Time to move Gold Coast suns to Tasmania.. Could we? Should we?

[Johnny Bananas]

This has never made sense to me. Everyone says Melbourne is flooded but a) Population is still growing and b) Demand is still there. A club like North or St Kilda who everyone seems to want to kill off still has far more support than a Giants, Lions, Suns etc.

It's about growth potential. Melbourne is growing faster than anywhere else in Australia, but 7% of Melbourne's growth (the share of total Melbourne club memberships that each of North, Saints and Bulldogs make up) is less than the growth of Western Sydney or SEQ. And 7% of Melbourne's population is a lot less than the population of either of those areas.

I don't believe in killing off any clubs (although I think some Melbourne clubs would be financially better off merging, so they could be the size of a powerhouse club rather than a minnow. But that won't happen). I'm just saying, there's a reason why the AFL will try their best not to kill off the expansion teams, the potential reward is greater than what the Melbourne minnows could ever become.

 

[Run n Spread]

It's about growth potential. Melbourne is growing faster than anywhere else in Australia, but 7% of Melbourne's growth (the share of total Melbourne club memberships that each of North, Saints and Bulldogs make up) is less than the growth of Western Sydney or SEQ. And 7% of Melbourne's population is a lot less than the population of either of those areas.

I don't believe in killing off any clubs (although I think some Melbourne clubs would be financially better off merging, so they could be the size of a powerhouse club rather than a minnow. But that won't happen). I'm just saying, there's a reason why the AFL will try their best not to kill off the expansion teams, the potential reward is greater than what the Melbourne minnows could ever become.

Rewards and growth is still based on media revenue mainly. Have the Giants and Suns made much growth in terms of support, grass root clubs etc. Suns have made some but is overshaddowed by their poor results (also have part cannibalised Brisbanes support) GWS appear to be battling still. (e.g. Made the GF and couldn't sell off their member allocated tickets).

 

[Colonial]

Rewards and growth is still based on media revenue mainly. Have the Giants and Suns made much growth in terms of support, grass root clubs etc. Suns have made some but is overshaddowed by their poor results (also have part cannibalised Brisbanes support) GWS appear to be battling still. (e.g. Made the GF and couldn't sell off their member allocated tickets).

Media deal jumped rather largely straight after the expansion of I remember rightly.

Grassroots are growing more than “some” and considering we started with zero support 8 years ago I would say there is growth there as well.
Sponsorships has the Giants as 5th highest in the league.

Freo also didn’t sell their Gf allocation if I remember rightly.
Pretty easy though to sell out the allocation when you get an automatic home state GF every year.


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[Johnny Bananas]

Rewards and growth is still based on media revenue mainly. Have the Giants and Suns made much growth in terms of support, grass root clubs etc. Suns have made some but is overshaddowed by their poor results (also have part cannibalised Brisbanes support) GWS appear to be battling still. (e.g. Made the GF and couldn't sell off their member allocated tickets).

Of course it's mainly based on media revenue. GWS in particular were effectively starting from nothing, the growth has been huge in that respect. Both expansion teams are 30-year investments, we should expect them to have low membership numbers at least until kids that have grown up with those clubs become full adults.

 

[Walshawk]

The AFL would lose a lot more money in Tasmania since unlike the Gold Coast Tasmania is not really growing in terms of population. Tasmania also splits its small population across two cities that are no where near each other.

They wouldn’t lose any money in Tasmania. They already love footy and crowds and membership would be double GC day one.

 

[GC2015]

People seem to forget that the AFL have been trying to reduce the amount of Melbourne-based clubs in the league since it went national (Remember, Fitzroy were ready to move to Brisbane in 1986) and have shown zero appetite towards removing clubs from Queensland or New South Wales. In times of hardship, the AFL have attempted to strike and this is evidenced by moving Fitzroy to Brisbane for a 'merger' when they went bankrupt in '96 and offering the world to North Melbourne in '08 in an attempt to relocate them to the Gold Coast. Port Adelaide were also swimming in debt in 2008 but did the AFL ever contemplate moving them to the Gold Coast? The answer is no because that didn't service their greater goal of less teams in the oversaturated Melbourne market.

