Prediction Thompson, Mackay & Douglas. How many combined Games and what Impact in 2017

[Vader]

IF his form is good .....and IF team mates do not overtake CEY during Pre-Season .....lots of IF's

I'm not sure they even need to overtake him. Beech & Greenwood are already ahead of him, based on the SANFL B&F results from last year.

 

[Bring back Bas]

Mackay was preferred to Seedsman, and it wasn't just because of injuries. Compare their B&F votes and it's clear that the coaches were happier with Mackay than Seed.

Hampton has done nothing to suggest that he'll leapfrog Mackay. Nothing at all. Yes, injuries meant he didn't even get to fire a shot in 2016, but his history at GWS gives no indication that Mackay's position is in any danger at all.

Happy to agree that Mackay benefited from Knight's injury.

MacKay was preferred to Seedsman in 2016 when both were fit but the lack of continuity Seedsman had with his regular injuries would have effected this. If both players have an uninterrupted season next year the result could be different.

Hampton unable to show anything last year but I don't think you are giving him enough credit for what he showed in his time at GWS. He evidently showed enough that Adelaide was willing to bring him over on a 3 year deal and I don't imagine they did this with the idea of playing him in the SANFL.

Even if MacKay is ahead of Seedsman and Hampton, we should see improvement in Milera, Cameron and Knight as well as the inclusion of Gallucci to the list. There are enough options there that one of them is bound to come off which is why a lot of us think that MacKay won't be best 22 in 2017.

 

[Vader]

MacKay was preferred to Seedsman in 2016 when both were fit but the lack of continuity Seedsman had with his regular injuries would have effected this. If both players have an uninterrupted season next year the result could be different.

Hampton unable to show anything last year but I don't think you are giving him enough credit for what he showed in his time at GWS. He evidently showed enough that Adelaide was willing to bring him over on a 3 year deal and I don't imagine they did this with the idea of playing him in the SANFL.

Even if MacKay is ahead of Seedsman and Hampton, we should see improvement in Milera, Cameron and Knight as well as the inclusion of Gallucci to the list. There are enough options there that one of them is bound to come off which is why a lot of us think that MacKay won't be best 22 in 2017.

I'm quite happy to accept that Mackay may not be in the best 22 in 2017. My only issue is with the players listed as his likely replacements.

Seedsman scored 74 votes in the B&F, from 15 matches, at an average of 4.93 votes per game. Mackay picked up 118 votes, from 19 games, at 6.21 votes per game. Mackay was consistently named in the 18, with Seedsman frequently appearing on the interchange bench when the teams were named on Thursday nights. When it came to finals, Mackay was selected and Seedsman was not - and it wasn't because Seedsman's late season injury (given that he was playing SANFL before the finals began). There is literally zero evidence to support a theory of Seedsman being preferred to Mackay.

When you say "Cameron", are you talking about Charlie, or CEY? Charlie is already in the team, and is hardly going to be kicking Mackay out. CEY has never been preferred to Mackay at any stage in his career, and it's hard to see why that would change after just 14 games in 6 years on the list.

Hampton is more of an unknown, but I really wouldn't read anything into him getting a 3-year contract. Contracts mean bugger all once the player is on our list. Once we've got the player, it's up to them to perform and get themselves into the team. How long was Richard Tambling's contract? How many games did he play for the AFC?

I still think that Knight, and possibly Greenwood, are the players most likely to take his place in the side.

 

[Bring back Bas]

I'm quite happy to accept that Mackay may not be in the best 22 in 2017. My only issue is with the players listed as his likely replacements.

Seedsman scored 74 votes in the B&F, from 15 matches, at an average of 4.93 votes per game. Mackay picked up 118 votes, from 19 games, at 6.21 votes per game. Mackay was consistently named in the 18, with Seedsman frequently appearing on the interchange bench when the teams were named on Thursday nights. When it came to finals, Mackay was selected and Seedsman was not - and it wasn't because Seedsman's late season injury (given that he was playing SANFL before the finals began). There is literally zero evidence to support a theory of Seedsman being preferred to Mackay.

