Recommitted Tom De Koning [Signed until 2025]

[bird_man]

But to be more fair, that wasn’t part of the discussion

Clearly it is. The poster I quoted said he plays when fit, which isn't always the case

 

[Benga]

Clearly it is. The poster I quoted said he plays when fit, which isn't always the case

No, clearly it isn’t.

“can't get a game in a bottom 8 side” was the discussion, which you then redirected to “clearly not the first choice as a ruck”.

He’s a ruck/fwd, it’s no slight on him to be not the first choice as stand alone ruck. Just as it’s not a slight on Jackson just because Darcy plays ruck ahead of him.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

You could have Pick 70...if 60 players were never available to you in the open draft for you to pick up, then you have Pick 10 of the available players.

The easier way to imagine it, is if there was no NGA/FS/Northern Academy players in the National draft at all... - the value wouldn't change of your draft pick...as all the clubs would have 'taken' the players off the board prior to the draft.

Yeah clubs can 'bid' but if a club wants their player, they get their player - so they never really were available to anyone else in the first place. I think this is what Jhye Clark 13 is trying to explain.

The compromised 2020 draft for example would have looked like this for the first two rounds:

Removed:

JUH
Braeden Campbell
Lachie Jones
Reef McInnes
Blake Coleman
Errol Gulden
Connor Downie
Josh Eyre
Samson Ryan

Open Draft:

1: Thilthorpe (2)
2: W. Phillips (3)
3. L. McDonald (4)
4. DGB (6)
5. E. Hollands (7)
6. N. Cox (8)
7. Perkins (9)
8. Z. Reid (10)
9. Pedlar (11)
10. Bruhn (12)
11. T. Powell (13)
12. Chapman (14)
13. Stone (15)
14. O. Henry (17)
15. Angwin (18)
16. F. Macrae (19)
17. Holmes (20)
18. Bowey (21)
19. Laurie (22)
20. B. Cook (25)
21. McLeod-Allison (26)
22. O'Driscoll (27)
23. S. Berry (28)
24. S. Mitchell (29)
25. Poulter (30)
26. McMahon (31)
27. S. Neale (33)
28. Rosman (34)
29. Lazzaro (36)
30. C. Durdin (37)
31. Rowe (38)
32. Carroll (41)
33. Spicer (42)

Original draft positions denoted in brackets.

It doesn't lessen the value of the draft pick, if those players were never available to begin with. Now of course rules have changed for NGA, but Northern Academies are still the biggest culprits, and they're not available to anyone.

Only exception to this is when clubs choose not to match - which is exceedingly rare, and only seems to happen maybe once have every few drafts, and often later in the draft - as was the case with Brisbane and Samson Ryan.

Which means the draft class is miles weaker and the draft picks hold less value.

The way I look at it is if if you have pick 8 and you think there are 10 A grade talents in the draft then it drops of to C graders then pick 8 is a great pick. If 4 of those 8 are FS and you won’t have access to them then pick 8 is a very poor pick.
There seems to be no more depth in drafts wether there are a heap of NG/FS or not so to remove them from the draft class just makes the draft weaker and the picks less valuable.

 

[Shadow89]

Which means the draft class is miles weaker and the draft picks hold less value.

The way I look at it is if if you have pick 8 and you think there are 10 A grade talents in the draft then it drops of to C graders then pick 8 is a great pick. If 4 of those 8 are FS and you won’t have access to them then pick 8 is a very poor pick.
There seems to be no more depth in drafts wether there are a heap of NG/FS or not so to remove them from the draft class just makes the draft weaker and the picks less valuable.

That makes absolutely no sense. Your Pick 8 would be Pick 4 in the open draft in this hypothetical.

It's not like you ever had access to those 4 players, there were only 4 players you could 'openly' access...so your Pick 8 becomes Pick 4. It's the same concept with players removed.

The only exception to this is when clubs like Sydney try and exploit loopholes to 'get ahead of the bid', but this has been changed in recent times - as we saw with both Ashcroft and Naicos in subsequent drafts.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

That makes absolutely no sense.

