Uncontracted Tim Kelly

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Geelong can’t hold him to his contract this year, can they?
They can give him a new contract. If geelong cant find a suitable trade with eagles they can tell kelly its us or the draft. Kelly choose us over freo last year. Dont see why he would risk going to carlton or gold coast or port adelaide in the draft if he wouldnt even choose freemantle.
 

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Shiel (25) was not out of contract. Two firsts, second back.
Treloar (22) was out of contract. Two firsts, second back.
O'Meara (22) was out of contract. Traded for first plus future second. St Kilda arguably got more for pick 10 than GC did but Hawthorn gonna Hawthorn.

Tom Mitchell (23) was out of contract. Pick 14.
Patrick Dangerfield (25) was out of contract and a RFA. Picks 9 and 28 and Dean Gore.
Devon Smith (24) was out of contract. Picks 11 and future third, 25 and future second coming back.

The thing about picking and choosing is that anyone can do it. Dangerfield at 25 years old was absolutely worth two top 10 picks but he wasn't even traded for two firsts. You can't claim 'he was a free agent it's different' and then ignore any possible factor that doesn't give Kelly the highest trade value possible. That isn't how it works.
Not all firsts are equal. A top 5 pick is worth a lot more then pick 10 which is worth a lot more then the pick 16-20 the eagles will have. Your future first will also be considered a 16-20 pick.

Tom mitchell was only a 3-5 ranked mid in his own team when traded. Not a great comparison. Omeara was injured for 2 years with many questioning whether he would ever play again. So again not a good comparison. Danger was a Rfa so not relevant. If adelaide didnt provide a low offer geelong would of just increased his pay and got him for free picks wise. Eagles cant do that. Smith was not in the same class at trade time. Treloer or shiel is the closest in comparison although kelly may very well surpass them in trade value by the end of the year if he keeps his current form up. Also you left out beams trade oddly enough.
 
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Peel67skin

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Kelly will go to Fremantle , in between what eagle and Geelong fan value him .
 

Scotland

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Just ignore any trade in history that doesn't provide a value high enough to how you rate Kelly. Echo chamber.

You know what is irrelevant?

Beams trade - won't have pick 5 (he was also contracted)
Shiel trade - probably won't have pick 9 (he was also contracted)
Treloar tade - probably won't have pick 7 (and he was 22 with 68 games under his belt)

:)
 

ghostbat12

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They can give him a new contract. If geelong cant find a suitable trade with eagles they can tell kelly its us or the draft. Kelly choose us over freo last year. Dont see why he would risk going to carlton or gold coast or port adelaide in the draft if he wouldnt even choose freemantle.
Big difference between giving a contract and having a player IN contract. BIG!!

You really think Geelong will just give up a first rounder and a second rounder to make a point?

Common sense will prevail. People are aware of Geelong double standards. Deal will get done.
 

sr36

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I expect it will be along the lines of:

Geelong: WCE 2019 1st + WCE 2020 1st
Westcoast: Kelly
It's going to be bloody hard for him to get to WCE. If WCE finish top 4, 2 WCE first round selections would be a crap deal for the Cats. Two picks in the teens don't seem close to the mark to me.
 

new breed

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Can't see him getting to WC now unless they have a poor remainder of the season.
Well if he Kelly still wants to get to WCE then Kelly might take a lesser offer to get to WCE ...could easily happen . Satisfying Geelong wouldn't be easy and we are fair traders from what I've seen in past years , not having a go at Freo they are a little tougher in their trading history . Pity help Geelong if Kelly gets to Freo .
 

Pure_Ownage

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Doesn’t happen that way anymore.
Players end up getting to their club of choice these days, particularly the good ones.
West Coast will offer up their first rounder and Geelong will eventually reluctantly accept it.
The only way thats genuinely happening is if Tim is prepared to risk going in the ND and i doubt he is and i doubt he can bluff Geelong into thinking that (especially with his amateur hour manager). Unless he can Geelong will get a lot more than that.
 

Pure_Ownage

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Shiel (25) was not out of contract. Two firsts, second back.
Treloar (22) was out of contract. Two firsts, second back.
O'Meara (22) was out of contract. Traded for first plus future second. St Kilda arguably got more for pick 10 than GC did but Hawthorn gonna Hawthorn.

Tom Mitchell (23) was out of contract. Pick 14.
Patrick Dangerfield (25) was out of contract and a RFA. Picks 9 and 28 and Dean Gore.
Devon Smith (24) was out of contract. Picks 11 and future third, 25 and future second coming back.

