Prediction TOP 8 - 2018

[doppleganger]

So what is a better "predictive tool" - the reality is that CD a pre-eminent in their field, and have far more credibility than any others in compiling such rankings.
They are not perfect but I would take accept their view, before subjective guess work.

The reality is that AFL bought the controlling share in CD and drove competition into the ground. Ted marketed CD really well and now they are the one source of official stats. But Ted and his fellow start up have long since left and are on other projects now.

CD are good at describing what has happened in the game, and also solid at providing near real time translations and visitations.

Sure that is nice to know...but that is all it is, a summation of what has occurred previously.

The list rating is another retrospective view based on the last couple of seasons.

But a quick look at the ladder and results of last couple of seasons would reveal that Sydney performed the best, Richmond having a poor 2016 would see them rate mid table and Carlton have been sh1t and losing Gibbs will hurt them.

Which is just all the sooper dooper list talent rating is showing.

Talent is the wrong term, it should be production or output as that is actually what they are portraying...but obviously saying which 2018 list had the best performed players in 2016-17 is not really indicative of anything. So they run with ‘talent’ as it is sexier and sort of implies some relevance to the 2018 season.

 

[jackcass]

The reality is that AFL bought the controlling share in CD and drove competition into the ground. Ted marketed CD really well and now they are the one source of official stats. But Ted and his fellow start up have long since left and are on other projects now.

CD are good at describing what has happened in the game, and also solid at providing near real time translations and visitations.

Sure that is nice to know...but that is all it is, a summation of what has occurred previously.

The list rating is another retrospective view based on the last couple of seasons.

But a quick look at the ladder and results of last couple of seasons would reveal that Sydney performed the best, Richmond having a poor 2016 would see them rate mid table and Carlton have been sh1t and losing Gibbs will hurt them.

Which is just all the sooper dooper list talent rating is showing.

Talent is the wrong term, it should be production or output as that is actually what they are portraying...but obviously saying which 2018 list had the best performed players in 2016-17 is not really indicative of anything. So they run with ‘talent’ as it is sexier and sort of implies some relevance to the 2018 season.

So short answer, it's the best predictive tool available to us.

 

[doppleganger]

So short answer, it's the best predictive tool available to us.

Short answer is it ain’t a predictive tool.

Sydney being the best team across 16-17 according to player ratings is undisputed. CD have done the analysis for us, although a quick check of the last couple of ladders would get a similar result.

Carlton entering 2018 with the list that produced the lowest player ratings based on 2016/17 is also undisputed thanks to CD, but again a check of the ladders would reveal this too.

But trying to base 2018 performance using them is no different to someone just having the 2017 ladder open when doing their 2018 ladder prediction.

 

[jackcass]

Short answer is it ain’t a predictive tool.

Sydney being the best team across 16-17 according to player ratings is undisputed. CD have done the analysis for us, although a quick check of the last couple of ladders would get a similar result.

Carlton entering 2018 with the list that produced the lowest player ratings based on 2016/17 is also undisputed thanks to CD, but again a check of the ladders would reveal this too.

But trying to base 2018 performance using them is no different to someone just having the 2017 ladder open when doing their 2018 ladder prediction.

A simple yes would have sufficed.

 

[doppleganger]

A simple yes would have sufficed.

Yes ain’t the right answer.

CD themselves do other ratings where they track rising stars etc...they are better suited if wanting to try to support a prediction for 2018.

 

[jackcass]

Yes ain’t the right answer.

CD themselves do other ratings where they track rising stars etc...they are better suited if wanting to try to support a prediction for 2018.

Happy for you to highlight a better prediction tool. If you can't then obviously it's the best available which was the point being made initially.

 

[doppleganger]

Happy for you to highlight a better prediction tool. If you can't then obviously it's the best available which was the point being made initially.

If you are wanting to reference a prediction of the ladder for 2018, CD themselves have done this previously:

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/ho...m/news-story/1c9d3e4c2c1b1088f34d795b4cde517f

But their expected wins ladder for 2017 differed from their 2017 list ‘talent’ ladder.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...t/news-story/c6115c8844bbead594c93703ade7a068

So if you are looking for a CD prediction of 2018, seek out their 2018 season simulation...this list ‘talent’ is not their prediction of 2018.

