Uncontracted Tim Kelly

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sr36

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2 first rounders to Geelong.

Eagles get geelongs 2020 2nd rounder back.

However I think for afl sake, I hope he signs new deal with Geelong. That’s really what every fan wants good players to do at their own club.
If wce were a bottom eight team, that might do it. But when you're a top 8 team, two picks likely to be in the teens for kelly and something else back would be Highway robbery.
 
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Wce don't have leverage. He's not going to the draft and if he did and ither teams weren't willing to pick him, Hawthorn would do a live trade and get in before you.
We will if he chooses us. Again there is theoretical shite and actually what happens and that’s that players get to where they want. Kelly understood he was in contract and accepted it. Who says he would be as understanding next time?


So come back when you start thinking about reality.
 
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Read back thru the threads at the time bud. Desperate yes, but also made out like bandits.
Ablett was old, Dangerfield was a free agent, Treloar being younger doesn't matter, Shiel being contracted doesn't matter.

It's funny how many people exclusively focus on best case scenario and just dismiss anything that doesn't fit that narrative. There are probably a dozen trades over the last 4-5 years you can draw comparisons from, not two.
 

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Wojcinski

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Ablett was old, Dangerfield was a free agent, Treloar being younger doesn't matter, Shiel being contracted doesn't matter.

It's funny how many people exclusively focus on best case scenario and just dismiss anything that doesn't fit that narrative. There are probably a dozen trades over the last 4-5 years you can draw comparisons from, not two.
Shiel and Treloar both went for two good first round picks. Kelly is also as good or better than both.

A second round pick, lmfao
 

sr36

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We will if he chooses us. Again there is theoretical shite and actually what happens and that’s that players get to where they want. Kelly understood he was in contract and accepted it. Who says he would be as understanding next time?


So come back when you start thinking about reality.
Agreed. The difference of opinion we have is solely that I think the good players get there by the acquiring club paying pretty close to market value. When there isn't a situation of fair value likely to be obtained, their managers don't announce a nominated club.
 

Wojcinski

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That is wonderful.

So is Kelly 22? Is he under contract? Do we have pick 7 or 9?
I like that you can compare Kelly to other trades all day but then turn around with this response. It must be very cloudy up there.

ps. It's cute that you think you have some kind of say in any trade WCE is involved in.
 

sr36

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That is wonderful.

So is Kelly 22? Is he under contract? Do we have pick 7 or 9?
If I owned a shop, and you came in, I suspect this is how the conversation would go:

Me: That'll be $200 please.
You: I've only got $50, so I'll take it for that.
Me. Sorry, I can't give it to you for that price. I'll do $190.
You. Your price is irrelevant, because I've only got $50, I'll take it for that, because it has a used by date on it and you don't want to risk it going off.
Me. Get out!

To be honest, I think that a negotiation between Geelong and WCE for Kelly is pretty likely to go the same way.

I expect there are some pretty stern words being said to those responsible for trades at WCE at the moment. "Bloody Hell. Last year, we could have had Tim Kelly for 5 years on $400,000, but no, you guys were too stingy. If we pay a heap more in trade, we may be able to get him this year for $800,000 a year."
 
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Ablett was old, Dangerfield was a free agent, Treloar being younger doesn't matter, Shiel being contracted doesn't matter.

It's funny how many people exclusively focus on best case scenario and just dismiss anything that doesn't fit that narrative. There are probably a dozen trades over the last 4-5 years you can draw comparisons from, not two.
Pot. Kettle.....
 

sr36

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WC don't have leverage? Most people would say that an OOC wanting to join your club represents a reasonable state of affairs.
I haven't really paid attention to whether traded big names were contracted or not. Are there actually any examples to suggest that uncontracted stars go for less than contracted stars, or is it just bigfooty folklore?
 
