Scores and rankings Top 10 Teams - Analysis

[superfraser]

Ouch.

First Take who moved up 11 spots into 9th position traded out KMac and Krakouer for Nick Holman and Max Gawn.

Perhaps Gawn will save him down the track, but this week, it cost him trades and points -- that being said, he's moved himself into the top 10, so, ultimately, it was a successful round for him.

 

[superfraser]

As far as I can tell, 8 of the top 10 teams made two trades each.

Travisty (3rd) made no trades and SNEDDIN GLORY (4th) made 1 trade.

 

[JC Hawks]

Is it just me or is the guy coming first's team not that good? He has a dodgy backline with players like Brown and Oxley still holding up a position in the 6. He also has only two defenders averaging over 90. He is required to play one of Steele or Krakouer in the midfield. He is a long way ahead at the moment, but I can definitely see others catching him in the end.

Edit: Not far ahead at all and will almost certainly be caught.

 

[NinjaSwan]

Is it just me or is the guy coming first's team not that good? He has a dodgy backline with players like Brown and Oxley still holding up a position in the 6. He also has only two defenders averaging over 90. He is required to play one of Steele or Krakouer in the midfield. He is a long way ahead at the moment, but I can definitely see others catching him in the end.

Edit: Not far ahead at all and will almost certainly be caught.

Only 34 points in front and basically every team I've seen is better than his (both at the top of the rankings and on BF), because while he was sideways trading midfield premos over the bye rounds everyone else was upgrading their teams. Will lose 100-200 points per week to the other teams.

 

[Fluffy Tiger]

Week 14 - Last weeks top 10

or renamed

"No Sloane for you"

Well the leader has come back to the pack and only leads by 34. As has been pointed out before he doesn't look like hanging on after spending 3 weeks going sideways. The top 18 thing was helpful for some and not others (grrr), Having cover that was going to score you 70-90 just didnt help this week. The leader scored 2004 and was the lowest of all the top 10. Top of those 10 was "Hezza's Dogs" who scored 2263 which jumped him from 6th to 2nd. The average top 10 was 2112.

All top 10 used two trades except for Travisty (0) $urferboi69 (1) and The Phantom (1). I thought this a bit strange as the top 18 rule probably meant you could sit, watch and save your trades if you had 18 or more good players taking the field. Not one of the top 10 kept Sloane with most going with a straight swap for some other Mid premo. Three teams went for Ruck Cover, 1 with Gawn , 1 with McKernan. The strangest trade of the week was Cox to Leuenberger in the rucks to cover for S.Martin (2 weeks suspended), this would result in Leuenburger being stuck on the ruck bench for the rest of season without another trade. Not sure I would want to keep $274,400 on the bench there.

4 teams drop out of the top 10, 2 old ones are back + 2 new ones. I will add to the second part of my report the number or known trades for each of those that are still in or have been in before. Back later in the day.

 

[superfraser]

<snip>

As always, love it mate!

I've had a look at the new top 10, rather than the old top 10, as you have done. Hence why our trade numbers are slightly different.

Of the current top 10, these are the trades I've found - if I did my work correctly.

Hard To Beat: rSloane fMcInnes -> lParker jSteele
hezza's dogs: rSloane pCripps -> mPriddis dArmitage **Armitage and Priddis being a big reason this guy was able to leapfrog into second. Well played.
Travisty: no trades **Smart. Fighting to hold rank 1 or 2 or anything in the short term will often cost you in the long term, as we expect to see with Hard To Beat.
SNEDDIN GLORY: jLever -> jKennedy
Clutch Mauler's: hAndrews dMcKenzie ->aNealBullen jZiebell **As a Ziebell owner, I found this a strange move.
Big Test Icicles: rSloane pCripps -> mPriddis dHanneberry
Shotgun: rSloane hBennell -> bGoddard kLambert **Ouch.
The A Team: aOxley rSloane -> kSimpson jKennedy
First Take: kMcIntosh nKrakour -> nHolman mGawn **OUCH!
The Biggest Losers: tDumont lFranklin -> sMcKernan jKennedy

Naturally, the guys who moved into the top 10 made good calls on their trades this week.

