Recommitted Tim Kelly [requested a trade to West Coast]

[frenchconnection]

What pick 17 or 18? I don’t think that’s appealing at all

Now what pick did Geelong originally pick up Tim Kelly again? Nah - a Club never gets a decent pick at 17 or 18?? From memory wasn't Tim Kelly picked up at pick 20 something?

 

[eastfreo75]

More often than not the player stays.

I was merely pointing out both clubs will be paying big bucks to Hill/Kelly.

Who knows, maybe Hill is pushing for a new 4 year contract from Freo to get his payrise 2 years early.

It’s a move that Colin Young does all the time.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

More often than not the player stays.

I was merely pointing out both clubs will be paying big bucks to Hill/Kelly.

Who knows, maybe Hill is pushing for a new 4 year contract from Freo to get his payrise 2 years early.

Yeah, could be true. Fwiw I think Kelly is the better player and Hill will get the bigger contract. Kelly is going to a more cap constrained club whichever of the 3 it is, hill is going to a club struggling to hit the 95% minimum. Kelly is probably factoring club success into the equation, Hill retires a multiple premiership player regardless

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Now what pick did Geelong originally pick up Tim Kelly again? Nah - a Club never gets a decent pick at 17 or 18?? From memory wasn't Tim Kelly picked up at pick 20 something?

If clubs had their time again how likely is it he gets past the top 10?

 

[Scotland]

If clubs had their time again how likely is it he gets past the top 10?

If clubs had their time again he wouldn't be drafted in 2017.

You took Darcy Lang at pick 16 in 2013. Why didn't you pick Ben Brown or Tom Barrass or James Sicily or someone else who went late in the draft? You can apply hindsight to every pick in every draft.

Willie Rioli was pick 52 in 2016. How many players from that draft are clearly better? I'll give you the top 3 and Tom Stewart but the rest are iffy. It's just how it is. So far Rioli is better than Venables (13) and Rotham (37) who we rated higher at the time.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

If clubs had their time again he wouldn't be drafted in 2017.

You took Darcy Lang at pick 16 in 2013. Why didn't you pick Ben Brown or Tom Barrass or James Sicily or someone else who went late in the draft? You can apply hindsight to every pick in every draft.

Willie Rioli was pick 52 in 2016. How many players from that draft are clearly better? I'll give you the top 3 and Tom Stewart but the rest are iffy. It's just how it is. So far Rioli is better than Venables (13) and Rotham (37) who we rated higher at the time.

Definitely agree but you have to acknowledge most of those guys, along with many others, are not the norm. If every pick 57 was a Willie Rioli then VFL sides would be competitive with current AFL sides. The value of the pick is significantly diminished by the risk

 

[Scotland]

Definitely agree but you have to acknowledge most of those guys, along with many others, are not the norm. If every pick 57 was a Willie Rioli then VFL sides would be competitive with current AFL sides. The value of the pick is significantly diminished by the risk

I agree.

Guys like Rioli, Stewart, Kelly, Isaac Smith etc. all share a commonality of not being drafted at 18, though. Liam Ryan only moved to Perth in 2016 at age 20 to play for Subiaco. If he was playing WAFL Colts at 17/18 I doubt he would've been pick 26 at age 21.

I think people overrate picks after the first few. For whatever reason we've focused on having multiple picks in the mid to late teens/early to mid 20s in recent years. I don't think we'd have done better trying to get a pick around 9/10 each year instead. If you can get a top 3-5 pick great, but I think from 8/9 to about 24/25 the difference isn't as stark as people make out.

 

[Obeanie1]

I agree.

Guys like Rioli, Stewart, Kelly, Isaac Smith etc. all share a commonality of not being drafted at 18, though. Liam Ryan only moved to Perth in 2016 at age 20 to play for Subiaco. If he was playing WAFL Colts at 17/18 I doubt he would've been pick 26 at age 21.

I think people overrate picks after the first few. For whatever reason we've focused on having multiple picks in the mid to late teens/early to mid 20s in recent years. I don't think we'd have done better trying to get a pick around 9/10 each year instead. If you can get a top 3-5 pick great, but I think from 8/9 to about 24/25 the difference isn't as stark as people make out.

Those 2nd rounders from 2017 are currently all playing on our best 22. Oscar Allen, Liam Ryan and Petrucellee. Ainsworth lagging after that finger operation but is showing good progress.

All from picks not rated by some on here.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I agree.

Guys like Rioli, Stewart, Kelly, Isaac Smith etc. all share a commonality of not being drafted at 18, though. Liam Ryan only moved to Perth in 2016 at age 20 to play for Subiaco. If he was playing WAFL Colts at 17/18 I doubt he would've been pick 26 at age 21.

I think people overrate picks after the first few. For whatever reason we've focused on having multiple picks in the mid to late teens/early to mid 20s in recent years. I don't think we'd have done better trying to get a pick around 9/10 each year instead. If you can get a top 3-5 pick great, but I think from 8/9 to about 24/25 the difference isn't as stark as people make out.

Definitely. Our squad is made up of later picks and mature agers outside of what's been traded in and it's worked ok. The times we've taken first round picks haven't really worked out for a while. Still, if there's no list defining trade target asking to come to the cats then you kind of have to take your best shot at draft roulette

 

[Scotland]

The best WC can offer picks wise in any trade based on current ladder position is pick 17 and a 2020 Rd 1 pick, which for argument's sake is 11-18.

