Tom Waterhouse - Ultimate Tout | Page 2 | BigFooty

Tom Waterhouse - Ultimate Tout

Discussion in 'Punting Board' started by Sabbathen, Nov 18, 2018.

  1. Slippers

    Slippers Premiership Player

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    I signed up for one week which was stakes day to see what it was all about $14.95 it cost me and he gave me 2 out of 6 winners one being $1.80 fav and the other was $5.50
    Because i didnt sign up again he sent me a tip on Saturday saying if you were still signed up we would have given you this tip last night which was paying $3.60 now into $2.20 i checked and it was Royal Command which opened at $2.70 and was $1.80 when he sent it to me.
    5EA7A6D6-FD31-470A-BBE3-A978A813053D.png
     
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  2. Sabbathen

    Sabbathen All Australian

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    Please Leifzy... re-read the OP. Where did I say anything about his Gold Package?
    Clearly, it refers to the Silver package which advises a staking plan of 500 units.
    That package gives you his 5 best tips for Saturday plus his best bet he tips on a Friday(5 + 1 = 6, surely you can handle that equation). Have another look at number of tips in the pic I posted in the OP...

    Also waiting on your explanation as to how you can advise a successful staking plan based on fractional Kelly when you don’t quote the prices taken? Do you actually understand the concept of Kelly criterion?
    If your edge is x when odds are y but you don’t tell anyone and they stake the same amount on units at different odds, how is that going to work?

    Your turn.
     
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  3. iluvparis

    iluvparis Premium Platinum

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    The one line comments certainly teach punters how to find a winner :D
     
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  4. Sabbathen

    Sabbathen All Australian

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    Again, this is consistent with the tips I posted from his Silver package. 5 tips plus his 1 odds boost from Friday. Gold package includes that plus more tips. FallingLiefs
     
  5. Sabbathen

    Sabbathen All Australian

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    Lol there is literally hundreds of free and quick calculators available that do this for you instantly.
     
  6. Slippers

    Slippers Premiership Player

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    Hahaha when i first got sent them I expected a more detailed reason as to why he picked the horse not “should be flying home”
     
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  7. Sabbathen

    Sabbathen All Australian

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    No need to do form when you back them first then lay off after all your mug followers have crushed the price for you. At that point, who cares if it wins or not?
     
  8. iluvparis

    iluvparis Premium Platinum

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    You mean I shouldn't have spent all morning looking for horses that 'have the race experience'? :(
     
  9. come on oliver

    come on oliver Team Captain

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    His promo vids are classic. Enjoyed the one where he asked 3 members why they joined.

    Getting filmed at a stable while trying to avoid stepping in horse shit. “Thanks boys, now lets get some champagne brekky!”
    All Aussie adventures, it’s time to hit the road
     
  10. PP34

    PP34 Finals MVP

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    My mates and I chipped in and bought gold for a few weeks of the Spring Carnival.

    The first week he tipped like 9 horses that came second. The other weeks were nothing to really write home about. Hit the odd winner paying a decent amount but that’s it.

    Expected more than one shitty email giving one lined tips. Especially when his tips are meant to be based off complex analytics.

    His social media presence is certainly interesting. Feels like he’s hired a bunch of people to say good things about his service.
     
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  11. Slippers

    Slippers Premiership Player

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    Dont forget all the fake twitter comments saying thanks for all the winners today tom etc
     
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  12. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    i still can't see the "clearly refers to silver package" please point me to it.

    and also post 3 has you inferring it's a 100 unit bank

    "to a defined bank of 100 and are punting 92 of them in a single day"

    and then in post 8 you actually do some research

    "I did some more reading, his bank is 500 units"

    and i still do not see silver mentioned anywhere.

    Slippers then posts results based on his clearly worded silver tips and has completely different range of stake plans. almost halved.

    and in regards to kelly. tipsters need to be held to a defined unit for results calculation etc. i would like for them to be held accountable for actual prices such as SP's and make it clear as day. you can't just say back horse x to $2.15 and it shortens to $1.95 before being rolled and in the results it says no bet. accountability is key, i haven't seen his results listed and sounds like he uses stale prices which is massive warning signs but set unit staking is a requirement. he can use kelly to deduce the stake but then it just has to be kept even for acocampaignerability.
     
