Uncontracted Tim Kelly

AsterixTheGaul

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I am struggling to agree on 2019 being a rubbish crop of draftees. How I see this draft unfolding is that there is not the top 4 to 6 great prospects any teasing KPF. From my assessment, Rowell and Anderson are good but more like a pick at the 5 to 12 level in most years. However, that does not make it a poor draft. It is also quite clear of many NGA or F/S prospects.

What a number of talent watchers have echoed is that the crop from the 10 to 30 level is very even with little separating them. There is also a good selection at the 30 to 45 range. In terms of first two rounds, it has an abundance of mids and flankers but is light on KPP. When people see lack of KPP in the top 20, it often gets called a poor draft. If that is what you need, then so be it. But it is not a blanket statement.

So in valuing Kelly, I see West Coast has a very good crop of developing KPP and an abundance of small fast forwards. Kelly would probably displace Masten from the midfield and it makes us better. The starting 6 best midfield would be Yeo, Shuey, Gaff, Kelly, Redden and Sheed. What is missing for me is a stronger depth underneath the starting 6 and in trading for Kelly, that delays us another 12 months in addressing.

For me, we can go to the draft and re-stock our midfield with 2 or 3 good prospects or get Kelly. Obviously there is less risk in Kelly and he is plug in ready to go. Two good options. Kelly want arrive for a steal and we should not pay an arm and a leg for him.
 

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eagles rule

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Last year Freo (loosely) traded Neale and pick 6 and ended up with Hogan, Lobb and pick 17. Pretty sure WC spoke with Lobb, not sure about Hogan. Lobb wanted to spend more time forward (didn't end up happening with injuries) and more money so chose Freo. There's not much to be gained by WC trying to get in the way at that point. Hogan I doubt we could afford or find the trade currency for, plus we have Darling 27 and three young forwards 20, 20 and 21 coming through so we don't need a 24 year old key forward. Also makes no sense with these moves in the pipeline for Freo to be chasing after a player who doesn't want to go there and potentially jeopardising trades for players that do.

Make no mistake WC and Freo target many of the same players, but once a player chooses a club the non-selected club doesn't behave like a BigFooty fan.
This respect between the clubs also involves not poaching each other’s players ..


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Scotland

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This respect between the clubs also involves not poaching each other’s players ..
I don't buy the 'respect' line so much. WC worry about WC, Freo worry about Freo. If there's some kid in the draft we are really keen on and Freo rate him as worthy of pick 6 they'll pick him up, but they're not going to pick him out of spite so he's no there at 14.

If there was a gettable Freo player that wanted to join WC I think we'd look at him.
 

eagles rule

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I don't buy the 'respect' line so much. WC worry about WC, Freo worry about Freo. If there's some kid in the draft we are really keen on and Freo rate him as worthy of pick 6 they'll pick him up, but they're not going to pick him out of spite so he's no there at 14.

If there was a gettable Freo player that wanted to join WC I think we'd look at him.
Wanting to join is different to being poached /targeted ..


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TheBrownDog
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Wanting to join is different to being poached /targeted ..

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Not really.

This is the Tim Kelly thread after all. I highly doubt that after Geelong took him at pick 24 that a few rounds into the 2018 season Brady Rawlings got a knock on the door saying 'I have a Tom Kelly on the line wanting to speak with you, hold on a sec, sorry I have a Tim Kelly on the line'. WC were speaking to Kelly pre draft planning to take him in the 20s or 30s and would've stayed in contact with his manager since.

There's a whole world of player movement discussion going on behind closed doors, it's like an iceberg. We see 10% of it in the public sphere but the player agents, club reps etc. deal with the other 90% under the surface. Player managers look after players across multiple clubs and it's their job to make sure that the clubs know the score. Did Brisbane target Lachie Neale? Did Lachie Neale target Brisbane? More than likely Brisbane spoke to his manager among others looking to see which established stars were gettable, and Neale's manager would have told them that Neale will possibly go there for $x and Freo will probably want XYZ to release him from his deal.
 

HurleyHepsHird

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Tim Kelly advice to Marion Pickett , AFL is easier to play at then the WAFL ....better players around you .

