Prediction Time Capsule 2023

[dogwatch]

It took a fair bit of computing power, so much in fact that there was a temporary brown-out in Canberra, but we finally have the results for the 2023 Time Capsule.

And the winner is … Smiley Boy !
Runner up was flamethrower and Selim (last year's winner) came third.

There were two sections – AFL Predictions and WB Predictions. In general we were pretty crap at both sections in 2023 but anyway the sectional scores and total scores went like this:



Flamethrower was the best in the AFL category while Sentinel blitzed the WB category but was hopeless in the AFL category. All the while Smiley Boy was lurking and did a Steven Bradbury to beat them both.

Anyway, all a bit of fun. I’ve now put up the Time Capsule thread for 2024 so there's a chance to redeem yourselves.

 

[dogwatch]

Here were the predictions, if you're game to look.

AFL SECTION



WB SECTION

 

[dogwatch]

Here’s a run down of how bad we were:

AFL SECTION

Premiers (4 pts) – nobody picked Collingwood. 12 went for the Dogs. Enuff said.

Runners Up (3 pts) – 9 picked Brisbane. One of our better efforts.

Wooden Spoon (2 pts) – 3 picked West Coast correctly but most went for North to do the threepeat.

Who drops out (2 pts) – this was “who out of the bookies’ top 8 won’t make the finals”. The correct answer was Richmond and Geelong which nobody got 100%, but a couple did pick Richmond. Points were awarded in proportion with your hit rate (so you couldn’t get a maximum score by sneakily picking all 8 to drop out).

Who surprises (2 pts) – this was the counterpoint to the previous one, i.e. who outside of the bookies’ top 8 will make the finals. The correct answer was St Kilda and GWS. Nobody guessed either of them. Instead we nearly all went for the WB and then a lot went for Freo or the Suns. So no points awarded at all for this question.

Brownlow (4 pts) – 18 of the 20 of us went for the Bont. We were robbed. One went for Miller and one for Clayton Oliver

13

Clayton Oliver

Age

26

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.8

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

18.4

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

6.3

5star

CL

6.3

5star

D

25.1

5star

K

11.1

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

19.2

5star

K

4.6

2star

HB

14.6

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

4.4

5star

CL

3.8

5star

(he won’t make that mistake again!) So no points awarded here.

Coleman (3 pts) – there was a fair spread of choices here. 4 went for J Cameron, 1 went for C Cameron and 3 just went for “Cameron” – probably having a sneaky bet each way. Four WB faithful picked Naughton and only 2 picked the actual Coleman winner, Curnow.

Rising Star (2 pts) – Ashcroft was the hot favourite here (9 picks). Then there was Sam Darcy (4) and even one for Arty Jones (good on yer, Fossie 32 !) But well done to the three who did correctly pick Harry Sheezel. I was sorely tempted to give a point to Leon for answering “WGAF” but I wouldn’t want to be seen encouraging that sort of thing now would I?

WESTERN BULLDOG SECTION

We were hopelessly optimistic.

Number of wins (3 pts) – Two people actually got this right (12 wins) but spoiled their copybook by also predicting we’d make the finals. Predictions ranged from 12 wins to 19 wins (LOL) with the median prediction being 16.

Ladder Position after H&A (3 pts) – nobody got the 3 points as everybody tipped us to play finals. However I gave a consolation point to selim for being nearest the pin with 8th.

How far would we get in the finals (1 pt) – this one was obviously a waste of space.

Charles Sutton Medal (3 pts for first, 2 points for 2nd and 2 points for 3rd, but you got a consolation point if your pick finished in the top three but not where you picked him) – 16 out of 20 picked the Bont. Five picked Libba for runner-up and another six picked him for either first or third. A special mention to Sentinel who picked the trifecta (Bont-Libba-Richards) and was the only one to pick Richards in their top 3.