When looking at the How many trades left? thread, we can see so many coaches are at 6 or so trades. I expect the vast majority of the top 10 are similar.

It's hard to see how any will be able to get GAJ/Rocky/Sidebottom unless they're trading out players like Neale or Jelwood. On Jelwood, I'm really worried that he'll have a huge purple patch after a two week rest. Traded him out during the Byes after persisting with him all year. Hope he doesn't burn me, he's still quite popular at the top.

I'm planning to bring in Sidebottom and GAJ in the next two weeks, and if Rocky looks good, I think I'll sideways from Neale to Rocky afterwards.

Perhaps something that would also be worth doing is looking at the best non-starting player on each line for the top teams as we'd get a feel for how they'll score once the trades have been exhausted. I might see if I can make time for that this week, although I still have a lot of data entry to do to grab the remaining 40 teams of the top 50.

 

[Fluffy Tiger]

As always, love it mate!

I've had a look at the new top 10, rather than the old top 10, as you have done. Hence why our trade numbers are slightly different.

Of the current top 10, these are the trades I've found - if I did my work correctly.

Hard To Beat: rSloane fMcInnes -> lParker jSteele
hezza's dogs: rSloane pCripps -> mPriddis dArmitage **Armitage and Priddis being a big reason this guy was able to leapfrog into second. Well played.
Travisty: no trades **Smart. Fighting to hold rank 1 or 2 or anything in the short term will often cost you in the long term, as we expect to see with Hard To Beat.
SNEDDIN GLORY: jLever -> jKennedy
Clutch Mauler's: hAndrews dMcKenzie ->aNealBullen jZiebell **As a Ziebell owner, I found this a strange move.
Big Test Icicles: rSloane pCripps -> mPriddis dHanneberry
Shotgun: rSloane hBennell -> bGoddard kLambert **Ouch.
The A Team: aOxley rSloane -> kSimpson jKennedy
First Take: kMcIntosh nKrakour -> nHolman mGawn **OUCH!
The Biggest Losers: tDumont lFranklin -> sMcKernan jKennedy

Naturally, the guys who moved into the top 10 made good calls on their trades this week.

When looking at the How many trades left? thread, we can see so many coaches are at 6 or so trades. I expect the vast majority of the top 10 are similar.

It's hard to see how any will be able to get GAJ/Rocky/Sidebottom unless they're trading out players like Neale or Jelwood. On Jelwood, I'm really worried that he'll have a huge purple patch after a two week rest. Traded him out during the Byes after persisting with him all year. Hope he doesn't burn me, he's still quite popular at the top.

I'm planning to bring in Sidebottom and GAJ in the next two weeks, and if Rocky looks good, I think I'll sideways from Neale to Rocky afterwards.

Perhaps something that would also be worth doing is looking at the best non-starting player on each line for the top teams as we'd get a feel for how they'll score once the trades have been exhausted. I might see if I can make time for that this week, although I still have a lot of data entry to do to grab the remaining 40 teams of the top 50.

As I have said before I dont look at the teams outside of the top 10, it would be just to much each week. Quite alot of data entry as you said. I either know exactly or have a very close idea what trades a team does if they are in the top 10, drop out and come back but apart from that I don't. You have given some good info on the two new teams I didnt have.

There is one error that I picked up, Sneddin Glory infact did two trades. Lever and Sloane to Kennedy and R.Knight. You probably didn't pick the other up as Knight isnt a player I have seen in any lists before. I will be back later with my second half looking at the current week top 10 as always.