To dumb it down for you, like I said yesterday. If Reid wasn’t available at pick 1 because he was a FS would pick 1 still hold the same value as it does at the moment?

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

You could have Pick 70...if 60 players were never available to you in the open draft for you to pick up, then you have Pick 10 of the available players.

The easier way to imagine it, is if there was no NGA/FS/Northern Academy players in the National draft at all... - the value wouldn't change of your draft pick...as all the clubs would have 'taken' the players off the board prior to the draft.

Yeah clubs can 'bid' but if a club wants their player, they get their player - so they never really were available to anyone else in the first place. I think this is what Jhye Clark 13 is trying to explain.

The compromised 2020 draft for example would have looked like this for the first two rounds:

Removed:

JUH
Braeden Campbell
Lachie Jones
Reef McInnes
Blake Coleman
Errol Gulden
Connor Downie
Josh Eyre
Samson Ryan

Open Draft:

1: Thilthorpe (2)
2: W. Phillips (3)
3. L. McDonald (4)
4. DGB (6)
5. E. Hollands (7)
6. N. Cox (8)
7. Perkins (9)
8. Z. Reid (10)
9. Pedlar (11)
10. Bruhn (12)
11. T. Powell (13)
12. Chapman (14)
13. Stone (15)
14. O. Henry (17)
15. Angwin (18)
16. F. Macrae (19)
17. Holmes (20)
18. Bowey (21)
19. Laurie (22)
20. B. Cook (25)
21. McLeod-Allison (26)
22. O'Driscoll (27)
23. S. Berry (28)
24. S. Mitchell (29)
25. Poulter (30)
26. McMahon (31)
27. S. Neale (33)
28. Rosman (34)
29. Lazzaro (36)
30. C. Durdin (37)
31. Rowe (38)
32. Carroll (41)
33. Spicer (42)

Original draft positions denoted in brackets.

It doesn't lessen the value of the draft pick, if those players were never available to begin with. Now of course rules have changed for NGA, but Northern Academies are still the biggest culprits, and they're not available to anyone.

Only exception to this is when clubs choose not to match - which is exceedingly rare, and only seems to happen maybe once have every few drafts, and often later in the draft - as was the case with Brisbane and Samson Ryan.

Pretty much. The fact that people still can't grasp this is bewildering..

 

[bird_man]

No, clearly it isn’t.

“can't get a game in a bottom 8 side” was the discussion, which you then redirected to “clearly not the first choice as a ruck”.

He’s a ruck/fwd, it’s no slight on him to be not the first choice as stand alone ruck. Just as it’s not a slight on Jackson just because Darcy plays ruck ahead of him.

I wasn't quoting the guy that said "can't get a game in the bottom 8 side"

I was quoting the the guy that said "He plays when fit"

So clearly it was the discussion

Twice he's been left out this year when fit

Edit: three times actually

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

I wasn't quoting the guy that said "can't get a game in the bottom 8 side"

I was quoting the the guy that said "He plays when fit"

So clearly it was the discussion

Twice he's been left out this year when fit

But in a Carlton supporters fantasy he's worth a 1st round pick. They keeps playing duds like Silvagni in front of him ffs.

 

[Shadow89]

To dumb it down for you, like I said yesterday. If Reid wasn’t available at pick 1 because he was a FS would pick 1 still hold the same value as it does at the moment?

I wouldn't be using the words 'dumb it down' when you're the one who can't seem to grasp what I'm saying.

Yes, Pick 1 would still hold the same value...as he was never available to you...and none of these conversations around worth would have happened in the first place. Nick Watson would likely be the one everyone wanted. Or Zane Duursma. It's why Cadman was Pick 1 in the draft, and Ashcroft slid to 2...even though he was the consensus No. 1 pick all year by the length of the Flemington straight.

Had Ashcroft been selected at 1, Cadman still would have been Number 1 in the open draft, as he was the first player openly available. GWS gave up a lot to get him, even though Ashcroft was rated the better player a year. It's not difficult to understand.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I wouldn't be using the words 'dumb it down' when you're the one who can't seem to grasp what I'm saying.

