Tom Waterhouse - Ultimate Tout

iluvparis

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The thread was made to highlight how poor his tips and staking advice is. Tom is a high profile tipster who has spent some money on a fairly large marketing campaign so it’s a fairly relevant topic on a punting board. Whether I thought he had based it off a 100 unit bank or 500, it’s ridiculous either way. Also I wanted to highlight the pretty funny irony in publicly stating there are only 12 consistently winning racing punters in the country yet he’s fleecing multiple people for a tipping service. Let’s face it, you only buy tips if you think you are going to profit from them, it’s not a good look when the tipster says something like that. Clearly there are a number of people that have fallen for it and and if this thread gets a few potential suckers to reconsider and look a bit deeper then I’m happy with that. What’s your contribution champ?
The same as always - to play Mr Contrarian :D
 

FallingLiefs

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The same as always - to play Mr Contrarian :D
started out as this, was honestly fishing in first post. then i got responded to in one of the stupid responses of all time thinking he dropped 92% of his bank in a day.

before defending his ever changing stance and refusal to prove what he's stating as facts.
 

iluvparis

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started out as this, was honestly fishing in first post. then i got responded to in one of the stupid responses of all time thinking he dropped 92% of his bank in a day.

before defending his ever changing stance and refusal to prove what he's stating as facts.
Sounds like someone else I know ;)
 

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54Dogs

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Tipping services crack me up.

So apart from over-inflating his prices, the only way to win is to bet before race day on odds boost. Before the price gets smashed. But as soon as you start winning you are limited to no odds boost and betting after 9.00am on race day only, after the price has already been hammered.

12 profitable punters in Aus was rolled gold
 
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Sabbathen

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no it really makes a sizeable difference. one makes you look silly and then to try to defend it makes you look stupid.
Here you go FallingLiefs straight from your dad himself. I’d like to think this will be enough to shut you up but as you seem to be so emotionally invested in this thread it may be wishful thinking. As much as I’m getting a kick out of you continuously making a fool of yourself, it’s probably getting old for everyone else.
Cheers floggo
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F60A7791-C134-47FE-AA03-A625482A4142.png
 

FallingLiefs

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Here you go FallingLiefs straight from your dad himself. I’d like to think this will be enough to shut you up but as you seem to be so emotionally invested in this thread it may be wishful thinking. As much as I’m getting a kick out of you continuously making a fool of yourself, it’s probably getting old for everyone else.
Cheers floggo
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cheers mate.

thanks for posting now we have something to go off. would have been handy to post at start or at least not infer he had 92% staked in one day then.

fools believe the things they read without context and facts you provided neither and basically just made things up as you went after OP.
 
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FallingLiefs

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just because i have done it already and if anyone is wondering what this staking looks like because at first glance it didn't look excessive to me.

as per bets from the 2 samples in the thread.

this is 10% POT (assumed, reduced his POT from stale prices), $3.50 avg price and 9.3 units with a degrading bank, however max bank is never more than 500 units.

the only thing it really is important to show is flat lines (very slightly negative), or periods of loss. the flat line at 600,000 is where stakes reduce to around 1/4 of original bet size. or 2.04 original units.

the length of the line represents 560 years worth of bets. for 5 a weekend.

upload_2018-11-19_17-56-52.png
 

mookieb

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For a start he should be judged over the long term. I would have thought he would have been pretty solid given his background.

But if he's a flop then he won't be able to hide behind someone he pays to post nice comments on twitter.

Anyone able to track his bets weekly?
 

Sabbathen

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If it wasn't clear from the first 2 pages, Tom sends his tips along with a suggested stake size but fails to provide a price to back them at.
So his 18 unit bet on something might have been at $3.40. By the time he sends out the tip its already been backed into $3. By the time the majority of his subscribers have a chance to get on, it might be $2.80. If it wins, what do you think he records his profit as? It may still be value at $2.80 but he certainly wouldn't be staking 18 units on it anymore.
 

mookieb

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Slightly on-topic but I wonder if Pia Miller was surprised to see Brad Miller trending on twitter :)

Brad runs a tipping service via twitter and apparently the twitterverse got quite heated on the weekend.
Racing twitter in full explosion mode over the weekend.

Some of the established racing fraternity are calling him a fraud. I'm in to bat for him though. I'm a subscriber and his tips have been gold both since i've been a member and in the time I was watching.
 

FallingLiefs

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Racing twitter in full explosion mode over the weekend.

Some of the established racing fraternity are calling him a fraud. I'm in to bat for him though. I'm a subscriber and his tips have been gold both since i've been a member and in the time I was watching.
Really? His POT looks bizarrely high.

