Recommitted Tim Kelly [requested a trade to West Coast]

[Virgin Dog]

Just depends on who he goes to...

Yeah, should fetch fair price going to Freo (at least from the Dogs perspective, we never had trouble with doing fair trades with them, eg. Halming, Crozier). Eagles, I think you'll have a harder time getting the price you guys want as they can be pretty tough at the trade table

 

[Obeanie1]

If I was Eagles I'd offer pick 15 max and if Geelong don't want it they can have him leave for free. If not to WC then another team and he'll be paid a lot more than at Geelong at that team. Geelong screwing him over by not increasing his pay but also want him to stay. Absolute dogs

Um you do realise the Cats cant oncrease his salary until year 3. He gets a base salary plus additional amounts for games played, finals and B&F finish.

So he did get more than a rookie base wage. Just not what he is actually worth.

 

[Obeanie1]

Yeah, should fetch fair price going to Freo (at least from the Dogs perspective, we never had trouble with doing fair trades with them, eg. Halming, Crozier). Eagles, I think you'll have a harder time getting the price you guys want as they can be pretty tough at the trade table

Really.

Like when?

 

[Obeanie1]

I agree with that, but Geelong will be pushing for WCE to involve a 3rd club and get a top 10 pick or whatever they need to bring in Kellys trade replacement (they wont be trading Kelly to take the picks to the draft). One factor overlooked is there was little reason for WCE to bend over backwards last year as they knew they could try again in 12 months. This year that option is gone, Kelly needs to sign a 5 year deal wherever it is so if Geelong and WCE cant find middle ground he has to do 5 years at Geelong, 5 at Freo or the draft. So there will be a lot more pressure on both WCE and the Kelly's to get a deal done. So i don't think last year means much in context.

It sound so easy.

It will come down to a club with a top 10 pick AND a FS or academy kid who will go top 10 then happy to trade down to the Eagles first plus a 2nd.

So quite a few planets need to align.

Eagles have the Swans 2nd too. Need the Swans to finish bottom four.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Really.

Like when?

I am saying tough in the sense of being "firm", not unfair (like Essendon).

Recent examples are not budging on the Kelly deal, taking the Swans for so much in the Blakey pick swap thing they did during last year's draft, the Gold Coast future pick swaps (although that sounded more like incompetence from GC than firmness from WCE), the live trade during last year's draft with GC (again, could argue that was incompetence/desperation from GC but that was a massive price they paid)

 

[Virgin Dog]

It sound so easy.

It will come down to a club with a top 10 pick AND a FS or academy kid who will go top 10 then happy to trade down to the Eagles first plus a 2nd.

So quite a few planets need to align.

Eagles have the Swans 2nd too. Need the Swans to finish bottom four.

There's a GWS Academy kid (Tom Green) who is looking top 5 right now. Although that could easily change, as we saw with Bytel last year (going from potential Pick 1 a year earlier, to a Pick in the 40s due to injury concerns).

Hawks (Finn Maginness) and Port (Jackson Mead) also have a F/S each that both could climb the rankings, so there will probably be plenty of opportunity for the Kelly deal to get done this year if it comes to it

 

[Obeanie1]

There's a GWS Academy kid (Tom Green) who is looking top 5 right now. Although that could easily change, as we saw with Bytel last year (going from potential Pick 1 a year earlier, to a Pick in the 40s due to injury concerns).

Hawks (Finn Maginness) and Port (Jackson Mead) also have a F/S each that both could climb the rankings, so there will probably be plenty of opportunity for the Kelly deal to get done this year if it comes to it

Unlikely GWS will end up with a top 10 pick unless a J Kelly trade gets them one.

Hawk maybe end up with a top 10 pick. Maybe. Can they trade it or do they need to actually use a first rounder this year?

Port are looking top 8 ATM.

And maybe those players are ranked as going top 10.

Lots of maybe's there.

Essendon can't trade theirs.

Lions? Any top academy kids there?

 

[Scotland]

In case that's not rhetorical or sarcasm, the trade was:

Lachie Neale + Pick 30 <---> Pick 5, Pick 19, Pick 55

This values Lachie Neale at between Pick 2 and 3 in draft point value. Subjectively, I think Neale is the more valuable player, partially because I simply think he's a better player, but also because he has proven his ability over a longer stretch of time (with the leadership skills coming with him). He was also forced to be the number 1 mid in the absence of Fyfe (and 2nd when Fyfe was present) while Kelly has been playing behind Danger, Selwood and arguably Duncan (although may overtake Duncan this year).

