Thought 11 good enough, now maybe 12 not ..

iscah

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Thread starter #1
5 weeks ago I was pretty confident that 11 wins and a good % would be good enough to make the top 8, however now 12 wins maybe not good enough.

The Egos's trip back to reality has seen them get outclassed by Bulldogs and Cats which has not helped us and it is now possible that the ladder could finish

1
2
3
4
5 Roos 52 (assuming they beat Carlton last game)
6 Geelong 48 (assuming they beat Richmond last game)
7 Brisbane 48 (assuming they beat Port and St Kilda last two)
8 Bulldogs 48 (assuming they beat Melbourne and Collingwood)
9 Freo 48


Bulldogs have come into calculations as Collingwood are clearly playing for draft picks and so they could lose by enough that Bulldogs have a better % than us). Although Melbourne could be our saviour if they can win tonight.

All of the above are likely scenarios (that is the team would be favourite with the bookies except) Brisbane winning at St Kilda. And seeing the Saints hobble of Subi last night helps Brisbane.

11 may still be good enough (still likely) but there is chance now that not even 12 will be good enough ..
 

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iscah

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Thread starter #2
Port are winning by 23 points. If they beat Brisbane then it is a double edged sword. It means they will definitely come to play next week as a win will likely get them in, but it also solves our problem, if we win then 12 wins WILL get us in the 8.

If we lose then likelihood is that we will finish 9th. Only realistic chance of making the 8 then is Collingwood beating Bulldogs (assuming they go on to beat Melboure tonight). And given Collingwood put the queue in the rack a month ago (McGuire should be ashamed given his past protestations) that is unlikely.

We were $2.80 to make the 8 before this weekends matches. Despite that against the odds win against Saints I predict we will actually go out in the betting too something like $3.20 given Port will now be playing for something and every result has gone against us so far this weekend.
 

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#3
I used the afl site ladder predictor and if Essendon can beat Melbourne and we lose to to Port by under 30 and the Bulldogs win against Collingwood by under 30 we will make it with 11 wins. 12 wins now regardless of anything means that we make to eight and play Geelong in the first round.
 

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#4
Its very simple, round 21 results have conspired against Freo. Port has indeed beaten the Lions in Brisbane and MUST beat Freo to make the finals. Likewise, Freo has to beat Port to play finals. In short, Power Vs Dockers is a pre-elimination final for 8th spot - nothing higher!

Now, if this was over at Subi, Dockers would have a fighting chance. At AAMI, its hard to see the Power lose before >37 000 fanatics. By the way when was the last time Freo Docked 4 points from the Power at AAMI?
 

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#5
spice18 said:
Its very simple, round 21 results have conspired against Freo. Port has indeed beaten the Lions in Brisbane and MUST beat Freo to make the finals. Likewise, Freo has to beat Port to play finals. In short, Power Vs Dockers is a pre-elimination final for 8th spot - nothing higher!

Now, if this was over at Subi, Dockers would have a fighting chance. At AAMI, its hard to see the Power lose before >37 000 fanatics.
Where have these Port trolls come from?

It's very simple, we play just as well away from home as we do at home. We played like a bunch of fairies for a half at AAMI about 7 weeks ago yet still nearly came away with the 4 points against a side far superior to Port.

If you think a Port win is a certainty, you either haven't been watching your own team's very mediocre performances, or haven't seen enough of Freo on the road.
 
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#6
Rob said:
Where have these Port trolls come from?

It's very simple, we play just as well away from home as we do at home. We played like a bunch of fairies for a half at AAMI about 7 weeks ago yet still nearly came away with the 4 points against a side far superior to Port.
Far superior?

On season results there is some argument, but considering Port played the Crows a week ago and got within 7 points after dominating the second half and should have won if not for some stupid mistakes....

If that's FAR superior I'd like to know your defintion of marginally better....
 

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Thread starter #7
spice18 said:
Its very simple, round 21 results have conspired against Freo. Port has indeed beaten the Lions in Brisbane and MUST beat Freo to make the finals. Likewise, Freo has to beat Port to play finals. In short, Power Vs Dockers is a pre-elimination final for 8th spot - nothing higher!

Now, if this was over at Subi, Dockers would have a fighting chance. At AAMI, its hard to see the Power lose before >37 000 fanatics. By the way when was the last time Freo Docked 4 points from the Power at AAMI?

If Freo win they will certainly finish higher than 8th. It would be 7th at worst, with a possibility of 6th or 5th. Also if Freo lose they can still make the finals although as an earlier thread stated it would mean that Bulldogs can't catch up more than about 56 points on us and we need Melbourne to lose.

Last year was a vintage Port, this year it has gone a bit off and the taste depends on the beholder.
 

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#8
Vox Populi said:
Far superior?

On season results there is some argument, but considering Port played the Crows a week ago and got within 7 points after dominating the second half and should have won if not for some stupid mistakes....

