Uncontracted Tim Kelly

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They did, but Hill was a separate trade they didn't want to do. Was done a week before the O'Meara trade was finalised, same as the Mitchell one.

Similar ish to Lycett last year. We allowed him to go as a free agent and got an end of Rd 1 compo pick which was on the table, but we didn't push Lycett out just to get currency for Kelly or anyone else.
I agree i was just pointing out they gave up a hell of a lot more than pick 10 for a guy who hadnt played for 2 years.
 

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Pure_Ownage

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I think it's a <1% chance. But he only ends up in a draft after trade negotiations break down.

Assuming Geelong have an earlier pick than West Coast (say 14 vs 15), do you think Geelong would re-draft him?
If it came to it i think we would because we are in flag mode for 2020 and he would be better than anyone else at that pick but it would never come to that.
I just think reading between the lines Kelly is happy in Geelong but would like to get home for his wife if he can. So why would he risk the draft where they might end up anywhere and are both unhappy. At least in Geelong one of them is happy and in Perth maybe they both are. Kelly is clearly a better player than he was last year so Geelong are only getting less than they were offered last year if he genuinely will or can bluff that hes walking into the draft and i dont see that happening.
 

Scotland

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I'm not sure why you think these things are irrelevant. If you don't have these things, it doesn't make them irrelevant, it means WCE have to find something of equivalent value or close enough to satisfy cats. Assuming you end up high on the ladder this year, it's going to be tough and will probably involve a third party as i don't think the cats will value your picks highly enough.
No it doesn't. It's a negotiation. West Coast don't "have" to do a damned thing. Every year people get this weird idea that if a club is interested in a player they will automatically just manufacture whatever the player's club wants. Doesn't work like that and never has. Teams either reach a middle ground somewhere or they don't. It's not the NBA, you can't just trade Kelly to the Lakers because they offer 5 players and 3 first round picks.
 

Scotland

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If it came to it i think we would because we are in flag mode for 2020 and he would be better than anyone else at that pick but it would never come to that.
I just think reading between the lines Kelly is happy in Geelong but would like to get home for his wife if he can. So why would he risk the draft where they might end up anywhere and are both unhappy. At least in Geelong one of them is happy and in Perth maybe they both are. Kelly is clearly a better player than he was last year so Geelong are only getting less than they were offered last year if he genuinely will or can bluff that hes walking into the draft and i dont see that happening.
If it came to that it is because a trade did not take place and then the player refuses to re-sign. That's a series of events that is very unlikely to occur. Take it to the bank if that occurred Geelong would not redraft Kelly.
 

sr36

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No it doesn't. It's a negotiation. West Coast don't "have" to do a damned thing. Every year people get this weird idea that if a club is interested in a player they will automatically just manufacture whatever the player's club wants. Doesn't work like that and never has. Teams either reach a middle ground somewhere or they don't. It's not the NBA, you can't just trade Kelly to the Lakers because they offer 5 players and 3 first round picks.
Obviously they don't have to do a trade and they won't if the price is too high. That goes without saying, but I don't know why you're mentioning it in a discussion about likely trade price. The fact that WCE don't have to trade him in has no bearing on the price that Geelong would accept. If it turns out they're selling, they decide the floor price.
 

Scotland

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The fact that WCE don't have to trade him in has no bearing on the price that Geelong would accept.
Only if you ignore the reverse condition that Geelong don't have to trade him out.

If he asks to be traded, isn't and won't re-sign then he's not a Geelong player and Geelong get nothing. Certainly doesn't make him a WC or Freo player but they would have lost zero assets. If he is happy to stay in Geelong then I doubt WC will even present an offer.
 

sr36

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Only if you ignore the reverse condition that Geelong don't have to trade him out.