Also some very selective stats. Had him pegged as good but an exaggerator.
 

mookieb

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Really? His POT looks bizarrely high.

Also some very selective stats. Had him pegged as good but an exaggerator.
His POT has been extremely high. Almost to the point where I am wondering if a downswing is on it's way.

He has a fair few members now so he does move the prices when he recommends a pick on markets days out from the race. Our Libretto went out at $26 but got whittled down extremely quickly to mid teens when I got on and was as short as $5 at one stage. Most bets seem to shorten which is obviously a good sign.

Had some good value bets on futures that have got home.

He gives a good write up on picks too.
 

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Slippers

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If it wasn't clear from the first 2 pages, Tom sends his tips along with a suggested stake size but fails to provide a price to back them at.
So his 18 unit bet on something might have been at $3.40. By the time he sends out the tip its already been backed into $3. By the time the majority of his subscribers have a chance to get on, it might be $2.80. If it wins, what do you think he records his profit as? It may still be value at $2.80 but he certainly wouldn't be staking 18 units on it anymore.
You really hit the nail on the head there that’s exactly what happens he tells u its some inflated price by the time u go to bet its already been completely crunched which defeats his units that he says to put on it the first one i was told to get on he said it was $2.80 boosted odds the night before i checked within 10 mins of that email it was $2.05 boosted
 

iluvparis

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just because i have done it already and if anyone is wondering what this staking looks like because at first glance it didn't look excessive to me.

as per bets from the 2 samples in the thread.

this is 10% POT (assumed, reduced his POT from stale prices), $3.50 avg price and 9.3 units with a degrading bank, however max bank is never more than 500 units.

the only thing it really is important to show is flat lines (very slightly negative), or periods of loss. the flat line at 600,000 is where stakes reduce to around 1/4 of original bet size. or 2.04 original units.

the length of the line represents 560 years worth of bets. for 5 a weekend.

View attachment 586249
A good comparison might be to show the lines for varying degrees of POT
 

Jugada

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His POT has been extremely high. Almost to the point where I am wondering if a downswing is on it's way.

He has a fair few members now so he does move the prices when he recommends a pick on markets days out from the race. Our Libretto went out at $26 but got whittled down extremely quickly to mid teens when I got on and was as short as $5 at one stage. Most bets seem to shorten which is obviously a good sign.

Had some good value bets on futures that have got home.

He gives a good write up on picks too.
Is this the bloke from Punters that outlays ten of thousands of futures multis and then just posts up the winning ticket screenshots to big himself up?
 

mookieb

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Is this the bloke from Punters that outlays ten of thousands of futures multis and then just posts up the winning ticket screenshots to big himself up?
I don't really go on Punters but I think he has hit a big multi previously.

I only judge him on his results through the tipping service. He does some future bets (ie horse to win a G1). Been a member for 7 months and was watching on for a couple months before that. I assume that's a reasonable sample size although I imagine that horse racing variance is quite large.

I also follow a few free tippers that do well but he's been the best results wise.
 

HeathComeBack

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Might be time to find the forum's next T Waterhouse :)

Thinking of a year long comp starting in December - you start with 500 units and have to bet at least 15% of your bank each week across a minimum of 6 selections :D
i am in for this idea buy why bet every week? if there is a week where you don't like something why do you have to tip? also i am a quinella (rather than each way) and double man so does it have to be win bets?
 

iluvparis

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i am in for this idea buy why bet every week? if there is a week where you don't like something why do you have to tip? also i am a quinella (rather than each way) and double man so does it have to be win bets?
Because - if someone is paying you $120k a year for tips he is probably expecting something every Saturday! And win bets only - fancy exotics are too difficult to comprehend for the average joe.
 

HeathComeBack

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Because - if someone is paying you $120k a year for tips he is probably expecting something every Saturday! And win bets only - fancy exotics are too difficult to comprehend for the average joe.
the thing is why tip something if you don't really like it. This has always been my questions with these scams. You say you have 5 best bets of the day but do you really? some weeks you might have 10 and some none. just tip the ones you like not the ones you have to pick. I would never suggest to anyone to bet the way i do, works for me but it i have the attitude that punting is not a daily thing its a lifetime thing so if you lose one day , oh well there is always tomorrow, but 95% of the people i know want to "get out" that day. you will never get out if you keep betting.
 

Watts4Dinner

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Racing twitter in full explosion mode over the weekend.

Some of the established racing fraternity are calling him a fraud. I'm in to bat for him though. I'm a subscriber and his tips have been gold both since i've been a member and in the time I was watching.
He’s got well ahead of himself after a good couple of months. I had to remove him off twitter because I couldn’t stand the peacocking and constant retweet’s from his idiot subscribers.
 

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