Prediction TOP 8 - 2018

[Saintly Viewed]

Wow Dave you've really lost faith!

He hasn’t got us dead last.
Thats optimistic for him.
Dave is a pessimist in these things.

But that’s ok, because regardless of any of that or our own views, games will be played, games will be won, and we’ll finish accordingly.

Super even year.
Kick straight things will happen

 

[No SPIN]

Burton, Sicily, Mitchell, O'Meara, Ceglar, O'Brien, Miles, Brand, Lovell, Morrison and Willsmore. Add a fit Rioli and Puopolo, and a coach who knows how to get improvement out of his players. They'll be streets ahead of Collingwood.

I think improvement of Treloar, Adams, Maynard, Shaz, Grundy, Moore, JDG, Cox, Crisp, Langdon ,Phillips, WHE, Aish and add a fit Varcoe, Pendles, Wells, Wills more than cover the above.

I really cant see how Miles, Morrison, Lovell and Willsmore who collectively have played 7 games have anywhere near the exposed form to suggest they will assist Haw. to make top 4 per your prediction.

 

[Scodog10]

I think improvement of Treloar, Adams, Maynard, Shaz, Grundy, Moore, JDG, Cox, Crisp, Langdon ,Phillips, WHE, Aish and add a fit Varcoe, Pendles, Wells, Wills more than cover the above.

I really cant see how Miles, Morrison, Lovell and Willsmore who collectively have played 7 games have anywhere near the exposed form to suggest they will assist Haw. to make top 4 per your prediction.

I think the suggestion is more along the lines of “that’s just what happens at Hawthorn”. Where we sit and say x and y player should improve for a and b reasons Hawthorn just do it. Or at least they used to. I’m not sure they’re the benchmark they used to be in this area because of all the IP they’ve lost off-field.

 

[doppleganger]

Not saying they're going to be making finals, but I think they'll improve.

Well it has been four consecutive years where they have failed to win more than 7 games.

And with Gibbs and Docherty gone, I reckon it will be a 5th consecutive year where the bloooze don't win more than 7 games. Knives will be out and coming for Bolton is my tip.

 

[doppleganger]

That’s great and all as topics that have been discussed as nauseum, but the fact is we have a bottom 2-3 FD so until that improves no manner of counter arguments will hold much weight with me. I clearly rate the potential there, but have zero faith in our ability to harness it. The club made some changes to rectify that so let’s see how they play out.

We all have opinions, not sure why you think yours is fact?

I too think our entire FD has been poorly run for a while, wouldn't say it is bottom 3 with any conviction as don't follow all other clubs close enough to rank them.

For mine this is further reason for optimism, if we have implemented changes and improvements to our FD this can only be a good thing for a list that has been poorly assisted recently.

So if we managed a 9w1d 99% season with a poor FD, plenty of senior players missing big patches of games, with kids in important roles who will improve I can see plenty of reasons why we should be better in 2018.

The softer fixture is the cherry on top.

 

[Scodog10]

We all have opinions, not sure why you think yours is fact?

I too think our entire FD has been poorly run for a while, wouldn't say it is bottom 3 with any conviction as don't follow all other clubs close enough to rank them.

For mine this is further reason for optimism, if we have implemented changes and improvements to our FD this can only be a good thing for a list that has been poorly assisted recently.

So if we managed a 9w1d 99% season with a poor FD, plenty of senior players missing big patches of games, with kids in important roles who will improve I can see plenty of reasons why we should be better in 2018.

The softer fixture is the cherry on top.

Because of the changes and regression in performance despite us having a top 6 best 22 (as per CD ratings). I mean it should be obvious...

This isn’t exactly new either. It’s been a fact for the better part of the past 3 years which I have been banging on about. It concerns me that some would see that as a source of optimism as well.

It’s akin to a Carlton supporter saying they’ll be good this year simply because they’ve been s**t in previous years. It makes no logical sense without factual support such as Longmuir will add this or Buddha Hocking this or White has taken a great steaming dump on Davoran’s processes then started afresh or Buckley has actually developed the ability to coach.

