Analysis Tom Mitchell

[swansfan51]

Considering Tom Mitchell can't break into your team. What would we need to give you to satisfy a trade?

I'm guessing we'll probably downgrade our first round pick for a combination of later first round selection and players (like the previous draft), and our second round pick will most likely be tied to one of our father sons selections.

The player who is the most similar in terms of trade value is Josh Kennedy - father/son, 13 games, similar age, fringe high production inside midfielder (19.4 disposals in last season at Hawthorn). Picks 39 + 46 + 70 (along with McGlynn)

Others to create a range

Levi Greenwood - 22 games with top 4 club (previously fringe), 25yo, inside midfielder. Pick 25
Mitch Hallahan - fringe inside midfielder at top 4 club, averaged 17 disposals in seniors, 22yo, JJ Liston winner. Picks 47 and 49.
Sam Docherty - 1st round pick from same draft as Tom Mitchell. Best 22, balanced/outside midfielder. Pick 33.
Elliot Yeo - 2nd round pick from same draft as Tom Mitchell. Best 22, balanced/outside midfielder. Pick 28.
Josh Caddy - inside midfielder, similar age, 24 games, best 22. First round compensation pick.

 

[andrew_]

What about a second round pick (which is looming to be in the low 20's)? Considering it looks like he wont play more than a dozen games this year and the club can't really toot his horn they're choosing not to play him, I reckon a pick in the 20--25 range is more than fair.

(My earlier Bryce Squibbs comment was made in anger, wouldn't give him up for anything less than a top 10 pick).

 

[GotTheGoodes]

I always find it slightly amusing watching BF posters nut out a trade for players. You are aware it's not real right? Your negotiations are to no avail... I could say Buddy, Hanners, Mitchell and JPK for White & Malthouse and it wouldn't actually really matter.....

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

I always find it slightly amusing watching BF posters nut out a trade for players. You are aware it's not real right? Your negotiations are to no avail... I could say Buddy, Hanners, Mitchell and JPK for White & Malthouse and it wouldn't actually really matter.....

Of course mate it's all discussion this is a forum after all

 

[GotTheGoodes]

Of course mate it's all discussion this is a forum after all

Yeah I know mate. Just one of those little things that amuse me really. I know there's no harm in it and that's what forums are for... Just funny watching posters propose a trade then get "knocked back" to then go again, and again, and again. I've seen some posters get pretty serious about "trades" in the past and I just find it amusing, particularly when it seems to start getting a little more serious. All that effort and sometimes the emotion over literally nothing.

 

[Number37]

I always find it slightly amusing watching BF posters nut out a trade for players. You are aware it's not real right? Your negotiations are to no avail... I could say Buddy, Hanners, Mitchell and JPK for White & Malthouse and it wouldn't actually really matter.....

That's not the worst of it...have you seen the outrage when the mythical trade doesn't eventuate.

 

[andrew_]

I always find it slightly amusing watching BF posters nut out a trade for players. You are aware it's not real right? Your negotiations are to no avail... I could say Buddy, Hanners, Mitchell and JPK for White & Malthouse and it wouldn't actually really matter.....

It's real to me!

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Considering Tom Mitchell can't break into your team. What would we need to give you to satisfy a trade?

I'm guessing we'll probably downgrade our first round pick for a combination of later first round selection and players (like the previous draft), and our second round pick will most likely be tied to one of our father sons selections.

Surely you can't be DUMB enough to downgrade your first again. However lets assume you come 2nd last, pick 20 (or that 2nd round pick) is probably where it is. He is still under contract in 2016 with the Swans, we aren't giving him up for peanuts. Either that or Henderson would be the one asked. Ideally I'd love Gibbs but that won't happen.

 

[FreeAgent1]

Surely you can't be DUMB enough to downgrade your first again. However lets assume you come 2nd last, pick 20 (or that 2nd round pick) is probably where it is. He is still under contract in 2016 with the Swans, we aren't giving him up for peanuts. Either that or Henderson would be the one asked. Ideally I'd love Gibbs but that won't happen.