Yes, Pick 1 would still hold the same value...as he was never available to you. Nick Watson would likely be the one everyone wanted. Or Xavier Duursma. It's why Cadman was Pick 1 in the draft, and Ashcroft slid to 2...even though he was the consensus No. 1 pick all year by the length of the Flemington straight.

Had Ashcroft been selected at 1, Cadman still would have been Number 1 in the open draft, as he was the first player available. It's not difficult to understand.

Yeh that’s just wrong.
teams would be offering the exact same now for pick 2 as 1 because apparently Watson holds as much value as Reid by that theory.

 

[Benga]

OMFG If you have a talent pool of 100 people, and 30 of that 100 is now unavailable to you then the pool you are selecting from is less desirable.
Therefore, the first pick from that crop IS ALSO LESS DESIRABLE

Wtaf am I reading here

 

[Shadow89]

Yeh that’s just wrong.
teams would be offering the exact same now for pick 2 as 1 because apparently Watson holds as much value as Reid by that theory.

OMFG If you have a talent pool of 100 people, and 30 of that 100 is now unavailable to you then the pool you are selecting from is less desirable.
Therefore, the first pick from that crop IS ALSO LESS DESIRABLE

Wtaf am I reading here

Ashcroft was far more valuable than Cadman, yet GWS wanted a KPF not a mid, so gave up a king's ransom to get Pick 1. This is because they planned all year without Ashcroft in mind. So they still gave up a lot to get in the position to draft Cadman...like they would have done had Ashcroft been available in the open draft.

If Reid was completely removed from the draft as a GWS Academy player for example, all clubs would be planning for who the other players are they consider rated...that are available to them on their draft board. The hype would build all year around the open draft players by Twomey and co., and the recruiters would all be vying to get Top 5 picks so they could select the best player available to them not excluded from the talent pool. They would put very little effort into focusing on someone like Reid, as they would know him going to GWS would be a foregone conclusion - and thus would plan differently.

It's why Nick Daicos and Will Ashcroft who were consensus Number 1 (or at least 2 not 4 in the case of Daicos), both respectively slid to their picks...because clubs didn't even consider them available to them at the time - and had different wants/needs.

You both can act all high and mighty all you like, pretending I'm an idiot - but the data supports me on this. JUH (next gen) Thilthorpe and W. Phillips were taken ahead of Nick Daicos, in the 2021 National Draft. Cadman was taken ahead of Ashcroft in the 2022 National Draft. If what you said were true, then both Naicos and Ashcroft would have gone at Pick 1 as consensus Number 1's, and the records wouldn't show the aforementioned.

Once clubs know a player is out of the open draft, they focus more heavily on players that are available to them - and place the higher priority on getting them in. We saw this with Cadman last year, and Nick Daicos sliding to 4 in 2021.

The allure of Pick 1 is for the club being able to draft the player that a club wants most. If a draft pool is compromised, then recruiters (people paid to do this and far more knowledgeable than any of us plebs on here), essentially remove these players from their draft boards and spend more time focused on those who they can actually recruit.

You're not removing 30 players from the draft pool, if those players were never even in the pool to begin with.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

OMFG If you have a talent pool of 100 people, and 30 of that 100 is now unavailable to you then the pool you are selecting from is less desirable.
Therefore, the first pick from that crop IS ALSO LESS DESIRABLE

Wtaf am I reading here

It’s making the point that by taking a player out of a draft class, makes the draft class weaker. (Draft picks less valuable)
Pick 1 holds so much value because you can get Reid not because it’s pick 1. If you could only get Watson at that pick it wouldn’t be anywhere near as valuable. Next season if you have pick 20 with so many NGa/FS you might get your 27th favourite player. It changes everything because you might rate the 20th player extremely highly but the 27th fairly lowly.

It’s like they think every draft is exactly the same and FS and NGA have just magically appeared in the talent pool.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Ashcroft was far more valuable than Cadman, yet GWS wanted a KPF not a mid, so gave up a king's ransom to get Pick 1. This is because they planned all year without Ashcroft in mind. So they still gave up a lot to get in the position to draft Cadman...like they would have done had Ashcroft been available in the open draft.