The truth of the matter is that Tasmania's best chance of entering the league involves removing a club from the oversaturated market that is Melbourne. If the AFL desperately wanted Tasmania in the league, they would already have a team. Don't fool yourself into thinking the AFL have thought about letting Tasmania enter the AFL purely because 'they deserve a team'. This is a business and they are going to continue to make business decisions that are in their best interests.

 

[Our Game]

It will depend on what the AFL/Clubs finances look like at the end of the pandemic. They may want to cut GC and relocate ST kilda - there is about 50 Million saved in one year

 

[Johnny Bananas]

It will depend on what the AFL/Clubs finances look like at the end of the pandemic. They may want to cut GC and relocate ST kilda - there is about 50 Million saved in one year

And at least 50 million lost by voiding the current TV deal, probably more. The AFL should be clinging to that deal like a lifesaver ring right now, which necessitates 9 games per round. If it gets voided by the networks the way Nine is trying to do to the NRL, then all bets are off and consolidation might occur.

 

[Gibbke]

This is where we disagree. That "dividend" belongs to the clubs anyway, they create that TV money. It's been shown by BringBackTorps that the value of the 9th game in extra TV money marginally exceeds the allocation that the expansion clubs have collectively received over the past few years, meaning they are paying their own way, with the prospect of bigger returns to come if the expansion clubs take off.

No arguments with the 9th team rationale. It's not marginal either, the rights doubled with expansion. $200m for each franchise for a billion dollar rise is more than a doubled profit, which is successful business no matter how you look at it. I said: "If money was the be all and end all, this scenario where more than half of the teams need the dividends to stay in the black wouldn't be tolerated" - more as a dig against the Murdochs of this world than a position of viewpoint (which I certainly don't share). Super League proved conclusively that when push comes to shove, and profit is lined up against a club's "rights", those rights go out the window. Dumped South Sydney, 6 merged and 5 axed franchises will tell you all about that. We have seen smaller sports rationalise and axe teams against various viability criteria, and of the three big sports in Australia - cricket, RL and Aussie Rules - two have undergone huge structural and financial changes this century which have involved pushing associated franchises and states into new places and situations kicking and screaming. Aussie Rules had all that before in the 1980's, but we'll ignore that because the level of professionalism wasn't anything like this generation and it's probably moot. However, all three sports are now facing arguably the greatest tests of their modern existence, because during our times nothing until now has actually stopped teams playing and money flowing, not since WW2...

I think a fair few "it's our money, we earned it" bleats will fall on deaf ears should it get to a point where sport is looking for white knights...

 

[Tasmanian saint]

Many reasons people dont go the game here at metricon, transport links and ticket prices the two big ones. Most of the empty seats you see on tv on outer wing are upwards of $50 each.
not like the mcg and marvel with bays and bays of $20 GA areas

That sounds crazy who comes up with those prices the afl - suns or is it stadium management ?

 

[Billy ray]

That sounds crazy who comes up with those prices the afl - suns or is it stadium management ?

I would say the afl and suns. They’ve followed the perth and adelaide models. Which is nuts.

 

[Tasmanian saint]

I would say the afl and suns. They’ve followed the perth and adelaide models. Which is nuts.

Yeah definitely is I remember hearing the suns had a pretty bad stadium deal to that might be a reason to try cover costs

 

[madmug]

Yeah definitely is I remember hearing the suns had a pretty bad stadium deal to that might be a reason to try cover costs

Whatever they are, its the cost of doing business in a 'non traditional' footy state.

Pointless complaining about it.

 

[Billy ray]

The stadium deal is much better now. And in fact the suns get a piece of the pie for concerts now. Eg queen concert in february

but still they persist with only a small portion of the ground as being GA - on the same side of ground as tv cameras hence that is usually full but not visible on tv so crowd figures are repeatedly argued against when released

they really need to make the whole lower level GA.

