Uncontracted Tim Kelly

Rich01

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No one is going to listen to the thoughts of a richmond supporter on geelong. Pointless you posting. No one is going to trade a gun 25 year old for only pick 16-20.. It just wont happen. Geelong rejected two pick 19-22s last year. Freo offered pick 12 last year. Might of got the deal done them but wont now. Kelly cant get to the eagles through the draft.
Thanks for your response. You seem to be triggered by Richmond supporters.

Kelly will find a way back home to WA and a deal will get done. I’d be surprised if the Cats get any more than what was offered this year, but they have lost significant leverage with him being OOC.

Hopefully for them he will deliver a flag for the Cats before he goes.
 

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Peel67skin

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Thanks for your response. You seem to be triggered by Richmond supporters.

Kelly will find a way back home to WA and a deal will get done. I’d be surprised if the Cats get any more than what was offered this year, but they have lost significant leverage with him being OOC.

Hopefully for them he will deliver a flag for the Cats before he goes.
Don't be too sensitive when it come to forum discussions people just having their opinion.
 

Wojcinski

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Thanks for your response. You seem to be triggered by Richmond supporters.

Kelly will find a way back home to WA and a deal will get done. I’d be surprised if the Cats get any more than what was offered this year, but they have lost significant leverage with him being OOC.

Hopefully for them he will deliver a flag for the Cats before he goes.
last year two picks in the 20's was offered, he is currently second in AFLCA and leading the afl.com.au Brownlow predictor.
If he managed to win the Brownlow and receive AA selection at 24 years old, do you still think he's only worth 2 picks in the 20s?

If Richmond traded Dusty post 2017 what do you reckon he would have been worth?
 

Seeds

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Thanks for your response. You seem to be triggered by Richmond supporters.

Kelly will find a way back home to WA and a deal will get done. I’d be surprised if the Cats get any more than what was offered this year, but they have lost significant leverage with him being OOC.

Hopefully for them he will deliver a flag for the Cats before he goes.
When you suggest such ridiculous low ball offers not consistent with trades of similar players in recent history then its hard to conclude you just aint another tigers supporter triggered by geelong. Kelly choose geelong over freemantle last year. No one is going to believe he will risk the draft if he wouldnt even choose freemantle over geelong.
 
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Kelly can demand 1mill in psd if his form holds up rest of season so don't think he'd be too upset going to a team like North. He wont be at Geelong in 2020 that is for sure
I assumed that if he were to leave it would be to go back West, but youre right, if Geelong did try force his hand he could simply take maximum dollars to play at a Carlton or North. The likelihood of things breaking down to that extent would be slim, as Geelong have already made it known after last trade period how much they want him to remain a part of their club. If he does go West it will be for nothing less than a fair deal.
 

fpm84

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Kelly will find a way back home to WA and a deal will get done. I’d be surprised if the Cats get any more than what was offered this year, but they have lost significant leverage with him being OOC.
GWS and Gold Coast were fairly compensated for the OOC Shiel, Treloar and O’Meara, all of which are comparable trades.

Kelly is absolutely worth two first round picks.
 
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GWS and Gold Coast were fairly compensated for the OOC Shiel, Treloar and O’Meara, all of which are comparable trades.

Kelly is absolutely worth two first round picks.
Shiel (25) was not out of contract. Two firsts, second back.
Treloar (22) was out of contract. Two firsts, second back.
O'Meara (22) was out of contract. Traded for first plus future second. St Kilda arguably got more for pick 10 than GC did but Hawthorn gonna Hawthorn.

Tom Mitchell (23) was out of contract. Pick 14.
Patrick Dangerfield (25) was out of contract and a RFA. Picks 9 and 28 and Dean Gore.
Devon Smith (24) was out of contract. Picks 11 and future third, 25 and future second coming back.

The thing about picking and choosing is that anyone can do it. Dangerfield at 25 years old was absolutely worth two top 10 picks but he wasn't even traded for two firsts. You can't claim 'he was a free agent it's different' and then ignore any possible factor that doesn't give Kelly the highest trade value possible. That isn't how it works.
 