It’s all well and good to be optimistic, but I’ll just sit back with my realistic and factual view until the FD proves it otherwise.

 

[jackcass]

Well it has been four consecutive years where they have failed to win more than 7 games.

And with Gibbs and Docherty gone, I reckon it will be a 5th consecutive year where the bloooze don't win more than 7 games. Knives will be out and coming for Bolton is my tip.

I don't think you're giving enough credence to their recruiting over the last few seasons. Yes they've added a flock of GWS players, but they've also hit the draft with lots of high picks. Many of those players, much like our own kids, will be starting to hit the sweet spot. Discount them at your own peril.

 

[Jasper84]

I think the suggestion is more along the lines of “that’s just what happens at Hawthorn”. Where we sit and say x and y player should improve for a and b reasons Hawthorn just do it. Or at least they used to. I’m not sure they’re the benchmark they used to be in this area because of all the IP they’ve lost off-field.

It's certainly the stance they took when they recruited Vickery...

 

[doppleganger]

I don't think you're giving enough credence to their recruiting over the last few seasons. Yes they've added a flock of GWS players, but they've also hit the draft with lots of high picks. Many of those players, much like our own kids, will be starting to hit the sweet spot. Discount them at your own peril.

IMO the sweet spot is once a player has played 40-50 games. That is when they feel confident and you should be expecting consistent performance.

That is where DeGoey, Maynard, Moore are now at...as to are guys like Aish, Broomy, Langdon.

We also have guys like Grundy, Elliott, Adams, Treloar, Crisp, WHE who are next phase where they are in their prime now.

Carlton have Cripps and Weitering in that 40 game sweet spot, but then a bunch of kids and hardly anything in the key 24-25 sort of demographic.

 

[doppleganger]

Because of the changes and regression in performance despite us having a top 6 best 22 (as per CD ratings). I mean it should be obvious...

This isn’t exactly new either. It’s been a fact for the better part of the past 3 years which I have been banging on about. It concerns me that some would see that as a source of optimism as well.

It’s akin to a Carlton supporter saying they’ll be good this year simply because they’ve been s**t in previous years. It makes no logical sense without factual support such as Longmuir will add this or Buddha Hocking this or White has taken a great steaming dump on Davoran’s processes then started afresh or Buckley has actually developed the ability to coach.

It’s all well and good to be optimistic, but I’ll just sit back with my realistic and factual view until the FD proves it otherwise.

CD ratings...

 

[Scodog10]

CD ratings...

Well it at least has a basis in reality over an approach of we’ve been s**t previously so I’m optimistic we’ll be better in 2018 because you you know we have to approve eventually. Duh

It's certainly the stance they took when they recruited Vickery...

IMO, the football world is generally 18 months behind in realising the ramifications of decisions made by clubs behind closed doors. There’s been a s**t tonne of change at Hawthorn since 2016 concluded (Vickery & O’Meara in, Lewis, Hodge & Mitchell out, 3 CEO’s, 3 presidents plus the loss of Fagan to Brisbane) and it’s 2018 that we can take stock of where they sit.

I have complete faith in us finishing ahead of them, but I can’t really determine yet how good or bad that is because they’re so far behind in the talent stakes now and don’t have the FD strength to bridge the cap. Although against that is that they still have Clarko anything’s possible while the fire still burns for him.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Well it has been four consecutive years where they have failed to win more than 7 games.

And with Gibbs and Docherty gone, I reckon it will be a 5th consecutive year where the bloooze don't win more than 7 games. Knives will be out and coming for Bolton is my tip.

But I thought emotional nourishment Bolton was the second coming.


(Yes folks, in case anyone has missed it, just don't care for Bolton; as astute observers will note, it's much more a Carlton thing. May they continue to rot on the vine.)

 

[Saintly Viewed]

I don't think you're giving enough credence to their recruiting over the last few seasons. Yes they've added a flock of GWS players, but they've also hit the draft with lots of high picks. Many of those players, much like our own kids, will be starting to hit the sweet spot. Discount them at your own peril.

The lazy SOS option of GWS scraps is going to,plague them in my view.
Yes they've had numerous low draft picks on that their future will be determined.