 

[Aussie in exile]

The AFL persisted with the Swans when logically it was time to give up. Now you want to eliminate the Suns at an early stage in what was always the long game.

The biggest boast to the Swans was the Rugby League Super League war. The suns won't have that luxury

 

[Colonial]

The biggest boast to the Swans was the Rugby League Super League war. The suns won't have that luxury

The boost was all in the timing. Swans making their 1st Grand Final as “Sydney” at the same time as the SL War.

Have you seen how league is going/seen at the moment?

AFL in a much better position to ride this out.


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[Gibbke]

The biggest boast to the Swans was the Rugby League Super League war. The suns won't have that luxury

The Suns instead have an AFL fully committed to making sure they stay fully funded because of the tv rights...they are in a far better position than the Swans were when going into an equivalent period of hardship for rugby league...

 

[Johnny Bananas]

The biggest boast to the Swans was the Rugby League Super League war. The suns won't have that luxury

I think they'll have an incredibly similar luxury if the NRL can't or won't bail out the Titans and they go bust. And the NRL are fully aware that letting the Titans go bust will hand the Gold Coast into the AFL's lap, but they're a lot less able to ride out this present crisis if the government don't step in to help them.

 

[Aussie in exile]

I think they'll have an incredibly similar luxury if the NRL can't or won't bail out the Titans and they go bust. And the NRL are fully aware that letting the Titans go bust will hand the Gold Coast into the AFL's lap, but they're a lot less able to ride out this present crisis if the government don't step in to help them.

Zero chance of the NRL letting the Titans fold i would have thought.
My money's on the Suns being relocated within 3 years as the AFL just can't keep pumping $25million + into them every year for next to nothing in return

 

[Colonial]

Zero chance of the NRL letting the Titans fold i would have thought.
My money's on the Suns being relocated within 3 years as the AFL just can't keep pumping $25million + into them every year for next to nothing in return

To get funding for the stadium and facilities as well as other grassroots programs the AFL would of had to of signed a contract to keep the Suns or a club in the Gold Coast for x amount of years otherwise surely the government wouldn’t of spent the money.


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[Johnny Bananas]

Zero chance of the NRL letting the Titans fold i would have thought.

They may not have a choice. The solvency of the entire league is at stake right now and some hard decisions will have to be made, particularly when you considered Nine wants to tear up the NRL broadcasting deal. I can't see the NRL having 16 clubs in a year or two.

My money's on the Suns being relocated within 3 years as the AFL just can't keep pumping $25million + into them every year for next to nothing in return

You're an NRL fan first and foremost, and I don't believe you're thinking objectively about this. The AFL earns at least 50 million per year from having a 9th game, which is enough to pay for Gold Coast and GWS both. Until that TV deal is voided or expires, there is no chance of the AFL moving the Suns, because the deal is also predicated on two teams in Queensland.

 

[Aussie in exile]

They may not have a choice. The solvency of the entire league is at stake right now and some hard decisions will have to be made, particularly when you considered Nine wants to tear up the NRL broadcasting deal. I can't see the NRL having 16 clubs in a year or two.


You're an NRL fan first and foremost, and I don't believe you're thinking objectively about this. The AFL earns at least 50 million per year from having a 9th game, which is enough to pay for Gold Coast and GWS both. Until that TV deal is voided or expires, there is no chance of the AFL moving the Suns, because the deal is also predicated on two teams in Queensland.

Wrong and wrong

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Wrong and wrong

Do have any reasoning for this, or is it just an assertion?

 

[GC2015]

Zero chance of the NRL letting the Titans fold i would have thought.

The Titans are privately owned these days, right? Do the owners have deep enough pockets survive the coronavirus crisis?

 

[Johnny Bananas]

The Titans are privately owned these days, right? Do the owners have deep enough pockets survive the coronavirus crisis?

They're owned by car dealers. Can't imagine that industry is doing well at the moment. Apparently they've been planning to build a leagues club in Oxenford, not sure if they've broken ground but you'd expect that to be shelved now.