That means an offer of Pick 5 or 6 should be more than enough for Kelly, and I'd say Geelong would be satisfied with an offer like that

Geelong fans aren't interested in draft pick points. They provide some rough gauge of relative value but unless you are bidding point values don't really mean anything. Pick 10 is basically worth the same as picks 24 & 25 but most people would prefer the former.

Lachie Neale went 1-2-1 in the B&F the last 3 years, was twice WA footballer of the year, has led the AFL in disposals and barely missed a game for 5 years. He was under contract and Brisbane had a top 10 pick they were willing to trade for a quality established midfielder.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Unlikely GWS will end up with a top 10 pick unless a J Kelly trade gets them one.

Hawk maybe end up with a top 10 pick. Maybe.

Port are looking top 8 ATM.

And maybe those players are ranked as going top 10.

Lots of maybe's there.

Essendon can't trade theirs.

Lions? Any top academy kids there?

There's every chance that none of Hawks, GWS or Port have a top 10 pick, so they're not great options.

Doesn't seem to be much coming from Brisbane this year.

Gold Coast hold 2 first rounders this year (I believe their own and Brisbane's) and have an Academy kid, Conor Budarick, who looks like minimum second rounder for now. Could always rise up the standings, prompting them to trade off an early pick (although with 2 firsts, it's either they get a very early pick in before Budarick, or they would have to trade both out, not sure what path they'd take tbh).

Too much uncertainty, but no doubt a deal should get done if Kelly requests a trade. Who knows, could also end up with a non-finalist wanting to trade their first away for an established player, or the Eagles could even get involved in a multi-club trade

 

[Mofra]

There's every chance that none of Hawks, GWS or Port have a top 10 pick, so they're not great options.

I suspect Essendon's first round pick which GWS hold from the Shiel trade last year does end up top ten or very close to it.

 

[Peel67skin]

There's every chance that none of Hawks, GWS or Port have a top 10 pick, so they're not great options.

Doesn't seem to be much coming from Brisbane this year.

Gold Coast hold 2 first rounders this year (I believe their own and Brisbane's) and have an Academy kid, Conor Budarick, who looks like minimum second rounder for now. Could always rise up the standings, prompting them to trade off an early pick (although with 2 firsts, it's either they get a very early pick in before Budarick, or they would have to trade both out, not sure what path they'd take tbh).

Too much uncertainty, but no doubt a deal should get done if Kelly requests a trade. Who knows, could also end up with a non-finalist wanting to trade their first away for an established player, or the Eagles could even get involved in a multi-club trade

I don't know why you put Gold Coast into this discussion , GC not going to take Budarick if he is not a first round pick material , he is like Lachie Neale or Caleb Daniel height which normally go late in the Draft .Budarick is not in Bailey Scott , Thomas , Blakey , quaynor level .

 

[Virgin Dog]

I suspect Essendon's first round pick which GWS hold from the Shiel trade last year does end up top ten or very close to it.

Oh you're right, had forgotten they had Essendon's pick. In that case, at their current rate, Essendon will be lucky to avoid bottom 4, let alone make finals. GWS will probably end up with a pick at 8 or earlier

 

[Virgin Dog]

I don't know why you put Gold Coast into this discussion , GC not going to take Budarick if he is not a first round pick material , he is like Lachie Neale or Caleb Daniel height which normally go late in the Draft .Budarick is not in Bailey Scott , Thomas , Blakey , quaynor level .

That's why I added the line at the bottom about there being too much uncertainty. There's no way to tell where any of these kids will be rated by year end. For all we know, Budarick may not even get drafted at all. And as you said, height can affect this a lot. In terms of ability, Caleb Daniel should have gone top 3 in his draft but instead went in the 40s because his height was seen as a huge potential deficiency.

The one thing working in Eagles' favour in terms of doing an eventual trade is that Gold Coast hold two first rounders, meaning they may be willing to part with one of them for the right price (whereas teams are usually hesitant to trade out of the first round)

 

[Peel67skin]

That's why I added the line at the bottom about there being too much uncertainty. There's no way to tell where any of these kids will be rated by year end. For all we know, Budarick may not even get drafted at all. And as you said, height can affect this a lot. In terms of ability, Caleb Daniel should have gone top 3 in his draft but instead went in the 40s because his height was seen as a huge potential deficiency.