When you say "Cameron", are you talking about Charlie, or CEY? Charlie is already in the team, and is hardly going to be kicking Mackay out. CEY has never been preferred to Mackay at any stage in his career, and it's hard to see why that would change after just 14 games in 6 years on the list.

Hampton is more of an unknown, but I really wouldn't read anything into him getting a 3-year contract. Contracts mean bugger all once the player is on our list. Once we've got the player, it's up to them to perform and get themselves into the team. How long was Richard Tambling's contract? How many games did he play for the AFC?

I still think that Knight, and possibly Greenwood, are the players most likely to take his place in the side.

I think that you are misunderstanding what i am trying to say. I am not suggesting that Seedsman was preferred to MacKay last year, I am saying that it is possible to that he will be next year, especially if Seedsman has a better year with injuries and gets some more continuity in his game.

I am talking about Charlie Cameron spending more time in the midfield and on the wing. I realise that he is already in the best 22 but if he spends more time in the middle of the ground, someone will need to replace him in the forward line and I don't think that would be MacKay.

The term of the Hampton's contract isn't the important factor. The fact that He was recruited at all is a pretty obvious indication that the club, at the time, thought he could add something to the best 22. Spending most of last season injured wouldn't have changed the opinion of him much either way. As you said "he hasn't proven anything yet".

 

[Vader]

I think that you are misunderstanding what i am trying to say. I am not suggesting that Seedsman was preferred to MacKay last year, I am saying that it is possible to that he will be next year, especially if Seedsman has a better year with injuries and gets some more continuity in his game.

Where do you propose Seedsman finds these magic beans, which will transform him into a player the coaches rate more highly than Mackay? Seedsman is 24, almost 25. He's the 16th oldest player on our list. He's played 64 AFL games. We're not talking about a 19/20yo kid who is looking for a breakout year. What is the basis for thinking he'll be preferred to Mackay next year? He wasn't this year, so what's going to change?

I am talking about Charlie Cameron spending more time in the midfield and on the wing. I realise that he is already in the best 22 but if he spends more time in the middle of the ground, someone will need to replace him in the forward line and I don't think that would be MacKay.

Thompson & Lyons are gone from our 2016 midfield. You may well be correct in suggesting more midfield time for Charlie. That doesn't mean that it will come at Mackay's expense.

The term of the Hampton's contract isn't the important factor. The fact that He was recruited at all is a pretty obvious indication that the club, at the time, thought he could add something to the best 22. Spending most of last season injured wouldn't have changed the opinion of him much either way. As you said "he hasn't proven anything yet".

Let's be realistic about what happened last year. Ogilvie was looking at the worst draft in living memory, so the list managers decided to roll the dice on trading for players instead of taking draftees that Ogilvie really didn't rate. The signing of Seedsman, Menzel & Hampton was akin to throwing darts at a dartboard and hoping that at least one of them is a bullseye. It's no different to what happened in 2011, when we traded for JJ, Lynch and LJ - JJ & Lynch worked out well, LJ has long since left the building.

Seedsman, Hampton and Menzel all came to the AFC with question marks hanging over their heads. We now know what Seedsman has to offer, and he's a fringe player who sits below Mackay in the pecking order (Mackay himself being a fringe player as well). We have yet to see whether or not Menzel & Hampton can put it together. Right now, both are unproven at AFL level, trading on junior performances which are an increasingly distant memory. It's make or break time for both players this year.

 

[Crow_Magnon]

Combined, about 20 games, Impact - zero. Would prefer if none of those three make our best 22.

 

[Bring back Bas]

I think that you are misunderstanding what i am trying to say. I am not suggesting that Seedsman was preferred to MacKay last year, I am saying that it is possible to that he will be next year, especially if Seedsman has a better year with injuries and gets some more continuity in his game.

Where do you propose Seedsman finds these magic beans, which will transform him into a player the coaches rate more highly than Mackay? Seedsman is 24, almost 25. He's the 16th oldest player on our list. He's played 64 AFL games. We're not talking about a 19/20yo kid who is looking for a breakout year. What is the basis for thinking he'll be preferred to Mackay next year? He wasn't this year, so what's going to change?

