Tom Waterhouse - Ultimate Tout

Sabbathen

Club Legend
Aug 17, 2016
1,006
1,010
AFL Club
West Coast
Tom Waterhouse - “Only a dozen punters in the country know how to regularly win on the horses”
Also Tom Waterhouse - “buy my platinum tips package for $120k a year” https://www.tomwaterhouse.com/tipping/platinum-package

Tom Waterhouse yesterday - “92 unit loss for the day”
92AFFAE9-2080-47C7-B50A-6A700CCF0703.jpeg


Maybe he suggests one of those magical 1million unit banks when you sign up?
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
13,812
14,887
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Extraordinarily hard game if you equate a “unit” to a defined bank of 100 and are punting 92 of them in a single day.
units aren't universally defined. i've seen many 100 unit per day betting plans when you do your own tipping system they can mean whatever you state at the beginning.
 

Sabbathen

Club Legend
Aug 17, 2016
1,006
1,010
AFL Club
West Coast
units aren't universally defined. i've seen many 100 unit per day betting plans when you do your own tipping system they can mean whatever you state at the beginning.
Sure one unit can be worth 6 goats if you like... but in general, please explain the advantages of "1 unit" being worth more or less than 1% of a betting bank. Even more so if you are flogging a tipping service, why confuse and complicate things unless you are trying to on purpose.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
13,812
14,887
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Sure one unit can be worth 6 goats if you like... but in general, please explain the advantages of "1 unit" being worth more or less than 1% of a betting bank. Even more so if you are flogging a tipping service, why confuse and complicate things unless you are trying to on purpose.
So your take out of all this is debating the merit of an arbitrary unit vs bank method calculation that you want to be normalised across the world.

Even endulging you for a second say a 1000 or 10000 unit bank likely erases requirements for decimal units. All are bets are now integers. I’m sure people spending 120k a year on tips can multiply or divide by factors of 10. If you outline at the beginning what a stake is, it is what it is.
 

Sabbathen

Club Legend
Aug 17, 2016
1,006
1,010
AFL Club
West Coast
So your take out of all this is debating the merit of an arbitrary unit vs bank method calculation that you want to be normalised across the world.

Even endulging you for a second say a 1000 or 10000 unit bank likely erases requirements for decimal units. All are bets are now integers. I’m sure people spending 120k a year on tips can multiply or divide by factors of 10.
No, my take out is Tom Waterhouse's tips and staking plan is unbelievably shit... you are the one heading off on a tangent and attempting to start an argument.
I did some more reading, his bank is 500 units meaning on Saturday he suggested risking nearly 20% of it in one day. Absolutely stupid.
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,705
1,049
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
No, my take out is Tom Waterhouse's tips and staking plan is unbelievably shit... you are the one heading off on a tangent and attempting to start an argument.
I did some more reading, his bank is 500 units meaning on Saturday he suggested risking nearly 20% of it in one day. Absolutely stupid.
If he had a massive day on Saturday would that mean he's a fantastic tipster? I wouldn't be judging him on a single day. Mind you charging $120k is going to get you alot of attention so he would be wanting to perform.

I'm on his email list to receive his best bet once a week and feedback from others is that this has been profitable.
 

Sabbathen

Club Legend
Aug 17, 2016
1,006
1,010
AFL Club
West Coast
If he had a massive day on Saturday would that mean he's a fantastic tipster? I wouldn't be judging him on a single day. Mind you charging $120k is going to get you alot of attention so he would be wanting to perform.

I'm on his email list to receive his best bet once a week and feedback from others is that this has been profitable.
I don't care how good you think your record is, betting 20% of your bankroll across 6 bets is just plain ******* stupid and a quick way to the poor house.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
13,812
14,887
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
If he’s using 1/8th Kelly he’s rated them on average 2.00 and getting 2.80ish. That would not be outlandish given only 6 bets for the day.needless to say 1/8th is also very timid for how short the prices are and apparent POT on low volume tips. Would think he’s pushing closer to quarter Kelly. Furthermore if he’s only rated them on average around evens he’s expecting to lose all 6 2-5% of the time. Can’t really bag someone for a bad day everyone’s had them.

Thread just seems bit of a witch hunt with nothing really to go off on an easy target is all.
 

iluvparis

Hall of Famer
Apr 1, 2005
32,088
24,169
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
A bit of analysis of a bloke charging 120k a year for tips is hardly going down the Salem path. So long as Sabbs tells us how he goes next week it seems a good idea for a thread.

Analysis of how much to stake of your bank each week is also entirely valid. You'd have to be a fairly easy going maker though to say risking 20% of your bank on 6 bets each week is going to be profitable for him long term. Is he really finding 6 even money shots each weekend where he can get $2.80? I doubt it - if he could there would be more than 12 winning punters in the country.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Sabbathen

Club Legend
Aug 17, 2016
1,006
1,010
AFL Club
West Coast
If he’s using 1/8th Kelly he’s rated them on average 2.00 and getting 2.80ish. That would not be outlandish given only 6 bets for the day.needless to say 1/8th is also very timid for how short the prices are and apparent POT on low volume tips. Would think he’s pushing closer to quarter Kelly. Furthermore if he’s only rated them on average around evens he’s expecting to lose all 6 2-5% of the time. Can’t really bag someone for a bad day everyone’s had them.

Thread just seems bit of a witch hunt with nothing really to go off on an easy target is all.
If he's using fractional Kelly and advising a staking plan then prices need to be sent along with the tips so you can back in line with that, or what's the point?
But a quick search will show there are plenty of people saying when he does send prices they are rarely available anyway.
 

Sabbathen

Club Legend
Aug 17, 2016
1,006
1,010
AFL Club
West Coast
gee pitchforks are out in force.

any chance of results more than just 1 day.
Have a search for yourself.
Plenty of people saying he's taken a hosing several times.
Also lots of suggestions that records posted on his website reflect prices that were not available when tips were sent out.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
13,812
14,887
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
No surprise which side Mr Contrarian is on ;)
would just like some facts.

like you know

https://www.tomwaterhouse.com/tipping/gold-package/?utm_expid=.ozbWG9WhSay3hCgj1WyZcg.0&utm_referrer=https://www.google.com/

What size bankroll do I need to get started?
We recommend starting with a bankroll of 1,000 units. It's up to you to assign a dollar value to each unit.


oh what a shock he didn't do 20%. 9.2% on his bests of the day accross the nation on a a saturday.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
13,812
14,887
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Results are irrelevant when you are already over betting. Bankroll management like that would likely make him a losing punter even if his tips are any good
see above,

any thoughts on 9.2% on bests over a saturday knowing their avg price around $3
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
13,812
14,887
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
If he's using fractional Kelly and advising a staking plan then prices need to be sent along with the tips so you can back in line with that, or what's the point?
But a quick search will show there are plenty of people saying when he does send prices they are rarely available anyway.
10 seconds ago you were worried about the poor subscribers being able to divide and multiply by factors of 10 now you want him to send prices so they can do reasonably complex calcs for a bet size.

keep it simple, but not too simple eh.
 

Top Bottom