This is a bit of a red flag for Freo and West Coast ...Kelly has Dangerfield , Duncan , Selwood , Ablett playing alongside him which has helped a lot . Collingwood are another team with a deep midfield , WCE we lack depth as do Freo . Kelly will help his workload will be greater though , reason why Freo or WCE won't overpay .
I actually think Kelly's workload would lessen a little as WC have a different approach to midfield rotations than Geelong.
 

HurleyHepsHird

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Not really.

This is the Tim Kelly thread after all. I highly doubt that after Geelong took him at pick 24 that a few rounds into the 2018 season Brady Rawlings got a knock on the door saying 'I have a Tom Kelly on the line wanting to speak with you, hold on a sec, sorry I have a Tim Kelly on the line'. WC were speaking to Kelly pre draft planning to take him in the 20s or 30s and would've stayed in contact with his manager since.

There's a whole world of player movement discussion going on behind closed doors, it's like an iceberg. We see 10% of it in the public sphere but the player agents, club reps etc. deal with the other 90% under the surface. Player managers look after players across multiple clubs and it's their job to make sure that the clubs know the score. Did Brisbane target Lachie Neale? Did Lachie Neale target Brisbane? More than likely Brisbane spoke to his manager among others looking to see which established stars were gettable, and Neale's manager would have told them that Neale will possibly go there for $x and Freo will probably want XYZ to release him from his deal.
WC literally gained extra picks to target Kelly and Ryan.

They just didn't plan for clubs to be dumb enough to pass on Oscar Allen, or for Geelong to roll the dice and undercut them on Kelly.
 

Wedgetailed Westerner

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Report: Jack Martin decides on club of choice
Wait for all the supporters of the other Victorian clubs to whinge about this one ay. (Oh thats right, it will never happen.
Maybe Gold Coast should send Jack to the club that will give them the best deal.
This along with countless other examples of Victorian players returning home are proof that alot of Victorian club supportes are hypocrites and can't handle when it happens the other way.
Don't start again on if TK really wanted to go home he would have accepted Freo. That is a load of crap and you all know it!!!! Until Players aren't given the right to choose who they play for, which in my opinion will never happen, Vic clubs and supporters are going to have to accept that it is a part of doing business in the AFL.
 

Wedgetailed Westerner

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Unless GWS can trade down to a top 4 pick they will need their two 1sts to land Green. That will take two 1sts out and the residual would move their 2nd 1st into the mid 2nd round there abouts.

Freo also has a top 10 academy pick that will burn up picks likely traded in.

The AFL has closed the loop hole in pick trading the Swans used last year.

So it is not certain later 1st rounders will be pushed out, they may even improve.
I'm preety sure you get a 25% discount for academy players so they would only need one 1st
 

sherrif

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If Yeo was equal to Kelly in class that is slightly unders which has been conceeded. Ever team would want 'a bit more'at the trade table for class players.

But Yeo is a dual AA, a dual B&F, one of those being in a premiership year and is one of the few mids in the comp who can run both ways and has the size and power beat the likes of Martin and Dangerfield 1 on 1. Kelly is not.
Did you even watch Kelly last season? He is ahead of Yeo and Shuey in the Brownlow odds for a reason. He won games for Geelong last season and that is his strength with his ability to run both ways, win contested ball and break away from congestion. Yeo's never been a Brownlow favourite. Kelly was late in the season. Kelly's best was was outstanding in 2019. Complain about his kicking all you want, When his kicking was on he was dynamic. Kellys more of a match winner than Yeo already and Yeo also rarely gets tagged.Kelly was tagged most games after round 6 or so.
 

Wedgetailed Westerner

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For starters it's not a secret that he has kids with special needs. You stating they have something they don't makes you look like a moron, which reading your response is extremely clear to be true.

I have two kids with autism so come again at me dickhead.
Pants I had no idea two of your kids have Autism. I understand that this TK situation would be really close to home forya then.
 

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sherrif

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Unless GWS can trade down to a top 4 pick they will need their two 1sts to land Green. That will take two 1sts out and the residual would move their 2nd 1st into the mid 2nd round there abouts.

Freo also has a top 10 academy pick that will burn up picks likely traded in.

The AFL has closed the loop hole in pick trading the Swans used last year.