Thompson & Lyons are gone from our 2016 midfield. You may well be correct in suggesting more midfield time for Charlie. That doesn't mean that it will come at Mackay's expense.

Let's be realistic about what happened last year. Ogilvie was looking at the worst draft in living memory, so the list managers decided to roll the dice on trading for players instead of taking draftees that Ogilvie really didn't rate. The signing of Seedsman, Menzel & Hampton was akin to throwing darts at a dartboard and hoping that at least one of them is a bullseye. It's no different to what happened in 2011, when we traded for JJ, Lynch and LJ - JJ & Lynch worked out well, LJ has long since left the building.

Seedsman, Hampton and Menzel all came to the AFC with question marks hanging over their heads. We now know what Seedsman has to offer, and he's a fringe player who sits below Mackay in the pecking order (Mackay himself being a fringe player as well). We have yet to see whether or not Menzel & Hampton can put it together. Right now, both are unproven at AFL level, trading on junior performances which are an increasingly distant memory. It's make or break time for both players this year.

It does necessarily mean that it will come at the expense of Mackay but if Douglas, Atkins, Cameron and Knight all spend more time through the midfield (which I expect that they will), even with Lyons gone it will come at the expense of someone and you would have to agree that Mackay is close to the first one out. it is likely that he will either have to play a different role or he will be dropped.

You can't know how well we rated Hampton, Seedsman and Menzel without being inside the club. Considering that we traded our 2016 second rounder for Hampton (which was viewed as one of the best second rounds of a draft in living memory) it suggests that he was highly rated. How highly? neither of us know, but it is obvious that in October 2015 the club thought he could become a part of our best 22. Since then he has had one season ruined by injury which you admit "didn't prove anything" yet you are now suggesting that he is next to no chance of breaking into the 22.

 

[Vader]

It does necessarily mean that it will come at the expense of Mackay but if Douglas, Atkins, Cameron and Knight all spend more time through the midfield (which I expect that they will), even with Lyons gone it will come at the expense of someone and you would have to agree that Mackay is close to the first one out. it is likely that he will either have to play a different role or he will be dropped.

I do agree that Mackay is "close to the first one out". No argument there at all. I just don't see how giving additional midfield time to players who are already in the 22 is likely to result in him being kicked out of the team. It makes no sense at all, given that Thompson & Lyons are no longer going to be there.

I also note that you highlighted a bit about Seedsman & injuries. Sorry, I just don't swallow that for a second. Injuries are not the reason why he was behind Mackay. He was behind Mackay for almost the entire year, not just after he got injured late in the season. If Seedsman is to overtake Mackay, then he needs to demonstrate real improvement - not just greater continuity. I don't see where that improvement is going to come from, given his age & experience. By this point in time Seedsman is a WYSIWYG player, and WYG isn't better than Mackay (at least in the eyes of our coaches).

You can't know how well we rated Hampton, Seedsman and Menzel without being inside the club. Considering that we traded our 2016 second rounder for Hampton (which was viewed as one of the best second rounds of a draft in living memory) it suggests that he was highly rated. How highly? neither of us know, but it is obvious that in October 2015 the club thought he could become a part of our best 22. Since then he has had one season ruined by injury which you admit "didn't prove anything" yet you are now suggesting that he is next to no chance of breaking into the 22.

I'm suggesting that his chances are dubious at best. His career highlights package is basically U17 stuff, with almost no runs on the board since joining the AFL. He wasn't good enough for GWS, finishing 2015 in the NEAFL after 50-odd games at AFL level. They were quite happy to offload him. I'm reluctant to make assumptions about him being the 2nd coming of Jesus Christ, given that he's done precisely diddly squat for his entire AFL career. Form reversals like that do not happen very often.

 

[rocket18]

What I would like to see is zero for all three.

Our conservative, experience loving coaching panel will see these three play 40+ games, very sad.

Only chance is if Pyke has learnt from his rookie mistakes and grows a set of balls.

 

[Bring back Bas]

I do agree that Mackay is "close to the first one out". No argument there at all. I just don't see how giving additional midfield time to players who are already in the 22 is likely to result in him being kicked out of the team. It makes no sense at all, given that Thompson & Lyons are no longer going to be there.