But sos is such an all time plodder. So lucky Carlton gave him

 

[jackcass]

The lazy SOS option of GWS scraps is going to,plague them in my view.
Yes they've had numerous low draft picks on that their future will be determined.

But sos is such an all time plodder. So lucky Carlton gave him

If nothing else it builds depth and as far as I'm aware all of Kennedy, Marchbank, Pickett, Lamb, Phillips and Plowman remain on their list from GWS. Add to that Lobbe, Lang, Mullet, O'Shea, Silvagni and Jones from other clubs and it's a nice group to support the development of Dow, O'Brien, Silvagni, SPS, Weitering, McKay, Curnow, Macreadie and Cunningham (among others).

 

[Horaceg]

I don't think you're giving enough credence to their recruiting over the last few seasons. Yes they've added a flock of GWS players, but they've also hit the draft with lots of high picks. Many of those players, much like our own kids, will be starting to hit the sweet spot. Discount them at your own peril.

In my mind they are always last and I won't say your right because it hurts but yooooooouuu oyouu miiiiiiiight miiiight bbbbbbee oooontoooo soooommmmeethhhhhhhhing. Ouch!

 

[Saintly Viewed]

If nothing else it builds depth and as far as I'm aware all of Kennedy, Marchbank, Pickett, Lamb, Phillips and Plowman remain on their list from GWS. Add to that Lobbe, Lang, Mullet, O'Shea, Silvagni and Jones from other clubs and it's a nice group to support the development of Dow, O'Brien, Silvagni, SPS, Weitering, McKay, Curnow, Macreadie and Cunningham (among others).

Be that as it may.

May their barren winter continue.
May losses abound for them.

I just can not stand them.

Funnily enough I never minded Anthony Koutifides, maybe because he barracked for us as a kid

 

[jackcass]

IMO the sweet spot is once a player has played 40-50 games. That is when they feel confident and you should be expecting consistent performance.

That is where DeGoey, Maynard, Moore are now at...as to are guys like Aish, Broomy, Langdon.

We also have guys like Grundy, Elliott, Adams, Treloar, Crisp, WHE who are next phase where they are in their prime now.

Carlton have Cripps and Weitering in that 40 game sweet spot, but then a bunch of kids and hardly anything in the key 24-25 sort of demographic.

In my opinion, the sweet spot is when a player justifies senior selection on merit ahead of more seasoned players and isn't something that equates in such a generalist way to a games tally. For example, Langdon justified his place season 1.

 

[iGNITER]

Fasolo Reid Sidebottom
Daicos Cox Elliott

I reckon that’s not too bad!

Would put Fasolo in the pocket and play Wells at half forward. Great delivery into the F50.

HF - Wells Reid Sidebottom
F - Fasolo Cox Elliott

 

[Jasper84]

If nothing else it builds depth and as far as I'm aware all of Kennedy, Marchbank, Pickett, Lamb, Phillips and Plowman remain on their list from GWS. Add to that Lobbe, Lang, Mullet, O'Shea, Silvagni and Jones from other clubs and it's a nice group to support the development of Dow, O'Brien, Silvagni, SPS, Weitering, McKay, Curnow, Macreadie and Cunningham (among others).

The thing with Carlton is that they have the mindset of "lose long enough and we will eventually build a good side". It's this mentality that has led to the backslapping and high fives when they do something mediocre like have lots of rising star nominations whilst still hanging around the bottom of the ladder.

The great thing is that even if they do put together a good list and climb off the bottom, the standard Carlton hubris will kick in and they'll do something dumb like refuse to pay Cripps more than minimum wage whilst bringing in a Josh Jenkins type on a 10 year multi million dollar contract.

 

[doppleganger]

Well it at least has a basis in reality over an approach of we’ve been s**t previously so I’m optimistic we’ll be better in 2018 because you you know we have to approve eventually. Duh

The ratings have no relevance to 2018.

They are descriptive rankings of the past few seasons, without any actual consideration of career projection to make any future predictions.