CDs full ‘talented list’ ratings for reference:



Or if you don’t rate CD there are other sites running their own ratings (team and player) and rankings based on varying ELO systems primarily leveraging ideas that Bill James pioneered in US sports analytics. Not sure if they are onto 2018 stuff yet.

HPN, ranking software, the arc, matter of stats are a few off top of my head if you want to delve into the dark world of footy analytics.

Some head down gambling path, as if you have a small edge in rating teams and players you can make some decent coin using proper staking strategy, although some simply love footy and maths.

 

[Darkyprotector]

Gws will be a big suprise this year
Looking at the losses of quality players , Mumford , SJ, Wilson and now Williams puts a huge onus on SHAW
Heater after a great Carear has platued and with less run from the back the ball movement will be a heck of a lot slower which creates less opportunities up front
Mumford loss will expose a lack of hardness around the packs too and there suspect to HARD FOOTY
Total misconception the injury list last year coniglii and Cameron 21 games missed only , the rest bit players
Griffin gone, deledio gone, buntine, hooper all injury prone all had big injuries last year with questionable recoverys
A Harder draw will stretch the depth
Certainly WONT fall in again against us this year
No depth if lobbe goes down
Could they miss finals ?
They will be exposed this year

 

[Soups]

Gws will be a big suprise this year
Looking at the losses of quality players , Mumford , SJ, Wilson and now Williams puts a huge onus on SHAW
Heater after a great Carear has platued and with less run from the back the ball movement will be a heck of a lot slower which creates less opportunities up front
Mumford loss will expose a lack of hardness around the packs too and there suspect to HARD FOOTY
Total misconception the injury list last year coniglii and Cameron 21 games missed only , the rest bit players
Griffin gone, deledio gone, buntine, hooper all injury prone all had big injuries last year with questionable recoverys
A Harder draw will stretch the depth
Certainly WONT fall in again against us this year
No depth if lobbe goes down
Could they miss finals ?
They will be exposed this year

Was thinking the same thing this morning. Their injuries were terrible last year and if they have the same bad run of luck it might be a tough year for them with a couple players leaving plus now the long stint on the sidelines to Williams.

They do have some of their academy kids that will be looking to step up and get regular games. Setterfield looks a beauty and if fit will get regular midfield time. One to watch will be Cumming. Will slot in on the HBF looking to replace Wilson/Williams.

 

[HeathySure]

Gws will be a big suprise this year
Looking at the losses of quality players , Mumford , SJ, Wilson and now Williams puts a huge onus on SHAW
Heater after a great Carear has platued and with less run from the back the ball movement will be a heck of a lot slower which creates less opportunities up front
Mumford loss will expose a lack of hardness around the packs too and there suspect to HARD FOOTY
Total misconception the injury list last year coniglii and Cameron 21 games missed only , the rest bit players
Griffin gone, deledio gone, buntine, hooper all injury prone all had big injuries last year with questionable recoverys
A Harder draw will stretch the depth
Certainly WONT fall in again against us this year
No depth if lobbe goes down
Could they miss finals ?
They will be exposed this year

I agree mostly, I also think Cameron can’t coach but they did only have 23 or 24 to pick from at many stages so you are being a bit harsh. As for their rucks? Simpson can play. They have more depth than us


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Darkyprotector]

I agree mostly, I also think Cameron can’t coach but they did only have 23 or 24 to pick from at many stages so you are being a bit harsh. As for their rucks? Simpson can play. They have more depth than us


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I'm sure he can't coach
All teams have injuries , but their trading has been I think the worst I have ever seen its on a par with suns
Love Simpson to play often think it may be fun to watch , treacle slow , can't mark , he's no Mumford and has ZERO prescence , certainly would change the structure, less blocking, less tackling, less danger
Watched their reseys a lot last year and granted they had a few injuries
Struggled big time, questionable depth at best , Steve j , Wilson , Kennedy, Mumford and Williams
Haven't replaced patfull either still and are depleted in all positions for depth
We have players who won't play a lot for us who would for them
( Langdon, aish, sharenburg, broomhead , Blair even)
The recruitment of Griffith and deledio will close the premiership window quicker as well, what a joke that is
If the quality shown by theirNEAFL team is the depth , and is highly rated this may
Therefore Make Sam Murray look like a steal

 

[Darkyprotector]

Looking at the sun today , I calculate only 64 quality games lost
Last year not really a big impost on top end talent
Not counting guys who have left, guys who never play and guys who are just gone GRIFFITH/ DELEDIO and shouldn't have been picked up

What a waste

 

[mike123]

Looking at the sun today , I calculate only 64 quality games lost
Last year not really a big impost on top end talent
Not counting guys who have left, guys who never play and guys who are just gone GRIFFITH/ DELEDIO and shouldn't have been picked up

What a waste

Yeah I have now use why you'd bring a couple of experienced heads to a young list.