The thing about picking and choosing is that anyone can do it. Dangerfield at 25 years old was absolutely worth two top 10 picks but he wasn't even traded for two firsts. You can't claim 'he was a free agent it's different' and then ignore any possible factor that doesn't give Kelly the highest trade value possible. That isn't how it works.
Hawthorn effectively traded R1 plus Brad Hill and picks 36 48 66 and 70 for OMeara.
 

Pure_Ownage

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Big difference between giving a contract and having a player IN contract. BIG!!

You really think Geelong will just give up a first rounder and a second rounder to make a point?

Common sense will prevail. People are aware of Geelong double standards. Deal will get done.
Do you really think he will walk into the draft and risk ending up anywhere? Unless you do your comments are pointless.
 

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Scotland

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Hawthorn effectively traded R1 plus Brad Hill and picks 36 48 66 and 70 for OMeara.
They did, but Hill was a separate trade they didn't want to do. Was done a week before the O'Meara trade was finalised, same as the Mitchell one.

Similar ish to Lycett last year. We allowed him to go as a free agent and got an end of Rd 1 compo pick which was on the table, but we didn't push Lycett out just to get currency for Kelly or anyone else.
 

Seeds

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Just ignore any trade in history that doesn't provide a value high enough to how you rate Kelly. Echo chamber.

You know what is irrelevant?

Beams trade - won't have pick 5 (he was also contracted)
Shiel trade - probably won't have pick 9 (he was also contracted)
Treloar tade - probably won't have pick 7 (and he was 22 with 68 games under his belt)

:)
The fact you dont have those picks doesnt change his value. It just means you need to give up more of the picks you do have.

Uncontracted doesnt mean much unless kelly is willing to go to non perth clubs in the case of an agreement not being reached. He might if he thinks geelong is being unreasonable but if he thinks a contract wont happen due to the eagles not valuing him enough then he will probably stay.

Ps. I can be accused of a lot of things but sitting in a echo chamber is not one of them. A third of the geelong board thinks Im a hawks troll given my unbiased views.
 

Scotland

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Do you really think he will walk into the draft and risk ending up anywhere? Unless you do your comments are pointless.
I think it's a <1% chance. But he only ends up in a draft after trade negotiations break down.

Assuming Geelong have an earlier pick than West Coast (say 14 vs 15), do you think Geelong would re-draft him?
 

Scotland

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The fact you dont have those picks doesnt change my opinon of his value.
FTFY.

The currency we have is a huge factor in a potential trade. Pretending otherwise is ignoring 25 years of trade history.
 

sr36

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Just ignore any trade in history that doesn't provide a value high enough to how you rate Kelly. Echo chamber.

You know what is irrelevant?

Beams trade - won't have pick 5 (he was also contracted)
Shiel trade - probably won't have pick 9 (he was also contracted)
Treloar tade - probably won't have pick 7 (and he was 22 with 68 games under his belt)

:)
I'm not sure why you think these things are irrelevant. If you don't have these things, it doesn't make them irrelevant, it means WCE have to find something of equivalent value or close enough to satisfy cats. Assuming you end up high on the ladder this year, it's going to be tough and will probably involve a third party as i don't think the cats will value your picks highly enough.
 

Seeds

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FTFY.

The currency we have is a huge factor in a potential trade. Pretending otherwise is ignoring 25 years of trade history.
That post is ridiculous. What has your low draft picks got to do with his trade value? As long as all your draft picks and players willing to move combined can add up to kellys trade value (which is a clear yes unless you think kellys value is worth 3 21 year old wayne careys) then their is no constraint imposed by your low draft picks on his value. You just need to use more of them.
 

Pure_Ownage

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They did, but Hill was a separate trade they didn't want to do. Was done a week before the O'Meara trade was finalised, same as the Mitchell one.

Similar ish to Lycett last year. We allowed him to go as a free agent and got an end of Rd 1 compo pick which was on the table, but we didn't push Lycett out just to get currency for Kelly or anyone else.
I agree i was just pointing out they gave up a hell of a lot more than pick 10 for a guy who hadnt played for 2 years.
 

Pure_Ownage

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I think it's a <1% chance. But he only ends up in a draft after trade negotiations break down.

