Recommitted Tim Kelly [requested a trade to West Coast]

[Scotland]

Gonna be a lonnnnng year. I hope he re-signs soon.

 

[kane249]

Its difficult tbh but the players you might part with for e.g. coles name seems to keep getting thrown up and hes a good player but plays a position we are stacked in.

We need a quality outside mid but i doubt youd give up your top guys someone like Petrucelle might have some interest but hes dean gore steak knives value really.

We need a kpf so brander or allen and a top 20 pick would go close but i doubt youd do that.
Honestly freo have more capacity to do the deal in picks whereas i doubt you can satisfy us without players.
I think if geel and wce deal for kelly it would need to be a 3 club trade.

So again back to 2 first round draft picks essentially, i'd be disappointed if we gave that up for Kelly especially with the good signs both Allen and Brander have shown so far.

 

[DBAH0]

So again back to 2 first round draft picks essentially, i'd be disappointed if we gave that up for Kelly especially with the good signs both Allen and Brander have shown so far.

If you look at say Shiel and Treloar, both got 2 1st round picks.

Would you rate Tim Kelly on the same level as those 2, especially if he keeps his current form up for the rest of the season?

 

[Turbocat]

So again back to 2 first round draft picks essentially, i'd be disappointed if we gave that up for Kelly especially with the good signs both Allen and Brander have shown so far.

what do you visualise as a fair deal ..?

 

[Virgin Dog]

If you look at say Shiel and Treloar, both got 2 1st round picks.

Would you rate Tim Kelly on the same level as those 2, especially if he keeps his current form up for the rest of the season?

Kelly goes to the draft if a deal can't be made, so I don't think Geelong gets his full value. Shiel and Treloar worth more in my opinion, but not too much more.

Asking for Allen/Brander along with a top 20 pick is way, way too steep of a price. That's getting into Wingard levels of price. You don't usually pay that for a 3rd/4th mid (given he's behind Selwood and Danger at Geelong minimum, and would be behind Shuey and Gaff, as well as possibly Sheed and Yeo).

If the price got that high, I doubt Eagles would follow through. Straight swap for Brander if he shows something this year seems about fair imo. If he doesn't play, then a pick in the 20's or 30's would have to be included with Brander (as I think Allen would be untouchable)

 

[DBAH0]

Kelly goes to the draft if a deal can't be made, so I don't think Geelong gets his full value. Shiel and Treloar worth more in my opinion, but not too much more.

Asking for Allen/Brander along with a top 20 pick is way, way too steep of a price. That's getting into Wingard levels of price. You don't usually pay that for a 3rd/4th mid (given he's behind Selwood and Danger at Geelong minimum, and would be behind Shuey and Gaff, as well as possibly Sheed and Yeo).

If the price got that high, I doubt Eagles would follow through. Straight swap for Brander if he shows something this year seems about fair imo. If he doesn't play, then a pick in the 20's or 30's would have to be included with Brander (as I think Allen would be untouchable)

Whether he'd take the risk of the Pre Season Draft is another matter, don't think he'd be National Draft eligible unless I'm wrong.

I'd have him ahead of Selwood as a midfielder at the moment. And I think asking for a Wingard type of price is fair enough, as Wingard had a fairly average 2018 and still got a good young defender in Burton and a 1st rounder.

Straight swap for Brander we wouldn't do for sure considering what we rejected last trade season I'd imagine.

 

[Corn69]

I really hope he re-signs with cats soon, doubt we’ll even consider trading Brander or Allen, both of whom grew up supporting the eagles. Heck I wouldn’t even mind if he went to Freo.

 

[Turbocat]

I really hope he re-signs with cats soon, doubt we’ll even consider trading Brander or Allen, both of whom grew up supporting the eagles. Heck I wouldn’t even mind if he went to Freo.

Its only family related .. if it was footy I think he would have signed by now. He has family complications and he feels it best for them back in WA im sure all at Geelong would understand that... of course it doesn't mean they let him go for zero either

 

[kane249]

If you look at say Shiel and Treloar, both got 2 1st round picks.

Would you rate Tim Kelly on the same level as those 2, especially if he keeps his current form up for the rest of the season?

Not yet no, Shiel and Treloar had a lot more exposed form when they came up for trade rather than one season and 2 games which Kelly has.

 

[Turbocat]

Whether he'd take the risk of the Pre Season Draft is another matter, don't think he'd be National Draft eligible unless I'm wrong.

I'd have him ahead of Selwood as a midfielder at the moment. And I think asking for a Wingard type of price is fair enough, as Wingard had a fairly average 2018 and still got a good young defender in Burton and a 1st rounder.

Straight swap for Brander we wouldn't do for sure considering what we rejected last trade season I'd imagine.

I think you will find he could nominate for the National..and put a price on his head to deter some from drafting him. Most bottom teams would not draft him using an early single figure pick imo

 

[Scotland]

If you look at say Shiel and Treloar, both got 2 1st round picks.