Carlton arent great to trade with, wont get either of those players. Also they would both want $350k +so we wont get them in. Picks like to be only option, they wont give away low first (nor should they) low 2nd round seems fair (but they will prob want our 3rd for their 4th as well) or something similar

 

[checkpoints]

Surely you can't be DUMB enough to downgrade your first again. However lets assume you come 2nd last, pick 20 (or that 2nd round pick) is probably where it is. He is still under contract in 2016 with the Swans, we aren't giving him up for peanuts. Either that or Henderson would be the one asked. Ideally I'd love Gibbs but that won't happen.

Honestly, I hope we don't. But considering the amount of holes in our list, I wouldn't be surprised to see our first rounder traded. Having said that, with SOS, our recruiting might be completely different.....

 

[GotTheGoodes]

Honestly, I hope we don't. But considering the amount of holes in our list, I wouldn't be surprised to see our first rounder traded. Having said that, with SOS, our recruiting might be completely different.....

No mercy from SOS I suspect.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Honestly, I hope we don't. But considering the amount of holes in our list, I wouldn't be surprised to see our first rounder traded. Having said that, with SOS, our recruiting might be completely different.....

Surely this 'quick fix' way that Carlton have gone in the last 3 years or so should go. Just take the best kid with your first pick. By all means trade your 2nd, whether that be for Mitchell OR part of another trade to trade up into the 1st round. Reality is Carlton need to hit this draft and hit it hard.

 

[Millky95]

Surely this 'quick fix' way that Carlton have gone in the last 3 years or so should go. Just take the best kid with your first pick. By all means trade your 2nd, whether that be for Mitchell OR part of another trade to trade up into the 1st round. Reality is Carlton need to hit this draft and hit it hard.

That depends on their mindset. If they keep overrating talent (note: they shouldn't) they'll be trading in experience like they did with Judd. They should trade out Gibs, maybe Henderson, delist Thomas and go hard in the draft and get good young kids ala Bulldogs

 

[LukeParkerno1]

That depends on their mindset. If they keep overrating talent (note: they shouldn't) they'll be trading in experience like they did with Judd. They should trade out Gibs, maybe Henderson, delist Thomas and go hard in the draft and get good young kids ala Bulldogs

Wouldn't trade Gibbs unless it is a very good deal. Henderson is where they have some value, teams will offer quite a bit (Swans would, as he is a perfect CHB). Thomas was a ridiculous buy at the time let alone for 800K!

 

[checkpoints]

That depends on their mindset. If they keep overrating talent (note: they shouldn't) they'll be trading in experience like they did with Judd. They should trade out Gibs, maybe Henderson, delist Thomas and go hard in the draft and get good young kids ala Bulldogs

Unlike the Bulldogs, Port, Saints, and Melbourne, Carlton hasn't had access to early selections for a while (being mid table and all). Gaining access to early picks should help with our rebuild. However, delisting and or trading out what little talent we have, wouldn't solve our problems. Rather it'll worsen the situation, see Melbourne pre-Roos.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Unlike the Bulldogs, Port, Saints, and Melbourne, Carlton hasn't had access to early selections for a while (being mid table and all). Gaining access to early picks should help with our rebuild. However, delisting and or trading out what little talent we have, wouldn't solve our problems. Rather it'll worsen the situation, see Melbourne pre-Roos.

You had one last year and traded it out to take a 21 year old, when as good as he is, there were KPP's on the board. Carlton do need to have 2 years of really good drafting and SOS is the man for that job, definitely better than the last one that is for sure. It won't be a 1 year job, it will more likely take 2-3 years. Cripps and Menzel look players. You just need to add to that, and possibly find a more ready captain. I rate Murphy highly would love him at Sydney, but is he really the captain?

 

[Millky95]

Unlike the Bulldogs, Port, Saints, and Melbourne, Carlton hasn't had access to early selections for a while (being mid table and all). Gaining access to early picks should help with our rebuild. However, delisting and or trading out what little talent we have, wouldn't solve our problems. Rather it'll worsen the situation, see Melbourne pre-Roos.