If that's FAR superior I'd like to know your defintion of marginally better....
West Coast Eagles 68
Adelaide 64
St Kilda 52
Sydney Swans 52
Kangaroos 48
Geelong 44
Fremantle 44
Melbourne 44
Port Adelaide 42
Brisbane Lions 40
Western Bulldogs 40
Richmond 36
Essendon 28
Hawthorn 20
Collingwood 20
Carlton 18

Clear enough for you? Yep, i'd call that far superior. As for marginally better? I'd say Geelong, Fremantle, Melbourne, maybe the Roos.

One game does not make a season.....given you drew against the bottom side at home and lost to the 2nd bottom side you should know that.
 

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#9
If we win and either geelong lose to richmond (possible) or kangaroos lose to carlton (unlikely) then Freo will get a home final. If we win and those 2 games don't go our way then we will probably play the cats on the MCG which would be a good result.
 
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#10
Rob said:
One game does not make a season.....given you drew against the bottom side at home and lost to the 2nd bottom side you should know that.
Only a mental midget would think it smart to use examples of games played 3 months ago, and refuse to acknowledge form of one week ago against what you call a FAR superior team.

Wait, let me try.....

Fremantle lost to Hawthorn (bottom 3) by a significant margin at home while Port beat them by over 100 points at their home. Wow, that was easier than I thought.... :rolleyes:
 

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#11
dominguez said:
If we win and either geelong lose to richmond (possible) or kangaroos lose to carlton (unlikely) then Freo will get a home final..

Is that possible with West Coast also having a home final?
 

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iscah

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Ideal scenario is we finish 5th or 8th and win. Then we play the Egos the following week after they lose against Saints (1st/4th). That is assuming they don't lose their 4th game out of 6 this week against Adelaide.

Then we get the chance of revenge from the first derby which we should have won and the second where we let ourselves down badly.
 

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Even 7th will be playing away the MCG as Kangas and Geelong should get 5th and 6th. Is hard to finish 8th on purpose as we would have to lose to Port and then hope that Bulldogs do not win by too much Friday and then on Sunday hope that Essendon win. My nerves may not cope with that.
 

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If we lose we'll need Brissy to lose to an injury depleted saints as well as essendon getting over melbourne.

I don't like those odds, I think we need a win.
 

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#17
Vox Populi said:
Only a mental midget would think it smart to use examples of games played 3 months ago, and refuse to acknowledge form of one week ago against what you call a FAR superior team.

Wait, let me try.....

Fremantle lost to Hawthorn (bottom 3) by a significant margin at home while Port beat them by over 100 points at their home. Wow, that was easier than I thought.... :rolleyes:
You're seriously suggesting the Crows are not far superior to Port at the moment? Fair dinkum.... :rolleyes:
 
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#18
Rob said:
You're seriously suggesting the Crows are not far superior to Port at the moment? Fair dinkum.... :rolleyes:
Some 10 days ago a Port team missing Chad Cornes (big loss), Adam Kingsley (medium loss), Byron Pickett (slight loss), Matthew Bishop (no great loss) and Matthew Primus (no loss), lost to a Crows team with a full complement of players. All mentioned players are now available for selection. Yet it only lost by 7 points after dominating the second half. If that makes the Crows a FAR superior team "AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME", in your eyes, then so be it.
 

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#19
iscah said:
Ideal scenario is we finish 5th or 8th and win. Then we play the Egos the following week after they lose against Saints (1st/4th). That is assuming they don't lose their 4th game out of 6 this week against Adelaide.

Then we get the chance of revenge from the first derby which we should have won and the second where we let ourselves down badly.
It's unlikely we will finish 5th (we need carlton to beat the kangaroos and the blues don't want to win due to priority picks) so the ideal scenario this week would be for Freo to beat port, crows beat the eagles and richmond beat geelong. That way we would get a home final in the first week of the finals and if the eagles lost the first week of the finals (probably against the swans) and Freo won then we would play consecutive finals in Perth. An unlikely series of events but a derby final would see tickets split on membership numbers instead of being an eagles home game and us getting the left over seats. (approx 19,000 Freo supporters and 24,000 WCE)
 

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Thread starter #20
dominguez said:
It's unlikely we will finish 5th (we need carlton to beat the kangaroos and the blues don't want to win due to priority picks) so the ideal scenario this week would be for Freo to beat port, crows beat the eagles and richmond beat geelong. That way we would get a home final in the first week of the finals and if the eagles lost the first week of the finals (probably against the swans) and Freo won then we would play consecutive finals in Perth. An unlikely series of events but a derby final would see tickets split on membership numbers instead of being an eagles home game and us getting the left over seats. (approx 19,000 Freo supporters and 24,000 WCE)

A derby final has been my dream for the last 3 months. Reminds me of Liverpool v Chelsea last year. They played 5 times, Liverpool did not win until the 5th tme. That last match was by far the most important match and got Liverpool into the champions league final. I sense a repeat. We won't beat the Ego's until the one that really counts and hurts them the most ..
 

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#21
iscah said:
A derby final has been my dream for the last 3 months. Reminds me of Liverpool v Chelsea last year. They played 5 times, Liverpool did not win until the 5th tme. That last match was by far the most important match and got Liverpool into the champions league final. I sense a repeat. We won't beat the Ego's until the one that really counts and hurts them the most ..
I have been dreaming the same all season.
 
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