Recommitted Tom De Koning [Signed until 2025]

[PrisonBars4life]

Yet you argue the polar opposite on the Sav thread...interesting.

One was a late round draft pick who has shown no ability to be an AFL player until 11 games ago.

The other is a first round pick who has played in the same position his entire career and is showing moderate competence.

Personally, I believe TDK is worth 'a bit' more than Esava but they will both likely yield 2nd round picks if either leaves. I do however reject the idea that Ruckman aren't worth much in a trade because they are not valued highly in a draft capacity. As I stated, the two things are seperate. You draft on potential, which for ruckman is years away. You trade for known quantity. We traded a 1st + 2nd for Paddy Ryder who, at the time, was a decent ruckman with a year long suspension hanging over his head - a Essendon still whinge that we ripped them off. Jackson was 2x1sts. 2 ruckman have been drafted in the top 5 in the past 4 years.

So we can see that top tier Ruckman are worth top 5 picks and 2xfirsts making the comment I responded to completely wrong.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

One was a late round draft pick who has shown no ability to be an AFL player until 11 games ago.

The other is a first round pick who has played in the same position his entire career and is showing moderate competence.

Personally, I believe TDK is worth 'a bit' more than Esava but they will both likely yield 2nd round picks if either leaves. I do however reject the idea that Ruckman aren't worth much in a trade because they are not valued highly in a draft capacity. As I stated, the two things are seperate. You draft on potential, which for ruckman is years away. You trade for known quantity. We traded a 1st + 2nd for Paddy Ryder who, at the time, was a decent ruckman with a year long suspension hanging over his head - a Essendon still whinge that we ripped them off. Jackson was 2x1sts. 2 ruckman have been drafted in the top 5 in the past 4 years.

So we can see that top tier Ruckman are worth top 5 picks and 2xfirsts making the comment I responded to completely wrong.

Top tier ruckman....

TDK thread....

I've seen enough internet for today

 

[Shadow89]

One was a late round draft pick who has shown no ability to be an AFL player until 11 games ago.

The other is a first round pick who has played in the same position his entire career and is showing moderate competence.

Personally, I believe TDK is worth 'a bit' more than Esava but they will both likely yield 2nd round picks if either leaves. I do however reject the idea that Ruckman aren't worth much in a trade because they are not valued highly in a draft capacity. As I stated, the two things are seperate. You draft on potential, which for ruckman is years away. You trade for known quantity. We traded a 1st + 2nd for Paddy Ryder who, at the time, was a decent ruckman with a year long suspension hanging over his head - a Essendon still whinge that we ripped them off. Jackson was 2x1sts. 2 ruckman have been drafted in the top 5 in the past 4 years.

So we can see that top tier Ruckman are worth top 5 picks and 2xfirsts making the comment I responded to completely wrong.

I think it's fair to view things that way, and I actually respect how you've come to your conclusion rather than 'that's my opinion and it's correct...so fight me' - so kudos for that.

With that said, a few things:

1. In his 6 years in the game, TDK has displayed nothing to show that he will be anything like either Ryder or Jackson was/is. The scope for development is there, but even in his contract year this year, he's still developing.

2. TDK was not a first round draft pick, and was taken at Pick 30 in the 2017 draft. Esava was taken at Pick 43 in the previous year's draft, as a reference point. I feel you may be confusing him with SDK, who was taken at Pick 19 in 2019.

3. Just because a couple of absolutely elite ruckmen commanded high trade returns, doesn't ostensibly mean that it is true for all ruckmen in general. This is a fallacy, given the high amount of ruckmen that have moved clubs, that haven't commanded high picks. In any case, TDK hasn't displayed he's 'elite' as either a forward or ruck - so doesn't factor into that conversation. He may yet and there could be scope, but he hasn't thus far.

*******************************

The reason I called you out on this, is because you didn't limit the discussion to rucks in general when stating KPP development - which Esava absolutely is. TDK is a hybrid forward/ruck who has played more ruck time this year, and Sav is a former KPF who has now been turning into an effective KPD and has shown a bit in that role - hence other clubs now looking at him as a prospect. Either way, they're probably at similar points in their career, and the second half of the year will likely determine their worth.

As it stands I do agree though, that a mid 20's pick for either of them (if Sav continues his upward trajectory in his new role), is probably the likely valuation point. First rounders for either of them given the similar comparisons, is highly fanciful and unlikely to happen.

In any case though, if you view TDK as a developing prospect that is now showing something, you probably would have to view Sav in the same light - given they've both been fringe, and they're both now becoming more cemented in their teams, entering the prime of their careers.

 

[foxdog50]

And why on earth would Carlton accept an F2 if the media reports are true that other teams are willing to stump up a first rounder and long term contracts?