Assuming Geelong have an earlier pick than West Coast (say 14 vs 15), do you think Geelong would re-draft him?
If it came to it i think we would because we are in flag mode for 2020 and he would be better than anyone else at that pick but it would never come to that.
I just think reading between the lines Kelly is happy in Geelong but would like to get home for his wife if he can. So why would he risk the draft where they might end up anywhere and are both unhappy. At least in Geelong one of them is happy and in Perth maybe they both are. Kelly is clearly a better player than he was last year so Geelong are only getting less than they were offered last year if he genuinely will or can bluff that hes walking into the draft and i dont see that happening.
 

Scotland

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I'm not sure why you think these things are irrelevant. If you don't have these things, it doesn't make them irrelevant, it means WCE have to find something of equivalent value or close enough to satisfy cats. Assuming you end up high on the ladder this year, it's going to be tough and will probably involve a third party as i don't think the cats will value your picks highly enough.
No it doesn't. It's a negotiation. West Coast don't "have" to do a damned thing. Every year people get this weird idea that if a club is interested in a player they will automatically just manufacture whatever the player's club wants. Doesn't work like that and never has. Teams either reach a middle ground somewhere or they don't. It's not the NBA, you can't just trade Kelly to the Lakers because they offer 5 players and 3 first round picks.
 

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If it came to it i think we would because we are in flag mode for 2020 and he would be better than anyone else at that pick but it would never come to that.
I just think reading between the lines Kelly is happy in Geelong but would like to get home for his wife if he can. So why would he risk the draft where they might end up anywhere and are both unhappy. At least in Geelong one of them is happy and in Perth maybe they both are. Kelly is clearly a better player than he was last year so Geelong are only getting less than they were offered last year if he genuinely will or can bluff that hes walking into the draft and i dont see that happening.
If it came to that it is because a trade did not take place and then the player refuses to re-sign. That's a series of events that is very unlikely to occur. Take it to the bank if that occurred Geelong would not redraft Kelly.
 

sr36

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No it doesn't. It's a negotiation. West Coast don't "have" to do a damned thing. Every year people get this weird idea that if a club is interested in a player they will automatically just manufacture whatever the player's club wants. Doesn't work like that and never has. Teams either reach a middle ground somewhere or they don't. It's not the NBA, you can't just trade Kelly to the Lakers because they offer 5 players and 3 first round picks.
Obviously they don't have to do a trade and they won't if the price is too high. That goes without saying, but I don't know why you're mentioning it in a discussion about likely trade price. The fact that WCE don't have to trade him in has no bearing on the price that Geelong would accept. If it turns out they're selling, they decide the floor price.
 

Scotland

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The fact that WCE don't have to trade him in has no bearing on the price that Geelong would accept.
Only if you ignore the reverse condition that Geelong don't have to trade him out.

If he asks to be traded, isn't and won't re-sign then he's not a Geelong player and Geelong get nothing. Certainly doesn't make him a WC or Freo player but they would have lost zero assets. If he is happy to stay in Geelong then I doubt WC will even present an offer.
 

sr36

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Only if you ignore the reverse condition that Geelong don't have to trade him out.

If he asks to be traded, isn't and won't re-sign then he's not a Geelong player and Geelong get nothing. Certainly doesn't make him a WC or Freo player but they would have lost zero assets. If he is happy to stay in Geelong then I doubt WC will even present an offer.
I'm not ignoring that condition, I just don't think there is a hope in hell of it occurring. He seems happy at Geelong, but would move to WCE if given the opportunity. There's no way he's putting himself into the draft. No player since Luke Ball has done it and he was a 28 year old, struggling to get a game at his club, with a well known case of OP, who didn't let any club do a medical on him. No one trying it since Ball suggests to me that player managers are clearly advising against it. Some clubs may not be willing to take him, but he's a 24 year old star who is currently showing that his footy won't be affected by not getting to his club of choice. If ever a player and his manager should be concerned that the draft wasn't the way to go, it's Tim Kelly and his manager. Assuming you guys finish near the pointy end, the likelihood of him risking going anywhere in the draft is beyond remote.

FWIW, I think he'll win the Brownlow and re-sign with Geelong. But good luck to him wherever he goes. He's a pleasure to watch.
 

ghostbat12

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Do you really think he will walk into the draft and risk ending up anywhere? Unless you do your comments are pointless.
Not really. Do you really think Geelong will risk getting nothing?

Kelly’s issues are well known. No other club will take him on if he doesn’t want to go there. There are theories about what will happen and there are practical things that do happen. AFL will tap every other club on shoulder and tell them not to take him due to restriction of trade issues.

They are all much more likely than your dream like inventions.
 
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