The one thing working in Eagles' favour in terms of doing an eventual trade is that Gold Coast hold two first rounders, meaning they may be willing to part with one of them for the right price (whereas teams are usually hesitant to trade out of the first round)

I don't mind trading out first round pick , but it got to be Jarrod brander type of players , it take time to develop tall players . Gold coast done a lot of mistake , all you can do is admit the mistakes and don't do it again and again .

 

[Scotland]

The one thing working in Eagles' favour in terms of doing an eventual trade is that Gold Coast hold two first rounders, meaning they may be willing to part with one of them for the right price (whereas teams are usually hesitant to trade out of the first round)

...and the whole player being out of contract and wanting to join the club thing.

West Coast aren't going to move heaven and earth to satisfy some arbitrary value. We're not doing a Hawthorn/St Kilda 2016 trade.

 

[Virgin Dog]

...and the whole player being out of contract and wanting to join the club thing.

West Coast aren't going to move heaven and earth to satisfy some arbitrary value. We're not doing a Hawthorn/St Kilda 2016 trade.

Well, yes that too. I just mean it makes things 10x easier for West Coast to satisfy Geelong's asking price if they have access to a top 10 picks to trade for

 

[Parker400]

If he's happy to play in Purple I wouldn't be against trading our first this year for him. Even if it happens to be pick 5 or 6.

In theory.that would mean Freo would of traded 3 first round picks in 2 years..
can't see it happening.looks a one horse race to get Kelly imo

 

[Scotland]

Well, yes that too. I just mean it makes things 10x easier for West Coast to satisfy Geelong's asking price if they have access to a top 10 picks to trade for

Assuming West Coast share Geelong's valuation. Beyond a certain point it's not in a club's interest to trade in a player.

Trading usually revolves around what each party has available rather than hypothetical arbitrary values.

 

[Pulsedriver]

What has to be kept in mind is that negotiations won't be done on equitable terms. Tim coming out of contract tilts the scales in WC's favour. Geelong fans are looking for what's fair (from their perspective) but not so much from the perspective of leverage that WC wield and what WC may have felt coming away from last year's discussions with Geelong.

If West Coast's nose is out of joint...

I expect at the start of trade week they will say something to wce like 'heres deal A that we want heres deal B thats the max compromise we will accept, youve got 72 hours to come up with either.

This play you suggest would be a bluff from Geelong. WC know the score and would scoff at such a strong-arm tactic, especially given Geelong's weak hand. This tactic is hostile and would make WC flip the figurative bird at Geelong and lead to further low-balling them as a F U.

will be pushing for WCE to involve a 3rd club and get a top 10 pick or whatever they need to bring in Kellys trade replacement

What incentive do WC have to involve a third club if it only increases the price WC have to pay? I don't think WC will be that charitable after last year.

One factor overlooked is there was little reason for WCE to bend over backwards last year as they knew they could try again in 12 months. This year that option is gone, Kelly needs to sign a 5 year deal wherever it is so if Geelong and WCE cant find middle ground he has to do 5 years at Geelong, 5 at Freo or the draft. So there will be a lot more pressure on both WCE and the Kelly's to get a deal done. So i don't think last year means much in context.

The pressure isn't on WC to achieve anything if Tim asks to come to WC only. Tim's odds-on to get to WC regardless of means. Geelong have only the trade period to negotiate a deal before he leaves for nothing. The time constraint, and thus pressure, is on Geelong.

Freo won't part with an early 1st rounder and would have to get inventive if Tim chose either WA side to come home to. If Freo trade a valuable asset to gain a valuable asset that won't be around for their next flag tilt, how does that advantage their rebuild?

And lastly, if a deal between Geelong and WC can't be reached, WC take Kelly with their 1st pick in the National draft, or 2nd pick if Sydney finish below Freo. Geelong have something to lose... without compensation. WC can't lose what they don't have. WC be like:

 

[Obeanie1]

I don't mind trading out first round pick , but it got to be Jarrod brander type of players , it take time to develop tall players . Gold coast done a lot of mistake , all you can do is admit the mistakes and don't do it again and again .

Will be stunned if Brander is traded. Eagles fan as a kid and already extended his contract. Kennedy is contracted for next year which will most likely be his last.