If he asks to be traded, isn't and won't re-sign then he's not a Geelong player and Geelong get nothing. Certainly doesn't make him a WC or Freo player but they would have lost zero assets. If he is happy to stay in Geelong then I doubt WC will even present an offer.
I'm not ignoring that condition, I just don't think there is a hope in hell of it occurring. He seems happy at Geelong, but would move to WCE if given the opportunity. There's no way he's putting himself into the draft. No player since Luke Ball has done it and he was a 28 year old, struggling to get a game at his club, with a well known case of OP, who didn't let any club do a medical on him. No one trying it since Ball suggests to me that player managers are clearly advising against it. Some clubs may not be willing to take him, but he's a 24 year old star who is currently showing that his footy won't be affected by not getting to his club of choice. If ever a player and his manager should be concerned that the draft wasn't the way to go, it's Tim Kelly and his manager. Assuming you guys finish near the pointy end, the likelihood of him risking going anywhere in the draft is beyond remote.

FWIW, I think he'll win the Brownlow and re-sign with Geelong. But good luck to him wherever he goes. He's a pleasure to watch.
 

ghostbat12

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Do you really think he will walk into the draft and risk ending up anywhere? Unless you do your comments are pointless.
Not really. Do you really think Geelong will risk getting nothing?

Kelly’s issues are well known. No other club will take him on if he doesn’t want to go there. There are theories about what will happen and there are practical things that do happen. AFL will tap every other club on shoulder and tell them not to take him due to restriction of trade issues.

They are all much more likely than your dream like inventions.
 

Rich01

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The only way thats genuinely happening is if Tim is prepared to risk going in the ND and i doubt he is and i doubt he can bluff Geelong into thinking that (especially with his amateur hour manager). Unless he can Geelong will get a lot more than that.
Kelly will pull the compassionate family card. It’s been done before. Ablett came back to Geelong for a second rounder.
 

Alphonse_

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In the unlikely event Kelly ends up in the National Draft, he will end up at West Coast, aka Luke Ball.

No other club will be foolish enough to waste a good pick on a 'rental' like Kelly, if he chooses to quit Geelong.

The draft threat is a real possibility, but I really hope it doesn't come to that. West Coast have the better hand this time around. But it's not an ideal system.
 

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foxdog50

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Big difference between giving a contract and having a player IN contract. BIG!!

You really think Geelong will just give up a first rounder and a second rounder to make a point?

Common sense will prevail. People are aware of Geelong double standards. Deal will get done.
So what do you think is a fair trade?
 

foxdog50

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I expect it will be along the lines of:

Geelong: WCE 2019 1st + WCE 2020 1st
Westcoast: Kelly
Spot on... And tbh, I'm hoping a fairy tale season for him and we signed him back at Geelong but I highly doubt he will stay at Geelong. I think it's only a 10% chance he will stay...
 

fpm84

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Kelly will pull the compassionate family card. It’s been done before. Ablett came back to Geelong for a second rounder.
Ablett was 33 and coming off several injury interrupted seasons.

At the time the general BigFooty consensus was that we paid overs and we were desperate.

Fast forward 18 months and now that Gaz is in line for AA and contending for a Brownlow at age 35, apparently we made out like bandits.

Revisionist history at its finest.
 

sr36

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In the unlikely event Kelly ends up in the National Draft, he will end up at West Coast, aka Luke Ball.

No other club will be foolish enough to waste a good pick on a 'rental' like Kelly, if he chooses to quit Geelong.

The draft threat is a real possibility, but I really hope it doesn't come to that. West Coast have the better hand this time around. But it's not an ideal system.
Luke Ball went to Collingwood at Pick 30, but he wasn't worth any more than pick 30 to any club other than Collingwood. He was a late 20s guy who was struggling to get a game for his team. He had OP which had stopped him being able to kick the ball 40 metres for the previous 3 years. And he didn't allow any other club to do a medical on him to assess the extent of his OP. He was a great get for a team in their Premiership window who needed an inside mid - Collingwood, but no other team would have valued him significantly above Pick 30.

Nobody has been willing to test the 'just nominate for the draft and you'll slide through' theory. I personally think that is because the industry knows or at least the player managers believe that they won't just slide through. How many kids have been drafted somewhere they didn't want to go? Why is the Kelly situation any different?