 

[Darkyprotector]

Yeah I have now use why you'd bring a couple of experienced heads to a young list.

Experience yes maybe, but they each cost a lot in trades , We went free agents
There over hyped

 

[mike123]

Experience yes maybe, but they each cost a lot in trades , We went free agents
There over hyped

A lot is a bit of a stretch especially since they got picks back for Griffen.

 

[Darkyprotector]

A lot is a bit of a stretch especially since they got picks back for Griffen.

Gws traded a ex number 1 draft pick though only 21
Huge price

 

[mike123]

Gws traded a ex number 1 draft pick though only 21
Huge price

He's barely performed the the Dogs and wouldn't get a game at GWS anyways so they lost barely anything to get a gun veteran and a top ten pick back.

 

[Jasper84]

He's barely performed the the Dogs and wouldn't get a game at GWS anyways so they lost barely anything to get a gun veteran and a top ten pick back.

Here's the best part. GWS used that pick on Caleb Marchbank, who they then later traded to Carlton for Geelong's 2017 pick, which they then successfully lost for their involvement in Gubby's hide and seek debacle!

 

[mike123]

Here's the best part. GWS used that pick on Caleb Marchbank, who they then later traded to Carlton for Geelong's 2017 pick, which they then successfully lost for their involvement in Gubby's hide and seek debacle!

That doesn't make picking up Griffen a bad desecion.

 

[Darkyprotector]

He's barely performed the the Dogs and wouldn't get a game at GWS anyways so they lost barely anything to get a gun veteran and a top ten pick back.

Won a flag for them, so they say
Ryan injured , gone ( looked to salary dump him last year )
Very bad trade , what 9 games or so , high price

 

[mike123]

Won a flag for them, so they say
Ryan injured , gone ( looked to salary dump him last year )
Very bad trade , what 9 games or so , high price

I suppose he could helped GWS' Neade side to premiership of stayed. Yeah nah your just dramatising mate.

 

[JB1975]

JB LADDER PREDICTION: REVISION 1
This revised ladder takes account of (a) the latest setback to the GWS run from half back and (b) the current orthodoxy of placing predicted teams in bold font. These revisions have also benefited from sobriety.

1. PORT ADELAIDE: Even un-drunk, I am charmed by the Watts factor. They'll play in the 2018 GF, only to lose the game and their dignity.
2. SYDNEY: They've just lost some weight in the saddlebags (sorry Kurt), and they'll start and end better than in 2017. Premiers 2018.
3. RICHMOND: To lose in a spiteful prelim, but will do enough to prove that they're a good team.
4. ESSENDON: Not a great midfield, but after Daniher won the Mark of the Year and Hird was 'redeemed' by the AFL their self-belief will be high.
5. GWS: Still an abundance of talent, but missing out on the top four will be the stir they need to find a replacement for Leon Cameron.
6. ADELAIDE: I had them at 11 in my last ladder, which even then felt a bit silly...but I still think they'll drop.
7. MELBOURNE: Being lampooned as a bunch of pea-hearts will have an oddly galvanising effect. A bit of the Watt's factor here, too.
8. GEELONG: I still think they're sliding, not enough support talent, but will only slide so far.

Only the top six of the above feel assured; teams from 7-13 all seem like they could just make it or miss out.