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I haven't really paid attention to whether traded big names were contracted or not. Are there actually any examples to suggest that uncontracted stars go for less than contracted stars, or is it just bigfooty folklore?
Dylan Shiel went for more than Patrick Dangerfield at the same age. Do you reckon Fremantle and Port get as much for Lachie Neale and Chad Wingard respectively if those players are out of contract?

'Oh but Dangerfield was a free agent'. Yes, a restricted one. Geelong only traded because they knew Adelaide would match the terms.

BigFooty never ceases to amaze. Last year we had to stump up whatever Geelong wanted (i.e. "an exceptional offer, a top 10 pick, or more.") because Kelly was contracted. This year Kelly being out of contract makes no difference. Cool.
 

sr36

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Dylan Shiel went for more than Patrick Dangerfield at the same age. Do you reckon Fremantle and Port get as much for Lachie Neale and Chad Wingard respectively if those players are out of contract?

'Oh but Dangerfield was a free agent'. Yes, a restricted one. Geelong only traded because they knew Adelaide would match the terms.

BigFooty never ceases to amaze. Last year we had to stump up whatever Geelong wanted (i.e. "an exceptional offer, a top 10 pick, or more.") because Kelly was contracted. This year Kelly being out of contract makes no difference. Cool.
Is Dangerfield the only example to sustantiate the bigfooty truth of an uncontracted discount?

In terms of Bigfooty amazing you, it's often completely different people with different opinions. A top 10 pick for him at the end of last year seems to me to have been a pretty reasonable price, regardless of his contract - but obviously his price has risen since.
 
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ps. It's cute that you think you have some kind of say in any trade WCE is involved in.
As opposed to all you nuffies authoritatively stating what WC must do because of some arbitrary value you've made up.

The thing is I am happy to acknowledge that it's possible you'll get a top 10 pick and a future first round pick in a trade. Maybe we'll cave and give you more than any player traded for in the last 5 years. I don't think it's likely, particularly if we finish in the top 8.

But I also acknowledge the realities of how trade week works, something that the majority of Cats fans do not. If you can't handle an opposing POV then go to the Geelong board.
 

sr36

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You want me to summarise every traded player for you?
No. I'm just curious if there is actually any justification for the theory that uncontracted stars go cheaper than contracted stars, as I'm skeptical of the theory. Seeing you are suggesting it's the case, I'm asking you. If you don't know, just say so. If anyone else does know I'd be happy for the info. Cheers.
 
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GWS and Gold Coast were fairly compensated for the OOC Shiel, Treloar and O’Meara, all of which are comparable trades.

Kelly is absolutely worth two first round picks.
Lol you don't pay 2 first round picks for a bloke that is out of contract and only been in the system for 2 years. No matter how good they are. Any suggestions of being considered on par with the Shield trade are ludicrous.
 
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No. I'm just curious if there is actually any justification for the theory that uncontracted stars go cheaper than contracted stars, as I'm skeptical of the theory. Seeing you are suggesting it's the case, I'm asking you. If you don't know, just say so. If anyone else does know I'd be happy for the info. Cheers.
It's a narrow way of looking at it. Value is arbitrary, so people will argue what is fair and what isn't for every trade.

We don't know what Dylan Shiel would have been traded for last year if he was out of contract, that's hypothetical. But we do know that GWS were happy to let him explore his options ahead of free agency and happy to retain him for 2019 if no suitable offer was presented. I don't know how anyone can argue that clubs have stronger leverage with contracted players allowing them to get the best deal, but when players are out of contract that isn't something that may drive the trade value down. That's nuts. Not a chance in hell Adelaide take picks 9 and 28 and Dean Gore in 2014 when Dangerfield is under contract.

If you have an out of contract player that has nominated a club they wish to join and that club doesn't have draft picks of commensurate value then that is not a position you want to be in. We got pick 28 for Brad Ebert. Now he wasn't a superstar but a 21 year old pick 13 with 76 games in 4 years was someone we wanted to retain. Most of us thought something in the range of 15-25 was fair, and Port had 6 and 28. We got 28 and that's how trading works a lot of the time.
 
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