If Reid was completely removed from the draft as a GWS Academy player for example, all clubs would be planning for who the other players are they consider rated...that are available to them on their draft board. The hype would build all year around the open draft players by Twomey and co., and the recruiters would all be vying to get Top 5 picks so they could select the best player available to them not excluded from the talent pool. They would put very little effort into focusing on someone like Reid, as they would know him going to GWS would be a foregone conclusion - and thus would plan differently.

It's why Nick Daicos and Will Ashcroft who were consensus Number 1 (or at least 2 not 4 in the case of Daicos), both respectively slid to their picks...because clubs didn't even consider them available to them at the time - and had different wants/needs.

You both can act all high and mighty all you like, pretending I'm an idiot - but the data supports me on this. JUH (next gen) Thilthorpe and W. Phillips were taken ahead of Nick Daicos, in the 2021 National Draft. Cadman was taken ahead of Ashcroft in the 2022 National Draft. If what you said were true, then both Naicos and Ashcroft would have gone at Pick 1 as consensus Number 1's, and the records wouldn't show the aforementioned.

Once clubs know a player is out of the open draft, they focus more heavily on players that are available to them - and place the higher priority on getting them in. We saw this with Cadman last year, and Nick Daicos sliding to 4 in 2021.

The allure of Pick 1 is for the club being able to draft the player that a club wants most. If a draft pool is compromised, then recruiters (people paid to do this and far more knowledgeable than any of us plebs on here), essentially remove these players from their draft boards and spend more time focused on those who they can actually recruit.

You're not removing 30 players from the draft pool, if those players were never even in the pool to begin with.

It doesn’t work like that. 17 teams know they aren’t getting Reid, it doesn't make them then think Watson is worth as much as Reid because they know they can’t get Reid.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

If Pick 20 is going to get you access to the 50th best talent in the draft due to F/S and Academies it's not worth as much, doesn't matter if clubs give 2 ***** about whether they were ever accessible or not.

 

[Shadow89]

I've literally demonstrated with previous drafts how the data supports what I'm saying...yet you guys still just want to disagree with what I'm saying.

I'm not gonna bother, we're all at an impasse, see ya.

 

[Shadow89]

It doesn’t work like that. 17 teams know they aren’t getting Reid, it doesn't make them then think Watson is worth as much as Reid because they know they can’t get Reid.

That's literally what happened with Cadman last year.

 

[bird_man]

If Pick 20 is going to get you access to the 50th best talent in the draft due to F/S and Academies it's not worth as much, doesn't matter if clubs give 2 ***** about whether they were ever accessible or not.

That would never happen. The draft never fluctuates as much as people expect due to clubs bundling up picks for academy selections which sees picks move up the draft.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

That would never happen. The draft never fluctuates as much as people expect due to clubs bundling up picks for academy selections which sees picks move up the draft.

It was intentionally hyperbolic

 

[Pure_Ownage]

If its a pick in the 20s and a 3rd I think that's a fair deal. Have said before my opinion on him is he's worth somewhere between 15 and 30 depending on the buyer.

Fair enough i could live with that.

At the start of the year i was thinking maybe a late 1st for him but his form has been up and down so i think a mid 2nd and say a 3rd is fair now (i assume part of the currency will come from trading esava)

 

[Pure_Ownage]

His value, as sane people have said, is 15-25ish, similar to Rhys Stanley was. Might be less, almost certainly won't be more.

Agreed.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

That's literally what happened with Cadman last year.

That’s just trading up for a certain player, same as Rozee, Pickett, Flanders, Oliver, Kelly etc.
this is my point. A picks value is what the talent available is.

I think we are best to agree to disagree

 

[PAFCsince1870]

If you can't see this kids potential footy might not be the sport for you.

Worth a first round pick in my opinion.

 

[Benga]

If you can't see this kids potential footy might not be the sport for you.

Worth a first round pick in my opinion.

Mind boggling isn’t it?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

VLF PLaYree aT beEsT!