So it is not certain later 1st rounders will be pushed out, they may even improve.
Not quite. Most experts now dont have Green in the top 4, but 5-8.
FRom afl.com.au
'If a rival club was to bid for Green at No.5, based on current ladder positions the Giants would have to use picks 10 (which they received from Essendon as part of the Dylan Shiel deal) and 14. The leftover points from the latter pick would see them slide down to 17.'
Second pick slides a bit, but not to mid second round.

Carter's (the dockers academy player) unlikely to go top 15 according to the most recent phantom drafts.


https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/sydney-teens-catching-eye-of-afl-recruiters-20190704-p5246g.html
 

pantskyle

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Pants I had no idea two of your kids have Autism. I understand that this TK situation would be really close to home forya then.
Honestly it's a non-issue for mine. I'm sure all parties involved will do what needs to be done. Its easy to paint parties as the bad guys I suppose.

Tim will do what he believes what is right for his family.
 

Scotland

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Did you even watch Kelly last season? He is ahead of Yeo and Shuey in the Brownlow odds for a reason. He won games for Geelong last season and that is his strength with his ability to run both ways, win contested ball and break away from congestion. Yeo's never been a Brownlow favourite. Kelly was late in the season. Kelly's best was was outstanding in 2019. Complain about his kicking all you want, When his kicking was on he was dynamic. Kellys more of a match winner than Yeo already and Yeo also rarely gets tagged. Kelly was tagged most games after round 6 or so.
Geelong won most games comfortably this year. In their 6 losses Kelly polled two coaches votes vs Freo in Rd 20. Kelly has been very good but averages 27.5 disposals in wins and 19.5 in losses, 6.8 clearances in wins vs 4.5. Where was he when GWS won by 4 points at KP? Where was he when Brisbane won by a point at the Gabba? Where was he when Geelong needed a spark against Port Adelaide at AO? When Geelong need someone to drag them back into a contest they look to Dangerfield, not Kelly.

You can take this as knocking Kelly if you want but the reality is he's not the explosive 200 game star that Dangerfield is. No shame in that, not many players are. Even fewer after two seasons. WC are the same. When the going gets tough, the tough call on Yeo or Shuey. Or both. We don't put Gaff on the ball because he gets the most Brownlow votes.

WC haven't had as consistent season as Geelong. Seven wins under 20 points compared to Geelong one. When we needed a lift against Hawthorn in the wet Shuey exploded in the last. BOG, 10 coaches votes. When we were down against Adelaide at AO it was Shuey 10, Yeo 8. Down against Melbourne Rd 9, Yeo 9 votes. Richmond Rd 22, Yeo 5 votes. Narrow win over Adelaide at home, Shuey 9, Yeo 5. As for running both ways you are talking about 161 (Yeo) and 123 tacklers in a team that doesn't tackle. Kelly has 92. Does Kelly run head to head with Cripps and Fyfe? No. Yeo and Shuey have shared the last 3 B&Fs and Shuey won the Norm Smith last year. Yeo polled 15 Brownlow votes which is more than Kelly. Kelly will probably poll more in two weeks time, but if his team isn't in the GF by then they will be very disappointed.

If you think Kelly is ahead of Yeo and Shuey then you either don't watch WC games, don't watch Geelong games or don't get footy.
 

sherrif

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Eagles fans think the exact same. :thumbsu:

We must be all morons who have no idea hey?

Not often Freo and Eagles fans agree on something.
FReo fans dont think even close to the same. Im one.
Geelong won most games comfortably this year. In their 6 losses Kelly polled two coaches votes vs Freo in Rd 20. Kelly has been very good but averages 27.5 disposals in wins and 19.5 in losses, 6.8 clearances in wins vs 4.5. Where was he when GWS won by 4 points at KP? Where was he when Brisbane won by a point at the Gabba? Where was he when Geelong needed a spark against Port Adelaide at AO? When Geelong need someone to drag them back into a contest they look to Dangerfield, not Kelly.

You can take this as knocking Kelly if you want but the reality is he's not the explosive 200 game star that Dangerfield is. No shame in that, not many players are. Even fewer after two seasons. WC are the same. When the going gets tough, the tough call on Yeo or Shuey. Or both. We don't put Gaff on the ball because he gets the most Brownlow votes.