 

[superfraser]

As I have said before I dont look at the teams outside of the top 10, it would be just to much each week. Quite alot of data entry as you said. I either know exactly or have a very close idea what trades a team does if they are in the top 10, drop out and come back but apart from that I don't. You have given some good info on the two new teams I didnt have.

There is one error that I picked up, Sneddin Glory infact did two trades. Lever and Sloane to Kennedy and R.Knight. You probably didn't pick the other up as Knight isnt a player I have seen in any lists before. I will be back later with my second half looking at the current week top 10 as always.

Thanks, I made the change on his list, but didn't enter it in my trade section.

If everything else is right then 9/10 current top 10 teams made 2 trades last week. It'll be interesting to find out if that's common across the entire top 50.

I guess once trades run out, some coaches will fall away rapidly.

 

[Stanton]

Thanks for your insights guys. Would be great to know how many trades the tops guys have. I agree that Hard to Beat
has messed up and probably will drop down faster than a cheap hooker.

I dropped 40 spots to 94 yet made a small amount of ground overall with 2037. If only I Viced Pendles. Be very interesting
to see how many teams bring in Gary this week. Where r u sitting no superfraser?

 

[superfraser]

Thanks for your insights guys. Would be great to know how many trades the tops guys have. I agree that Hard to Beat
has messed up and probably will drop down faster than a cheap hooker.

I dropped 40 spots to 94 yet made a small amount of ground overall with 2037. If only I Viced Pendles. Be very interesting
to see how many teams bring in Gary this week. Where r u sitting no superfraser?

I'm at 86 mate. I'm sitting at 11 trades.

At the moment, I'm planning Lonie to Sidebottom this week, followed by Lever+Hamling to GAJ next week (It'll be very tight with money so may be forced into taking a cheaper option)

Willing to share your number of trades? I expect most of the top 100 are around 6-8 trades. But there will be a handful with 10+.

 

[Fluffy Tiger]

Two New teams and 2 returning teams to the top 10. A few new players added to the list of used this week. R.Knight, A.Neal-Bullen, N.Holman, J.McMillian, R.Obrien, S.McKernan. Sloane is only left in one team. Rocky and Ablett don't appear at all but I don't expect that to be the case for long.

Every team in the top 10 had the following players.

H.Shaw
D.Martin
S.Pendlebury
N.Fyfe
J.Steele (NEW)

Other players that were in almost all teams (7/10 or more)

T.Goldstien (9)
T.Mitchell (7)
J.Hambling (8)
D.Swan (9)
R.Gray (9)
D.Beams (7)
K.Lambert (7)
J.Newnes (7) NEW
J.Kennedy (8) NEW
L.Dalhaus (7) NEW

Dropped of these lists are
L.Franklin ,P.Dangerfield,R.Sloane

I find Steele to be the most interesting one there, he is only on the bubble this week and yet every team has him. Newnes and Kennedy rewarding those that have kept the faith and in Kennedy's case those that have jumped on cheap.

Again we have a new team coming in with the highest yet team Value. "The Biggest Losers" comes in with a value of $13,525,800. he is also probably the most unique team now in the top 10 with players like McMillian, Cotchin and Motlop that dont appear in any other top 10 team. He also has bench cover in the Mids of M.Wallis and B.Goddard and is one of the few teams with ruck cover in S.McKernan. If you get a chance check out his team. Maybe the "Biggest Losers" could end up the biggest winners.

Trades used by top 10 teams

1, Hard to Beat, 14 trades in 7 weeks
2, Hezza's Dogs, 12 trades in 5 weeks
3, Travisty, 14 trades in 7 weeks
4, SNEDDIN GLORY, 3 trades in 2 week
5, Clutch Maulers, 7 trades in 3 weeks
6, Big Test Icicles, 11 trades in 5 weeks
7, Shotgun, 16 trades in 7 weeks
8, The A Team, 11 trades in 6 weeks
9, First take , 2 trades in 1 week (from superfraser)
10, The Biggest Losers, 2 trades in 1 week (from superfraser)

I know this doesn't tell us how many they have left but I am sure from this and their actions we will be able to figure out who is getting close to running out. Enough fun, Real work time.

