Tom Waterhouse - Ultimate Tout | BigFooty

Tom Waterhouse - Ultimate Tout

Discussion in 'Punting Board' started by Sabbathen, Nov 18, 2018.

  1. Sabbathen

    Sabbathen All Australian

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    Tom Waterhouse - “Only a dozen punters in the country know how to regularly win on the horses”

    Also Tom Waterhouse - “buy my platinum tips package for $120k a year” https://www.tomwaterhouse.com/tipping/platinum-package

    Tom Waterhouse yesterday - “92 unit loss for the day”
    92AFFAE9-2080-47C7-B50A-6A700CCF0703.jpeg

    Maybe he suggests one of those magical 1million unit banks when you sign up?
     
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  2. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    12 is about the right number. Hard game.

    Has good track record too so can’t judge in one day.
     
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  3. Sabbathen

    Sabbathen All Australian

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    Extraordinarily hard game if you equate a “unit” to a defined bank of 100 and are punting 92 of them in a single day.
     
  4. juice t

    juice t #TheExers

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    Another Waterhouse that should be 6 feet in the ground
     
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  5. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    units aren't universally defined. i've seen many 100 unit per day betting plans when you do your own tipping system they can mean whatever you state at the beginning.
     
  6. Sabbathen

    Sabbathen All Australian

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    Sure one unit can be worth 6 goats if you like... but in general, please explain the advantages of "1 unit" being worth more or less than 1% of a betting bank. Even more so if you are flogging a tipping service, why confuse and complicate things unless you are trying to on purpose.
     
  7. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    So your take out of all this is debating the merit of an arbitrary unit vs bank method calculation that you want to be normalised across the world.

    Even endulging you for a second say a 1000 or 10000 unit bank likely erases requirements for decimal units. All are bets are now integers. I’m sure people spending 120k a year on tips can multiply or divide by factors of 10. If you outline at the beginning what a stake is, it is what it is.
     
  8. Sabbathen

    Sabbathen All Australian

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    No, my take out is Tom Waterhouse's tips and staking plan is unbelievably shit... you are the one heading off on a tangent and attempting to start an argument.
    I did some more reading, his bank is 500 units meaning on Saturday he suggested risking nearly 20% of it in one day. Absolutely stupid.
     
  9. mookieb

    mookieb Club Legend

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    If he had a massive day on Saturday would that mean he's a fantastic tipster? I wouldn't be judging him on a single day. Mind you charging $120k is going to get you alot of attention so he would be wanting to perform.

    I'm on his email list to receive his best bet once a week and feedback from others is that this has been profitable.
     
  10. Sabbathen

    Sabbathen All Australian

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    I don't care how good you think your record is, betting 20% of your bankroll across 6 bets is just plain ******* stupid and a quick way to the poor house.
     
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  11. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    Not a fan of quarter Kelly?
     

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  12. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    If he’s using 1/8th Kelly he’s rated them on average 2.00 and getting 2.80ish. That would not be outlandish given only 6 bets for the day.needless to say 1/8th is also very timid for how short the prices are and apparent POT on low volume tips. Would think he’s pushing closer to quarter Kelly. Furthermore if he’s only rated them on average around evens he’s expecting to lose all 6 2-5% of the time. Can’t really bag someone for a bad day everyone’s had them.

    Thread just seems bit of a witch hunt with nothing really to go off on an easy target is all.
     
  13. iluvparis

    iluvparis Premium Platinum

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    A bit of analysis of a bloke charging 120k a year for tips is hardly going down the Salem path. So long as Sabbs tells us how he goes next week it seems a good idea for a thread.

    Analysis of how much to stake of your bank each week is also entirely valid. You'd have to be a fairly easy going maker though to say risking 20% of your bank on 6 bets each week is going to be profitable for him long term. Is he really finding 6 even money shots each weekend where he can get $2.80? I doubt it - if he could there would be more than 12 winning punters in the country.
     
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  14. HeathComeBack

    HeathComeBack Premiership Player

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    IF these guys are winning every week where are they getting on?
     
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  15. Sabbathen

    Sabbathen All Australian

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    If he's using fractional Kelly and advising a staking plan then prices need to be sent along with the tips so you can back in line with that, or what's the point?
    But a quick search will show there are plenty of people saying when he does send prices they are rarely available anyway.
     
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  16. Sabbathen

    Sabbathen All Australian

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    Along with taking people's subscriptions he's most likely backing something, sharing the tip, and then watching the price come tumbling in and laying it off.
     
  17. Jugada

    Jugada Norm Smith Medallist

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    The fact he is betting 20% of his bankroll across 6 bets is enough to tell he has no idea. Whether the bets won or lost is irrelevant really
     
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  18. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    gee pitchforks are out in force.

    any chance of results more than just 1 day.
     
  19. iluvparis

    iluvparis Premium Platinum

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    No surprise which side Mr Contrarian is on ;)
     
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  20. Sabbathen

    Sabbathen All Australian

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    Have a search for yourself.
    Plenty of people saying he's taken a hosing several times.
    Also lots of suggestions that records posted on his website reflect prices that were not available when tips were sent out.
     
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  21. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    would just like some facts.

    like you know

    https://www.tomwaterhouse.com/tipping/gold-package/?utm_expid=.ozbWG9WhSay3hCgj1WyZcg.0&utm_referrer=https://www.google.com/

    What size bankroll do I need to get started?
    We recommend starting with a bankroll of 1,000 units. It's up to you to assign a dollar value to each unit.


    oh what a shock he didn't do 20%. 9.2% on his bests of the day accross the nation on a a saturday.
     
  22. Jugada

    Jugada Norm Smith Medallist

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    Results are irrelevant when you are already over betting. Bankroll management like that would likely make him a losing punter even if his tips are any good
     
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  23. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    see above,

    any thoughts on 9.2% on bests over a saturday knowing their avg price around $3
     
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  24. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    good to see Sabbathen backtracking from 92% of his bank to a false 20% to 9.2%

    just some facts please.
     
  25. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    10 seconds ago you were worried about the poor subscribers being able to divide and multiply by factors of 10 now you want him to send prices so they can do reasonably complex calcs for a bet size.

    keep it simple, but not too simple eh.
     
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