WC haven't had as consistent season as Geelong. Seven wins under 20 points compared to Geelong one. When we needed a lift against Hawthorn in the wet Shuey exploded in the last. BOG, 10 coaches votes. When we were down against Adelaide at AO it was Shuey 10, Yeo 8. Down against Melbourne Rd 9, Yeo 9 votes. Richmond Rd 22, Yeo 5 votes. Narrow win over Adelaide at home, Shuey 9, Yeo 5. As for running both ways you are talking about 161 (Yeo) and 123 tacklers in a team that doesn't tackle. Kelly has 92. Does Kelly run head to head with Cripps and Fyfe? No. Yeo and Shuey have shared the last 3 B&Fs and Shuey won the Norm Smith last year. Yeo polled 15 Brownlow votes which is more than Kelly. Kelly will probably poll more in two weeks time, but if his team isn't in the GF by then they will be very disappointed.

If you think Kelly is ahead of Yeo and Shuey then you either don't watch WC games, don't watch Geelong games or don't get footy.
Thanks for taking the time to prove my point. I said Kelly was more of a match winner than Yeo. That exactly what your stats just proved. When he is good he is dynamic. That exactly what ive said all along.
 
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Scotland

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FFS. Thanks for taking the time to prove my point. I said Kelly was more of a match winner than Yeo. That exactly what your stats just proved. When he is good he is dynamic. That exactly what ive said all along. Is any danger of a WEst Coast supporter actually making a point that makes sense?
In your world Kelly is a match winner because Geelong win matches, right?
 

CatToTheFuture

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They say that every year. Means next to nothing this far out.
The only real objective measure I can see is how many of the underagers represented in the current year at state level. Now consider the following:

"The under-18 championships are generally a good pointer for the following year's draft class, and since 2011, every under-18 All Australian team has had a bottom-ager picked a year before they were eligible for the draft. There were none in this year's team."

Based on that it looks like 2020 is worse, and then take into account that there's way more academy kids in that draft. Of the 48 u17 all stars selected for the GF curtain raiser 17 are academy or FS. Purely on weight of numbers and an assumed uniform probability distribution that means a pick 14-18 will end up 18-24

Based on that it's hard for me to see how an expected late first in 2020 can be valued substantially higher than pick 23 this year given you have to wait a year and end up with probably pick 23 in what's likely a weaker draft anyway but maybe there's something I'm missing. The only additional value to the cats would be that it would be tradeable and would pass the media "first rounder" sniff test.
 

Obeanie1

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FReo fans dont think even close to the same. Im one.

Thanks for taking the time to prove my point. I said Kelly was more of a match winner than Yeo. That exactly what your stats just proved. When he is good he is dynamic. That exactly what ive said all along.
LOL.

Whatever you need to imagine mate!

Btw do you think Kelly could go head to head with Martin, Dangerfield or Fyfe?

And win?
 

Obeanie1

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Not quite. Most experts now dont have Green in the top 4, but 5-8.
FRom afl.com.au
'If a rival club was to bid for Green at No.5, based on current ladder positions the Giants would have to use picks 10 (which they received from Essendon as part of the Dylan Shiel deal) and 14. The leftover points from the latter pick would see them slide down to 17.'
Second pick slides a bit, but not to mid second round.

Carter's (the dockers academy player) unlikely to go top 15 according to the most recent phantom drafts.


https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/sydney-teens-catching-eye-of-afl-recruiters-20190704-p5246g.html
Greene being bid on between 5-8 is great for the other teams. It means GWS will lose 11 and the balance of the points deducted off their next pick say 14. That will shuffle 14 into the 2nd round and picks after 14 drop down one spot.

Thats if they dont shuffle picks around. They may look to trade 11 for two 2nd rounders.

Really hard to predict what will happen tbh.
 

sherrif

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LOL.

Whatever you need to imagine mate!

Btw do you think Kelly could go head to head with Martin, Dangerfield or Fyfe?

And win?
The old LOL argument, geez you must be right. So let me get this right your point is that Kelly is not as good as three of the best players in the comp. Thanks genius. I agree he's not as good as Dangerfield, Fyfe and Martin. Doent mean he's not a good player with way more trade value than clueless west cost supporters keep stating.
 

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