Seeds

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Geelong can’t hold him to his contract this year, can they?
They can give him a new contract. If geelong cant find a suitable trade with eagles they can tell kelly its us or the draft. Kelly choose us over freo last year. Dont see why he would risk going to carlton or gold coast or port adelaide in the draft if he wouldnt even choose freemantle.
 

Seeds

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Shiel (25) was not out of contract. Two firsts, second back.
Treloar (22) was out of contract. Two firsts, second back.
O'Meara (22) was out of contract. Traded for first plus future second. St Kilda arguably got more for pick 10 than GC did but Hawthorn gonna Hawthorn.

Tom Mitchell (23) was out of contract. Pick 14.
Patrick Dangerfield (25) was out of contract and a RFA. Picks 9 and 28 and Dean Gore.
Devon Smith (24) was out of contract. Picks 11 and future third, 25 and future second coming back.

The thing about picking and choosing is that anyone can do it. Dangerfield at 25 years old was absolutely worth two top 10 picks but he wasn't even traded for two firsts. You can't claim 'he was a free agent it's different' and then ignore any possible factor that doesn't give Kelly the highest trade value possible. That isn't how it works.
Not all firsts are equal. A top 5 pick is worth a lot more then pick 10 which is worth a lot more then the pick 16-20 the eagles will have. Your future first will also be considered a 16-20 pick.

Tom mitchell was only a 3-5 ranked mid in his own team when traded. Not a great comparison. Omeara was injured for 2 years with many questioning whether he would ever play again. So again not a good comparison. Danger was a Rfa so not relevant. If adelaide didnt provide a low offer geelong would of just increased his pay and got him for free picks wise. Eagles cant do that. Smith was not in the same class at trade time. Treloer or shiel is the closest in comparison although kelly may very well surpass them in trade value by the end of the year if he keeps his current form up. Also you left out beams trade oddly enough.
 
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Classic Seeds.

Just ignore any trade in history that doesn't provide a value high enough to how you rate Kelly. Echo chamber.

You know what is irrelevant?

Beams trade - won't have pick 5 (he was also contracted)
Shiel trade - probably won't have pick 9 (he was also contracted)
Treloar tade - probably won't have pick 7 (and he was 22 with 68 games under his belt)

:)
 
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They can give him a new contract. If geelong cant find a suitable trade with eagles they can tell kelly its us or the draft. Kelly choose us over freo last year. Dont see why he would risk going to carlton or gold coast or port adelaide in the draft if he wouldnt even choose freemantle.
Big difference between giving a contract and having a player IN contract. BIG!!

You really think Geelong will just give up a first rounder and a second rounder to make a point?

Common sense will prevail. People are aware of Geelong double standards. Deal will get done.
 

sr36

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I expect it will be along the lines of:

Geelong: WCE 2019 1st + WCE 2020 1st
Westcoast: Kelly
It's going to be bloody hard for him to get to WCE. If WCE finish top 4, 2 WCE first round selections would be a crap deal for the Cats. Two picks in the teens don't seem close to the mark to me.
 

new breed

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Can't see him getting to WC now unless they have a poor remainder of the season.
Well if he Kelly still wants to get to WCE then Kelly might take a lesser offer to get to WCE ...could easily happen . Satisfying Geelong wouldn't be easy and we are fair traders from what I've seen in past years , not having a go at Freo they are a little tougher in their trading history . Pity help Geelong if Kelly gets to Freo .
 
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Doesn’t happen that way anymore.
Players end up getting to their club of choice these days, particularly the good ones.
West Coast will offer up their first rounder and Geelong will eventually reluctantly accept it.
The only way thats genuinely happening is if Tim is prepared to risk going in the ND and i doubt he is and i doubt he can bluff Geelong into thinking that (especially with his amateur hour manager). Unless he can Geelong will get a lot more than that.
 