 

[Stanton]

I'm at 86 mate. I'm sitting at 11 trades.

At the moment, I'm planning Lonie to Sidebottom this week, followed by Lever+Hamling to GAJ next week (It'll be very tight with money so may be forced into taking a cheaper option)

Willing to share your number of trades? I expect most of the top 100 are around 6-8 trades. But there will be a handful with 10+.

6.... Have 160 k in the kitty, Have Cripps/wallis at mid 8/9, Mckernon f 7, Oxley, McGovern, Saad, Smith cover f4 to f7 my worry. But generally have good depth. 86th is great with 11 trades. I havent quite enough to straight swap Wallis to Ablett this week

 

[superfraser]

Do you consider bringing in GAJ and Rocky as absolute necessities? How many trades do you think it'd take?

 

[Stanton]

Do you consider bringing in GAJ and Rocky as absolute necessities? How many trades do you think it'd take?

I think you should trade in Jack Watts as a big POD. No just kidding, GAJ is a tough one personally im bringing him in but probably next week. Of course always a chance he will get injured but looked great on the weekend. Your laughing with 11 trades tho, not sure Rocky is a must have...

 

[Amazing Bombers]

Do you consider bringing in GAJ and Rocky as absolute necessities? How many trades do you think it'd take?

GAJ yes, Rocky maybe.

 

[Stanton]

Do you consider bringing in GAJ and Rocky as absolute necessities? How many trades do you think it'd take?

Are u late inclusion? Do you have any cash stored? U need to try and get to full premo asap!

 

[Falchoon]

Only 34 points in front and basically every team I've seen is better than his (both at the top of the rankings and on BF), because while he was sideways trading midfield premos over the bye rounds everyone else was upgrading their teams. Will lose 100-200 points per week to the other teams.

The valuations suggest most of the top 20 will have an extra premium or the potential to add one over and above Hard to Beat.

Difference in values of teams 2-20 vs team no.1

$532,200 02. hezza's dogs
$697,200 03. Travisty
$614,300 04. SNEDDIN GLORY
$347,100 05. Clutch Mauler's
$562,000 06. Big Test Icicles
$69,000 07. Shotgun
$192,600 08. The A Team
$552,800 09. First Take
$862,700 10. The Biggest Losers
$271,900 11. RELIEABLES
$262,300 12. The Phantom
$439,800 13. Go Pies 05
$659,700 14. Matthew's Team
$489,800 15. The Polish Hammer
$578,600 16. KBears
$578,200 17. King Habibi
$225,500 18. MagikMoggies
$110,700 19. Shane's Team
$315,300 20. Saucey


Giving up $500k+ is like playing with one hand tied behind your back, unless you have an advantage in trades.

 

[Krujan]

The valuations suggest most of the top 20 will have an extra premium or the potential to add one over and above Hard to Beat.

Difference in values of teams 2-20 vs team no.1

$532,200 02. hezza's dogs
$697,200 03. Travisty
$614,300 04. SNEDDIN GLORY
$347,100 05. Clutch Mauler's
$562,000 06. Big Test Icicles
$69,000 07. Shotgun
$192,600 08. The A Team
$552,800 09. First Take
$862,700 10. The Biggest Losers
$271,900 11. RELIEABLES
$262,300 12. The Phantom
$439,800 13. Go Pies 05
$659,700 14. Matthew's Team
$489,800 15. The Polish Hammer
$578,600 16. KBears
$578,200 17. King Habibi
$225,500 18. MagikMoggies
$110,700 19. Shane's Team
$315,300 20. Saucey


Giving up $500k+ is like playing with one hand tied behind your back, unless you have an advantage in trades.

