Recommitted Tim Kelly [requested a trade to West Coast]

[Miguel Sanchez]

Well there'll be more than a fair few in that thread who will be in complete shock if Tim rocks up for pre-season training at Geelong rather than sit out a year and play WAFL football before walking to the WCE for free at years end. It was a seemingly perfect plan, where did it all go wrong?

Again, if there's "more than a fair few" then surely you can point me to them?

I found one poster who asked if it was a possibility and was told it wasn't. No one who's actually going to be in complete shock that it hasn't happened. You're arguing against people that don't actually exist.

 

[Scotland]

Not really. You just overate draft picks. A pick 8,9,10 is more likely to be a worse player then kelly currently is. Go look at the list.

Adam Cerra, Will Setterfield, Darcy Parish, Jordan De Goey, Kade Kolodjashnij.

Those are the #5 picks from the last 5 years. I assume you would rather have Kelly than all of those bar De Doey, and given you go for Geelong probably even think Kelly > De Goey too.

Why not just say that Kelly is worth pick 5 because those guys (the oldest of whom is still younger than Kelly) haven't finished 2nd in the B&F yet? No club will trade pick 5 for Kelly, but the logic holds based on a 1 in 5 hit rate the last 5 years.

No draft pick is a guarantee of anything. Carlton had pick 1 and took Jacob Weitering. I wouldn't trade him for McGovern, Barrass or Sheppard but I can guarantee if I suggested trading Barrass or Sheppard (probably even McGovern) for pick 1 people would laugh at me. Ditto St Kilda with McCartin and trading Darling or Kennedy. Darling is 26, what's the next 5 or 6 years of his career worth to you?

Clubs collectively overrate draft picks to a relative consensus. If you want to extract a top 5 or 10 pick from a club you need to put something seriously good on the table. Dayne Beams at 24, Dangerfield at 25, first/second round picks coming back the other way. Tim Kelly is not at that level, hence most sensible people see him as a 10-20 proposition.

 

[Seeds]

Adam Cerra, Will Setterfield, Darcy Parish, Jordan De Goey, Kade Kolodjashnij.

Those are the #5 picks from the last 5 years. I assume you would rather have Kelly than all of those bar De Doey, and given you go for Geelong probably even think Kelly > De Goey too.

Why not just say that Kelly is worth pick 5 because those guys (the oldest of whom is still younger than Kelly) haven't finished 2nd in the B&F yet? No club will trade pick 5 for Kelly, but the logic holds based on a 1 in 5 hit rate the last 5 years.

No draft pick is a guarantee of anything. Carlton had pick 1 and took Jacob Weitering. I wouldn't trade him for McGovern, Barrass or Sheppard but I can guarantee if I suggested trading Barrass or Sheppard (probably even McGovern) for pick 1 people would laugh at me. Ditto St Kilda with McCartin and trading Darling or Kennedy. Darling is 26, what's the next 5 or 6 years of his career worth to you?

Clubs collectively overrate draft picks to a relative consensus. If you want to extract a top 5 or 10 pick from a club you need to put something seriously good on the table. Dayne Beams at 24, Dangerfield at 25, first/second round picks coming back the other way. Tim Kelly is not at that level, hence most sensible people see him as a 10-20 proposition.

You are comparing him to kids to young to evaluate. Do the 10 years previous draft picks and do 8,9,10 to get a decent sample size. And yes draft picks are no guarantee. Kelly is a guarantee. Thats one reason why he is worth a high draft pick. Your last paragraph basically agrees with my point. Clubs overrate draft picks. Once you realise this you realise ready made players are worth more in draft picks then you thought previously.

 

[JackOutback]

You are comparing him to kids to young to evaluate. Do the 10 years previous draft picks and do 8,9,10 to get a decent sample size. And yes draft picks are no guarantee. Kelly is a guarantee. Thats one reason why he is worth a high draft pick. Your last paragraph basically agrees with my point. Clubs overrate draft picks. Once you realise this you realise ready made players are worth more in draft picks then you thought previously.

Kelly is not a guarantee; the term second-year blues exists for a reason. Kelly's year is very comparable to Michael Barlow's debut year, who went on to have a solid career. Was he, at any point, worth a top 10 draft pick?

 

[Scotland]

You are comparing him to kids to young to evaluate. Do the 10 years previous draft picks and do 8,9,10 to get a decent sample size. And yes draft picks are no guarantee. Kelly is a guarantee. Thats one reason why he is worth a high draft pick. Your last paragraph basically agrees with my point. Clubs overrate draft picks. Once you realise this you realise ready made players are worth more in draft picks then you thought previously.

You just don't get it.

Clubs overrate draft picks. Clubs do trades. What you think is irrelevant, what I think is irrelevant.

If you would rather have pick 5 in the 2019 draft than Tim Kelly that's your prerogative, but no club is going to trade Geelong pick 5 for him.

