Analysis Tom Hawkins - clearly not insignificant !

BORIS332

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Problem is he *doesn't* tend to make the most of his chances in finals. This is what I mean when I say he isn't clutch. Even if one were to grant the premise that his low shots-on-goal rate in finals is all the midfield's fault, there's still the issue that when he *does* get chances, he converts at a considerably lower rate than he does during the home and away season.

Non-finals games: 234
Non-finals goals: 521 (2.23 per game)
Non-finals behinds: 274 (1.17 per game)

Finals games: 21
Finals goals: 29 (1.38 per game)
Finals behinds: 23 (1.10 per game)
Those stats are meaningless. You play against better opposition in finals, and finals are generally a tougher, slower contest. Of course his numbers would drop off slightly.
 

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catempire

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Those stats are meaningless. You play against better opposition in finals, and finals are generally a tougher, slower contest. Of course his numbers would drop off slightly.
And of course, the team has been shit in finals in most of Hawkins career so it’s no wonder that the player who relies most on teammates has been down on output.
 

Baudolino

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You're both ignoring the fact that I was making a point about goalkicking accuracy, and the fact that he's not clutch in finals. I didn't say anything about the actual volume of scoring shots or whatever, just that when he *does* get chances, he converts them at a poorer rate than in the home and away season.

But okay.
 

BORIS332

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You're both ignoring the fact that I was making a point about goalkicking accuracy, and the fact that he's not clutch in finals. I didn't say anything about the actual volume of scoring shots or whatever, just that when he *does* get chances, he converts them at a poorer rate than in the home and away season.

But okay.
Then you’re still wrong.
 

Baudolino

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Then you’re still wrong.
How?

The stats say I'm objectively right - his conversion rate is poorer during finals than H&A. The only plausible counter-argument to the brute statistical truth of that would be if his shots in finals were, on average, from trickier positions than the shots he gets during H&A. But I don't think thats the case.
 

Footy_Fan2007

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We need a big game from him tonight. His mind seems elsewhere. If he puts an early one through it will give the team confidence. When he plays well we usually win. We know what danger and Stewart will bring. We need the other leaders to step up too.
 

BORIS332

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How?

The stats say I'm objectively right - his conversion rate is poorer during finals than H&A. The only plausible counter-argument to the brute statistical truth of that would be if his shots in finals were, on average, from trickier positions than the shots he gets during H&A. But I don't think thats the case.
Very lazy analysis here. If you included this year’s final then that’s 0.4 and a conversion rate of 0%. Last year and the year before Tomahawk had 100% conversion, he didn’t miss a goal. The year before he kicked 3.1 across the finals, a conversion of 75%. His 0.4 last week was the outlier, and if you remove it then over the past three year’s his conversion in finals is 86%.

Regardless, your statement is that he’s not clutch. Since when is overall kicking accuracy a measure of “clutch”. Is clutch not the ability to stand up in the big moments? What about Tomahawk’s goal after the siren to beat the Hawks? What about his entire 2011 finals series?
 

Baudolino

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Very lazy analysis here. If you included this year’s final then that’s 0.4 and a conversion rate of 0%. Last year and the year before Tomahawk had 100% conversion, he didn’t miss a goal. The year before he kicked 3.1 across the finals, a conversion of 75%. His 0.4 last week was the outlier, and if you remove it then over the past three year’s his conversion in finals is 86%.
"If you ignore this one piece of data I don't like, the data better suits my narrative."

Regardless, your statement is that he’s not clutch. Since when is overall kicking accuracy a measure of “clutch”. Is clutch not the ability to stand up in the big moments?
Finals themselves are big moments. So I do consider kicking accuracy in finals a measure of how clutch a player is, yes. A clutch player kicks those goals Tomahawk missed last week.

