To snag a flag, are we better off losing to Geelong in the QF?

[Gone Critical]

Why not take it a step further and ask yourself how often in the last 6 years did a Qualifying Final loser win the flag? Once.

Better question is how often did a QF winner not win the flag. Answer 2 out of 6 since the change. Dogs 2016 came from 7th, never been done and almost certainly happened only because of the pre finals bye. Tigers of 2020 the other.

In the 10 years before 1 out of 10, Hawks 2015

So 10% before the change going on the 10 years leading up v 33% since the change. This is a smaller sample size again but its already a worrying trend. History of the game is 1st and 2nd teams win most flags with the 3rd team occasionally getting one. No team from 4th won in the days of the final 4, not sure if ever done since. Adelaide won from 5th once with a stupid finals system, after losing 1st week, and AFL closed that loophole immediately. Didnt wait 6 years. Now we have a 7th team getting a flag (which is a big anomaly) and a 3rd team who lost a QF. Only 6 years but already showing a worrying change from whats happened in the past

Reckon its good for us this year. We aint the best team but if we get the right run we just might snaffle it. Bye should be dropped though.

 

[Pie thon]

Better off winning
I think the extra week break will suit us as a fast finisher better
We can play at a higher intensity at earlier stages of the game, like when we played GWS the week after the bye

 

[Pie eyed]

We need someone to knock Geelong out for us.

On this specific point...Why don't we do it?
On the main topic of the thread....
If Collingwood beat Geelong in the next match the footy world will tilt off it's axis.

Pies v Geebung Handbaggers in the Granny with a Pies win.

Late but sweet revenge for 2011 and the beginning of a dynasty which will make Ming look like just another name in the chinese phone book.

 

[jonbe54]

In this specific point...Why don't we do it?
On the main topic of the thread....
If Collingwood beat Geelong in the next match the footy world will tilt off it's axis.

Pies v Geebung Handbaggers in the Granny with a Pies win.

Late but sweet revenge for 2011 and the beginning of a dynasty which will make Ming look like just another name in the chinese phone book.

No argument but for me it's about beating the best there is on our own terms.

We did it in 2010 and to the same team - it means so much more to beat the best.

 

[jmac70]

Just win the next three. Simples.

 

[Pie eyed]

No argument but for me it's about beating the best there is on our own terms.

We did it in 2010 and to the same team - it means so much more to beat the best.

Zactly,

We beat them this match then have to beat whoever makes their way to the Prelim, beat them and then the Granny.
Win that and by definition you beat the best.

 

[jonbe54]

Zactly,

We beat them this match then have to beat whoever makes their way to the Prelim, beat them and then the Granny.
Win that and by definition you beat the best.

I've been watching the Pies since 1964 and those first three quarters when we ripped the heart out of the 'unbeatable' reigning premiers are what I consider to be the finest of all I've seen.

We quite literally THRASHED them.

 

[Drought Break]

That Tom Longeron certainly ripped Travis a new arse a few times I remember that much about him.

Yep. 2011 GF Cloke started of on fire. Barely got a touch in the second half when we needed him most

 

[sideswipe]

Better question is how often did a QF winner not win the flag. Answer 2 out of 6 since the change. Dogs 2016 came from 7th, never been done and almost certainly happened only because of the pre finals bye. Tigers of 2020 the other.

In the 10 years before 1 out of 10, Hawks 2015

So 10% before the change going on the 10 years leading up v 33% since the change. This is a smaller sample size again but its already a worrying trend. History of the game is 1st and 2nd teams win most flags with the 3rd team occasionally getting one. No team from 4th won in the days of the final 4, not sure if ever done since. Adelaide won from 5th once with a stupid finals system, after losing 1st week, and AFL closed that loophole immediately. Didnt wait 6 years. Now we have a 7th team getting a flag (which is a big anomaly) and a 3rd team who lost a QF. Only 6 years but already showing a worrying change from whats happened in the past

Reckon its good for us this year. We aint the best team but if we get the right run we just might snaffle it. Bye should be dropped though.