Leading Goalkicker (3 pts for picking the player and bonus 1 point if you also picked the number of goals) – 19 out of 20 picked Naughton but everybody thought he’d kick more than 44. Maybe if he’d kicked straight … no let’s not go there. Anyway I gave a nearest-the-pin 0.5 points to stmookeyj who said 47 goals. Naughton’s actual tally was 44.

All Australians (2 pts) – correct answer was Bont and English. A lot got the Bont (19 of us) but not so many got English (only 7). Again results were calculated according to your hit rate. The more incorrect guesses you had the more your score depreciated.

Best First Year Player (2 pts) – trick question. Nobody had a chance with this one because O’Donnell wasn’t even on the WB list when entries closed. The spread of picks was pretty even: Clarke (4), A Jones (4), Gallagher (4), Darcy (3), Baker (2) and Busslinger (1)

Most Improved (2 pts) – nobody picked Tim English. Most popular predictions were Jamarra (7) and Scott (6).

Most Courageous (2 pts) – 5 courageous tipsters picked Liam Jones

19

Liam Jones

Age

33

Ht

199cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.4

2star

K

6.5

3star

HB

2.9

3star

M

4.3

4star

T

2.0

4star

MG

134.5

2star

D

7.6

2star

K

6.1

3star

HB

1.4

1star

M

4.1

4star

T

1.4

2star

MG

116.3

2star

D

9.4

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

2.0

2star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

. Nine went for the old standby, Libba.

Rising Star Nominations (1 pt) – two tipsters correctly said None. Sixteen out of 20 said Darcy and quite a few also had Arty Jones or Bedendo.

Biggest Win and Margin (1 point each) and Biggest Loss and Margin (1 point each) – nobody got any points here. The problem was that our biggest win was against a side expected to go well (Richmond) and our biggest loss was against a side expected to struggle (St Kilda). In fact Nat Fyfe picked St Kilda as our biggest win and Richmond as our biggest loss. I didn’t know whether to give Nat a point for irony or to deduct a point for getting it so arse about. In the end he got what everybody else got. Zilch.

Final Membership Tally (3 pts) – I gave 3 points for anyone who got within 100 of the final tally of 55,229 (nobody) and 1 point for anyone within 500 of it. Only two got within 500 – Bulldog Muscle and Jeff 1975.

How many goals will Lobb kick (1 pt) – again we were way too optimistic here. The median was 33.5 but Lobb only kicked 24. Only two people picked less than that. As they were so close with their prediction of 23, both Leon and Jeff 1975 got half a point for nearest the pin.

Who will be off the list at the end of 2023? (5 points) – you got up to two points for guessing how many would be off and up to 3 points for the proportion of your picks you got right. It then just became a computational challenge but Excel came to the rescue. The highest score recorded was 3.89 which was awarded to Doggies7 flamethrower and Smiley Boy (they each picked 4 and got them all correct) but special mention to Sentinel who picked that we'd offload 8 players (we actually offloaded 9). Unfortunately he only got 5 of the 8 correct so he only got 3.65 pts. Foxman98 was also worth a mention picking us to offload 6 players and getting 5 of them right. He got 3.83 points for that.

 

[dogwatch]

And here are all the Time Capsule/Nostradamus winners that I have a record of. I'll see if I can find the winners for the missing years.

2012 - Walsh Bay (on a countback in an 11-way tie)
2013 - ?
2014 - jumpingj (no idea who this person was, may have been deleted from BF in the last decade?)
2015 - Mattdougie
2016 - Igloo and Wizard17 (tied)
2017 - ?
2018 - ?
2019 - Kermit and Dogs_r_barking (tied)
2020 - Yojimbo
2021 - Bro_Pro and dogwatch (tied)
2022 - selim
2023 - Smiley Boy

 

[dogwatch]

OK I found some more time capsule/prediction threads, some even going back to 2003!

When I get a chance I'll take a closer look ...

 

[stmookeyj]

and one for Clayton Oliver (he won’t make that mistake again!)

May have won the Downlow though....