Any injury to Barrass, Gov, Kennedy or Darling will likely see Brander get games. Most definitely a highly rated and required player.

For some reason Eagles are playing him off a wing in the WAFL as he has great running capacity.

With Gaff staying the Eagles won't sell the farm to land Kelly. They will likely pay a fairish price being a 1st and 2nd pick / possibly a player.

You Bailey Williams took an absolute screamer on the weekend, could be an option but our ruck stocks need a young up and comer as well.

Eagles are not desperate and hold the whip. If they somehow land Cognilio well Freo here he comes.

The word is that Kelly's wife / family has issues with the Hill's at Freo hence not so keen on Freo. Could be utter BS but thats the 'bush telegraph' from out West.

 

[Peel67skin]

Will be stunned if Brander is traded. Eagles fan as a kid and already extended his contract. Kennedy is contracted for next year which will most likely be his last.

Any injury to Barrass, Gov, Kennedy or Darling will likely see Brander get games. Most definitely a highly rated and required player.

For some reason Eagles are playing him off a wing in the WAFL as he has great running capacity.

With Gaff staying the Eagles won't sell the farm to land Kelly. They will likely pay a fairish price being a 1st and 2nd pick / possibly a player.

You Bailey Williams took an absolute screamer on the weekend, could be an option but our ruck stocks need a young up and comer as well.

Eagles are not desperate and hold the whip. If they somehow land Cognilio well Freo here he comes.

The word is that Kelly's wife / family has issues with the Hill's at Freo hence not so keen on Freo. Could be utter BS but thats the 'bush telegraph' from out West.

I don't really think Eagles are desperate for Tim Kelly like their Fan do . As for Gold Coast no reason to give up first round pick . GC currently have two first round , and Richmond third round .

 

[Warhorse]

What has to be kept in mind is that negotiations won't be done on equitable terms. Tim coming out of contract tilts the scales in WC's favour. Geelong fans are looking for what's fair (from their perspective) but not so much from the perspective of leverage that WC wield and what WC may have felt coming away from last year's discussions with Geelong.

If West Coast's nose is out of joint...



This play you suggest would be a bluff from Geelong. WC know the score and would scoff at such a strong-arm tactic, especially given Geelong's weak hand. This tactic is hostile and would make WC flip the figurative bird at Geelong and lead to further low-balling them as a F U.



What incentive do WC have to involve a third club if it only increases the price WC have to pay? I don't think WC will be that charitable after last year.



The pressure isn't on WC to achieve anything if Tim asks to come to WC only. Tim's odds-on to get to WC regardless of means. Geelong have only the trade period to negotiate a deal before he leaves for nothing. The time constraint, and thus pressure, is on Geelong.

Freo won't part with an early 1st rounder and would have to get inventive if Tim chose either WA side to come home to. If Freo trade a valuable asset to gain a valuable asset that won't be around for their next flag tilt, how does that advantage their rebuild?

And lastly, if a deal between Geelong and WC can't be reached, WC take Kelly with their 1st pick in the National draft, or 2nd pick if Sydney finish below Freo. Geelong have something to lose... without compensation. WC can't lose what they don't have. WC be like:

Tim has shown he will see a contract to provide for his family. He won't go to the draft and if he did he has zero chance of getting to West Coast.

Both clubs have show that they trade in good faith. Very close to a deal last year. Geelong was happy to hold for another year as he is player like a star on rookie wages. It's looking like a good decision as he has improved further on last year and geelong have backed themselves to be amongst it towards the end of the year.

Will be stunned if Brander is traded. Eagles fan as a kid and already extended his contract. Kennedy is contracted for next year which will most likely be his last.

Any injury to Barrass, Gov, Kennedy or Darling will likely see Brander get games. Most definitely a highly rated and required player.

For some reason Eagles are playing him off a wing in the WAFL as he has great running capacity.

With Gaff staying the Eagles won't sell the farm to land Kelly. They will likely pay a fairish price being a 1st and 2nd pick / possibly a player.

You Bailey Williams took an absolute screamer on the weekend, could be an option but our ruck stocks need a young up and comer as well.

Eagles are not desperate and hold the whip. If they somehow land Cognilio well Freo here he comes.

The word is that Kelly's wife / family has issues with the Hill's at Freo hence not so keen on Freo. Could be utter BS but thats the 'bush telegraph' from out West.