Would you rate Tim Kelly on the same level as those 2, especially if he keeps his current form up for the rest of the season?

Dylan Shiel: 25 years old, 133 games, AA 2017, ?-4-9-7-6-4-6 in the B&F over 7 seasons. Traded for pick 9 and future 1st round pick with future 2nd pick going back the other way. Under contract.

Adam Treloar: 22 years old, 79 games, 9-5-4-2 in the B&F over 4 seasons. Traded for pick 7, pick 65 and future 1st round pick with pick 28 going back the other way. Out of contract.

By the end of this season Kelly will be 25 and have played up to about 45 games. Came 2nd in the B&F last year, polled 13 Brownlow votes.

Treloar was worth more because he was only 22 and had 79 games under his belt and 3 top 5 B&F finishes. Is he worth more than Shiel? I would say no, especially considering Shiel was under contract and being shopped around a year ahead of FA. Shiel is a better user by foot, a better clearance winner and has a larger body of work. Both Shield and Treloar also showed they could perform in weak teams with no support having started out at GWS when they were easybeats. Devon Smith (who won Essendon's B&F) probably more comparable and he went with pick 25 and a future 2nd for pick 11 and a future 3rd.

The main thing that gets overlooked repeatedly is that you can't trade what you don't have, and you can't trade a player where they don't want to go. It's not the NBA where best deal wins. Dangerfield went for 9, 28 and Dean Gore. He would've gone for 5, 24 and Dean Gore if Geelong finished lower, or 2, 21 and Dean Gore if they finished lower still.

 

[Turbocat]

Not yet no, Shiel and Treloar had a lot more exposed form when they came up for trade rather than one season and 2 games which Kelly has.

I dont think its an exact comparison either .. although I think there is plenty of form to judge him on.. all would pretty well know what they are getting now..the only doub would be how he would fit without Danger etc... but against Melb they ever moved the tag on to him and let Danger go. Kelly is getting close to being as important as any mid we have.

 

[Scotland]

I think you will find he could nominate for the National..and put a price on his head to deter some from drafting him. Most bottom teams woul not draft him using an early single figure pick imo

I don't think any club would take him in the ND if that were the case, including Freo. Can't see Freo burning a potential top 10 pick on a guy who would have told them during trade week he didn't want to be there. But I also don't think it will happen. Will re-sign with Geelong or be traded to a WA club.

 

[Turbocat]

Dylan Shiel: 25 years old, 133 games, AA 2017, ?-4-9-7-6-4-6 in the B&F over 7 seasons. Traded for pick 9 and future 1st round pick with future 2nd pick going back the other way. Under contract.

Adam Treloar: 22 years old, 79 games, 9-5-4-2 in the B&F over 4 seasons. Traded for pick 7, pick 65 and future 1st round pick with pick 28 going back the other way. Out of contract.

By the end of this season Kelly will be 25 and have played up to about 45 games. Came 2nd in the B&F last year, polled 13 Brownlow votes.

Treloar was worth more because he was only 22 and had 79 games under his belt and 3 top 5 B&F finishes. Is he worth more than Shiel? I would say no, especially considering Shiel was under contract and being shopped around a year ahead of FA. Shiel is a better user by foot, a better clearance winner and has a larger body of work. Both Shield and Treloar also showed they could perform in weak teams with no support having started out at GWS when they were easybeats. Devon Smith (who won Essendon's B&F) probably more comparable and he went with pick 25 and a future 2nd for pick 11 and a future 3rd.

The main thing that gets overlooked repeatedly is that you can't trade what you don't have, and you can't trade a player where they don't want to go. It's not the NBA where best deal wins. Dangerfield went for 9, 28 and Dean Gore. He would've gone for 5, 24 and Dean Gore if Geelong finished lower, or 2, 21 and Dean Gore if they finished lower still.

Thats a pretty good assessment .. I don't think there is an exact comparison.. and what I dont know is where the line is that Geelong would say that just not enough and the whole thing melts down..as I do think in the end Geelong take less than he is worth to them. When the tags start to move from Danger to Kelly you know he is starting to be very important in their setup.. and with the way we have moved players out of our mid group .he could be our best mid.

 

[Corn69]

Its only family related .. if it was footy I think he would have signed by now. He has family complications and he feels it best for them back in WA im sure all at Geelong would understand that... of course it doesn't mean they let him go for zero either

Yeah it’s understandable but I think as soon as Brander and Oscar Allens names are thrown up, we’ll happily walk away. Geelong are better of trying to convince him to go to freo if they want a worthy deal.

 

[Off Tap]

Here's what I reckon will transpire if he doesn't re-sign with Geelong.

Eagles finish top 4 - earn pick 14ish
Dockers finish bottom 5 - earn Pick 5ish

Cats ask for first rounder plus more.