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Shiel (25) was not out of contract. Two firsts, second back.
Treloar (22) was out of contract. Two firsts, second back.
O'Meara (22) was out of contract. Traded for first plus future second. St Kilda arguably got more for pick 10 than GC did but Hawthorn gonna Hawthorn.

Tom Mitchell (23) was out of contract. Pick 14.
Patrick Dangerfield (25) was out of contract and a RFA. Picks 9 and 28 and Dean Gore.
Devon Smith (24) was out of contract. Picks 11 and future third, 25 and future second coming back.

The thing about picking and choosing is that anyone can do it. Dangerfield at 25 years old was absolutely worth two top 10 picks but he wasn't even traded for two firsts. You can't claim 'he was a free agent it's different' and then ignore any possible factor that doesn't give Kelly the highest trade value possible. That isn't how it works.
Hawthorn effectively traded R1 plus Brad Hill and picks 36 48 66 and 70 for OMeara.
 
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Big difference between giving a contract and having a player IN contract. BIG!!

You really think Geelong will just give up a first rounder and a second rounder to make a point?

Common sense will prevail. People are aware of Geelong double standards. Deal will get done.
Do you really think he will walk into the draft and risk ending up anywhere? Unless you do your comments are pointless.
 
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Hawthorn effectively traded R1 plus Brad Hill and picks 36 48 66 and 70 for OMeara.
They did, but Hill was a separate trade they didn't want to do. Was done a week before the O'Meara trade was finalised, same as the Mitchell one.

Similar ish to Lycett last year. We allowed him to go as a free agent and got an end of Rd 1 compo pick which was on the table, but we didn't push Lycett out just to get currency for Kelly or anyone else.
 

Seeds

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Just ignore any trade in history that doesn't provide a value high enough to how you rate Kelly. Echo chamber.

You know what is irrelevant?

Beams trade - won't have pick 5 (he was also contracted)
Shiel trade - probably won't have pick 9 (he was also contracted)
Treloar tade - probably won't have pick 7 (and he was 22 with 68 games under his belt)

:)
The fact you dont have those picks doesnt change his value. It just means you need to give up more of the picks you do have.

Uncontracted doesnt mean much unless kelly is willing to go to non perth clubs in the case of an agreement not being reached. He might if he thinks geelong is being unreasonable but if he thinks a contract wont happen due to the eagles not valuing him enough then he will probably stay.

Ps. I can be accused of a lot of things but sitting in a echo chamber is not one of them. A third of the geelong board thinks Im a hawks troll given my unbiased views.
 
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Do you really think he will walk into the draft and risk ending up anywhere? Unless you do your comments are pointless.
I think it's a <1% chance. But he only ends up in a draft after trade negotiations break down.

Assuming Geelong have an earlier pick than West Coast (say 14 vs 15), do you think Geelong would re-draft him?
 

sr36

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Just ignore any trade in history that doesn't provide a value high enough to how you rate Kelly. Echo chamber.

You know what is irrelevant?

Beams trade - won't have pick 5 (he was also contracted)
Shiel trade - probably won't have pick 9 (he was also contracted)
Treloar tade - probably won't have pick 7 (and he was 22 with 68 games under his belt)

:)
I'm not sure why you think these things are irrelevant. If you don't have these things, it doesn't make them irrelevant, it means WCE have to find something of equivalent value or close enough to satisfy cats. Assuming you end up high on the ladder this year, it's going to be tough and will probably involve a third party as i don't think the cats will value your picks highly enough.
 

Seeds

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FTFY.

The currency we have is a huge factor in a potential trade. Pretending otherwise is ignoring 25 years of trade history.
That post is ridiculous. What has your low draft picks got to do with his trade value? As long as all your draft picks and players willing to move combined can add up to kellys trade value (which is a clear yes unless you think kellys value is worth 3 21 year old wayne careys) then their is no constraint imposed by your low draft picks on his value. You just need to use more of them.
 
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