So yeah the players we have on our list right now, over the past few seasons have produced output that places us 10th. That is where we have been finishing. Slightly unlucky in not being able to get our best team on the park, but who cares what Wells did when playing for North in 2016?

So yeah pretty obvious that Sydney have been the best performed side over last few seasons, the only club to feature deep in finals every year. Even this year they finished H&A with the 3rd best % and plenty of ‘experts’ had them smashing Geelong and were basically equal fav to win the flag. It has been on the back of great performances from the same names...a strong list during that period.

But it is useless when trying to project 2018 performance.

Trying to use the CD ratings as some justification of a 2018 projection is just a silly as ur Carlton example.

The CD ratings are just rating the output of the lists over the last few seasons, us being 10th is in line with our mediocre seasons...but a predictive future tool it is not.

 

[doppleganger]

In my opinion, the sweet spot is when a player justifies senior selection on merit ahead of more seasoned players and isn't something that equates in such a generalist way to a games tally. For example, Langdon justified his place season 1.

It is more in terms of consistent impact.

C.Curnow as an example, he will no doubt do some amazing things...but like Moore for us in the past couple of years, I don’t think he is ready yet to produce consistent great football.

Guys like McKay, Cunningham, Fisher, Dow and O’Brien are even less exposed.

Sure some could surprise and have a big impact, but bringing it back to a Collingwood comparison I’d back our guys from the 2014 draft - DeGoey, Moore, Maynard - to be much more consistent and have a bigger impact for us in 2018 compared to McClarty, Kirby or J.Daicos.

 

[jackcass]

The thing with Carlton is that they have the mindset of "lose long enough and we will eventually build a good side". It's this mentality that has led to the backslapping and high fives when they do something mediocre like have lots of rising star nominations whilst still hanging around the bottom of the ladder.

The great thing is that even if they do put together a good list and climb off the bottom, the standard Carlton hubris will kick in and they'll do something dumb like refuse to pay Cripps more than minimum wage whilst bringing in a Josh Jenkins type on a 10 year multi million dollar contract.

We live in hope.

 

[No SPIN]

The ratings have no relevance to 2018.

They are descriptive rankings of the past few seasons, without any actual consideration of career projection to make any future predictions.

So yeah the players we have on our list right now, over the past few seasons have produced output that places us 10th. That is where we have been finishing. Slightly unlucky in not being able to get our best team on the park, but who cares what Wells did when playing for North in 2016?

So yeah pretty obvious that Sydney have been the best performed side over last few seasons, the only club to feature deep in finals every year. Even this year they finished H&A with the 3rd best % and plenty of ‘experts’ had them smashing Geelong and were basically equal fav to win the flag. It has been on the back of great performances from the same names...a strong list during that period.

But it is useless when trying to project 2018 performance.

Trying to use the CD ratings as some justification of a 2018 projection is just a silly as ur Carlton example.

The CD ratings are just rating the output of the lists over the last few seasons, us being 10th is in line with our mediocre seasons...but a predictive future tool it is not.

So what is a better "predictive tool" - the reality is that CD a pre-eminent in their field, and have far more credibility than any others in compiling such rankings.
They are not perfect but I would take accept their view, before subjective guess work.

 

[Thefly38]

• SYDNEY

• PORT ADELAIDE

• GEELONG

• ADELAIDE

• GWS

• COLLINGWOOD

• ESSENDON

• RICHMOND

• WESTERN BULLDOGS

• FREMANTLE

• MELBOURNE

• HAWTHORN

• ST KILDA

• WEST COAST

• BRISBANE

• GOLD COAST

• CARLTON

• NORTH MELBOURNE

 

[Thefly38]

• SYDNEY

• PORT ADELAIDE

• GEELONG

• ADELAIDE

• GWS

• COLLINGWOOD

• ESSENDON

• RICHMOND

• WESTERN BULLDOGS

• FREMANTLE

• MELBOURNE

• HAWTHORN

• ST KILDA

• WEST COAST

• BRISBANE

• GOLD COAST

• CARLTON

• NORTH MELBOURNE

I think 6 - 8 is reasonable expectation\. Very favourable draw and some luck on the injury front should have us in good stead