Top Fluc

[carltonblue]

Daytripper - yes it does take 30seconds a minute or so to update the pools and it isnt updated dynamically.
BUT
Just because a bet is placed 5mins and 20 seconds prior to race time and isnt updated to the pools for the 5minute mark does not mean that after the race the TAB shows this bet in the pools at the 5minute mark. This bet, like it did before the race, can be seen influencing the pools at the 4minute mark or whenever the next call is.

In this situation. The pools went DOWN. So you certaintly cant say "TAB doesnt update dynamically."

Schmuta, my only assumption is that a large bet has been cancelled in the last 10seconds or so before the race.

One reason I see for this is possibly a large pro punter finds races with small pools and a good thing. He goes heavy on the good thing, hoping to make it too short so the average punter takes on the 2nd or 3rd favourite who are, as a result of the pro punters large bet are overpriced. However in the case the pro punter has possibly thought he wasnt getting the odds he hoped for and cancelled the bet.

Or a $100 bet was recorded as $1000 maybe.

 

[Daytripper]

Daytripper - yes it does take 30seconds a minute or so to update the pools and it isnt updated dynamically.
BUT
Just because a bet is placed 5mins and 20 seconds prior to race time and isnt updated to the pools for the 5minute mark does not mean that after the race the TAB shows this bet in the pools at the 5minute mark. This bet, like it did before the race, can be seen influencing the pools at the 4minute mark or whenever the next call is.

In this situation. The pools went DOWN. So you certaintly cant say "TAB doesnt update dynamically."

Schmuta, my only assumption is that a large bet has been cancelled in the last 10seconds or so before the race.

One reason I see for this is possibly a large pro punter finds races with small pools and a good thing. He goes heavy on the good thing, hoping to make it too short so the average punter takes on the 2nd or 3rd favourite who are, as a result of the pro punters large bet are overpriced. However in the case the pro punter has possibly thought he wasnt getting the odds he hoped for and cancelled the bet.

Or a $100 bet was recorded as $1000 maybe.

But there has been no evidence presented that the pool was reduced - only that the price has changed.

Until such time, its just a simple matter of either :
a) punters backing other dogs enabling the favourite to drift OR
b) a phone bet being initially incorrectly recorded and then corrected after the bet was called back to the punter.

 

[Schmucta]

Daytripper - yes it does take 30seconds a minute or so to update the pools and it isnt updated dynamically.
BUT
Just because a bet is placed 5mins and 20 seconds prior to race time and isnt updated to the pools for the 5minute mark does not mean that after the race the TAB shows this bet in the pools at the 5minute mark. This bet, like it did before the race, can be seen influencing the pools at the 4minute mark or whenever the next call is.

In this situation. The pools went DOWN. So you certaintly cant say "TAB doesnt update dynamically."

Schmuta, my only assumption is that a large bet has been cancelled in the last 10seconds or so before the race.

One reason I see for this is possibly a large pro punter finds races with small pools and a good thing. He goes heavy on the good thing, hoping to make it too short so the average punter takes on the 2nd or 3rd favourite who are, as a result of the pro punters large bet are overpriced. However in the case the pro punter has possibly thought he wasnt getting the odds he hoped for and cancelled the bet.

Or a $100 bet was recorded as $1000 maybe.

Yeah, I was thinking that, but then I also thought it had to have been a bet placed before the 5 min to jump mark, because the dog was paying 1.70, not the 3.70. The only way it could have been paying 3.70 with 5 mins to go is if the bet was on, and cancelled just before the race to manipulate the odds of that time.

This then ,makes me wonder how anyone can cancel a bet made early, so late. If you want to cancel a bet you have to do it immediately.

All I know is what I saw, and how hell can Unitab expect us to believe the pool for the biggest race of the night was only half the size of any other race leading up to it. The numbers just do not add up, including what I saw.

 

[carltonblue]

But there has been no evidence presented that the pool was reduced - only that the price has changed.

Until such time, its just a simple matter of either :
a) punters backing other dogs enabling the favourite to drift OR
b) a phone bet being initially incorrectly recorded and then corrected after the bet was called back to the punter.

a) just believe the pool changed, why would smuchta lie?
b) bet would not have been added to the pool until at least phone call had ended.

 

[Daytripper]

a) just believe the pool changed, why would smuchta lie?

Nowhere has he said the pool reduced from one figure to another figure. Only that the price changed. Prices change all the time. Pools never reduce (unless an error has been made by the operator - see below).

b) bet would not have been added to the pool until at least phone call had ended.

