Recommitted Tim Kelly [requested a trade to West Coast]

[Obeanie1]

You are aware draftees legally have to be on base wages for the first 2 years? Even Tom Boyd didnt get his payrise until year 3. Geelong can now offer Kelly a huge pay bump for next year which they will.

Base pay plus extras.

Kelly earned more than $100k last year due to games played and B&F finish.

Still way under his true value.

 

[Obeanie1]

The whole point about going to the draft is nothing is certain WCE are under no obligation to draft him and given how many years they have spurned him for hed do well to think of that. If he nominates for the draft and WCE choose elsewhere he could well be out of the AFL altogether. Or another club in some other state takes him. Both have happened plenty of times before. His only virtually certain he gets a contract if hes traded, to say its virtually certain he gets one in the draft is absurd. Geelong's leverage only reduces if you actually assume Kelly cares so little about the uncertainty that he's prepared to nominate for the draft which id say is quite unlikely.

The rest of your post is post drivel which facts don't support.

Ok so now the Eagles would pass drafting Kelly in this draft if available.

And you say the other chap is posting drivel.

Really?

 

[Peel67skin]

Base pay plus extras.

Kelly earned more than $100k last year due to games played and B&F finish.

Still way under his true value.

Why not extra base pay and plus extras . If you can get 450k k + 100k
Why walk into Draft and get paid 150k plus 200k extra .

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Unlikely GWS will end up with a top 10 pick unless a J Kelly trade gets them one.

Hawk maybe end up with a top 10 pick. Maybe. Can they trade it or do they need to actually use a first rounder this year?

Port are looking top 8 ATM.

And maybe those players are ranked as going top 10.

Lots of maybe's there.

Essendon can't trade theirs.

Lions? Any top academy kids there?

Gws will get a likely top 10 pick (shiel trade via ess) and more if Kelly goes...they might be happy to trade down if Green looks likely to get an early bid.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Ok so now the Eagles would pass drafting Kelly in this draft if available.

And you say the other chap is posting drivel.

Really?

I didnt say they would i simply said its not virtually certain they will take him like the previous poster said. Its not as if the draft is the day after the trade period too many variables can change in between. He's just running spin to suit an argument i am merely pointing out the reality.

 

[Taylor]

In theory.that would mean Freo would of traded 3 first round picks in 2 years..
can't see it happening.looks a one horse race to get Kelly imo

Fremantle last year traded #5, #6, #11 and #19

Four first round picks traded in one year.

Fremantle has used 3 first round picks in the last two years so we are well ahead of the requirement.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Why not extra base pay and plus extras . If you can get 450k k + 100k
Why walk into Draft and get paid 150k plus 200k extra .

If he goes to the draft again he can actually nominate the contract he requires to be drafted. In his case it wouldn't be roookie wages.

 

[Parker400]

Fremantle last year traded #5, #6, #11 and #19

Four first round picks traded in one year.

Fremantle has used 3 first round picks in the last two years so we are well ahead of the requirement.

Fully aware of that of that mate.was more the point I couldn't see Freo going hard for a 24 year old if it cost say pick 6..

 

[Taylor]

Fully aware of that of that mate.was more the point I couldn't see Freo going hard for a 24 year old if it cost say pick 6..

Also last year, Fremantle traded pick #6 for Jesse Hogan, who was 23 at the time, granted.

If Freo has the same coaching team in charge next exchange period I expect the pressure will be to perform, so trading for immediate impact players will be far more likely.

 

[Peel67skin]

If he goes to the draft again he can actually nominate the contract he requires to be drafted. In his case it wouldn't be roookie wages.

Then there is a big loophole in the system that encourage players to walk out anytime After two years contract .

 

[Lore]

Then there is a big loophole in the system that encourage players to walk out anytime After two years contract .

That loophole has existed for a long time. Drafting a mature age player means agreeing to the $ amount that they want. No other contract details are specified though, only the wages, which I think can be structured however the club sees fit? the player specifies the $ amount for year 1 and year 2 of the contract. The risk being if you set the $ amount too high you could go completely undrafted.

But I guess there's another loophole for those that miss the draft to be taken on as a supplemental listed rookie. But then it's rookie wages again. Supplemental listed rookies can't go back to their original club though until they've been off the list for a year. So he could agree to go to anywhere except Geelong under that circumstance.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Then there is a big loophole in the system that encourage players to walk out anytime After two years contract .

It's a balance. Pretty risky for the player to get the amount right.

 

[Pulsedriver]

The whole point about going to the draft is nothing is certain

What's certain is that Kelly will be selected at some point in the draft if he winds up there.

are under no obligation to draft him

Why are you typing this when WC chased Tim and offered a lot more for him last year wrt draft picks than they would have to in this year's draft? Of course WC are going to take him.

and given how many years they have spurned him for hed do well to think of that.

