Tom Waterhouse - Ultimate Tout

Slippers

Norm Smith Medallist
May 25, 2012
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I signed up for one week which was stakes day to see what it was all about $14.95 it cost me and he gave me 2 out of 6 winners one being $1.80 fav and the other was $5.50
Because i didnt sign up again he sent me a tip on Saturday saying if you were still signed up we would have given you this tip last night which was paying $3.60 now into $2.20 i checked and it was Royal Command which opened at $2.70 and was $1.80 when he sent it to me.
5EA7A6D6-FD31-470A-BBE3-A978A813053D.png
 

Sabbathen

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Aug 17, 2016
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good to see Sabbathen backtracking from 92% of his bank to a false 20% to 9.2%

just some facts please.
Please Leifzy... re-read the OP. Where did I say anything about his Gold Package?
Clearly, it refers to the Silver package which advises a staking plan of 500 units.
That package gives you his 5 best tips for Saturday plus his best bet he tips on a Friday(5 + 1 = 6, surely you can handle that equation). Have another look at number of tips in the pic I posted in the OP...

Also waiting on your explanation as to how you can advise a successful staking plan based on fractional Kelly when you don’t quote the prices taken? Do you actually understand the concept of Kelly criterion?
If your edge is x when odds are y but you don’t tell anyone and they stake the same amount on units at different odds, how is that going to work?

Your turn.
 

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Sabbathen

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I signed up for one week which was stakes day to see what it was all about $14.95 it cost me and he gave me 2 out of 6 winners one being $1.80 fav and the other was $5.50
Because i didnt sign up again he sent me a tip on Saturday saying if you were still signed up we would have given you this tip last night which was paying $3.60 now into $2.20 i checked and it was Royal Command which opened at $2.70 and was $1.80 when he sent it to me.
View attachment 585983
Again, this is consistent with the tips I posted from his Silver package. 5 tips plus his 1 odds boost from Friday. Gold package includes that plus more tips. FallingLiefs
 

Sabbathen

Club Legend
Aug 17, 2016
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10 seconds ago you were worried about the poor subscribers being able to divide and multiply by factors of 10 now you want him to send prices so they can do reasonably complex calcs for a bet size.

keep it simple, but not too simple eh.
Lol there is literally hundreds of free and quick calculators available that do this for you instantly.
 

PP34

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Oct 8, 2009
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My mates and I chipped in and bought gold for a few weeks of the Spring Carnival.

The first week he tipped like 9 horses that came second. The other weeks were nothing to really write home about. Hit the odd winner paying a decent amount but that’s it.

Expected more than one shitty email giving one lined tips. Especially when his tips are meant to be based off complex analytics.

His social media presence is certainly interesting. Feels like he’s hired a bunch of people to say good things about his service.
 

Slippers

Norm Smith Medallist
May 25, 2012
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My mates and I chipped in and bought gold for a few weeks of the Spring Carnival.

The first week he tipped like 9 horses that came second. The other weeks were nothing to really write home about. Hit the odd winner paying a decent amount but that’s it.

Expected more than one shitty email giving one lined tips. Especially when his tips are meant to be based off complex analytics.

His social media presence is certainly interesting. Feels like he’s hired a bunch of people to say good things about his service.
Dont forget all the fake twitter comments saying thanks for all the winners today tom etc
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
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Please Leifzy... re-read the OP. Where did I say anything about his Gold Package?
Clearly, it refers to the Silver package which advises a staking plan of 500 units.
That package gives you his 5 best tips for Saturday plus his best bet he tips on a Friday(5 + 1 = 6, surely you can handle that equation). Have another look at number of tips in the pic I posted in the OP...

Also waiting on your explanation as to how you can advise a successful staking plan based on fractional Kelly when you don’t quote the prices taken? Do you actually understand the concept of Kelly criterion?
If your edge is x when odds are y but you don’t tell anyone and they stake the same amount on units at different odds, how is that going to work?

Your turn.
i still can't see the "clearly refers to silver package" please point me to it.

and also post 3 has you inferring it's a 100 unit bank

"to a defined bank of 100 and are punting 92 of them in a single day"

and then in post 8 you actually do some research

"I did some more reading, his bank is 500 units"

and i still do not see silver mentioned anywhere.

Slippers then posts results based on his clearly worded silver tips and has completely different range of stake plans. almost halved.

and in regards to kelly. tipsters need to be held to a defined unit for results calculation etc. i would like for them to be held accountable for actual prices such as SP's and make it clear as day. you can't just say back horse x to $2.15 and it shortens to $1.95 before being rolled and in the results it says no bet. accountability is key, i haven't seen his results listed and sounds like he uses stale prices which is massive warning signs but set unit staking is a requirement. he can use kelly to deduce the stake but then it just has to be kept even for acocampaignerability.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
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i'm more than happy to concede he's a snake oil salesman like 90% of the rest of them ralphy etc.

but it just seems this thread was created to throw laugh at and throw shit an already dislikeable guy on the back of some pretty shitty initial research based on 1 days results and as already explained no research on his actual stake plan/bank/results. Easy target and thread doesn't really serve a purpose without at least some series of results and defined outcomes on history.

there's plenty of shit throwing on racing twitter tipsters at the moment this just seems a thread to continue that theme for a few like and chuckles.
 