Could blow out to about pick 45 with the amount of NGA and F/S prospects in next years draft

There could be other clubs offering more in $$$ than Geelong, and longer contracts, that is possible...
But doesn't mean he wants to go to the club thats offering more money and longer contact..
He might want to come to Geelong for less money and the lifestyle of living in Geelong..
Geelong has for years don't over pay there players.
Look at the Herald Sun top 100
Dangerfield was at 83
Stewart was at 80
Jeremy Cameron at 8

Compare to Carlton has 8 in the top 100... .

 

[PrisonBars4life]

I think it's fair to view things that way, and I actually respect how you've come to your conclusion rather than 'that's my opinion and it's correct...so fight me' - so kudos for that.

With that said, a few things:

1. In his 6 years in the game, TDK has displayed nothing to show that he will be anything like either Ryder or Jackson was/is. The scope for development is there, but even in his contract year this year, he's still developing.

2. TDK was not a first round draft pick, and was taken at Pick 30 in the 2017 draft. Esava was taken at Pick 43 in the previous year's draft, as a reference point. I feel you may be confusing him with SDK, who was taken at Pick 19 in 2019.

3. Just because a couple of absolutely elite ruckmen commanded high trade returns, doesn't ostensibly mean that it is true for all ruckmen in general. This is a fallacy, given the high amount of ruckmen that have moved clubs, that haven't commanded high picks. In any case, TDK hasn't displayed he's 'elite' as either a forward or ruck - so doesn't factor into that conversation. He may yet and there could be scope, but he hasn't thus far.

*******************************

The reason I called you out on this, is because you didn't limit the discussion to rucks in general when stating KPP development - which Esava absolutely is. TDK is a hybrid forward/ruck who has played more ruck time this year, and Sav is a former KPF who has now been turning into an effective KPD and has shown a bit in that role - hence other clubs now looking at him as a prospect. Either way, they're probably at similar points in their career, and the second half of the year will likely determine their worth.

As it stands I do agree though, that a mid 20's pick for either of them (if Sav continues his upward trajectory in his new role), is probably the likely valuation point. First rounders for either of them given the similar comparisons, is highly fanciful and unlikely to happen.

In any case though, if you view TDK as a developing prospect that is now showing something, you probably would have to view Sav in the same light - given they've both been fringe, and they're both now becoming more cemented in their teams, entering the prime of their careers.

I largely agree with that. Both prospects. I wouldn't ever pay any more than about pick 25 for players at their age that weren't already lock first 22 players with several years of form. I made a comment on the other thread that I don't trust 1 year form at all. Seen far too many players suddenly become really good after 3-6 years ... for 1 year ... then drop off and never go on. I feel like TDK's floor is higher than Ratugolea's as he's played more consistent football over the past several years. You could broadly lock in a 'well as long as he doesn't do an ACL at least he'll be okay for us' level of ability. I also think his agility makes him likely to become more valuable in the future as ball speed becomes more of a thing. To be fair Ratugolea is agile as well, but he has shown virtually no aptitude for other roles where that agility should have seen him shine.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

There could be other clubs offering more in $$$ than Geelong, and longer contracts, that is possible...
But doesn't mean he wants to go to the club thats offering more money and longer contact..
He might want to come to Geelong for less money and the lifestyle of living in Geelong..
Geelong has for years don't over pay there players.
Look at the Herald Sun top 100
Dangerfield was at 83
Stewart was at 80
Jeremy Cameron at 8

Compare to Carlton has 8 in the top 100... .

So now we believe the herald sun and the media reports? Or only when it suits?

 

[Warhorse]

“The second biggest gap on record”: The stark gap between Carlton's ruckmen

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

“The second biggest gap on record”: The stark gap between Carlton's ruckmen

Setting records as a young ruck. Pick 1 should do it

 

[foxdog50]

So now we believe the herald sun and the media reports? Or only when it suits?

So Geelong over pay then do they? Geelong is known for years that they don't over pay there players... or do you want to not believe that if that suits you?

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

So Geelong over pay then do they? Geelong is known for years that they don't over pay there players... or do you want to not believe that if that suits you?

You only listen to the media when they tell you Geelong don’t overpay for players.

But when they tell you Tom has offers of 700k+ for 7+ years it must be made up.

 

[foxdog50]

You only listen to the media when they tell you Geelong don’t overpay for players.

But when they tell you Tom has offers of 700k+ for 7+ years it must be made up.

But haven't Geelong offered the same as Carlton... So does that mean Carlton is over paying him than if Geelong paying the same.. You must belive what ever you want in the media

 

[CatToTheFuture]

You only listen to the media when they tell you Geelong don’t overpay for players.