I also note that you highlighted a bit about Seedsman & injuries. Sorry, I just don't swallow that for a second. Injuries are not the reason why he was behind Mackay. He was behind Mackay for almost the entire year, not just after he got injured late in the season. If Seedsman is to overtake Mackay, then he needs to demonstrate real improvement - not just greater continuity. I don't see where that improvement is going to come from, given his age & experience. By this point in time Seedsman is a WYSIWYG player, and WYG isn't better than Mackay (at least in the eyes of our coaches).

I'm suggesting that his chances are dubious at best. His career highlights package is basically U17 stuff, with almost no runs on the board since joining the AFL. He wasn't good enough for GWS, finishing 2015 in the NEAFL after 50-odd games at AFL level. They were quite happy to offload him. I'm reluctant to make assumptions about him being the 2nd coming of Jesus Christ, given that he's done precisely diddly squat for his entire AFL career. Form reversals like that do not happen very often.

Well if some of the other players mentioned are playing midfield at Mackay's expense it means Mackay will either need to play in another area of the ground or lose his place in the team. I don't think Mackay plays any position other than midfield well enough to get a game consistently.

What do WYSIWYG and WYG mean?

Were you this down on Hampton when he first came to the club or did he do something last year that put you off him?

 

[Vader]

Well if some of the other players mentioned are playing midfield at Mackay's expense it means Mackay will either need to play in another area of the ground or lose his place in the team. I don't think Mackay plays any position other than midfield well enough to get a game consistently.

What do WYSIWYG and WYG mean?

Were you this down on Hampton when he first came to the club or did he do something last year that put you off him?

What You See Is What You Get

What You Get

 

[Bob Neil]

I reckon the over/under for this stat is about 30 games in aggregate and I reckon it will be a fairly good indicator of our success.

Over the line and we're struggling; under the line and we're doing alright.

 

[Vader]

Well if some of the other players mentioned are playing midfield at Mackay's expense it means Mackay will either need to play in another area of the ground or lose his place in the team. I don't think Mackay plays any position other than midfield well enough to get a game consistently.

Were you this down on Hampton when he first came to the club or did he do something last year that put you off him?

I wasn't particularly excited about any of our 2015 recruits. Menzel, Seedsman & Hampton were all around the 50 game mark, none of them finished the 2015 season in their previous clubs' AFL team, and none of them were wanted by their existing club. Seedsman has pretty much proven Collingwood right, and there's no evidence that Carlton or GWS got it wrong either. I don't see any reason to get excited about these players until they actually have some runs on the board - currently Seedsman is batting in single digits and the others are still on a golden duck.

I agree that Mackay is pretty much "midfield or bust". I also think there's a good chance that he'll be overtaken by players coming up from below, long before the end of 2017. Greenwood, Knight, Doedee, and possibly the 2016 draftees, are the most likely in my eyes. I just don't see any reason to think that CEY, or Seedsman will be the player who kicks him out of the team.

 

[Realslimshady2]

Of the 66 available games, I'd probably expect them to play a combined half of that. Somewhere in the 20-25 would be ideal.

The AFC would have already locked in 22 games from Mackay assuming he is fit. His tancity and agression at the ball would be sorely missed if he were not picked.

 

[SugarShane]

They knew Thommo getting signed up again would be received poorly because the fans think he's cooked. So they cushioned the blow of him re-signing with some non-specific, non-committal utterances about mentoring and coaching. Hinting that he maaaaay not even play all that much anyway so don't get our knickers in a twist.

Where better to coach and mentor from than the centre square? Another AFC masterstroke.

 

[Bring back Bas]

I wasn't particularly excited about any of our 2015 recruits. Menzel, Seedsman & Hampton were all around the 50 game mark, none of them finished the 2015 season in their previous clubs' AFL team, and none of them were wanted by their existing club. Seedsman has pretty much proven Collingwood right, and there's no evidence that Carlton or GWS got it wrong either. I don't see any reason to get excited about these players until they actually have some runs on the board - currently Seedsman is batting in single digits and the others are still on a golden duck.

