Uncontracted Tim Kelly [requested a trade to West Coast]

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ghostbat12

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Tim Kelly will be a 25 year old gun putting a 5 year contract on his head probably at under market value so he can join a very strong side. You don't reckon every club in the country would look at him knowing you have him locked away for 5 years. The Draft is not an option for the eagles, trading is the only way he gets there.
The clubs can look. But offer will be on table to Geelong. Now it can get something or lose kelly and draft picks.

Don’t kid yourself, Geelong have everything to lose by not trading.
 

ghostbat12

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IMO... If you offered 2019 R1 (P18ish) and 2020 R1 (P*) .. Id say you would get some sort of future pick back say R3 or R2 and it would not involve those players.
I would say it will be a first and a second for Kelly.

Why would we give up another first? He is out of contract.

Geelong fans last year told us about cap space and that Kelly being cheap has value. Well think of all cap space Geelong will save. That has value.
 

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Turbocat

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I would say it will be a first and a second for Kelly.

Why would we give up another first? He is out of contract.

Geelong fans last year told us about cap space and that Kelly being cheap has value. Well think of all cap space Geelong will save. That has value.
I was responding to another WC poster who put forth a deal...
 

Two Planks

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He will end up at the eagles no doubt, but they will have to give up what he is worth. There are no loop holes to get him on the cheap. It would be a different story if the eagles finished below both the Dockers and the cats, but highly unlikely that happens. If he continues to perform at his current level, it will be 2 years of 1st rounders (likely to be mid to late teens picks) with something late coming back your way.
 

Obeanie1

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And so do West Coast.
How can you lose something you dont have?

Eagles didnt lose last trade period. Those two 2nd rounders turned inro three 2nd rounders via astute and mutually respectful trading.

Geelong has a choice. Get something or get nothing.

Eagles are not desperate and will not pay overs. That was clearly proven last trade period.
 

Two Planks

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How can you lose something you dont have?

Eagles didnt lose last trade period. Those two 2nd rounders turned inro three 2nd rounders via astute and mutually respectful trading.

Geelong has a choice. Get something or get nothing.

Eagles are not desperate and will not pay overs. That was clearly proven last trade period.
Not asking to pay overs.

You will however pay market rate.
 

Obeanie1

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Not asking to pay overs.

You will however pay market rate.
Did the Cats pay market rate for Dangerfield?

No.

And what determines the 'market rate' in Tim Kelly's circumstance?

What the club he has nominated is prepared to pay?

The cost to the Eagles to trade in a first round pick before Freo's?

That is really the answer isnt it? The ceiling on what as maximum would be needed to guarantee landing him.

And no. No club outside WA will even think about wasting a 1st rounder on a player who is determined to work in Perth.
 

Two Planks

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Did the Cats pay market rate for Dangerfield?

No.

And what determines the 'market rate' in Tim Kelly's circumstance?

What the club he has nominated is prepared to pay?

The cost to the Eagles to trade in a first round pick before Freo's?

That is really the answer isnt it? The ceiling on what as maximum would be needed to guarantee landing him.

And no. No club outside WA will even think about wasting a 1st rounder on a player who is determined to work in Perth.
If you offer a bunch of 2nd rounders it won't cut it.

1 top 10 pick or 2 top 20 picks is about right. Easiest thing for the eagles is 2 years of 1st rounders and you will get Kelly and a 2nd rounder in return.
 

Pulsedriver

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He will end up at the eagles no doubt, but they will have to give up what he is worth. There are no loop holes to get him on the cheap.
How do you believe Geelong can impose their will on negotiations without having Tim under contract so as to veto WC's offers, given Tim's unconctracted status? Geelong must bend in order to gain some compensation, otherwise Tim ends up in the draft. Geelong had their chance to get full value last year, but they priced themselves out of the market due to wanting to keep Tim. Last year, Geelong had a contract to enforce their will. That's no longer the case.

It would be a different story if the eagles finished below both the Dockers and the cats, but highly unlikely that happens. If he continues to perform at his current level, it will be 2 years of 1st rounders (likely to be mid to late teens picks) with something late coming back your way.
Your evaluation doesn't take into account that Geelong can't compel WC to agree to such an evaluation. The trade scales are tilted in WC's favor due to Tim's uncontracted status and the option of Tim putting a price on his head and nominating a preferred destination. You seem to think the scales are evenly balanced in this trade. Don't fool yourself.
 

Obeanie1

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If you offer a bunch of 2nd rounders it won't cut it.

1 top 10 pick or 2 top 20 picks is about right. Easiest thing for the eagles is 2 years of 1st rounders and you will get Kelly and a 2nd rounder in return.
That all depends on where the Dockers finish and what they do with their 1st rounder.