But when they tell you Tom has offers of 700k+ for 7+ years it must be made up.

The media also says Geelong isn't offering him that

 

[MisterMarcus]

You only listen to the media when they tell you Geelong don’t overpay for players.

But when they tell you Tom has offers of 700k+ for 7+ years it must be made up.

I'm not sure what the argument is here.

If it's 700+ for 7+ years then it's probably not from us. We refused to match a similar offer for Hopper last trade period despite (allegedly) being keen on him.

 

[foxdog50]

I'm not sure what the argument is here.

If it's 700+ for 7+ years then it's probably not from us. We refused to match a similar offer for Hopper last trade period despite (allegedly) being keen on him.

Yeah but he thinks Geelong over pays there players, his got no idea how Geelong pays there players

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Yeah but he thinks Geelong over pays there players, his got no idea how Geelong pays there players

Waterfront pubs and property?

All clubs pay a minimum of 95% of the cap. For every great player you are underpaying there is probably a player in the reserves you are overpaying.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

The media also says Geelong isn't offering him that

So the media is good? Or no good?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

So the media is good? Or no good?

Well, I don't believe the media in the case of the upper end of reported offers for tdk because it doesn't make sense. I do believe the media around the offers made by both Carlton and Geelong because they do make sense.

 

[Shai]

You only listen to the media when they tell you Geelong don’t overpay for players.

But when they tell you Tom has offers of 700k+ for 7+ years it must be made up.

Is TDK the next Grundy?

Geelong don't do that and as much as I like the connection we've also brought in a future ruck in Conway.

An in between ruck doesn't make sense.

 

[Shadow89]

Waterfront pubs and property?

All clubs pay a minimum of 95% of the cap. For every great player you are underpaying there is probably a player in the reserves you are overpaying.

I don't think you've thought this through entirely.

Perhaps, just perhaps, you can pay players less across the board and have a sliding cap that accommodates everyone in a more egalitarian way - rather than overpaying some players and underpaying others, to balance out your cap.

I know this concept is foreign to your club, but it seems to have worked well for us for a decade and half and counting.

But keep throwing out arguments about 'waterfronts pubs and property'...when you're actually a club who was notorious for that kind of behaviour.

People in glass houses and all that

 

[foxdog50]

Waterfront pubs and property?

All clubs pay a minimum of 95% of the cap. For every great player you are underpaying there is probably a player in the reserves you are overpaying.

Just like Carlton does down Lygon Street?

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

It's amazing how many half-arsed and disinterested Cats supporters there are on this thread.

If you reckon he's not that good, why don't you just go and offer Jonny Ceglar another 5 years...

 

[geelong_crazy26]

I largely agree with that. Both prospects. I wouldn't ever pay any more than about pick 25 for players at their age that weren't already lock first 22 players with several years of form. I made a comment on the other thread that I don't trust 1 year form at all. Seen far too many players suddenly become really good after 3-6 years ... for 1 year ... then drop off and never go on. I feel like TDK's floor is higher than Ratugolea's as he's played more consistent football over the past several years. You could broadly lock in a 'well as long as he doesn't do an ACL at least he'll be okay for us' level of ability. I also think his agility makes him likely to become more valuable in the future as ball speed becomes more of a thing. To be fair Ratugolea is agile as well, but he has shown virtually no aptitude for other roles where that agility should have seen him shine.

So you think the player who is now 24yo that has failed to deliver anything and is playing the same position has more upside than the 24yo who has been moved to a different position and is showing high quality footy?? Very interesting view

 

[STPer18]

IF the boy wants in at Geelong you better forget about what you'll be getting for him. The way these things generally go is we get your player AND your best draft pick, and if you're not careful you might even find yourself paying half his wage for the privilege. That's the Andrew Mackie

Andrew Mackie

Age

41

Ht

193cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.2

5star

K

12.6

5star

HB

6.6

4star

M

5.7

5star

T

2.1

4star

MG

346.7

5star

No current season stats available

D

9.0

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

2.8

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.2

4star

specialty.

 

[aussierulesrules]

It's amazing how many half-arsed and disinterested Cats supporters there are on this thread.

If you reckon he's not that good, why don't you just go and offer Jonny Ceglar another 5 years...

Probably because they have no say in the decision making process at Geelong and are thus in no position to be offering anyone anything?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

It's amazing how many half-arsed and disinterested Cats supporters there are on this thread.

If you reckon he's not that good, why don't you just go and offer Jonny Ceglar another 5 years...

Ceglar is cooked. Flynn or Sweet would be preferable but TDK would probably help us lock in his brother longer term.