List Mgmt. Tom Wilson Signs with Collingwood

[Saintly Viewed]

I view data analysis as having become a quasi-religion - not just in footy, but right throughout culture.

When talking about data, Marie Curie said something along the lines of being able to look through god's eyes. I think for people who seek absolute truth, it's become like the bible - something of comfort that can give them a sense of absolute truth. Like with the Bible, how these spreadsheets were compiled has become irrelevant as has the context under which the story once had relevance. Once something exists in a spreadsheet it becomes scripture to those who view it as a way of seeing absolute truth. I'm not sure how this relates to Tom Wilson, so I'll step off my soap box now.

Sounds right.
Stats are essentially numbers.
Interpretation something else altogether.

I think you also have to have a feel for the game. You’re there and you feel the momentum, you feel the flow etc.
Stats can’t always tell you that.

Though they are an indicator of something.
Eg player has 30 possessions. You know then he has had game involvement. But you also know by feel, if he was influential or was getting “cheap” stats.
Did he pass the ball to often poorly or as it usually excellent.

 

[Thatsmyname]

 

[76woodenspooners]

I view data analysis as having become a quasi-religion - not just in footy, but right throughout culture.

When talking about data, Marie Curie said something along the lines of being able to look through god's eyes. I think for people who seek absolute truth, it's become like the bible - something of comfort that can give them a sense of absolute truth. Like with the Bible, how these spreadsheets were compiled has become irrelevant as has the context under which the story once had relevance. Once something exists in a spreadsheet it becomes scripture to those who view it as a way of seeing absolute truth. I'm not sure how this relates to Tom Wilson, so I'll step off my soap box now.

It’s a very popular soap box that transcends many industries.

It’s the whole quant v qual debate.

Big data and basic machine learning have become a ‘thing’, which is pushing the quant bandwagon. There’s still a lot of value in those markets so expect quant to dominate for a while yet - but the pendulum will swing back.

We’re actually seeing it within Collingwood. Six years ago you couldn’t watch a Nathan Buckley press conference without being bamboozled by stats. Experience has mellowed him out a lot. And as MM used to say “players aren’t robots”.

 

[jonbe54]

Stats are useful as an analyzing tool in conjunction with observation and interpretation but NOT as a guiding principle.

Here's a stat . . .

100% of the entire history of the human race has had a beating heart before their death . . .

Sooo . . . a beating heart is undeniably a risk factor.

The old saying is almost true

There are lies . . . damn lies . . . and then there are stats.

 

[sr36]

It’s a very popular soap box that transcends many industries.

It’s the whole quant v qual debate.

Big data and basic machine learning have become a ‘thing’, which is pushing the quant bandwagon. There’s still a lot of value in those markets so expect quant to dominate for a while yet - but the pendulum will swing back.

Data use can be fantastic. Marie Curie used it to revolutionise medicine. The issue is when it starts being viewed as providing truth rather than just supporting a theory.

We’re actually seeing it within Collingwood. Six years ago you couldn’t watch a Nathan Buckley press conference without being bamboozled by stats. Experience has mellowed him out a lot. And as MM used to say “players aren’t robots”.

Don't remind me. The era of Death by Inside Fifty.

Some boffin/buffoon noticed that there wasn't much difference between clubs in conversion rates. The conclusion is win the inside fifty battle and you win the match. Collingwood's response is to build a whole game around maximising our inside fifties and minimising other teams. Stack the area between the arcs to win the battle there. Push your defenders really really high. Pull a couple of blokes out of our forward line to further stack the area between the arcs. Mission accomplished, we won the inside 50 battles. Surprisingly though conversion rates seemed to inexplicably change. Our 4 against 7 up forward for some reason didn't convert as regularly as other teams. And the opposition conversion rates strangely increased now that we weren't defending inside the arc. The obvious solution was to replace a couple of genuine forwards with defensive forwards, becasue that way we would get more repeat entries inside forward 50. Surprisingly, four forwards which often included Goldsack and Blair struggled to both score and lock the ball in against 7 defenders. Let's get Chris Mayne to play as a defensive forward. That'll fix it.

Bucks and his staff have come a long way.

 

[sirlothie]

Data use can be fantastic. Marie Curie used it to revolutionise medicine. The issue is when it starts being viewed as providing truth rather than just supporting a theory.