If for example Freo trade out of the first round well then its the Eagles first plus a fringe player such as Nelson. If the Eagles have a 2nd rounder before Freo's then it drops further.

Just cannot see how the Eagles would bend over and offer two firsts when Kelly is out of contract when they offerred two 2nds when under contract. And recently Geelong admitted they were very close to accepting that.

That simply does not compute.
 

Isaac Cumming No 1

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How do you believe Geelong can impose their will on negotiations without having Tim under contract so as to veto WC's offers, given Tim's unconctracted status? Geelong must bend in order to gain some compensation, otherwise Tim ends up in the draft. Geelong had their chance to get full value last year, but they priced themselves out of the market due to wanting to keep Tim. Last year, Geelong had a contract to enforce their will. That's no longer the case.



Your evaluation doesn't take into account that Geelong can't compel WC to agree to such an evaluation. The trade scales are tilted in WC's favor due to Tim's uncontracted status and the option of Tim putting a price on his head and nominating a preferred destination. You seem to think the scales are evenly balanced in this trade. Don't fool yourself.
Actually it's a balance.

These arguments play out many times on BF. It's pretty much meaningless, confronted with the reality of having to sort it out clubs are much more pragmatic. The hand you hold does affect the outcome but none if the stakeholders win including Kelly if he goes to the draft.

If he still wants out, then the probability is very high a deal gets done. It's very likely going to be a compromise. Eagles first rounder seems right to me at late teens probable, maybe some additional change.
 
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Lore

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What is the most the Eagles will be willing to pay at the end of 2019 for Tim Kelly? If Fremantle enter the race then you can also add what they are willing to pay as a relevant factor.

And then what is the least Geelong will be willing to accept for Tim Kelly, at the end of 2019?

Valuations change, what they did or didn't offer last year is immaterial. If all parties are serious about it, the agreed price will fall between those two values. Geelong and whichever club is in the hot seat will have to negotiate a deal that they can both agree on, and if they can't it will go through mediation. Other outcomes range from fairly unlikely to highly unlikely.
 

eastfreo75

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I agree with that, but Geelong will be pushing for WCE to involve a 3rd club and get a top 10 pick or whatever they need to bring in Kellys trade replacement (they wont be trading Kelly to take the picks to the draft). One factor overlooked is there was little reason for WCE to bend over backwards last year as they knew they could try again in 12 months. This year that option is gone, Kelly needs to sign a 5 year deal wherever it is so if Geelong and WCE cant find middle ground he has to do 5 years at Geelong, 5 at Freo or the draft. So there will be a lot more pressure on both WCE and the Kelly's to get a deal done. So i don't think last year means much in context.
Agree.

Some teams may need points for bid players.

Swans traded pick 13 to the Blues then on traded for McGovern.
 

Pure_Ownage

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How can you lose something you dont have?

Eagles didnt lose last trade period. Those two 2nd rounders turned inro three 2nd rounders via astute and mutually respectful trading.

Geelong has a choice. Get something or get nothing.

Eagles are not desperate and will not pay overs. That was clearly proven last trade period.
Last trade period they had a chance to try again in 12 months. This year its now or never.

Last year they had just won a flag this year they might not.

Things can changes because variables do. Im not saying they will trade hard for Kelly but I don't think what happened last year will have any bearing on what happens this year.
 

Obeanie1

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He look very good last night until that knock.

Some on here question his kicking but I only saw one poor kick and the rest were great.

And the kids were awesome.
 
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Turbocat

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He look very good last night until that knock.

Some on here question his kicking but I only saw one poor kick and the rest were great.

And the kids were awesome.
I think the kicking thing was more a mental aclimatisation to the speed of the game..and occasionally just being tad too relaxed. His kicking is as good as anyone by technique .. it is more the decision making imo.
 

Tristan34

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2019 First + 2nd Rounder we got from Sydney

Kelly + 2020 3rd Rounder

Geelong won't find it fair value at all but Kelly is uncontracted and wants to go home. They had their chance to maximize value when he was contracted last year.
I think it was the right call to keep him another year.. Those r2 picks were not worth it.
 

year of the cat

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2019 First + 2nd Rounder we got from Sydney

Kelly + 2020 3rd Rounder

Geelong won't find it fair value at all but Kelly is uncontracted and wants to go home. They had their chance to maximize value when he was contracted last year.
You are kidding right? Two mid 20's picks is "maximising value"? He's appear to have gone to another level again now. If he's comfortable going to Freo which may well now be the case then we should be able to get a better deal than what we were offered last year AND have the benefit of him playing for us this year.
 
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