You are right regarding brander. His value is less than Kelly's at the moment but he has signed a long term deal and you don't throw away young talented players who want to be at your club.

Bailey Williams is not really worth anything and would only be part of a trade if he specifically requested to be traded.

 

[Pulsedriver]

Tim has shown he will see a contract to provide for his family.

Tim will see a contract if he goes to the draft, for someone will pick him up, and that someone is extremely likely to be West Coast. If Tim went to the draft, he'd be back in Perth training with the WCE before the draft. Tim will see a contract from WC if he went to the draft, but will have to wait until drafted before signing it. It'd be foregone conclusion though; no chance he misses his long term deal and payday.

He won't go to the draft and if he did he has zero chance of getting to West Coast.

Based on what?

Both clubs have show that they trade in good faith.

Oh, so now Geelong fans want to claim 'good faith' is required now that they lack the leverage they held last year. How convenient. What incentive do WC have to pursue a 'good faith' course? Geelong aren't going to redraft Kelly if he goes into the draft. Freo will have a 1st round pick that's too early to use on Kelly. No other clubs will touch a guy that wants back to, is and remaining in Perth.

Very close to a deal last year.

Do you believe WC are oblivious to the changing circumstance of whom now wields leverage? WC retained Gaff and no longer need Tim as Gaff's replacement. What was offered last year is no longer relevant. WC were prepared to pay a premium for a contracted player, but I doubt that will be the case now, especially given there's no reason to.

Geelong require Tim to genuinely be open to a move to Fremantle in order to force a good faith offer from WC, otherwise WC will call Geelong's bluff.

was happy to hold for another year as he is player like a star on rookie wages. It's looking like a good decision as he has improved further on last year and geelong have backed themselves to be amongst it towards the end of the year.

It's good for Geelong's football program this year, but will prove detrimental to his trade value, as Tim's uncontracted status will force Geelong's hand to deal under duress if they want compensation. WC now have another avenue of acquiring Tim without having to bend to Geelong's arbitrary and "extraordinary" evaluation.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

If I was Eagles I'd offer pick 15 max and if Geelong don't want it they can have him leave for free. If not to WC then another team and he'll be paid a lot more than at Geelong at that team. Geelong screwing him over by not increasing his pay but also want him to stay. Absolute dogs

You are aware draftees legally have to be on base wages for the first 2 years? Even Tom Boyd didnt get his payrise until year 3. Geelong can now offer Kelly a huge pay bump for next year which they will.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Tim will see a contract if he goes to the draft, for someone will pick him up, and that someone is extremely likely to be West Coast. If Tim went to the draft, he'd be back in Perth training with the WCE before the draft. Tim will see a contract from WC if he went to the draft, but will have to wait until drafted before signing it. It'd be foregone conclusion though; no chance he misses his long term deal and payday.



Based on what?



Oh, so now Geelong fans want to claim 'good faith' is required now that they lack the leverage they held last year. How convenient. What incentive do WC have to pursue a 'good faith' course? Geelong aren't going to redraft Kelly if he goes into the draft. Freo will have a 1st round pick that's too early to use on Kelly. No other clubs will touch a guy that wants back to, is and remaining in Perth.



Do you believe WC are oblivious to the changing circumstance of whom now wields leverage? WC retained Gaff and no longer need Tim as Gaff's replacement. What was offered last year is no longer relevant. WC were prepared to pay a premium for a contracted player, but I doubt that will be the case now, especially given there's no reason to.

Geelong require Tim to genuinely be open to a move to Fremantle in order to force a good faith offer from WC, otherwise WC will call Geelong's bluff.



It's good for Geelong's football program this year, but will prove detrimental to his trade value, as Tim's uncontracted status will force Geelong's hand to deal under duress if they want compensation. WC now have another avenue of acquiring Tim without having to bend to Geelong's arbitrary and "extraordinary" evaluation.

The whole point about going to the draft is nothing is certain WCE are under no obligation to draft him and given how many years they have spurned him for hed do well to think of that. If he nominates for the draft and WCE choose elsewhere he could well be out of the AFL altogether. Or another club in some other state takes him. Both have happened plenty of times before. His only virtually certain he gets a contract if hes traded, to say its virtually certain he gets one in the draft is absurd. Geelong's leverage only reduces if you actually assume Kelly cares so little about the uncertainty that he's prepared to nominate for the draft which id say is quite unlikely.

The rest of your post is post drivel which facts don't support.