At 24 years of age, he'd clearly go number 1 if there wasn't any restrictions or 'go home factor'. The likelihood of him slipping until 14 of wherever WCEs first ends up is really slim in my opinion. particularly as not getting to his club of choice doesn't seem to have had a negative impact on his footy.

Even if he does just turn out to be a rental. Get a star in your team for a year and then trade him for a profit in terms of draft picks. Big win.
 

sr36

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Do you really think the Cats will risk getting nothing? Unless you do your comments are pointless.

Cuts both ways this argument.
Ever played poker? People call other's bluffs all the time. I think he'll sign beforehand, but if it comes to a draft threat from the Kelly camp, they'll read their tea leaves, decide he's bloody unlikely to put himself into the draft and set their price accordingly.

I personally think WCE had their chance, but were too tight and not willing to pay what he was worth. He'll be too high a price for them now. They won't be able to get the deal done without trading out a Premiership player, which they'd be mad to do. Only way I see it getting done to WCE is if someone from WCE wants out or one of their talented youngsters gets traded - but with their list profile they'd have to be reluctant to do that. If they can package up every pick they have and manage to swap them with another party for someone good - that'd be their other possibility.
 

year of the cat

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Ever played poker? People call other's bluffs all the time. I think he'll sign beforehand, but if it comes to a draft threat from the Kelly camp, they'll read their tea leaves, decide he's bloody unlikely to put himself into the draft and set their price accordingly.

I personally think WCE had their chance, but were too tight and not willing to pay what he was worth. He'll be too high a price for them now. They won't be able to get the deal done without trading out a Premiership player, which they'd be mad to do. Only way I see it getting done to WCE is if someone from WCE wants out or one of their talented youngsters gets traded - but with their list profile they'd have to be reluctant to do that. If they can package up every pick they have and manage to swap them with another party for someone good - that'd be their other possibility.
That’s my reading as well. Think Freo are the far more likely destination now if he decides to head back home.
 

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And which one of those two things do you think is more likely? The answer is pretty obvious imo.
Yes it is obvious.

The Cats will get what they can and will trade.

They wont refuse to trade and get nothing, that would be counter productive and quite stupid.

It would also paint them as being difficult to deal with which could effect future dealings.

Cats posters on here bemoan the lack of toughness the club has shown over the years at the trade tabke. All of a sudden the club becomes inflexible and difficult to deal with?
 
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Obeanie1

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No one has been willing to test the 'just nominate for the draft and you'll slide through' theory.

Even if he does just turn out to be a rental. Get a star in your team for a year and then trade him for a profit in terms of draft picks. Big win.
So now the AFL draft is like the stock market? Riiiiight!

Im sure list managers who spend thousands of hours looking at who to draft with a first round pick will decide to do that.
 

sr36

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So now the AFL draft is like the stock market? Riiiiight!

Im sure list managers who spend thousands of hours looking at who to draft with a first round pick will decide to do that.
The rental bit was in relation to someone else who used the term. I really just meant draft him. Hope he stays. And if he doesn't .Oh well. you won't lose anything at the trade table - unlike the countless 18 year olds who get drafted despite beingreluctant to go to the club that chooses them and then get traded home a couple of years later at a big loss. You should know about a couple of your better players being acquired that way.

If in those thousands of hours, these list managers don't notice Kelly (although they've missed him a few times before) they should start looking for their next job rather than the next star.

The "he'll nominate for the draft" hasn't happened for a decade and it hasn't ever happened for someone with the draft value of Tim Kelly - since the PSD stopped being the threat. The likelihood of Kelly being willing to test it or his manager being able to bluff the Cats seems pretty remote to me. That's my take anyway. Whether contracted or not, Geelong's expectations will need to be met. Just out of curiosity what are some examples of uncontracted high profile guys going for significantly less than contracted high profile guys? Genuine question as uncontracted gets thrown out here a lot as a reason why someone will come cheap - is it supported by what has actually occurred.
 
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