I'm baffled that you find this controversial, btw. We've had players in the past who were known for *raising* their level in finals. Hawkins simply doesn't do that. We can debate the extent to which the failures of our midfield have been responsible for that, and I'm certainly not buying in to Gogeelong's over-the-top Hawk bashing, but there's simply no denying that he doesn't raise his game in finals. To admit as much isn't some kind of ultimate insult to his abilities or reputation. Don't interpret this as me writing him off as a hack or whatever. I just don't think he's been brilliant in finals post-2011.
 
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BORIS332

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"If you ignore this one piece of data I don't like, the data better suits my narrative."



Finals themselves are big moments. So I do consider kicking accuracy in finals a measure of how clutch a player is, yes. A clutch player kicks those goals Tomahawk missed last week.

I'm baffled that you find this controversial, btw. We've had players in the past who were known for *raising* their level in finals. Hawkins simply doesn't do that. We can debate the extent to which the failures of our midfield have been responsible for that, and I'm certainly not buying in to Gogeelong's over-the-top Hawk bashing, but there's simply no denying that he doesn't raise his game in finals.
That’s how statistics works, you don’t let outliers skew your data.

If you don’t think Hawkins lifts in finals then you must’ve been in a coma in 2011.
 

Baudolino

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If you don’t think Hawkins lifts in finals then you must’ve been in a coma in 2011.
?????

I literally brought this up myself when I started this conversation two pages ago. Obviously his 2011 GF was brilliant and will deservedly go down as a legendary, iconic finals performance. But it was also eight years ago. What has he done in finals since then?

To me the definition of a player who "lifts in finals" is a player who does so *consistently*. Tom hasn't produced that. If anything he's been consistently mediocre for the most part.

To repeat, I'm not suggesting his struggles in finals have been entirely his fault. There have been mitigating circumstances and we've made things harder for him than they should have been.
 

Baudolino

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It's the unwillingness to countenance *any* nuance on this issue that I don't get. I can buy the idea that much of the blame needs to be directed elsewhere, but surely that doesn't mean Hawk should be made totally immune from any heat whatsoever. Tom's now gone 3 consecutive weeks without a single goal and against Collingwood let the team down in key moments with deflating misses. If we can't criticise him now, under what circumstances *can* we criticise him?
 

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Ratcat

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He's not a strong o/head mark just strong in 1 on 1's and generally will be free kicked by umps because of who he is if he gets to physical.
He's surrounded by smalls who can't support him in the air so of course he's well marked when the high ball comes in.
His only support is Sav when he's not rucking but l believe he needs consistent
support if we're to kick winning scores in finals.
The small forwards are not enough never have been, we always kick bigger scores when we've played a taller forwardline this has been a consistent theme throughout the year but we always revert to a smaller setup, Stanley’s inclusion at least a step in the right direction as was Menegola last week. Can take a mark, can kick a goal.
It's not rocket science it's called support.
 
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BORIS332

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"If you ignore this one piece of data I don't like, the data better suits my narrative."



Finals themselves are big moments. So I do consider kicking accuracy in finals a measure of how clutch a player is, yes. A clutch player kicks those goals Tomahawk missed last week.

I'm baffled that you find this controversial, btw. We've had players in the past who were known for *raising* their level in finals. Hawkins simply doesn't do that. We can debate the extent to which the failures of our midfield have been responsible for that, and I'm certainly not buying in to Gogeelong's over-the-top Hawk bashing, but there's simply no denying that he doesn't raise his game in finals. To admit as much isn't some kind of ultimate insult to his abilities or reputation. Don't interpret this as me writing him off as a hack or whatever. I just don't think he's been brilliant in finals post-2011.
CLUUUUUUTTTTTCHHHH!!!!
 

BORIS332

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"If you ignore this one piece of data I don't like, the data better suits my narrative."



Finals themselves are big moments. So I do consider kicking accuracy in finals a measure of how clutch a player is, yes. A clutch player kicks those goals Tomahawk missed last week.