The question of the bye is different to your “yes” on the answer of us losing a QF to enhance our flag chances.

Glad to see you are backing away from that.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[jmac70]

The question of the bye is different to your “yes” on the answer of us losing a QF to enhance our flag chances.

Glad to see you are backing away from that.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Did you watch Peter McKenna on the Front Bar?

 

[sr36]

Its not a question of which teams we play its the disadvantage of only playing 1 game in 3 weeks which appears to have hobbled the chances of the QF winner to win the PF. even on small numbers a change from 90% to 41 % should raise alarm bells.

You have to win the PF to continue and our best route will be lose to Geel, beat Freo/Dogs and then line up against Syd/melb who hopefully have lost their edge a lttle through inactivity while we are cherry ripe after a rest then 2 games

Mathematically, you seem to be assuming that losing the qualifying final always results to winning the semi.

If looking it at through a probability lense, you need to multiply the 59% of teams who win the prelim after winning the second semi by the percentage of teams who lose the qualifying final and then win the second semi. Your theory only holds if the result is bigger than 41%

Either way, I'll be barracking for the Pies against Geelong.

 

[jmac70]

Mathematically, you seem to be assuming that losing the qualifying final always results to winning the semi.

If looking it at through a probability lense, you need to multiply the 59% of teams who win the prelim after winning the second semi by the percentage of teams who lose the qualifying final and then win the second semi. Your theory only holds if the result is bigger than 41%

Either way, I'll be barracking for the Pies against Geelong.

How many grand final winners have lost the qualifying final?

 

[sr36]

How many grand final winners have lost the qualifying final?

Gone Critical is Collingwood through and through. He's found the path that reduces our chances of winning the flag and maximises our chances of being runners up.

 

[sideswipe]

Did you watch Peter McKenna on the Front Bar?

Yes. Loved it.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[FromTheBoundaryLine]

Definite no from me. Beat them next week and move on. After all we’re only talking a mini-streak of 3 games now to take the flag.

 

[Pistol Night]

How many grand final winners have lost the qualifying final?

Brisbane in 2003.

 

[Pistol Night]

We'll run the old flogs off their feet in the last quarter.

 

[Anzacday]

Think this settles it.
PS: No pressure Cats…

 

[nahnah]

Extra game = increase chance of having best player injured. Don't see the logic, poll results not a surprise. Winning the prelim and winning the flag are two different things !

 

[Oldmangrumpy]

No, win we most likely play swans to make the gf
Lions beat tiges, swans beat lions( hopefully it is a lions win for pf)
Dees beat swans then cats.
Meet demons in gf, we have good history over demons recently.

 

[Pistol Night]

Think this settles it.
PS: No pressure Cats…

Kittywobbles

 

[Oldmangrumpy]

Think this settles it.
PS: No pressure Cats…

Love it, fck em!
Go pies

 

[Pie eyed]

Did you watch Peter McKenna on the Front Bar?

McKenna was awesome. Still a *ing legend at 73.

 

[Ginnieboy]

If we beat the Cat’s it’s ours to lose, I’m sure we can come up with some extraordinary way to do that.

 

[Gone Critical]

Mathematically, you seem to be assuming that losing the qualifying final always results to winning the semi.

If looking it at through a probability lense, you need to multiply the 59% of teams who win the prelim after winning the second semi by the percentage of teams who lose the qualifying final and then win the second semi. Your theory only holds if the result is bigger than 41%

Either way, I'll be barracking for the Pies against Geelong.

Agree I want to win next week. Its just speculation based on us realistically being the weakest team in the top4. Beating Geelong in the QF would be fantastic but some of me is thinking maybe we are a better chance to go all the way if we lose. Would stand a good chance of beating either Dogs/Freo next week and I would rather enter a PF with 2 straight games behind us.

I think we are a long shot to win the flag but losing the QF and then winning the SF is probably the path that gives us the best chance to win the PF.