Uncontracted Tim Kelly

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Yamumluvsbigcox

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Players normally nominate one club and one club only. Then your scenario comes true. Kelly hasn't done that here. Remember Dylan Shiel saying how close he came to switching to carlton at the last minute to get his move back home, before Ess coughed a kings ransom for him. I'm expecting a similar situation here unless WCE offer up plenty, earlier then the last day of trade period. That allows Geelong time to do other deals.
The difference is sheil was contracted but kelly is not .
 

Art OF war

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Players normally nominate one club and one club only. Then your scenario comes true. Kelly hasn't done that here. Remember Dylan Shiel saying how close he came to switching to carlton at the last minute to get his move back home, before Ess coughed a kings ransom for him. I'm expecting a similar situation here unless WCE offer up plenty, earlier then the last day of trade period. That allows Geelong time to do other deals.
Dylan Shiel was contracted as was Kelly. Essendon (and WCE) needed to stump up the asking price because both were under contract.
 

CatToTheFuture

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This is so incorrect it’s silly. Once a player decides either Fremantle or Eagles that’s pretty much it. There might be posturing to get the trade request ie lobb last year but once a decision is made it’s usually final.

Fremantle have nothing to gain by strong arming kelly if he requested west coast can’t force Geelong into a to good to be true trade
You have to consider though that Tim won't want to risk the draft. He'll want to make sure that a trade has a reasonable chance of going smoothly before he nominates a club. West Coast will want to make assurances they can do the deal before he commits. They won't have to 'outbid' Freo, but the difference in value would have to be smaller than the cost to the cats of kicking up a stink and trying to get Freo in.
 

foxdog50

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For the eagles, Maybe their 1st pick and a player.

For Freo pick 5 or 6 whatever it ends up plus a later pick maybe. Though if talks break down with WCE, prob just 5 or 6
IV said it before. I think and this is only my opinion... I think 2 X 1st round picks should do the job with WC which they be late teens.
And maybe Freo 1st pick which could be top 6 and something else may do it...
I hope he stays be I think his 80% gone....
 

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Kind of goes both ways though, are WC all talk to try and lure Kelly home for much of 2018 but then actually fail to get the deal done. You can act like they are the good guys just trying to get TK home to his family but we all know if TK had an average year last year then they would have had no interest in trying to poach him last year.
& Ms Kelly ... she & the lids are the real world, try as you may to make it the Eagles at work, nor is it a failure by GFC.
Geelong extended Jordan Clark in April 2019, you'd be a screw loose to think they didnt talk to Kelly in the first month of the 2018 season, Clark signed, Kelly .... are you suggesting they didnt, that your club failed, dont think so, the Cats are pro's.
 
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Kwality

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IV said it before. I think and this is only my opinion... I think 2 X 1st round picks should do the job with WC which they be late teens.
And maybe Freo 1st pick which could be top 6 and something else may do it...
I hope he stays be I think his 80% gone....
Hope you are right.
 

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AsterixTheGaul

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Brander has to be included in any deal. Geelong fans being very patient with Eagle supporters.
It seems like Freo supporters are like their list managers. They do not value or want quality KPP on their list as much as Eagles do.

Read this and thought it rather random comment from left field.

Brander is highly rates at West Coast and we have a track record of properly developing our tall talent. Now if Geelong really rate him and place a high value in a player under contract, then I would consider a straight swap.
 

Kwality

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Kelly is top shelf, a couple of picks for kids that will make their mark in the mid 20s does nothing for the hole in their midfield that Kelly will leave.
Brander is seen as talent & 2020 will be his 3rd season. He is seen to be the only likely lad on the Eagles list, plus he went to school down there.

I'd prefer to keep Brander but I want a deal done if at all possible, at least one of Kelly or Coniglio.

Not critical of our stance last year, Brander could have been an Oscar Allen in 2019, its Kelly who has stepped up, we need to meet Geelong offering something they want.
 
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Kwality

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What do you think is a fair deal ? ( I just like to hear from other's in what they think )
I think a player & appropriate pick(s). Much as I might prefer to keep Brander I'd sacrifice him IF it got it done.
I say Brander because he was an early pick, a NSW boy who went to school in Geelong, played for the Falcons.
Venables would be a midfielder in play, but he's not played since being concussed (in May) - if he wanted to go home, I'd like to see us get it done, in a deal for Kelly no matter.

Last year I was against breaking up the premiership squad & it did not get the job done. This year, assuming Kelly goes home, I'd like to think we can snag either Kelly or Coniglio, even both, paying for an agreed deal.
 

foxdog50

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I think a player & appropriate pick(s). Much as I might prefer to keep Brander I'd sacrifice him IF it got it done.
I say Brander because he was an early pick, a NSW boy who went to school in Geelong, played for the Falcons.
Venables would be a midfielder in play, but he's not played since being concussed (in May) - if he wanted to go home, I'd like to see us get it done, in a deal for Kelly no matter.

