to kids who think they're pretty good and want to be on show, I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of these kids turn their backs on both teams like Buckley did at the Brisbane Bears.

 

[_RT_]

You are missing the point NQT, the way they were talking GC will be a finals side in 2012, that means they are expecting everyone of their kids from last year and this years draft to perform from the get go and that all of them are going to keep performing right through until 2014-15 when they expect them to win their first flag. To do that they are going to have to do something extraordinary.

 

[Simmonds2Hislop]

That also applies to our development /progression not all our picks are going to make it.

I dont give a flying @#$% about who GC or GWS get but who we get.!!!!!!!!

We have a long long way to go

Shit there are a lot of sainters in that

As crap as we are we already have a large headstart on the Gold Coast. Every club does. After this years draft they'll be getting the same picks as every other club does (ladder postion pending). If they fail to win the spoon next they will get pick 6 at best. If we go back to back spoons they'll get pick 8 next year.

 

[CoggaRules]

Part and parcel of the expansion blueprint. The AFL understands after past failures that took a bucketload of money and manipulation to make them a success..i.e. Sydney, that they cant afford to have these 2 teams wallowing in the mire for a decade. They have to produce what the Lions produced in that run under Mathews and you have your captive audience.
The bottom line is without a history or a culture to sell, you can only suck the punters in by winning. The AFL knows that, the GC & GWS know that, Sheeds aint stupid and he knew that, and I can guarantee you that all the shit that gets talked about in regards to huge offers being made to youngsters atm, and how those youngsters would be mad to go, since all the muppets suggest the pressure will be on etc etc, is absolute big time BS. These 2 new clubs are going to kick butt from day one and when they sell themselves to prospects, like our very own Dustin Martin etc etc, they also sell the fact that within the contract period they will be playing finals.
There is also alot of talk about the Hunts and Folaus of the world and why they were shown the money. Well, reading Matt Rendell's comments, its a stroke of genius. Both clubs would be able to carry a player like that in their list, even in their 22 and the bonus is that the rugby die hards, from league to union will want a gig or 2. Add winning to that equation and you have instant crowd pulling to the max.
In a nutshell, the road ahead looks as barron as its ever looked for us....hopefully we can be in the mix against them..i.e. its a good time to be rebuilding....it aint the best time, but 3 or 4 years down the track whoever is on the downslide, i.e a team like the aints or the scum....it will take them 2 decades to rebuild..which is perfect..
What I hope is part of the blueprint is that the AFL must know that they also require powerhouse crowd pulling power to be also present from the current teams. I can guarantee you that they know that when the time comes, they wouldnt want the Bulldogs, Roos etc in the finals mix and would be high fiving if the finals were made up of GC, GWS, Us, Tankers, Scum, Weagles, Bummers, Swans and Lions. That would reap them a bonanza in the form of numbers wanting to watch games.

 

[CoggaRules]

You are missing the point NQT, the way they were talking GC will be a finals side in 2012, that means they are expecting everyone of their kids from last year and this years draft to perform from the get go and that all of them are going to keep performing right through until 2014-15 when they expect them to win their first flag. To do that they are going to have to do something extraordinary.

Thats why they are after the G Abletts etc of the world RT. And dont be fooled, all the rumours and all the denials are the same as coach x is on the skids, President y comes out and says he is safe and coach x gets shown the door, not to long after it.

 

[Tiger_Stripes]

I'm going to relish every flogging GC cops next year. Talented or not, 17 kids, even if half are guns, aren't going to do shit for a long time, no culture, no ethos, no experience. They also have to adapt to the game, overcome injury, and not tire out. Whilst players like Dustin and Trengove can come in and have an immeditate impact, GC's aside who may also, their KPPs are years away in development. Sorry fellas, but they're gonna be crap, and we're gonna beat them, place your bets now. No way we're getting pick four next year even if we tank

 

[CoggaRules]

I'm going to relish every flogging GC cops next year. Talented or not, 17 kids, even if half are guns, aren't going to do shit for a long time, no culture, no ethos, no experience. They also have to adapt to the game, overcome injury, and not tire out. Whilst players like Dustin and Trengove can come in and have an immeditate impact, GC's aside who may also, their KPPs are years away in development. Sorry fellas, but they're gonna be crap, and we're gonna beat them, place your bets now. No way we're getting pick four next year even if we tank

Sorry dude, but somehow the bold part of your post doesnt quite add up. So you are suggesting that if the 22 has 8 guns included in the line up they aren't going to do shit for a long time? So if you are on the money, what does that equate to with us, when we have 3 maybe 4 guns in our team as we speak? So they have to overcome all that shit that you talk about, adapt, not tire out, but we dont ?
You seem to forget that they havent picked up players from other countries and non footy states, they have hand picked the pick of the bunch from all the junior comps that we pick from fool.