  13. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    i'm more than happy to concede he's a snake oil salesman like 90% of the rest of them ralphy etc.

    but it just seems this thread was created to throw laugh at and throw shit an already dislikeable guy on the back of some pretty shitty initial research based on 1 days results and as already explained no research on his actual stake plan/bank/results. Easy target and thread doesn't really serve a purpose without at least some series of results and defined outcomes on history.

    there's plenty of shit throwing on racing twitter tipsters at the moment this just seems a thread to continue that theme for a few like and chuckles.
     
  14. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    yeah some of them are really weird, almost creepy. and then there's the guys who absolutely hate him. hard to get a gauge at all the polar opposites.
     
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  15. Sabbathen

    Sabbathen All Australian

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    Dude. Go and look at what is included in the Silver package. It’s self explanitory, you are clutching at absolute straws now and embarrassing yourself further. As you apparently need everything spelt out for you like a child, you might have also missed the advised 16 unit bet in the tips Slippers posted. More evidence of him going full ****** with his staking advice on more than one occasion.
     
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  16. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    i'm not the one back tracking.


    you are flat out lying that it's plain and simply printed in the OP. please show me. i honestly can't see it and i apologise if im handicapped in some way.


    oh and what's included in the gold package

    upload_2018-11-19_14-24-20.png
     
  17. Sabbathen

    Sabbathen All Australian

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    The thread was made to highlight how poor his tips and staking advice is. Tom is a high profile tipster who has spent some money on a fairly large marketing campaign so it’s a fairly relevant topic on a punting board. Whether I thought he had based it off a 100 unit bank or 500, it’s ridiculous either way. Also I wanted to highlight the pretty funny irony in publicly stating there are only 12 consistently winning racing punters in the country yet he’s fleecing multiple people for a tipping service. Let’s face it, you only buy tips if you think you are going to profit from them, it’s not a good look when the tipster says something like that. Clearly there are a number of people that have fallen for it and and if this thread gets a few potential suckers to reconsider and look a bit deeper then I’m happy with that. What’s your contribution champ?
     
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  18. Sabbathen

    Sabbathen All Australian

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    Lol “my 5 best bets of the day” “Plus my top tips for every major city meeting I’m betting on”
    It’s right there on the second line! Surely you are not that special?
     
  19. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    screenshots don't prove that this isn't there though.

    also again, please show me where it is clearly labeled.
     
  20. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    no it really makes a sizeable difference. one makes you look silly and then to try to defend it makes you look stupid.
     
  21. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    anyone know if his SR% is listed anywhere

    need it for avg price.
     
  22. puntking

    puntking All Australian

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    no one wins all the time its winning with value thats the trick
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG][​IMG]
     
  23. IKnowtheDog

    IKnowtheDog Norm Smith Medallist

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    Slightly on-topic but I wonder if Pia Miller was surprised to see Brad Miller trending on twitter :)

    Brad runs a tipping service via twitter and apparently the twitterverse got quite heated on the weekend.
     
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  24. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    so for some non bias fact based reviews of what's been posted/freely available just looking at bankroll calcs at the moment.

    being harsh as i could for 500 unit bank at avg 12 unit bets @ $3.52avg price on expected POT 10% being very harsh because he may quote stale prices.


    a) betting exactly same dollar per unit as original bank.(ie $500 bank is $12 per bet) - about 3.4% bank wipeout probability for tipsters joining at random stages



    b) for rolling dynamic bank (ie 1 unit is 1/500th of current bank max bank 500units) minimum bank (the lowest total bank left over) is around on average 68 units of 500 remaining over 20,000 bets. for people joining part way through. this option reduces POT to around 7-8% on average.
     
  25. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    actually it's under 3.4% brain not working at the moment and it's counting the ones who joined in the slump and start making money again before bankrupt. oh and POT doesn't reduce in option B, but expected return on infinite bank does. if you had 100 bets of $10 you expect $100 profit. reducing bank at some stages means you might only end up with $80 off the 100 bets because reduced stakes.

    other fact and evidence backed up statements would be welcome.
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2018
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