I agree that Mackay is pretty much "midfield or bust". I also think there's a good chance that he'll be overtaken by players coming up from below, long before the end of 2017. Greenwood, Knight, Doedee, and possibly the 2016 draftees, are the most likely in my eyes. I just don't see any reason to think that CEY, or Seedsman will be the player who kicks him out of the team.

I am a bit more bullish about those 3 than you are - I obviously rate Seedsman and Hampton higher than you do. The Menzel trade was the best of them though. It is likely that we traded out two "good honest players" in Kerridge and pick 28 for what may well be a bust in Menzel but we don't need anymore "good honest players", what we need is elite talent and Menzel has more potential to be that than both of Kerridge and pick 28.

 

[Vader]

I am a bit more bullish about those 3 than you are - I obviously rate Seedsman and Hampton higher than you do. The Menzel trade was the best of them though. It is likely that we traded out two "good honest players" in Kerridge and pick 28 for what may well be a bust in Menzel but we don't need anymore "good honest players", what we need is elite talent and Menzel has more potential to be that than both of Kerridge and pick 28.

I rate Menzel's talent.. I just don't rate the chances of Adelaide getting him to demonstrate it on a consistent basis at AFL level.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I rate Menzel's talent.. I just don't rate the chances of Adelaide getting him to demonstrate it on a consistent basis at AFL level.

Based on what?

Last year he had an injury interrupted season, but he appears over it now.

Why couldn't he now get back to his best, which is good enough for AFL?

 

[Crow Envy]

MacKay was preferred to Seedsman in 2016 when both were fit but the lack of continuity Seedsman had with his regular injuries would have effected this. If both players have an uninterrupted season next year the result could be different.

Hampton unable to show anything last year but I don't think you are giving him enough credit for what he showed in his time at GWS. He evidently showed enough that Adelaide was willing to bring him over on a 3 year deal and I don't imagine they did this with the idea of playing him in the SANFL.

Even if MacKay is ahead of Seedsman and Hampton, we should see improvement in Milera, Cameron and Knight as well as the inclusion of Gallucci to the list. There are enough options there that one of them is bound to come off which is why a lot of us think that MacKay won't be best 22 in 2017.

You might want to look at how well Seedsman was polling in the games before he got injured mid season.

After that he had a stop start finish to the year and never had the continuity of play to be a serious threat in the finals.

What we did see was Mackay stink it up against West Coast and Sydney when the heat was on. Basically a repeat of 2015.

 

[Vader]

Based on what?

Last year he had an injury interrupted season, but he appears over it now.

Why couldn't he now get back to his best, which is good enough for AFL?

Because I don't think he'll ever get himself fit enough, or motivated enough, or consistent enough, to ever deliver on his talent. He didn't at Carlton, and we spent all last year de-Carltonising him - I doubt we'll ever succeed.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Because I don't think he'll ever get himself fit enough, or motivated enough, or consistent enough, to ever deliver on his talent. He didn't at Carlton, and we spent all last year de-Carltonising him - I doubt we'll ever succeed.

Reckon it will only take 1 season to prove you wrong.

Imo, Menzel, Seedsman & Hampton will all play more games than Mackay in 2017.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I rate Menzel's talent.. I just don't rate the chances of Adelaide getting him to demonstrate it on a consistent basis at AFL level.

Ok Vader .......you said nothing along these lines this time last year .....why not then, as he certainly performed twice as bad at Carlton as this season ?

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Reckon it will only take 1 season to prove you wrong.

Imo, Menzel, Seedsman & Hampton will all play more games than Mackay in 2017.

If Pyke is concerned over the steam rolling of Sydney and has a contested ball them .......don't think Seedsman is a lay-down-misere just yet

 

[relapse]

My prediction (will keep it short and sweet)

Too many games

Nowhere near enough impact

 

[Vader]

Ok Vader .......you said nothing along these lines this time last year .....why not then, as he certainly performed twice as bad at Carlton as this season ?

This time last year we didn't realise just how bad things were, with regard to his fitness & application issues. Fast forward 12 months and we now have more information available.