 

[Tiger_Stripes]

Sorry dude, but somehow the bold part of your post doesnt quite add up. So you are suggesting that if the 22 has 8 guns included in the line up they aren't going to do shit for a long time? So if you are on the money, what does that equate to with us, when we have 3 maybe 4 guns in our team as we speak? So they have to overcome all that shit that you talk about, adapt, not tire out, but we dont ?
You seem to forget that they havent picked up players from other countries and non footy states, they have hand picked the pick of the bunch from all the junior comps that we pick from fool.

To me it sounds as if you only read the bold part of my post. You cannot keep an honest face and say that a KPP will have an immediate impact in footy. Look at Vickery, Watts, Gumbleton, Astbury, Butcher (still injured), Ayce Cordy (injured), Riewoldt, Franklin. Aside from Naitanui, who is so presently overrated it's not funny, which of those is having or had an impact in the first 3 years. Granted, everyone said Franklin was a star, and make no mistake, GC will be lucky if they have one of him, and he took 3-4 years to come into it. Barring injury also.

Midfielders nowadays are the best placed to come in and have an impact so, let's theorise that GC comes in with 8 of those 17 youngsters certified GUN midfielders, but without any developed key forward or back prospects, all the KPP roles will be filled by second rate AFL or VFL players. Are you saying then that they will have, in one year, drafted a Lids, Cotchin, Martin, Foley, Trengove, Scully, Morabito, Gysberts/Bastinac? Basically, they'd have to have a miracle single draft, then their KPP's would have to go on steroids, not get injured and not be rested, (even Martin, Scully and Trengove have had a week off). It's a deep draft, but it is not that deep. Let's also pretend they pull no Fiora or JON's.

You could argue we're better positioned because we KNOW we have certified 4-5 guns, at least some of our KPP's are developed or along in their development cycle and we have a team culture, with older players upholding it. You seriously believe a team can have a winning culture where the team leaders and experience holders are VFL players and AFL players who betrayed their clubs?

 

[Tzatziki_Man]

It's a concern, that is for sure.

If anyone claims that it is not a concern then they are kidding themselves.

What concerns me is that this franchise not only has all this strong young talent, but they have an extra 1 million dollars in salary cap and can sign up to 16 uncontracted players.

Regardless of whether those players will sign or not, that is WAY too much advantage for a new club to be given, it's unfair to existing clubs.

Quite frankly I hope these franchises struggle, to the extent of Fremantle, and after hard work - without distinct advantages, they can fight for the flag.

 

[Vitriol]

although i agree its a bs situation it may not be as dire as it seems

here are geelongs late draft premiership players (and i think i missed some)
56 mooney
47 milburn
45 scarlett
24 wojcinski
31 chapman
38 ling
47 enright
44 hunt
41 rooke
40 ablett
24 johnson
40 byrnes
38 blake
61 stokes
41 hawkins

although admitedly some are from f/s selections just because someone is taken as a first round pick doesnt mean they will win a premiership and be a great player

just look at the 99 draft ezra bray taken at pick 17 and doesnt play a game then chapman, ling and enright taken at 31, 38 and 47 go on to be champions (although corey was taken at 8 as well that draft)

it takes good late round drafting, good trading and good coaching and development to win a premiership just as much as good picks

 

[ata33cro]

If you watch the form of most 16-17 yearolds pre draft a lot drop away, just look at Butcher last year.

Playing AFL in a Rugby world is not exactly appealing, especially to kids who think they're pretty good and want to be on show, I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of these kids turn their backs on both teams like Buckley did at the Brisbane Bears.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of them actual do a Buckley and come back to Melb.

Also, the two teams might recruit the best players but what about membership? What happens if the crowd attendance ends up being 10,000 per game.