I don't know why 8, 9, 10 are the magic numbers but Jack Ziebell, Phil Davis, Dyson Heppell, Dion Prestia, Nick Vlasutin, Joe Daniher*, Peter Wright, Sam Weidemann were picked in this range. Plenty of good players have gone after pick 10 too. Clubs with with top 10 picks think they are going to draft stars with them even if they regularly don't. You can guarantee that if Geelong actually got their magical pick 10 for Kelly this year they wouldn't have then shopped it around for a good player on the assumption they probably couldn't do better at the draft.

Every year people argue that clubs shouldn't overrate draft picks but they still do. That isn't changing any time soon.

 

[Obeanie1]

Yeah we both know that has simply never been true.

Well we both know you have struggled to maintain the same account over the years.

 

[Nickoo]

Geelong knowing the situation with Autism and newborn twins... should have done the right thing and traded him.

Shows a complete lack of understanding and empathy for the disability, the twins and the family imo.

We tried but west coast refused to do anything. Never tried a deal and even then we backed down and indicated we’d take a future first round and still the weagles refused. Freo offered a good deal which we’d have taken but he wouldn’t go there. So hamstrung.


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[Nickoo]

No. In fairness though, GAJ wasn't facing the same situation though was he. Do you know anything about Autism and how hard it would be having newborn twins on top of that?

Victoria is best place in the country for autism treatment. He didn’t want to go to freo so he wasn’t as keen to go home as he should have been if that was a priority as you indicate.

GAJ’s sister had suicidal ideation. Who knows if those assholes at the Suns had let him go a year earlier......


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[Nickoo]

Dangerfield could have played for any Melbourne Club.

Free agent was Danger. Chose to ensure he got to the Cats and that Adel were compensated. Lives an hour 45 from melb. A bit difficult as melb is not home.


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[STPer18]

Again, if there's "more than a fair few" then surely you can point me to them?

I found one poster who asked if it was a possibility and was told it wasn't. No one who's actually going to be in complete shock that it hasn't happened. You're arguing against people that don't actually exist.

If Kelly rocks up to preseason training with Geelong and not a WAFL club let's just say a fair few are going to be completely gobsmacked. He could just stay home and play WAFL for a year and then walk to the WCE for free after all.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

If Kelly rocks up to preseason training with Geelong and not a WAFL club let's just say a fair few are going to be completely gobsmacked. He could just stay home and play WAFL for a year and then walk to the WCE for free after all.

Little tip that’ll come in handy in a few years when your teachers start setting you exams: if you’re asked for examples and you just restate your position, you’re not gonna get a great mark.

 

[STPer18]

Little tip that’ll come in handy in a few years when your teachers start setting you exams: if you’re asked for examples and you just restate your position, you’re not gonna get a great mark.

Are you suggesting there won't be a few WCE posters who will be more than a little shocked that Tim hasn't elected to crack the sads and spend a year playing WAFL before walking to the WCE for free? Surely not.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Are you suggesting there won't be a few WCE posters who will be more than a little shocked that Tim hasn't elected to crack the sads and spend a year playing WAFL before walking to the WCE for free? Surely not.

That is exactly what I'm suggesting. Because no one thought that was the case. As I've said repeatedly.

Give me one example of someone who thought otherwise. Just one. One single little example.

 

[STPer18]

That is exactly what I'm suggesting. Because no one thought that was the case. As I've said repeatedly.

Give me one example of someone who thought otherwise. Just one. One single little example.

These came up from a quick two minute search. There's plenty more, you can find the rest.

Not if he says that he would sit out a year if need be. WCE find some good work for him for a year and after that, he is ours. No club will touch him after that effort.

Heard this and thought "what the hell can he do about it"
If Kelly wants to return to WA at seasons end then Geelong can get what they can for him then of let him sit out a year, still pay him and get squat for him!

Sits out for mental health reasons on full pay?

West Coast only need to offer him three to four years and he will sit out next season at home with his kids waiting until he gets traded for a token pick knowing his AFL career is not going to suffer.

If he really wanted to he could just sit out of AFL for a year and play WAFL, isn't that what McCarthy did?

Short memory. Cam Mcarthy. Trained for 12 months (not with Freo) before joining Freo

No trade goes to the draft. WA club or sits out. He will get home then.

After the crap Geelong fans have put him and his family (and no doubt the more s**t that would come his way in the next year) I doubt he feels like he owes Geelong anything.

You would get nothing then.

Happy for him to sit out a year if Geelong is going to pull a GWS

If he is desperate he can just move back like McCarthy.

As someone posted he could sit out and all of a sudden find a nice paying job no way linked to the Eagles and then get traded for a late 2nd or enter the psd.