WCE say have our 1st.

Dockers come in and try their luck.

Tim Kelly says I'm only going to the Eagles.

Eagles say have our 1st.

Cats ask for more.

Eagles say no because if Kelly goes to the draft we'll pick him up for that anyhow.

Dockers won't use a top 5 pick in the draft for him.

Cats begrudgingly take Eagles first offer, Kelly off to the Eagles.

Cats board goes into meltdown.

 

[Scotland]

I really hope he re-signs with cats soon, doubt we’ll even consider trading Brander or Allen, both of whom grew up supporting the eagles. Heck I wouldn’t even mind if he went to Freo.

We've contracted them for 4 years each, they are part of our long term plan as Kelly is Geelong's. They aren't streak knives that's for sure. Allen is from West Perth so there is no pull of home anyway. Brander is from country Victoria so a smart agent would be getting in his ear about returning home, not being 4th in line etc.

 

[Turbocat]

I don't think any club would take him in the ND if that were the case, including Freo. Can't see Freo burning a potential top 10 pick on a guy who would have told them during trade week he didn't want to be there. But I also don't think it will happen. Will re-sign with Geelong or be traded to a WA club.

Its posturing .. a Ball situation (who was drafted to Pies with P30) would mean that he nominates a $$$ number..most by draft do not have 800 free in their cap..but a team that plans to have him would.. most could not draft him..and he would probably slip thru to an r2 pick like Ball...again posturing ..as all clubs would see the downside of this if it became the norm. Players all over the place just refusing to trade and nminating for draft..

 

[Scotland]

You can only nominate for the draft after trade week is done and dusted. Geelong wouldn't give him DFA status.

If he went into the draft and Geelong had a pick before West Coast, wouldn't Geelong pick him up?

I think the draft posturing is silly because he's got value. If Geelong let Kelly walk to the draft because they wanted a pick inside 10 and West Coast only had something 11-18 it would be a terrible list management decision.

 

[Turbocat]

Here's what I reckon will transpire if he doesn't re-sign with Geelong.

Eagles finish top 4 - earn pick 14ish
Dockers finish bottom 5 - earn Pick 5ish

Cats ask for first rounder plus more.

WCE say have our 1st.

Dockers come in and try their luck.

Tim Kelly says I'm only going to the Eagles.

Eagles say have our 1st.

Cats ask for more.

Eagles say no because if Kelly goes to the draft we'll pick him up for that anyhow.

Dockers won't use a top 5 pick in the draft for him.

Cats begrudgingly take Eagles first offer, Kelly off to the Eagles.

Cats board goes into meltdown.

Thats one version of an outcome .. I guess.. another is geelong finish below WC and take him with their first pick in the draft .. I doubt anyone would want that as an outcome so a deal would be arranged somehow. It would have elements of system collapse if it became the norm for clubs to take an insystem player thru the draft..

 

[Corn69]

If we do offer something, it’ll probably be our 2019 1st rounder and 2020 1st rounder plus some late picks. But then again Geelong will most likely ask for Brander and Allen in that package.

 

[Turbocat]

You can only nominate for the draft after trade week is done and dusted. Geelong wouldn't give him DFA status.

If he went into the draft and Geelong had a pick before West Coast, wouldn't Geelong pick him up?

I think the draft posturing is silly because he's got value. If Geelong let Kelly walk to the draft because they wanted a pick inside 10 and West Coast only had something 11-18 it would be a terrible list management decision.

Geelong take him in draft.. Its possible for sure.. its not an outcome that would be ideal or probable.. The Ball situation StK passed on him as it was obvious he wanted to move on..

I have no idea what Geelong would see as "the line" . They were willing to trade him last year for the 2R2 and a future R1 ..that at least gives one an idea of a starting point of achievable deal . WC have two R2's and a future picks of some sort . Both clubs have done this stuff 100's of time ..I really doubt they get bogged down to the degree that it lands in draft.. both will try to get something done early and see what else can be arranged.

 

[Turbocat]

If we do offer something, it’ll probably be our 2019 1st rounder and 2020 1st rounder plus some late picks. But then again Geelong will most likely ask for Brander and Allen in that package.

IMO... If you offered 2019 R1 (P18ish) and 2020 R1 (P*) .. Id say you would get some sort of future pick back say R3 or R2 and it would not involve those players.

 

[Off Tap]

Thats one version of an outcome .. I guess.. another is geelong finish below WC and take him with their first pick in the draft .. I doubt anyone would want that as an outcome so a deal would be arranged somehow. It would have elements of system collapse if it became the norm for clubs to take an insystem player thru the draft..

It would certainly fk Tim Kelly

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Geelong will receive West Coats first pick in 2019
Wets Coast will receive Tim Kelly

3rd or 2nd round steak knives may be thrown around, but that will be the crux of the deal.