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Sabbathen

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Aug 17, 2016
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i still can't see the "clearly refers to silver package" please point me to it.

and also post 3 has you inferring it's a 100 unit bank

"to a defined bank of 100 and are punting 92 of them in a single day"

and then in post 8 you actually do some research

"I did some more reading, his bank is 500 units"

and i still do not see silver mentioned anywhere.

Slippers then posts results based on his clearly worded silver tips and has completely different range of stake plans. almost halved.

and in regards to kelly. tipsters need to be held to a defined unit for results calculation etc. i would like for them to be held accountable for actual prices such as SP's and make it clear as day. you can't just say back horse x to $2.15 and it shortens to $1.95 before being rolled and in the results it says no bet. accountability is key, i haven't seen his results listed and sounds like he uses stale prices which is massive warning signs but set unit staking is a requirement. he can use kelly to deduce the stake but then it just has to be kept even for acocampaignerability.
Dude. Go and look at what is included in the Silver package. It’s self explanitory, you are clutching at absolute straws now and embarrassing yourself further. As you apparently need everything spelt out for you like a child, you might have also missed the advised 16 unit bet in the tips Slippers posted. More evidence of him going full ****** with his staking advice on more than one occasion.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
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Dude. Go and look at what is included in the Silver package. It’s self explanitory, you are clutching at absolute straws now and embarrassing yourself further. As you apparently need everything spelt out for you like a child, you might have also missed the advised 16 unit bet in the tips Slippers posted. More evidence of him going full ****** with his staking advice on more than one occasion.
i'm not the one back tracking.


you are flat out lying that it's plain and simply printed in the OP. please show me. i honestly can't see it and i apologise if im handicapped in some way.


oh and what's included in the gold package

upload_2018-11-19_14-24-20.png
 

Sabbathen

Club Legend
Aug 17, 2016
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i'm more than happy to concede he's a snake oil salesman like 90% of the rest of them ralphy etc.

but it just seems this thread was created to throw laugh at and throw shit an already dislikeable guy on the back of some pretty shitty initial research based on 1 days results and as already explained no research on his actual stake plan/bank/results. Easy target and thread doesn't really serve a purpose without at least some series of results and defined outcomes on history.

there's plenty of shit throwing on racing twitter tipsters at the moment this just seems a thread to continue that theme for a few like and chuckles.
The thread was made to highlight how poor his tips and staking advice is. Tom is a high profile tipster who has spent some money on a fairly large marketing campaign so it’s a fairly relevant topic on a punting board. Whether I thought he had based it off a 100 unit bank or 500, it’s ridiculous either way. Also I wanted to highlight the pretty funny irony in publicly stating there are only 12 consistently winning racing punters in the country yet he’s fleecing multiple people for a tipping service. Let’s face it, you only buy tips if you think you are going to profit from them, it’s not a good look when the tipster says something like that. Clearly there are a number of people that have fallen for it and and if this thread gets a few potential suckers to reconsider and look a bit deeper then I’m happy with that. What’s your contribution champ?
 

Sabbathen

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Aug 17, 2016
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i'm not the one back tracking.


you are flat out lying that it's plain and simply printed in the OP. please show me. i honestly can't see it and i apologise if im handicapped in some way.


oh and what's included in the gold package

View attachment 586170
Lol “my 5 best bets of the day” “Plus my top tips for every major city meeting I’m betting on”
It’s right there on the second line! Surely you are not that special?
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
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Lol “my 5 best bets of the day” “Plus my top tips for every major city meeting I’m betting on”
It’s right there on the second line! Surely you are not that special?
screenshots don't prove that this isn't there though.

also again, please show me where it is clearly labeled.
 

IKnowtheDog

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 25, 2016
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Slightly on-topic but I wonder if Pia Miller was surprised to see Brad Miller trending on twitter :)

Brad runs a tipping service via twitter and apparently the twitterverse got quite heated on the weekend.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
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so for some non bias fact based reviews of what's been posted/freely available just looking at bankroll calcs at the moment.

being harsh as i could for 500 unit bank at avg 12 unit bets @ $3.52avg price on expected POT 10% being very harsh because he may quote stale prices.


a) betting exactly same dollar per unit as original bank.(ie $500 bank is $12 per bet) - about 3.4% bank wipeout probability for tipsters joining at random stages



b) for rolling dynamic bank (ie 1 unit is 1/500th of current bank max bank 500units) minimum bank (the lowest total bank left over) is around on average 68 units of 500 remaining over 20,000 bets. for people joining part way through. this option reduces POT to around 7-8% on average.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
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actually it's under 3.4% brain not working at the moment and it's counting the ones who joined in the slump and start making money again before bankrupt. oh and POT doesn't reduce in option B, but expected return on infinite bank does. if you had 100 bets of $10 you expect $100 profit. reducing bank at some stages means you might only end up with $80 off the 100 bets because reduced stakes.

other fact and evidence backed up statements would be welcome.
 
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