I'm ranked 680 and my team is worth 340k more than the #1 ranked team. His season is over. I'd back myself to finish higher than him. McInspud is his D6 & Krak is his M8 with nowhere near enough player $ value on his benches to upgrade those 2 starting positions. He would need to use a minimum of 3 trades to get GAJ in from here. Also has no Hodge. Only has 1 player in def averaging 92+ (Shaw)

 

[Falchoon]

Also anyone with the word 'team' in their team name - doesn't deserve to be in the top 20.

 

[superfraser]

Are u late inclusion? Do you have any cash stored? U need to try and get to full premo asap!

I am, and I do. I've $425K stored.

Planning on Sidebottom this week, GAJ the next. (using 3 trades to complete all of that - moving Yeo to defence and Ziebell forward.

And then I'd look to upgrade Ziebell + my worst performing defender. Ideally, keeping Ziebell or that defender as bench cover.

Interested in hearing alternative suggestions.

 

[Stanton]

I am, and I do. I've $425K stored.

Planning on Sidebottom this week, GAJ the next. (using 3 trades to complete all of that - moving Yeo to defence and Ziebell forward.

And then I'd look to upgrade Ziebell + my worst performing defender. Ideally, keeping Ziebell or that defender as bench cover.

Interested in hearing alternative suggestions.

I think that's a really solid plan. I may sit tight this week depending on teams and get Gaj next week

 

[spangleduck]

I am, and I do. I've $425K stored.

Planning on Sidebottom this week, GAJ the next. (using 3 trades to complete all of that - moving Yeo to defence and Ziebell forward.

And then I'd look to upgrade Ziebell + my worst performing defender. Ideally, keeping Ziebell or that defender as bench cover.

Interested in hearing alternative suggestions.

Sidebum ahead of Rockliff? Both were high on my radar last week too.. I'll potentially bring in both Ablett and Rocky in the next few weeks. Not sure if I can do it with only a few trades left though, in case of injury coming back.

 

[superfraser]

Sidebum ahead of Rockliff? Both were high on my radar last week too.. I'll potentially bring in both Ablett and Rocky in the next few weeks. Not sure if I can do it with only a few trades left though, in case of injury coming back.

I've been burnt by Rockliff already, I want to see more. I feel like I could probably go

Rnd 15 - Lonie -> Sidebottom
Rnd 16 - Hamling + Lever -> GAJ + rookie
Rnd 17 - Neale -> Rockliff (may require extra downgrade by then). It would depend on how the likes of Ziebell, Burgoyne, Ibbotson, BSmith and Jacobs are scoring. And also how both Neale and Rockliff are scoring.

 

[spangleduck]

I've been burnt by Rockliff already, I want to see more. I feel like I could probably go

Rnd 15 - Lonie -> Sidebottom
Rnd 16 - Hamling + Lever -> GAJ + rookie
Rnd 17 - Neale -> Rockliff (may require extra downgrade by then). It would depend on how the likes of Ziebell, Burgoyne, Ibbotson, BSmith and Jacobs are scoring. And also how both Neale and Rockliff are scoring.

I like it, good plan. Lewis is an interesting one too. He's super cheap and finished last year really well; might history repeat itself with the hawks peaking for finals again? The off putting part is last year was the only time he's averaged over 100, and he's now in his late 20's..

 

[superfraser]

I like it, good plan. Lewis is an interesting one too. He's super cheap and finished last year really well; might history repeat itself with the hawks peaking for finals again? The off putting part is last year was the only time he's averaged over 100, and he's now in his late 20's..

I personally don't buy into things like - "Selwood always starts slowly", "Lewis always finishes strongly.", "X always tears it up against Y".

I trust Sidey to score more than I trust Lewis to score.
I was watching the Pies game closely last week. Sidey was scoring so rapidly, I was expecting him up around 140 but he just dropped off in the last. I think he's ready to go.

Anyway, we should get back to top 10/top 100 discussion.

I've still got another 20 teams to enter before I'll have a top 50 analysis done.