I'm sure Tim is thinking about what's best for his family, not that no club drafted him until he was well into his 20's.

If he nominates for the draft and WCE choose elsewhere he could well be out of the AFL altogether.

You're looking for doubt, for something to cling to, for hope, but you're reaching and being silly in the process. If Kelly is there, WC will select him. It's at a discounted price compared to what Geelong will ask for. WC won't say no to a plug and play option whilst in a premiership window.

Or another club in some other state takes him.

Tim gets his long term contract and payday regardless, whilst WC focus on Coniglio. WC don't lose anything. That's the worst case scenario for WC, and it's not even likely. You're hoping that this becomes a factor that induces a trade, but it's wishful thinking on your part. If WC trade, it won't be for your reason.

His only virtually certain he gets a contract if hes traded

Tim's certain to be in the AFL next year and on a good contract even if he goes to the draft. You can argue semantics wrt 'virtually certain' if you wish, though.

to say its virtually certain he gets one in the draft is absurd.

Bollocks. Geelong fans pump up Tim's tires, yet now you're attempting to cast doubt as to whether Tim would get picked up in the draft? Pfft!

leverage only reduces if you actually assume Kelly cares so little about the uncertainty that he's prepared to nominate for the draft which id say is quite unlikely.

Your post assumes the uncertainty of Kelly being picked in the draft. Everyone bar the wishing and hoping and thinking and praying Geelong fans know Tim's a certainty to be selected in the draft. To think he won't is absurd.

The rest of your post is post drivel which facts don't support.

Meaning you've got nothing.

 

[Moist Biscuit]

In theory.that would mean Freo would of traded 3 first round picks in 2 years..
can't see it happening.looks a one horse race to get Kelly imo

We used 2 at the end of 2017. Brayshaw and Cerra.

 

[Peel67skin]

That loophole has existed for a long time. Drafting a mature age player means agreeing to the $ amount that they want. No other contract details are specified though, only the wages, which I think can be structured however the club sees fit? The risk being if you set the $ amount too high you could go completely undrafted.

But I guess there's another loophole for those that miss the draft to be taken on as a supplemental listed rookie. But then it's rookie wages again. Supplemental listed rookies can't go back to their original club though until they've been off the list for a year. So he could agree to go to anywhere except Geelong under that circumstance.

Thanks , I don't have problem with supplement list loophole as you mentioned it's still rookie wages . What happen if other club like Fremantle drafted Tim Kelly , can he reject it .

 

[Lore]

Thanks , I don't have problem with SPP as you mentioned it's rookie wages . What happen if other club like Fremantle drafted Tim Kelly , can he reject it .

They're all bound to each other by agreeing to participate in the draft/reading out his name and player number at the draft meeting.

The relevant sections below refer to "Category 1 Players", in particular the info at the top and Section B.



The above screenshot is from the AFL Draft Nomination Booklet (Nov, 2018) available here: https://nabafldraftnom.com.au/images/form/booklet_mens.pdf

 

[Pure_Ownage]

That loophole has existed for a long time. Drafting a mature age player means agreeing to the $ amount that they want. No other contract details are specified though, only the wages, which I think can be structured however the club sees fit? The risk being if you set the $ amount too high you could go completely undrafted.

But I guess there's another loophole for those that miss the draft to be taken on as a supplemental listed rookie. But then it's rookie wages again. Supplemental listed rookies can't go back to their original club though until they've been off the list for a year. So he could agree to go to anywhere except Geelong under that circumstance.

My understanding was you cant be eligible for the SSP unless your club delists you. If you delist yourself (which Kelly would have to do to nominate for the ND as Geelong are unlikely to delist him) you cant then be picked up in the SSP if you get passed over in the national and the rookie drafts you have to wait 12 months.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

What's certain is that Kelly will be selected at some point in the draft if he winds up there.



Why are you typing this when WC chased Tim and offered a lot more for him last year wrt draft picks than they would have to in this year's draft? Of course WC are going to take him.



I'm sure Tim is thinking about what's best for his family, not that no club drafted him until he was well into his 20's.



You're looking for doubt, for something to cling to, for hope, but you're reaching and being silly in the process. If Kelly is there, WC will select him. It's at a discounted price compared to what Geelong will ask for. WC won't say no to a plug and play option whilst in a premiership window.



Tim gets his long term contract and payday regardless, whilst WC focus on Coniglio. WC don't lose anything. That's the worst case scenario for WC, and it's not even likely. You're hoping that this becomes a factor that induces a trade, but it's wishful thinking on your part. If WC trade, it won't be for your reason.