The wager is entered immediately however bets can be cancelled if the operator has made a mistake. See rule 8.3.
http://nettab.custhelp.com/cgi-bin/nettab.cfg/php/enduser/std_adp.php?p_faqid=299

 

[Schmucta]

Nowhere has he said the pool reduced from one figure to another figure. Only that the price changed. Prices change all the time. Pools never reduce (unless an error has been made by the operator - see below).

The wager is entered immediately however bets can be cancelled if the operator has made a mistake. See rule 8.3.
http://nettab.custhelp.com/cgi-bin/nettab.cfg/php/enduser/std_adp.php?p_faqid=299

How can it be other dogs being bet on that made it drift, when the tab says it did not drift, that it actually shortened?

And how do you explain the size of the pool at the end of the race?

I did not see the pool change, I did however see the 5 mins to go price alter after the event.

I have asked numerous times and yet you have not answered. How does the tab have the dog at 3.70 with 5 mins to go, when the dog was never out of the red, the whole entire time??

 

[Daytripper]

How can it be other dogs being bet on that made it drift, when the tab says it did not drift, that it actually shortened?

And how do you explain the size of the pool at the end of the race?

I did not see the pool change, I did however see the 5 mins to go price alter after the event.

I have asked numerous times and yet you have not answered. How does the tab have the dog at 3.70 with 5 mins to go, when the dog was never out of the red, the whole entire time??

FFS, Understand you are betting into tiny, tiny pools. Strange things can happen with the betting. You really need to get your head around this.

Its not the Melbourne Cup where there is 10 million in the pool and any wagers will have limited impact on betting.

A $20 bet into a $500 pool can alter things dramatically.

If you've got a query waste the ombudsman's time. I'm sick of wasting my time explaining something so simple.

And how do you see the 5 minutes to go betting after the event ?

 

[Schmucta]

FFS, Understand you are betting into tiny, tiny pools. Strange things can happen with the betting. You really need to get your head around this.

Its not the Melbourne Cup where there is 10 million in the pool and any wagers will have limited impact on betting.

A $20 bet into a $500 pool can alter things dramatically.

If you've got a query waste the ombudsman's time. I'm sick of wasting my time explaining something so simple.

And how do you see the 5 minutes to go betting after the event ?

Understand I am betting into tiny pools? I do understand it, and once again it has nothing to do with this instance, you need to comprehend that.

If there was a million in the pool or a grand, it makes no difference that the 5 mins to go price was changed after the event. Yet you still give me no reason for this other than the pools changed with bets going in and such. That means nothing, unless a bet has been cancelled, due to the fact that the recorded 5 mins to go price was never available, until AFTER the event.

Go to the Unitab site, they have a price that is 5 mins prior to jump, so you can see shorteners and the like.

This dog was never out of the red throughout betting. I know this because I was watching the price fluctuations. The POOL as you like to think means nothing, it is the price that I was watching.

Now they tab wants us to believe that at 5 mins to go the dog was paying 3.70. I can categorically say this WASNOT THE CASE. it was 1.70 to 1.90 at every update.

If the 5 mins to go price was 1.70 as recorded on the tab, then yes, the dog eased due to other bets placed on the other 7 runners. THIS WAS NOT THE CASE.

No need to reply again as you just don't seem to get it.

Sale race 8 October 18th 2009, if you care to check.

Now that we have established that a bet was cancelled, how is someone able to cancel a bet made well before the event, either as the dogs start, or after they start.

That is the question that needs to be answered.

 

[Daytripper]

^^^^

The pool means EVERYTHING. It is how dividends are derived. It goes to the very heart of your question.

How you can fail to grasp this is mind boggling ?

There are a myriad of explanations from :
a) bets on other runners.
b) cancelled bets
c) incorrect data entry from the operator
d) the 5 minutes pre race odds being wrong post race.

None of them remotely suspicious.

 

[Schmucta]

^^^^

The pool means EVERYTHING. It is how dividends are derived. It goes to the very heart of your question.

How you can fail to grasp this is mind boggling ?

There are a myriad of explanations from :
a) bets on other runners.
b) cancelled bets
c) incorrect data entry from the operator
d) the 5 minutes pre race odds being wrong post race.

None of them remotely suspicious.

So how has bets on other runners made the price change from 1.70 5 mins to go, to 3.70 5 mins to go??

Cancelled bets arent suspicious on an odds on runner that then loses, and is then declared at a starting dividend of 3.20, when it was never ever available?

The 5 mins odds being wrong after the race, so who are they trying to fool? I'd say it would be calculated by a computer, how is it wrong, unless it has been manually changed, and nothing suspicious still?