All depends how desperate he and his wife feel. How unwelcome Geelong makes his wife feel. Which from reports is already occurrng

He could also go home for family reasons whilst still getting paid by geelong

 

[Nickoo]

I like the response and think you are spot on. This sort of honesty would have been refreshing and I wish Wells had been up front on it all.

There are too many who are playing the "we tried to be compassionate card but Tim only wanted 1 club".

I expect there is a strong reason why Tim did not want to go to Freo. It may come out but the fact of the matter is he followed normal protocol and nominated his club. Dangerfield could have nominated Bulldogs and had a very easy commute to training 3 or 4 times a week in non peak hour.

Or not. He’s not a free agent. He specifically said no to freo which was also indicated by his manager repeatedly. Manager is bit of a babe in the woods as he believed West Coast sentiment all year which was not backed up by action.


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[Nickoo]

Martin kicked 31.
Danger kicked 24.

And it's Hawkins and daylight in the Geelong forward line. You best hope Kelly is kicking some goals. Hell, aren't you even delisting your 2nd highest goal kicker this season?

Says it all really.

Says nothing actually.


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[Miguel Sanchez]

These came up from a quick two minute search. There's plenty more, you can find the rest.

There we go, that only took me six tries to get you to do that.

Conveniently you haven't linked to any of them, are they all Eagles fans? How many are from the Bay? How many have actually said they expect him to pull a McCarthy, as opposed to just raising it as a possibility?

 

[Nickoo]

Already robbed the poor bloke of a premiership, where's the heart geelong?

Weagles had earlier picks and didn’t pick him. Not sure you’re the full quid.


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[STPer18]

There we go, that only took me six tries to get you to do that.

Conveniently you haven't linked to any of them, are they all Eagles fans? How many are from the Bay? How many have actually said they expect him to pull a McCarthy, as opposed to just raising it as a possibility?

Every single one of them are from the thread I linked earlier, hard to believe that sort of posting was occurring on the main board by the hyper intelligent WCE supporter base, isn't it? Imagine their surprise if Kelly decides to not sit out the year in the WAFL and suit up for Geelong in 2019.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/tim-kelly-exploring-trade-options-home-to-west-coast.1193932/

 

[Nickoo]

I have two inputs on why Tim has not been public on why not Freo. Firstly in a discussion with Ross the Toss, Ross was rather derogatory to Tim. Secondly there was an incident with Tim’s partner and ons of the Hill boys. Don’t know the specifics or truth behind it but you shouldn’t have to explain all to the public.

Do you really think Wells would have let Tim go to West Coast with pick 11 that is likely to be pick 13? He was always going to play hard nosed.

What’s the go with the Dark knight? There was an article yesterday in the hun about a recruiter at the saints and basically Ross is a very difficult person to work with.


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[Miguel Sanchez]

Every single one of them are from the thread I linked earlier, hard to believe that sort of posting was occurring on the main board by the hyper intelligent WCE supporter base, isn't it? Imagine their surprise if Kelly decides to not sit out the year in the WAFL and suit up for Geelong in 2019.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/tim-kelly-exploring-trade-options-home-to-west-coast.1193932/

Struggled to find the first one, finally realised it's because that poster is such a nuffie I've got him on ignore.

I wonder how many others are his? They should be discounted, he's our board's version of ... well, you I guess.

 

[Nickoo]

So what is there to stop Tim playing out the year and moving back to Perth in August when the Season for the Cats is over? I am assuming he will not extend.

West Coast will most likely have a similar deal for him say 4 x $500 to $600k.

Stipulates that he will enter the PSD as an out of contract player and that he will only live in Perth.

Any club outside PERTH who selects him would be liable to pay the salary and he would not be obliged to move. That club would be seen as barbaric and I expect the AFLPA step in.

Alternatively Freo try to play smart and Tim publicly says he will only play for Freo if Ross is removed.

Come PSD and Tim becomes an Eagle and Geelong go away empty handed

The scenario is a bit extreme but Wells got on his high haunches so why not fight fire with fire!

Wells didn’t get on his high haunches!


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[Nickoo]

Um, Redden just came second in the Eagles B&F (the premiers, no less) and had just two less Brownlow votes than Kelly this year. He has also actually performed over more than one season. The myth, the legend of Tim Kelly seems to grow daily from Geelong fans. They think he’s the second coming of Leigh Matthews.

Not at all. His value was relative to trade. Most cats fans see his foibles.


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[Nickoo]

It is for some people - anyway think the support she wants around her is her extended family which Geelong can't do anything about!

She was living at home with her parents so no baring her parents move.


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[Nickoo]

In what world is he 'going to cost a lot more'

Geelong to accept a trade this year wanted 20,22 and west coasts 2019 first rounder. Or in real terms 2 first round picks and the second highest value second round pick available. Why don't you ask for the sun next year.

We only backed down coz we’re the good guys. Weagles couldn’t give a rats ass and acted accordingly by doing absolutely nothing.


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