That's exactly it, you should only look to stats for confirmation of something you saw with your own eyes. Using them blind as 'proof' is fraught with danger as well explained throughout this thread. You need to see for yourself if the stats were cheap or hard fought. De Goey might get 18 touches but fought tooth and nail for them whereas Phillips might have had 36 touches just handed to him. Then there's the pain factor attached to those stats. You just can't look at a piece of paper and work out who's the best from that. Someone like Phillips may get 120 rating points in supercoach and De Goey gets 80 but is BOG by a country mile. It's like horse racing, those who study the form guide don't have much more luck than those who pick a horse because the jockey is wearing pink... you should only use stats to back up a conclusion you have come to, not use stats to come to a conclusion... none of us watch every game so really we are talking out of our arse about a lot of up and coming opposition players unless you for some reason watch that team every game but most of us are only really authority's on Collingwood players. That's why when you see a thread about people naming the best they have seen they will almost always pick someone from their club. Only those who have big highlights that are clearly outstanding get universal plaudits because everyone sees them but a negligible edge in stats doesn't mean s**t. KM said Hooker is the king in a particularly stat category because he is averaging 9 this season in 4 games compared to Moore's 8.9... come on...

 

[Thatsmyname]

"Everything! every nuance of the game and every atom in the universe can be explained with stats, god is a statistician." Sir Albert Einstein

 

[TradeDraft]

So when will Wilson start to play in the VFL?

 

[Thatsmyname]

So when will Wilson start to play in the VFL?

Chuck Norris says "whenever he damn well wants!"

 

[unplugged]

So when will Wilson start to play in the VFL?

Pendles took a guess Jock n Journo that it might not be for 3-4 (or maybe it was 4-5) weeks, after he has done some solid conditioning work and grasps the gameplan somewhat.

Said he was fit but it doesn't sound like he'll be rushed.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Pendles took a guess Jock n Journo that it might not be for 3-4 (or maybe it was 4-5) weeks, after he has done some solid conditioning work and grasps the gameplan somewhat.

Said he was fit but it doesn't sound like he'll be rushed.

Very sensible.

Give him a good tour of duty.
Let him learn.
Play some games when he’s ready.

Then a big big pre-season and off he goes into 2020.

 

[TradeDraft]

Pendles took a guess Jock n Journo that it might not be for 3-4 (or maybe it was 4-5) weeks, after he has done some solid conditioning work and grasps the gameplan somewhat.

Said he was fit but it doesn't sound like he'll be rushed.

So probably debut after the bye?

 

[unplugged]

So probably debut after the bye?

The AFL bye? I'd say this is probably the timeline they're leaning towards.

 

[sirlothie]

So probably debut after the bye?

Debut in the VFL. He won't make AFL this year.

 

[TradeDraft]

Debut in the VFL. He won't make AFL this year.

That what I meant.

Only Injuries would be a Reason he would come in like how Madgen got games late last season

 

[Soups]

Let him settle in for a week or 2 and play him. He’ll be keen as mustard to get out there I bet and there’s no way better to get fit than chase the pill around.

 

[Jen2310]

Scott says he'll prob play VFL in 4-6 weeks. But can see him playing AFL this year.

 

[TradeDraft]

Scott says he'll prob play VFL in 4-6 weeks. But can see him playing AFL this year.

Be Big Story IF he does

 

[unplugged]

Scott says he'll prob play VFL in 4-6 weeks. But can see him playing AFL this year.

I'm not sure that's what he meant. I took it that he was just confirming that he was eligible to play.

Happy for someone else who listened to disagree though!

 

[Thatsmyname]

Scott says he'll prob play VFL in 4-6 weeks. But can see him playing AFL this year.

Hey I was only kidding.

 

[Jen2310]

I'm not sure that's what he meant. I took it that he was just confirming that he was eligible to play.

Happy for someone else who listened to disagree though!

You just never know. Any options are possible. Lets just see how he goes.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Be Big Story IF he does

I’ll go out on a limb here, he will not play seniors this year.

Needs the body of fitness and needs a solid pre season as a minimum.

(Some limb)

 

[Black_White]

Could someone smarter than me please, please come up with a nickname for this player?
When I read “when will Wilson start VFL”? I can’t help but visualise Caro....
And that’s affecting my sleep...

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Could someone smarter than me please, please come up with a nickname for this player?
When I read “when will Wilson start VFL”? I can’t help but visualise Caro....
And that’s affecting my sleep...

Willo

My bet for the brainiacs that go for the simplest Aussie lingo.

 

[PIEWITHSAUCE]

Could someone smarter than me please, please come up with a nickname for this player?
When I read “when will Wilson start VFL”? I can’t help but visualise Caro....
And that’s affecting my sleep...

My visualisation.......