The fact that you can't see that after the race and the 5 mins price before the race are the main parts to this is the mind boggling part. The pool has no bearing on changing the 5 min to go price, it's the price that it was showing 5 mins to go, regardless of what was in the pool. Like I said the pool is negligent when looking at the fact that the prices have changed in this case.

 

[Daytripper]

So how has bets on other runners made the price change from 1.70 5 mins to go, to 3.70 5 mins to go??

Cancelled bets arent suspicious on an odds on runner that then loses, and is then declared at a starting dividend of 3.20, when it was never ever available?

The 5 mins odds being wrong after the race, so who are they trying to fool? I'd say it would be calculated by a computer, how is it wrong, unless it has been manually changed, and nothing suspicious still?

The fact that you can't see that after the race and the 5 mins price before the race are the main parts to this is the mind boggling part. The pool has no bearing on changing the 5 min to go price, it's the price that it was showing 5 mins to go, regardless of what was in the pool. Like I said the pool is negligent when looking at the fact that the prices have changed in this case.

Mate, if you are studying 5 minute pre race betting fluctuations on Sunday twilight dogs, you need to rethink your whole betting strategy.

Those approx divs mean nothing because there is nothing in the pool. And if you asked the question to the ombudsman or the relevant TAB then I'm sure they will give you exactly the same answer.

There might be two professional punters operating on these meetings in the whole state. Most of the other money comes from drunken desparates in Pub-Tabs. There is no vast conspiracy here.

 

[Schmucta]

Mate, if you are studying 5 minute pre race betting fluctuations on Sunday twilight dogs, you need to rethink your whole betting strategy.

Those approx divs mean nothing because there is nothing in the pool. And if you asked the question to the ombudsman or the relevant TAB then I'm sure they will give you exactly the same answer.

There might be two professional punters operating on these meetings in the whole state. Most of the other money comes from drunken desparates in Pub-Tabs. There is no vast conspiracy here.

Like I have told you from the start, and your inability to see this is starting to irk me, the pool with 5 mins to go means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. You know why it means nothing? Because I know what the PRICE was, and it could be this price with a hundred grand in the pool and it could be this price with 400 dollars in the pool.

This price is not the price that is recorded on the tab site. This can only change for two reasons, a) they are manipulating it after the race, or b) there was a bet/bets cancelled.

But you keep banging on about the pool.

And I was not studying the 5 min approx dividends, merely just watching the price of my dog against the favourite, was unaware that this is somehow a betting strategy and I need to give it away.

If you have nothing further to add because you just don't get it, then piss off.

 

[Oaksnaf]

If I wanted your opinion, I would tell you it!

Are the pools on Unitab that are published as 5 mins prior to start, really 5 mins prior to start. Are they published as the TRUE odds of that runner at that time, rather than showing the DELAYED odds of that runner at that time?

One minute is a long time in punting and there are plenty of bets that would have been processed at that exact moment.

Even if we go with the theory that there was a bet cancelled after the fact. $1600 is hardly anything to those punters who are investing "professionally" (as we like to assume) into the markets.

The real money is on-track and online bookies. Betfair doesn't offer a great deal on Sale. Unless there is a red hot favourite.


What is the date/race of this event Schumta??

 

[Schmucta]

If I wanted your opinion, I would tell you it!

Are the pools on Unitab that are published as 5 mins prior to start, really 5 mins prior to start. Are they published as the TRUE odds of that runner at that time, rather than showing the DELAYED odds of that runner at that time?

One minute is a long time in punting and there are plenty of bets that would have been processed at that exact moment.

Even if we go with the theory that there was a bet cancelled after the fact. $1600 is hardly anything to those punters who are investing "professionally" (as we like to assume) into the markets.

The real money is on-track and online bookies. Betfair doesn't offer a great deal on Sale. Unless there is a red hot favourite.


What is the date/race of this event Schumta??

sale race 8 oct 18 2009.

The results pages show a price that is 5 mins before the race time. Having said that it could be three mins, it could be 10 mins, prior, it matters little, as the dog was never ever out of the red, at any stage of betting. I placed my bet on a ticket and was watching skychannel the whole time, the winner was never less than 9.00 and the red dog was never out of the red, even showing 1.90 as the green light went on. What made me look further was after the event the dividend went up as 9.40, then when the all clear came through, it was back to the resulted 6.40. delving deeper you can see the low pool compared to the other races, it all smells fishy to me.

The red resulted at 2.10 and 2.20 on the other two totes.

 

[Oaksnaf]

Well thats a shame, I just went through the video archives and found that there is nothing for Sale 18th October.