Tim's certain to be in the AFL next year and on a good contract even if he goes to the draft. You can argue semantics wrt 'virtually certain' if you wish, though.



Bollocks. Geelong fans pump up Tim's tires, yet now you're attempting to cast doubt as to whether Tim would get picked up in the draft? Pfft!



Your post assumes the uncertainty of Kelly being picked in the draft. Everyone bar the wishing and hoping and thinking and praying Geelong fans know Tim's a certainty to be selected in the draft. To think he won't is absurd.



Meaning you've got nothing.

Its not certain anyone will pick Kelly up in the draft if he nominates the fact that players get passed over every year proves it. Possible? Yes. Likely? Possible. Unless you can predict the future it isnt certain. Maybe you need to educate yourself on what the definition of certain is before you go lecturing other people.

As for the rest of your argument if a player wants a payday they are probably going to weigh the guaranteed nature of getting that in a trade more highly than the uncertainty of getting thatcover the uncertainty of maybe getting it in the draft.

 

[Lore]

My understanding was you cant be eligible for the SSP unless your club delists you. If you delist yourself (which Kelly would have to do to nominate for the ND as Geelong are unlikely to delist him) you cant then be picked up in the SSP if you get passed over in the national and the rookie drafts you have to wait 12 months.

I think you might be correct on that, best I can find is a Fox Sports article that quotes an AFL spokesman saying Clarke and Mumford can be listed that way because they've been out for 12 months. I think the mid-season rookie draft may be slightly different though, you could be signed by another club but not your old one (Essendon can't bring Goddard back that way, for example).

 

[Scotland]

That loophole has existed for a long time. Drafting a mature age player means agreeing to the $ amount that they want. No other contract details are specified though, only the wages, which I think can be structured however the club sees fit? the player specifies the $ amount for year 1 and year 2 of the contract. The risk being if you set the $ amount too high you could go completely undrafted.

The current rules are actually better than they were.

Until 2008, due to the standard players contract expiring at the end of November, players who did not wish to sign a new contract with their current club were forced to enter the pre-season draft if they were unable to be traded to another club during the trade week held prior to the national draft.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AFL_pre-season_draft

Under the old rules if Kelly wasn't traded and didn't re-sign he'd have to go into the PSD. Theoretically we could use our first couple of picks in the ND to take kids, then pick up Kelly for nothing in the PSD. That system was s**t. At least now if a valuable player ends up in the draft clubs are forced to use ND picks.

 

[Scotland]

Its not certain anyone will pick Kelly up in the draft if he nominates the fact that players get passed over every year proves it. Possible? Yes. Likely? Possible. Unless you can predict the future it isnt certain. Maybe you need to educate yourself on what the definition of certain is before you go lecturing other people.

Are you suggesting it is possible that Kelly goes into the draft and isn't picked by anyone?

I thought he was going to be taken before West Coast's first round pick.

 

[Lore]

Its not certain anyone will pick Kelly up in the draft if he nominates the fact that players get passed over every year proves it. Possible? Yes. Likely? Possible. Unless you can predict the future it isnt certain. Maybe you need to educate yourself on what the definition of certain is before you go lecturing other people.

As for the rest of your argument if a player wants a payday they are probably going to weigh the guaranteed nature of getting that in a trade more highly than the uncertainty of getting thatcover the uncertainty of maybe getting it in the draft.

It's not a certainty but you'd have to think it was pretty likely, assuming the dollars he puts down are reasonable. The players that you cite as being passed over in the draft - they aren't usually recently named among Brownlow contenders are they?

To be honest I can't see him really taking the draft option. It doesn't suit him and I don't think it suits Geelong or anyone else either. The situation even getting to that point is far less likely than whether he would get drafted if it did get that far.

 

[Lore]

The current rules are actually better than they were.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AFL_pre-season_draft

Under the old rules if Kelly wasn't traded and didn't re-sign he'd have to go into the PSD. Theoretically we could use our first couple of picks in the ND to take kids, then pick up Kelly for nothing in the PSD. That system was s**t. At least now if a valuable player ends up in the draft clubs are forced to use ND picks.

They actually aren't forced to use ND picks.

From the same document, which I quoted above:



https://nabafldraftnom.com.au/images/form/booklet_mens.pdf

The player can choose whether to go in the ND or bypass it and go straight into the PSD.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Are you suggesting it is possible that Kelly goes into the draft and isn't picked by anyone?

I thought he was going to be taken before West Coast's first round pick.

Im suggesthing nothing is certain. Which is precisely the point.

 

[Scotland]

I'm suggesting nothing is certain. Which is precisely the point.

Well that is true but I think some outcomes are slightly more credible than others.