9. WESTERN BULLDOGS: I'm expecting some Bulldog bounce, but they'll just miss out and opposition supporters will begin to like them again.
10. HAWTHORN: It might take longer for opposition supporters to like Hawthorn again. The Hawks will be competitive, but not quite enough.
11. COLLINGWOOD: As for the Hawks above, except I think we're building towards 2019. Is there an echo in here?
12. FREMANTLE: Nice place, horrible club colours and song. They'll do better than last year.
13. ST KILDA: An unconvincing midfield, but unlike Essendon I don't think their list makes up for it in other parts of the ground.
14. GOLD COAST: There'll be some good vibes for the new coach, enough to win an extra game or two.
15. WEST COAST EAGLES: They'll drop a bit. Maybe not to 15th, but that's what revised ladder predictions are for.
16. BRISBANE: The Bears could bolt, but for now I like the look of them at 16th.
17: NORTH MELBOURNE: Sometimes you don't know you're in the Dark Ages until they're over. I reckon Kangaroos supporters will know as it happens.
18: CARLTON: The Blues to improve, but one more wooden spoon would be much appreciated. Ta.

 

[10571z]

Surely Bulldogs and Richmond have shown how quickly a list can turn around.

Guys like Degoey, Maynard, Phillips, Langdon, WHE, moore, smith, aish are where the improvement will come from. They need to take the next step.

Keep guys like Reid, Elliot and wells on the park and anything is possible.

Rewatch games against adelaide (first half), melbourne, west coast last year and see how good we can play.

 

[JB1975]

Surely Bulldogs and Richmond have shown how quickly a list can turn around.

Guys like Degoey, Maynard, Phillips, Langdon, WHE, moore, smith, aish are where the improvement will come from. They need to take the next step.

Keep guys like Reid, Elliot and wells on the park and anything is possible.

Rewatch games against adelaide (first half), melbourne, west coast last year and see how good we can play.

For me, the story if players like Moore, Maynard, JDG, and Scharenberg don't improve then there's a fair chance we'll go backwards. Similarly, if we can't get sustained service from our best players because of injury, then we can easily go backwards. The evenness of the competition means that I'd be unsurprised if we go in either direction, but I'd be very surprised if we go a long way up or down the ladder.

The Bulldogs and Tigers might give us some encouragement, but only up to a point. In the three years before they won a premiership the Bulldogs finished:
- 2013 = 15 (8/14)
- 2014 = 14 (7/15)
- 2015 = 6 (14/8)

The Tigers finished:
- 2014 = 8 (12/10)
- 2015 = 5 (15/7)
- 2016 = 13 (8/14)

The Pies have finished:
- 2015 = 12 (10/12)
- 2016 = 12 (9/13)
- 2017 = 13 (9/12/1)

This sort of stuff can be read in any number of ways, but my reading is that the Tigers have been vastly more competitive over recent years, and --the calamitous year of 2016 aside-- their form hasn't come from nowhere. Similarly, the Bulldogs were good the year before they won the flag. Our form, on the other hand, has been depressingly consistent.

 

[Countrypie]

For me, the story if players like Moore, Maynard, JDG, and Scharenberg don't improve then there's a fair chance we'll go backwards. Similarly, if we can't get sustained service from our best players because of injury, then we can easily go backwards. The evenness of the competition means that I'd be unsurprised if we go in either direction, but I'd be very surprised if we go a long way up or down the ladder.

The Bulldogs and Tigers might give us some encouragement, but only up to a point. In the three years before they won a premiership the Bulldogs finished:
- 2013 = 15 (8/14)
- 2014 = 14 (7/15)
- 2015 = 6 (14/8)

The Tigers finished:
- 2014 = 8 (12/10)
- 2015 = 5 (15/7)
- 2016 = 13 (8/14)

The Pies have finished:
- 2015 = 12 (10/12)
- 2016 = 12 (9/13)
- 2017 = 13 (9/12/1)

This sort of stuff can be read in any number of ways, but my reading is that the Tigers have been vastly more competitive over recent years, and --the calamitous year of 2016 aside-- their form hasn't come from nowhere. Similarly, the Bulldogs were good the year before they won the flag. Our form, on the other hand, has been depressingly consistent.

True if the ladder is a fair indication of performance. But when ladder position can be inflated by as much as 3 -4 places by "luck of the draw" it''s a really hard argument to make. For mine, anything is possible - literally ANYTHING depending on the draw, injuries to us and others, the odd piece of umpiring luck and that intangible called cohesion.
For some time now, it has been evident to me that there are as many as 14 teams that are capable of very good performances - similarly all of those teams are vulnerable to the wheels falling off. Confidence and closeness can take teams a lot further than it could even three years ago.
THe AFL has contrived an artificial competition that guarantees a closeness in performance. We could ride the wave or fall in a heap. Time will tell