But your right. Mr Moorooduc. Paragon Patch. Cracked Ice..... 3k WIN POOL.

They have either posted the wrong dividends as final or something has gone a miss.

Did you have any winning tickets WIN/PLACE that were matched at the price Unitab has posted?

Because 3k WIN POOL for that is incorrect. And I would be suprised if they were the dividends paid out.

 

[carltonblue]

Nowhere has he said the pool reduced from one figure to another figure. Only that the price changed. Prices change all the time. Pools never reduce (unless an error has been made by the operator - see below).

The wager is entered immediately however bets can be cancelled if the operator has made a mistake. See rule 8.3.
http://nettab.custhelp.com/cgi-bin/nettab.cfg/php/enduser/std_adp.php?p_faqid=299

No need for me to read the rule because the bets may have been placed but it wouldnt have been added to the pool because, as you know and told Schmutta, the pools do not update dynamically.

 

[Schmucta]

Well thats a shame, I just went through the video archives and found that there is nothing for Sale 18th October.

But your right. Mr Moorooduc. Paragon Patch. Cracked Ice..... 3k WIN POOL.

They have either posted the wrong dividends as final or something has gone a miss.

Did you have any winning tickets WIN/PLACE that were matched at the price Unitab has posted?

Because 3k WIN POOL for that is incorrect. And I would be suprised if they were the dividends paid out.

They defintely paid out on those odds. I had a bet on a ticket, god knows where that is now, i don't keep old tickets. I collected at the $6.40.

 

[Oaksnaf]

That makes it more interesting.

 

[Daytripper]

Well thats a shame, I just went through the video archives and found that there is nothing for Sale 18th October.

But your right. Mr Moorooduc. Paragon Patch. Cracked Ice..... 3k WIN POOL.

They have either posted the wrong dividends as final or something has gone a miss.

Did you have any winning tickets WIN/PLACE that were matched at the price Unitab has posted?

Because 3k WIN POOL for that is incorrect. And I would be suprised if they were the dividends paid out.

Sale Greys tonight.

R10, Unitab - Final pool - 3.5K
R9, Unitab - Final pool - 7.5K
R5 & R6 - Final pool - 5.5K

Its hardly unusual.

 

[Daytripper]

The real money is on-track and online bookies. Betfair doesn't offer a great deal on Sale. Unless there is a red hot favourite.

LOL - If there was a bookie at Sale I'd be surprised if he held $200 on each race. And Betfair is dead on the twilights. Even the bots can't get set......

 

[Oaksnaf]

LOL - If there was a bookie at Sale I'd be surprised if he held $200 on each race. And Betfair is dead on the twilights. Even the bots can't get set......

I haven't been to Sale yet. It's a fair hike. But NON-TAB greyhound events hold more than $200 a race with their on-course bookie. And for the tracks that I do visit, they certainly hold more. I am willing to say be surprised.......

You can manipulate the BOTS when there isn't much money at play.......



Those pool sizes do happen on Unitab. No disputing that. But a quality race such as the one being discussed, it is hard to see it being ignored by the punters of QLD.


Unless we can have a video of the event with the tote screens leading up to the start, then we don't have anything to debate really. Unfortunately I don't have that. Nor does The Watchdog archives.So I'll do some more hunting.

 

[Daytripper]

I haven't been to Sale yet. It's a fair hike. But NON-TAB greyhound events hold more than $200 a race with their on-course bookie. And for the tracks that I do visit, they certainly hold more. I am willing to say be surprised.......

Mate, I've worked at Hanging Rock New Years Day in a crowd of 5000 people with 10 bookies on course and we have sometimes not held more than $300 on a race. If someone has $200 on a horse at $3.00 it gets wound in to $1.80 and the official flucs show a betting plunge.

The only people at Sale would be the trainers, a few owners and 20 or so locals.

You over-estimate the ability of the average punter and bookie.

 

[carltonblue]

why would 10 bookies show up for that. bookies talk, bookies know, and bookies know where to go to get $$

 

[Daytripper]

why would 10 bookies show up for that. bookies talk, bookies know, and bookies know where to go to get $$

Its usually the bookies who are trying to get their full licence. In order to get one you have to work 15 provincial meetings and thereby demonstrate to RV that you are a fit and proper person to get that licence.

Hanging Rock on New Years Day is a good one as you get a decent crowd and you write a few bets - mainly of the $1 e/w variety......

Then you have some of the old timers who like to go along for the social occasion and keep their hand in.

I don't think anyone who works there expects to go home having 'filled up'.