Last year I was against breaking up the premiership squad & it did not get the job done. This year, assuming Kelly goes home, I'd like to think we can snag either Kelly or Coniglio, even both, paying for an agreed deal.
Fair enough, I like your views, people are saying Brander, but tbh I don't know 1 thing about him as he hasn't been consistent player for you guys. But Key Forwards do take a while, but can he "the player" some of your supporters say he can be. Where his Stats in the WAFL haven't been much to look at..
 

Kwality

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Fair enough, I like your views, people are saying Brander, but tbh I don't know 1 thing about him as he hasn't been consistent player for you guys. But Key Forwards do take a while, but can he "the player" some of your supporters say he can be. Where his Stats in the WAFL haven't been much to look at..
Yep on all counts, I mark him down because Simmo hasnt given him consecutive games as he has a few others over the last two seasons. Appears its his early draft pick that backs the interest, maybe Stephen Wells has had his eye on him for a while. He's played everywhere in the WAFL, like to think there is a plan.

Was it Stanley that went to the Cats based on his junior career across half back?
 

foxdog50

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Yep on all counts, I mark him down because Simmo hasnt given him consecutive games as he has a few others over the last two seasons. Appears its his early draft pick that backs the interest, maybe Stephen Wells has had his eye on him for a while. He's played everywhere in the WAFL, like to think there is a plan.

Was it Stanley that went to the Cats based on his junior career across half back?
I'm not to sure on Stanley as he was from Saints before hand... Who knows what will happen, only time will tell I suppose
 

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AsterixTheGaul

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So I am thinking that Dylan Shiel and Adam Treloar are pretty decent recent benchmarks to work out what Tim's trade valuation.

Exactly what the future pick is worth is unknown so I have made some assessments I believe fair.

TRELOAR
727816


727818


I have taken an assumption that a fair valuation of Collingwood's 2016 1st rounder would be around pick 12

SHIEL
727822


727819


I have taken an assumption that a fair valuation of GWS's 2019 second rounder would be around pick 32 and Essendon's 2019 first rounder would be around pick 12.


KELLY
So if West Coast were to give up the 2019 1st and the Sydney 2nd they hold, that would be pretty close.
727824



Payment price for all three Shiel, Treloar and Kelly included 2 first rounders.

Collingwood and Essendon had slightly better first round picks so got a second round back.

Alternatively, Geelong can take the pick 22 plus the Eagles future 1st and hope that the Eagles slide down a bit in 2020.
 

Pure_Ownage

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So I am thinking that Dylan Shiel and Adam Treloar are pretty decent recent benchmarks to work out what Tim's trade valuation.

Exactly what the future pick is worth is unknown so I have made some assessments I believe fair.

TRELOAR
View attachment 727816

View attachment 727818

I have taken an assumption that a fair valuation of Collingwood's 2016 1st rounder would be around pick 12

SHIEL
View attachment 727822

View attachment 727819

I have taken an assumption that a fair valuation of GWS's 2019 second rounder would be around pick 32 and Essendon's 2019 first rounder would be around pick 12.


KELLY
So if West Coast were to give up the 2019 1st and the Sydney 2nd they hold, that would be pretty close.
View attachment 727824


Payment price for all three Shiel, Treloar and Kelly included 2 first rounders.

Collingwood and Essendon had slightly better first round picks so got a second round back.

Alternatively, Geelong can take the pick 22 plus the Eagles future 1st and hope that the Eagles slide down a bit in 2020.
Those picks you are talking about will get pushed down the order by FA compo picks though which Coll pick 7 didnt.

Also you need to compare the quality of each draft to each other as they are not all equal.

Generally i get where you are coming from though.
 

CatToTheFuture

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So I am thinking that Dylan Shiel and Adam Treloar are pretty decent recent benchmarks to work out what Tim's trade valuation.

Exactly what the future pick is worth is unknown so I have made some assessments I believe fair.

TRELOAR
View attachment 727816

View attachment 727818

I have taken an assumption that a fair valuation of Collingwood's 2016 1st rounder would be around pick 12

SHIEL
View attachment 727822

View attachment 727819

I have taken an assumption that a fair valuation of GWS's 2019 second rounder would be around pick 32 and Essendon's 2019 first rounder would be around pick 12.


KELLY
So if West Coast were to give up the 2019 1st and the Sydney 2nd they hold, that would be pretty close.
View attachment 727824


Payment price for all three Shiel, Treloar and Kelly included 2 first rounders.

Collingwood and Essendon had slightly better first round picks so got a second round back.

Alternatively, Geelong can take the pick 22 plus the Eagles future 1st and hope that the Eagles slide down a bit in 2020.
Not sure where your calculator is coming from, where'd you get it?

The picks need to be compared in the context of the draft and also their tradability. For that reason I'd say they value the future 1st a lot higher than this year's 22 even if they expect you to win the premiership that year
 
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