I'm baffled that you find this controversial, btw. We've had players in the past who were known for *raising* their level in finals. Hawkins simply doesn't do that. We can debate the extent to which the failures of our midfield have been responsible for that, and I'm certainly not buying in to Gogeelong's over-the-top Hawk bashing, but there's simply no denying that he doesn't raise his game in finals. To admit as much isn't some kind of ultimate insult to his abilities or reputation. Don't interpret this as me writing him off as a hack or whatever. I just don't think he's been brilliant in finals post-2011.
Baudolino come in, are you okay? Gone quiet mate.
 

Baudolino

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Baudolino come in, are you okay? Gone quiet mate.
I’m genuinely confused as to what point you *think* you’re making here.

Hawkins played brilliantly on Friday. I said as much in multiple other threads. It’s bizarre that you seem to think, for some unknown reason, that I would be disappointed he did well, or that I would be rooting for my observation about his poor performances in finals to *continue*to be true. It goes without saying that I want him to succeed. If you had actually read my commentary on Hawkins you would know I rate him very highly and have absolutely nothing against him.

The fact that he was great on Friday does not retroactively make his previous seven years worth of finals equally great, or my observation of that fact wrong, so a strong performance from Tom isn’t some kind of weird “gotcha” moment, it’s a happy occurrence we can all enjoy.
 

BORIS332

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I’m genuinely confused as to what point you *think* you’re making here.

Hawkins played brilliantly on Friday. I said as much in multiple other threads. It’s bizarre that you seem to think, for some unknown reason, that I would be disappointed he did well, or that I would be rooting for my observation about his poor performances in finals to *continue*to be true. It goes without saying that I want him to succeed. If you had actually read my commentary on Hawkins you would know I rate him very highly and have absolutely nothing against him.

The fact that he was great on Friday does not retroactively make his previous seven years worth of finals equally great, or my observation of that fact wrong, so a strong performance from Tom isn’t some kind of weird “gotcha” moment, it’s a happy occurrence we can all enjoy.
Sounds like you’re having a hard time admitting you were wrong.
 

JohnZ

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You're both ignoring the fact that I was making a point about goalkicking accuracy, and the fact that he's not clutch in finals. I didn't say anything about the actual volume of scoring shots or whatever, just that when he *does* get chances, he converts them at a poorer rate than in the home and away season.

But okay.
In finals you take your shots from wider and further out.
 

Baudolino

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Sounds like you’re having a hard time admitting you were wrong.
Oh for crying out loud. :drunk:

His exceptional performance last Friday has no relevance whatsoever to whether or not my appraisal of his performances in finals 2012-2018 is accurate or not. Even if I were to grant you that every single thing I said I his performances in finals 2012-2018 was wrong, I wouldn't be wrong *because of* his performance against Collingwood. A good game in the 2019 Semi Final does not change how good or bad his finals in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2018 were.

This isn't complicated.
 
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Baudolino

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But anyway this is becoming a circular argument now so I think it's best if we just leave it.

Whatever the case, we're both on Hawk's side here. Hopefully we make the GF and he backs up his efforts in the Semi with another big game.
 

romeohwho

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Ah well. Was always a long shot. Have to move on, let it go and hope Tommy gets another chance to play his best footy this year.
 

Mr Meow

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Oh for crying out loud. :drunk:

His exceptional performance last Friday has no relevance whatsoever to whether or not my appraisal of his performances in finals 2012-2018 is accurate or not. Even if I were to grant you that every single thing I said I his performances in finals 2012-2018 was wrong, I wouldn't be wrong *because of* his performance against Collingwood. A good game in the 2019 Semi Final does not change how good or bad his finals in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2018 were.

This isn't complicated.
2013 his back was stuffed. 2014 SF and 2016 QF he put in strong performances. He definitely had a crapola run of finals from 2016 prelim to 2018 EF though. Which is a decent dry spell for an elite forward. Glad he bounced back on Friday and sad he's not available the next.
 

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