Keeping Kelly > 17 + 11-18 but may not be an option. Where does Brad Hill sit relative to this? Is 17 + 11-18 a better or worse deal than Hill?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

The best WC can offer picks wise in any trade based on current ladder position is pick 17 and a 2020 Rd 1 pick, which for argument's sake is 11-18.

Keeping Kelly > 17 + 11-18 but may not be an option. Where does Brad Hill sit relative to this? Is 17 + 11-18 a better or worse deal than Hill?

Yeah not sure if it's a better or worse deal, not because I don't rate Hill or I rate draft picks or whatever, but the main question is what to do with the picks. Say Kelly goes for a current and a future 1st. Cats have to use one this year and so they use their one. Then they trade the remaining current year one for a 2020 1st with another club who has maybe a guaranteed 1st round academy kid next year (e.g. western bulldogs). In that example cats rock into 2020 with 3 2020 firsts and a 2021 first all tradeable in a year where they've said goodbye to some seriously well credentialed veterans. I think that's a better position than rolling the dice on draft kids now.

In addition to that Hill will have massive coin thrown at him by the saints. Cats will have some cap given retirements but I doubt it's that much. That's why I don't see him at the cattery next year.

 

[Scotland]

Cats have reportedly offered Kelly $800k for next season which is a $600-700k pay rise depending on how draft salaries plus match payments affect the cp. If he goes then they don't create any cap space as such but they have already planned to be able to fit him in next year should he stay. If Kelly goes I believe the Cats could fit in a $700k-$1m player should they find one. Paying for Hill would be no problem if you saw value in it.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

I don't get the Geelong dislike for B Hill. He is more outside as a midfielder but you need them for the run and carry and meters gained.

Is it because he drives a Holden than the Corio Bay folks go all salty with a possible trade deal with Freo?

 

[The 747]

The fact you want something for Vardy proves my point .

We gave you Vardy for effectively nothing, proves nothing about your point.

 

[The 747]

I don't get the Geelong dislike for B Hill. He is more outside as a midfielder but you need them for the run and carry and meters gained.

Is it because he drives a Holden than the Corio Bay folks go all salty with a possible trade deal with Freo?

We have seen a lot of him play as he used to play for the Hawks. I don't think you will find many Cats fans who rate Hill or want him as any sort of replacement for Kelly. I would rather take your two very late firsts than Hill.

 

[The 747]

The best WC can offer picks wise in any trade based on current ladder position is pick 17 and a 2020 Rd 1 pick, which for argument's sake is 11-18.

Keeping Kelly > 17 + 11-18 but may not be an option. Where does Brad Hill sit relative to this? Is 17 + 11-18 a better or worse deal than Hill?

Kelly for 17 and 11-18 if it comes down to it for mine.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I don't get the Geelong dislike for B Hill. He is more outside as a midfielder but you need them for the run and carry and meters gained.

Is it because he drives a Holden than the Corio Bay folks go all salty with a possible trade deal with Freo?

For most it's not so much dislike as it is a list profile thing. We have a couple of developed options like Duncan and Menegola on the outside plus some players developing and older guys like Joel who can play out games on the wing. You look at inside, ball winning mids under 30 next year we'll have Charlie Constable as a comprehensive list. While hill would make us better, he doesn't make us significantly better. Losing Kelly makes us significantly worse, especially looking at the back half of the season where we have lost contested ball and lousy the game. I appreciate Hill is a good player, he's just not for us I don't think.

 

[Warhorse]

I don't get the Geelong dislike for B Hill. He is more outside as a midfielder but you need them for the run and carry and meters gained.

Is it because he drives a Holden than the Corio Bay folks go all salty with a possible trade deal with Freo?

With Duncan on one wing and Clark developing nicely on the other he is not really a need

 

[boondy]

We gave you Vardy for effectively nothing, proves nothing about your point.

Vardy had never been best 22 in your club or ours . Your club had a surplus of not very good ruck/fwds . Vardy being injury prone wasnt a great loss for your club . We saved you the trouble of delisting him . He did play a vital role fortunately for us in the few games he wasnt injured I admit but if Nic Nat was fit he probably wouldnt have played .

 

[VicBased]

He did play a vital role fortunately for us in the few games he wasnt injured I admit but if Nic Nat was fit he probably wouldnt have played .

Fair to say he was in that vital linkup that won us the premiership. Worth it just for that.

 

[catman2006]

I think we need Wellsy to give us a rundown on this year draft class, how deep does it go, is next year better talent could make all the differences in the make up of picks....

 

[Suma Magic]

In this hypothetical, what would Cats fan choose if you could have of:

2019 first (say 16)
2020 first (12-18)
Brander

 

[STPer18]

In this hypothetical, what would Cats fan choose if you could have of:

2019 first (say 16)
2020 first (12-18)
Brander

Throw in a second.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

Suma Magic - I have amended your post as I see the offer

In this hypothetical, what would Cats fan choose if you could have any two of:

2019 first (say 16)
2020 first (12-18)
Brander

 

[Sixpence]

With Duncan on one wing and Clark developing nicely on the other he is not really a need

Hill is a far better winger than both Duncan and Clark. If Kelly were to go, Duncan would be more than capable of taking his spot as an inside mid and then have the speed and spread of Hill on the wing. Makes your team more balanced, despite Kelly being better than Hill as a player.

It feels like Geelong fans here are only remembering the 23 year old Hill that left Hawthorn rather than the 26 year old Hill that's been playing his best footy at Freo.