Fair enough. Guess it depends on how quickly they want to rebuild.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Fair enough. Guess it depends on how quickly they want to rebuild.

It isn't the worst thing to do a Melbourne/Bulldogs rebuild. Carlton can afford financially to do the long version.

 

[Millky95]

It isn't the worst thing to do a Melbourne/Bulldogs rebuild. Carlton can afford financially to do the long version.

Issue is members. Losing members need a long term plan maybe a "win a flag by 2022" or something

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Issue is members. Losing members need a long term plan maybe a "win a flag by 2022" or something

The key thing there, and this goes for every club (even Sydney). Be transparent. Tell the members, we are going for a big rebuild, give a vague timeframe.

 

[checkpoints]

You had one last year and traded it out to take a 21 year old, when as good as he is, there were KPP's on the board. Carlton do need to have 2 years of really good drafting and SOS is the man for that job, definitely better than the last one that is for sure. It won't be a 1 year job, it will more likely take 2-3 years. Cripps and Menzel look players. You just need to add to that, and possibly find a more ready captain. I rate Murphy highly would love him at Sydney, but is he really the captain?

Considering we wiped out of both the 2009 and 2010 draft, downgrading make sense. It allowed us to address three needs with one selection, as well as, adjusting down the lists age profile. But you're right, most likely it'll be a very lean two to three years. Where we target the draft heavily, and maybe target a few players, like Titch.

Fair enough. Guess it depends on how quickly they want to rebuild.

Being a club that has demand success (in the past...), we've tried quick rebuilds, and the result is today's list. I reckon Malthouse will try to build up our list, and it'll be painful. We'll most likely lose a lot of our fickle supporters along the way.

The key thing there, and this goes for every club (even Sydney). Be transparent. Tell the members, we are going for a big rebuild, give a vague timeframe.

Love for that to work, but Carlton supporters are notoriously fickle. They expect success and if success isn't delivered they leave in droves....

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Considering we wiped out of both the 2009 and 2010 draft, downgrading make sense. It allowed us to address three needs with one selection, as well as, adjusting down the lists age profile. But you're right, most likely it'll be a very lean two to three years. Where we target the draft heavily.

Being a club that has demand success (in the past...), we've tried quick rebuilds, and the result is today's list. I reckon Malthouse will try to build up our list, and it'll be painful. We'll most likely lose a lot of our fickle supporters along the way.

Love for that to work, but Carlton supporters are notoriously fickle. They expect success and if success isn't delivered they leave in droves....

Frankly if the supporters leave, poor didums, they aren't supporters. You support a side whether they are 1st or 18th. If you are a supporter, you are invested in that club, and you should realise that with the draft, success goes in circles. You won't stay up forever.

It may be a lean 2-3 maybe even 4 years, but after that you could have an extremely good list and one that will easily be a finals side. You have some great young kids, but they are very raw, and they need time. You need to nail the next 3-4 drafts. The Bulldogs did that in 2 drafts, and they look to be improving. My view is that quick rebuilds are flawed, they taper over cracks more often than not unfortunately.

 

[tizzay7]

I think one of Mitchells biggest hurdles is that players dont fit Longmires game plan not the game plan fitting the players. It is both a good an bad thing.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I think one of Mitchells biggest hurdles is that players dont fit Longmires game plan not the game plan fitting the players. It is both a good an bad thing.

Well his gameplan for all the bagging has won a flag, and reached a GF. I would love to really bag Horse, but I actually agree with him, we can't have too many genuine insides.

 

[tizzay7]

Well his gameplan for all the bagging has won a flag, and reached a GF. I would love to really bag Horse, but I actually agree with him, we can't have too many genuine insides.

Not bagging the game style either. I think when we play to the standard the coaches want it is a winning fomula. Mitchell is player sort of stuck in the middle. Highly rated in and outside the club but cant force his way in atm with the senior team playing well. If he comes in it will be like for like. Craig Bird is the only one coming out if it is based on form but Birdy is playing well. Parker and Kennedy only if injuries occur. I feel for him but he is a resilient guy. This year will definately show his character cause we all know what his playing capabilities are.